AD14 Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 I love these 'lagging indicators'. This job is nearly finished. Detailed design started last April. After a year long FEED. They are midway through actual construction..... To be complete and commissioned end 2016. https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/103213/amec-foster-wheeler-awarded-125million-bp-grangemouth-contract/ BP must have finally given them the PO. Q the grandiose headlines.... One of the projects I worked on made the news almost a year after we had been awarded the detailed design. How come some projects are reported on so late by the media? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quine Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Fair play to them, they'll pocket a lot of cash even if they achieve 75% of the asking price + taxes. How do you know that? Do you know what they paid for them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palangot Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 On those flats for sale - I might put a cheeky bid in at 15% over the asking price. Am I being savvy enough? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 (edited) Some bits and pieces. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3954016-anadarko-slashes-80-percent-onshore-rigs-plans-lay-95-percent-contractors Anadarko Slashes 80% Of Onshore Rigs, Plans To Lay Off 95% Of Contractors http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/broker-spotlight/24409/petrofac-downgraded-as-citi-sees-anaemic-contract-outlook-24409.html? Petrofac downgraded as Citi sees ‘anaemic’ contract outlook http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/1425902/too-many-fish-in-north-sea-pond? Consolidation is reportedly on the cards for the North Sea offshore vessel sector as a raft of cash-strapped shipowners struggle to meet obligations on huge debts amid a market slump, making it ripe for restructuring, according to industry players. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-03/what-propping-oil? This Is What Is Propping Up Oil Thanks to the massive short-squeeze, Oil ETFs are currently net long 272k lots of oil, which is equal to 56% of the front month open-interest in futures, putting an unnatural floor on the market. Watching the short-positioning continue to fall will provide some with evidence that this artificial bounce is over. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canadian-natural-profit-plunges-89-on-weak-oil-and-gas-prices/article29007485/ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd slashed its capital expenditure plan for 2016 and targeted further cuts in 2017 and 2018 in response to the slump in oil prices which has hit its profits. Canada’s second-biggest oil and gas producer reported an 89 per cent fall in quarterly profit and lowered its estimated 2016 capital spending to between $3.5-billion ($2.6-billion U.S.) and $3.9-billion, from $4.5-billion to $5-billion previously. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35715389 Five-Quarter North Sea gas extraction firm collapses https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/103256/north-sea-industry-drowning-in-tsunami-of-supply-mp-warns/ North Sea industry drowning in “tsunami of supply”, MP warns http://www.osjonline.com/news/view,offshore-wind-will-provide-significant-opportunities-in-southern-north-sea_42081.htm Offshore wind will provide ‘significant opportunities’ in southern North Sea EDIT: house stuff. Yeah. Edited March 4, 2016 by cashinmattress Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babo456 Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Interesting reading cashinmattress thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reverand_cat Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Another example of why Aberdeen is about to crash... Rental reduced to £1100pcm. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-53080150.html If you were to transact at today's "value" it is over £400k... (Seeing as supposedly prices have hardly dipped) http://m.zoopla.co.uk/property/4-argyll-crescent/aberdeen/ab25-2hw/110806 That's a yield of around 3%! Let's say you had a mortgage of £350k on this, you'd be over £1600 a month in repayments. Buying is cheaper than renting?? No! Who the f#£& is buying in at current market values??? They must be nuts when rentals are so much cheaper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPin Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 I'm not in Aberdeen any more, and nor are a lot of the people I used to work with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reverand_cat Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 What is even madder, is that even if you could buy it at 2006 price, you still be cheaper renting! Buy for 10% deposit on £310k So let's say £280k mortgage repayment over 25 years at 3%. That's still over £1300 a month! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reverand_cat Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 If this is the current market rent for places like this, then an over 30% price crash is needed before prices are back in line with rental / demand. And that is if rentals don't even dip further... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 (edited) And that is if rentals don't even dip further... Some colleagues who are contractors in the city have been saavy and knocked their rents down by many hundreds of pounds to just cover the mortgage payment of the LL. I believe the LL's are newbies who are on high LTV's BTLs. Anybody who doesn't demand rents drop by huge margins (is an idiot) is justified to walk, and oh boy, do they have a ton of ace properties to choose from which are about 95% guaranteed to be cheaper. Edited March 4, 2016 by cashinmattress Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reverand_cat Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Some colleagues who are contractors in the city have been saavy and knocked their rents down by many hundreds of pounds to just cover the mortgage payment of the LL. I believe the LL's are newbies who are on high LTV's BTLs. Anybody who doesn't demand rents drop by huge margins (is an idiot) is justified to walk, and oh boy, do they have a ton of ace properties to choose from which are about 95% guaranteed to be cheaper. I still know some people who are hesitant to negotiate with landlords because "they can turf you out". I guess years of being ripped off gives you a sort of Stockholm syndrome. Absolutely agree that there are really good deals to be made. Buying at the moment is for absolute mugs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 I still know some people who are hesitant to negotiate with landlords because "they can turf you out". Buying at the moment is for absolute mugs. Yeah. But boy are they mugs. FYI: sh1t's getting real out there. Once oil rich states are falling down... HARD. http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/7600/norway-made-first-withdrawal-from-oil-fund-in-january/ Norway Made First Withdrawal From Oil Fund in January With its economy weakening, Norway's government made its first withdrawal from the country's $826 billion (£582.5 billion) sovereign wealth fund in January, 20 years after first depositing cash from its vast oil sector into the account, the finance ministry said. The finance ministry did not confirm details of the withdrawal, but newspaper Dagens Naeringsliv said 6.7 billion Norwegian crowns (£551 million) had been extracted to pay for public spending. http://time.com/4247401/venezuela-opposition-oas-maduro-political-crisis/ Venezuela’s Opposition Is Calling for Foreign Intervention in the Country’s Political Crisis http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3476051/Social-curse-huge-personal-debt-raises-worries-wealthy-Qatar.html Credit cards on the limit, huge bank borrowings and a struggle to repay loans: these are the personal debt problems of some Qataris despite the Gulf state's reputation for fabulous wealth. Many are borrowing enormous sums from local banks to finance lifestyles they cannot afford, according to a study by Qatar University. http://www.cityam.com/235999/dallas-fed-warns-oil-market-wont-stabilise-this-year Dallas Fed warns oil market won't stabilise this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 I reckon the one on the Castlegate might make a decent backpackers' hostel. Charging < £20 for a bunk would look quite tempting for a self employed worker just up for a couple of days at a time and looking to keep a lid on costs compared with a Premier Inn or Travelodge. Weekends, you could fill the place with Tuachters and Norwegians coming to the Smoke for a night out. I could never understand why there's only one rather severe YHA youth hostel in town. I was going to say WTF would anyone backpack to Aberdeen. Then I forgot about the Shetslands and the land of the £20 pint. Newcastle used to have a decent Norwegian booze and shop business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 I was going to say WTF would anyone backpack to Aberdeen. Then I forgot about the Shetslands and the land of the £20 pint. Newcastle used to have a decent Norwegian booze and shop business. I once stayed in a backpackers near Canary Wharf. Most of the clientele were self employed contractors as far as I could tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delboypass Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/grand-opening-planned-for-new-30m-offices/ "The £30 million project to transform the Capitol Theatre into offices is nearing completion with the grand opening set for Thursday, April 21." "Mr Crawshaw said there had been a “strong interest”, but no tenants have been confirmed." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 A wonderful use of technology. http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/143321/Cyberhawk_Completes_Drone_Inspection_Work_for_Offshore_Canada_Client Scottish aerial inspection firm Cyberhawk Innovations announced Wednesday that it has completed an offshore drone inspection in North America for an unnamed supermajor. Cyberhawk said the project took two weeks to complete the work at a platform located offshore Newfoundland, Canada. It encompassed the inspection of a live flare, platform underdeck and the roof of the facility's giant concrete gravity base. The use of Cyberhawk's ROAVs (Remotely Operated Aerial Vehicles) enabled the client to complete a backlog of complicated inspection and survey work on the platform. The ROAVs were chosen as the preferred method for inspection in order to reduce safety risks posed to personnel in the hazardous, foggy conditions that are prevalent off the east coast of Canada. Won't be too long before drones will be fixed with probes and performing eddy current or UT inspections. Trouble on the horizon for 'dope on a rope' abseilers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfr Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 (edited) The UK is set to spend billions on offshore decommissioning and removal, and the taxpayer will fund a large proportion of this, he said. in many cases youre going to spend more taking the thing out than they did putting it in, for no long-term benefit that I can see. I propose leaving virtually everything behind, provided its clean. That would require cleaning all the topsides, and all the components that would be full of oil. Some of the electronics may contain heavy metals, so you would have to remove all that. But the actual cleaning cost would be a fraction of that for taking it all away. https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/7617/removing-old-north-sea-rigs-wasting-money/ Edited March 6, 2016 by sfr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/7617/removing-old-north-sea-rigs-wasting-money/ Agree. Somebody in a position of influence has run the numbers and commented publicly the lunacy which is the DECOM groups cost forecasts. I know there will be animal lovers out there pining for a return to a clean sea, but the pragmatic approach is to follow something along these lines. Clean up the mess as best as possible, leave structures for marine life. The only big question mark is how to ensure the integrity of all the abandoned well from here to eternity. There is all kinds of toxic crap down there with a lot of that the result of producers pushing crap down there to free up flow etc.. We certainly don't want all that coming back up. And to reiterate my point for the umpteenth time, the oil companies are going to contribute almost nil unless legislation is drafted and they are forced to commit funds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reverand_cat Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Agree. Somebody in a position of influence has run the numbers and commented publicly the lunacy which is the DECOM groups cost forecasts. I know there will be animal lovers out there pining for a return to a clean sea, but the pragmatic approach is to follow something along these lines. Clean up the mess as best as possible, leave structures for marine life. The only big question mark is how to ensure the integrity of all the abandoned well from here to eternity. There is all kinds of toxic crap down there with a lot of that the result of producers pushing crap down there to free up flow etc.. We certainly don't want all that coming back up. And to reiterate my point for the umpteenth time, the oil companies are going to contribute almost nil unless legislation is drafted and they are forced to commit funds. Those I know and speak to in the industry keep on insisting that if this is the end of the North Sea oil boom... Then "look at the projected spend on decommissioning!" They seem to think decom will be another gravy train. I suspect you are right cash that there will be severe belt tightening and running away from liabilities, bankruptcies etc. I suspect if you want to make money from decom get into either law, politics or scrap metal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oily Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 http://www.aberdeenbusinessnews.co.uk/aberdeen/item/9282-hotel-room-occupancy-encouraging-for-glasgow-and-edinburgh-and-challenging-for-aberdeen "Meanwhile, in Aberdeen following severe contractions in both occupancy and revenue, RevPAR fell by 45.1% to a new record low level of £32.89" Average revenue per room for Aberdeen was over £80 in July 2014, £52 in August 2015 and now £33. Forward bookings show a further fall in demand. You would have to think this could be catastrophic for the sector? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quine Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Updates I've had today from ASPC have are showing houses all in negative equity. I think this could take a long time to play out. Contractors have been hit and now staff, who felt pretty secure, are going. Here's one from Zoopla this morning a 20% reduction "Huge Discount from Home report Valuation to ensure Quick Sale.." http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/39707814?search_identifier=44695412ee721136a4738bc0a5734d85#wKFpeV3q4gMlVzml.97 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfr Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Speaking of zoopla. Available rentals have shot upto 1001 on there today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reverand_cat Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Well there is still madness here. Not that I want to pimp something obscene, but have a gander at this 'property of the week'. https://www.sundaypost.com/in10/home-and-garden/property-of-the-week-out-on-the-town-in-stunning-aberdeen-villa/ Good luck with that. Zoopla puts it at £886k. Granted it's a nice location. Actually, plenty of these new build 'villa' four bedrooms in the Hazelhead area are scratching £1m in asking prices. Nuts. There must have been so much enquiries for it at that price that they decided to put it up for rent now... http://www.citylets.co.uk/m/details.html?property=410231 £3000pcm... Are they not aware of the recent RENTAL PRICE CRASH of over 20%??? They have absolutely no chance at that price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reverand_cat Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 (edited) As an FYI, this property has been on the rental market for over a year, it is at £1400 pcm and still has not been leased... http://m.zoopla.co.uk/to-rent/details/38195847?search_identifier=46e1a4d6b126a7237d4bc24dc387bfa5 Has this person done any market research??? Or are they just a chancer?? If this property above is £1400pcm, how in any circumstance could you lease that one for £3000pcm??? Edited March 7, 2016 by reverand_cat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palangot Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 For rental prices, I've always used 200x monthly rent as a rough guide to value. It's based on cost of money + cost of ownership (maintenance etc...). It's not perfect and in recent years it's been badly impacted by lower interest rates. But it's not a very agreesive valuation tool - and it only assumes a 6.7% GROSS yield. But if you have a house for rent at £3000 per month (and you need to pay that £3000 out of after tax money), it's only "worth" £600,000. But it's the same/similar for the one we saw recently at £825k. Based on that - this house house drop in value by another £200k and still be a rip-off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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