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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Barnsey

  1. What'll really get your blood pressure up...BoE THEMSELVES now admitting their low interest policy has caused this bubble, AND the previous housing bubble. In full agreement with Ian Mulheirn's research: https://bankunderground.co.uk/2019/09/06/houses-are-assets-not-goods-taking-the-theory-to-the-uk-data/ Crucial question is, why release these opinions right now as house prices level off? Have they figured out that all the excess new build supply will contribute to a downward price shock to come next year, and therefore aims to give the homebuilders political headroom to stop construction, at least temporarily?
  2. + landlords on 2 year fixed rate mortgages to avoid stamp duty hike now on SVR due to bank now having to assess entire portfolio affordability
  3. So RBS/Natwest amending their terms and conditions to allow them to "help" customers in persistent debt by freezing their spending, allowing them to focus on repayment. This is going to have significant ramifications in the looming recession. A much quicker, vicious reigning in of debt than the last downturn. Many more banks to join in I'm sure leading up to the new FCA rules in September. 3 million to be affected. https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2018/jun/02/credit-card-spending-terms-conditions-rbs-natwest
  4. If anyone has any purchases to return to House of Fraser I'd recommend doing so at doors open tomorrow morning...
  5. Work colleague has just moved into a £377k new build by Miller Homes, and it is just shockingly poor, he's got quite the epic list of complaints including windows falling out, light fittings falling out, kitchen cupboards all squint, leak in kitchen now causing mould, damaged shower tray, very low water pressure, poorly finished tiling and walls, back garden is just uneven ballast, so many items not matching order or missing, telephone sockets unusable as not fitted properly... the list really does go on and on. He reckons he's also going to have to go down the legal route.
  6. Sweden. 140 year mortgages a thing of the past, now limited to just 105 years. https://www.thelocal.se/20160324/sweden-limits-mortgage-loans-to-105-years
  7. Mark Carney signals 'hard' Brexit could see Bank of England print more money https://news.sky.com/story/mark-carney-signals-hard-brexit-could-see-bank-of-england-print-more-money-11384434
  8. Only a 10% fall over 3 years, oh well might as well give up now
  9. Yet another article along the same lines as @durhamborn , looming liquidity crisis: http://www.mauldineconomics.com/editorial/a-liquidity-crisis-of-biblical-proportions-is-upon-us/#
  10. Indeed, and the not-so-young. especially in the SE. It's easy for us to critique on here but most of them feel as though they have no other choice. I imagine these things are planned so far in advance due to our insanely restrictive planning procedures that, despite economic forecasts, homebuilders (just like their HTB customers) are guilty of getting a little caught up in the good times. For those painfully holding off long term and continuing to fund landlord early retirement lifestyles (like me), this extra stock is most welcome.
  11. Exactly! The last recession claimed Woolworths, MFI, Zavvi, Focus DIY, C&A, JJB, Comet among others, over a 4 year period. As far as I remember, only Dixons went under prior to the recession but that just became Currys Digital anyway. Yet during the "as good as it gets for the economy" times recently, we've already lost BHS, Staples, Toys 'r' Us and Maplins, and we're not even in recession yet, nevermind the mass branch closures of numerous restaurant chains to try and "save one's bacon"
  12. Thing is, many of the STC listings have reappeared 2-3 months later back up for sale at the same or a reduced price, so there's something afoot! This is Berkshire.
  13. What I do love Rightmove for, in conjunction with Property Tracker for Chrome, is really closely tracking specific areas I'm interested in, adding reductions and deleting sold/withdrawn properties daily and seeing how things move, or not. Early on my favourites list was hovering around 50, with listings and sales fairly balanced. Now it's at 235. Been very cathartic in a way to see things slowing through this, rather than pushing back what media sources or other people boast. Lots of relisting trickery going on too.
  14. Experts say Lee is not alone. One of Britain's biggest mortgage brokers, John Charcol, has seen the number of so-called down valuations — where a lender values a property at less than a buyer believes it is worth — double over the past year. Nick Morrey, product technical manager at the firm, says that staff are dealing with 20 to 30 cases of down valuations each month, with lenders stating that houses are worth up to £100,000 less than their owners believed. And so it begins...
  15. Really interesting article thanks for posting, helpful to see past 5 year HPI by local authority, some staggering %'s. Interest on the equity loan increases each year, so you could end up adding hundreds to your bill over time. For that reason, many homeowners opt to remortgage their property, pay off the equity loan and continue paying mortgage interest at the new rate. In fact, most banks require you to pay off the equity loan in order to remortgage. But this is usually only possible if your property has grown significantly in value, meaning slow price growth could be a stumbling block. No mention of these properties being overvalued in the first place, essentially in negative equity before any sizeable falls!
  16. Momentum investing can work for some when things are on the up, I'd get a little nervous about doing it right now at potentially near the top/recession as it can be very cruel on the way down. If kept as a modest part of your overall portfolio strategy then worth a go, low cost funds are easiest, 2 or 3 best performing funds over the past year, which haven't seen a negative return in the past 5 at least, redo every 6-12 months. On another note, interesting to see the sharp decline in green energy investment in the past year. Japan now in contraction, widespread EM rout, North Korea turbulence returning, US auto payments delinquency rate highest since 1996, Italy drama, risk returning in a big way to the US subprime mortgage market. Things coming back together.
  17. https://northmantrader.com/2018/05/15/the-tax-cut-recession/ Well worth a read, from Sven Henrich @northmantrader on Twitter
  18. What a surprise! Rents falling too outside of the SE bubble
  19. That would suggest they're already in recession or extremely close, whereas many are predicting early 2020, I wonder which is on the money.
  20. I wouldn't bother guessing as they'll probably read this forum and use it
  21. So if payments can't be maintained when the crash comes, two houses could be sold rather than just the one, bonus! Should help bring prices down that much faster. Agree that this is a solid sign the top is well and truly here, disagree that the article is screaming panic buy given it's bearish title.
  22. 100% mortgages that crashed the economy are BACK: Barclays and the Post Office are among big lenders offering the loan deals to attract first time buyers without a deposit http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5719549/amp/Remember-100-mortgages-crashed-economy-Theyre-back.html
  23. Of most significance is the report of first falls in the SW since 2013, where much of the SE bubble profit money headed, rippling inwards just as it did outwards, eyes on other mid priced regions next.
  24. Indeed, with the prospect of companies using the opportunity to accelerate automation where possible. Finland is now reviewing "better ways" of issuing benefits to those out of work after their failed universal basic income trial so this is a pipe dream for those that will be affected in the next downturn. Yes, corporate debt and leverage is the bigger issue this time, but inevitably that will affect those in the jobs provided. 6000 to go at BT, 1400 potential job losses at Calvetron Brands, and 800 to go at the Virgin Media call centre in Swansea. If we don't get our IR hike this month, we may not see another until we're out the other end of what's to come. Early 2020 recession for the US (apparently) but we could be staring it in the face come Winter.
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