burk Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) 25 minutes ago, zugzwang said: That's what I'm worried about! Since there's no way that the Americans can service their current debt obligations w/o QE, it's odds on that as soon as they start printing again the UK will too. ......and then total collapse, what's not to like? #treblesallround Edited February 15 by burk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, cdd said: His low rate deal ends soon and he is under huge stress about it. He is desperate for rates to be cut, hopeful for any news that suggests they might. I've constantly warned him that the belief that rates will see any meaningful cuts any time soon is likely delusional. He listens to me now. Sounds like someone else on this forum. Guess who? 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 58 minutes ago, Pebbles said: This is a minor blip at worse. You cant have continually growth short periods of recession are inevitable despite what Gordon Brown told us. Germany is similarly suffering. Minor blip? I would advise you to stop sniffing that glue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 So the UK is officially in recession. Ah well, let's all have a cup of tea, and reflect on that. Oh, wait.... .... there's no tea..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petetong Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, cdd said: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/04/23/after-the-disease-the-debt People were warned there would be a debt to pay for the COVID drama and massive over reaction. Global flu "pandemic", shut down the world for two years. Print insane amounts of money to fund it. Slash rates to 0 at a time when inflation was probably well primed to become a problem. Cut stamp duty to "save" a housing market which didn't need saving. House price boom in which people FOMO to bid against each other to pay above asking price for already overpriced houses. All the while taking out extra large mortgages at ultra low rates. 3 years later rates are much higher and all that FOMO debt binging to buy the over priced house is seriously looking like it was a bad idea. FOMO leading to negative consequences? Imagine that. In the meanwhile, vested interests and desperate "home owners" continue to talk up house prices and hope to get away with their epic poor judgement. It is those who bid up house prices that helped cause this unsustainable house price mess. They should now be the ones to shoulder responsibility for the mess they helped create. And if that happens to manifest as house price falls and negative equity, well that's the karma they deserve. I agree with everything you've said but given today's news the BOE at the behest of the government will cut IR's at the next opportunity. The BBC News and Sky were both positively salivating at the prospect as they pile on pressure for that to happen, so we can go back to house prices increasing by 30% a year at the earliest available opportunity for ever, which appears to be the economic plan. As one of the economists the BBC interviewed said when asked about what effect the recession will have on house prices, "none as house prices only ever go up in the UK". You've got to hand to them, only increased IR's to the bare minimum required to tackle inflation and massively increased demand via record immigration when they couldn't do other HPI props. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarkey Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, cdd said: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/04/23/after-the-disease-the-debt People were warned there would be a debt to pay for the COVID drama and massive over reaction. Global flu "pandemic", shut down the world for two years. Print insane amounts of money to fund it. Slash rates to 0 at a time when inflation was probably well primed to become a problem. Cut stamp duty to "save" a housing market which didn't need saving. House price boom in which people FOMO to bid against each other to pay above asking price for already overpriced houses. All the while taking out extra large mortgages at ultra low rates. 3 years later rates are much higher and all that FOMO debt binging to buy the over priced house is seriously looking like it was a bad idea. FOMO leading to negative consequences? Imagine that. In the meanwhile, vested interests and desperate "home owners" continue to talk up house prices and hope to get away with their epic poor judgement. It is those who bid up house prices that helped cause this unsustainable house price mess. They should now be the ones to shoulder responsibility for the mess they helped create. And if that happens to manifest as house price falls and negative equity, well that's the karma they deserve. People were warned but sadly those voices of reason were drowned out by overly emotional healthcare nut jobs predicting vast quantities of doom. All well pensioned with cosy government salaries . Now the country is up to its eyeballs in debt and having to reduce everyone’s living standards via the taxman to pay for it. Another year or two and anyone doing a decent days work will be taxed at 40% on their earnings. A massive amount of government spending is in health and social care , just think how lean and competitive we would be if we had not listened to the doom mongers and let nature run its course and cleared out some of the dead wood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, petetong said: As one of the economists the BBC interviewed said when asked about what effect the recession will have on house prices, "none as house prices only ever go up in the UK Interesting do you have a link to this so-called BBC economist interview? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petetong Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Tony_Teacake said: Interesting do you have a link to this so-called BBC economist interview? It was on BBC News around sometime between 12pm and 1pm, one of their economist journalists interviewed 3 or 4 economists with questions from viewers to get their opinion on the impact of the recession and its effects on IR's and house prices. I imagine the economist said it given recent history and how the government rigs the housing market to do just that. Edited February 15 by petetong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Housepricecrash91 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Yep, the UK is quickly turning into a stagnant low wage, high tax economy... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pebbles Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 35 minutes ago, Tony_Teacake said: Minor blip? I would advise you to stop sniffing that glue. What like all that glue sniffed on here regarding house price collapse for the last 12 years I've been here. The glue sniffers were those that called massive house price collapse after MMR, mark carneys forward guidance, Section 24, Basel 3, Brexit and Covid they are the glue sniffers you have been caught out as being charlatans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual-observer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Pebbles said: What like all that glue sniffed on here regarding house price collapse for the last 12 years I've been here. The glue sniffers were those that called massive house price collapse after MMR, mark carneys forward guidance, Section 24, Basel 3, Brexit and Covid they are the glue sniffers you have been caught out as being charlatans. Simple....few expected the West elite to print like Zimbabwe and slash rates to negative. True we never got what should have been bog standard House price corrections because instead they opted to burn the economy to the ground. You'd have to be sniffing glue to think any of this has been a success story and a gotcha moment. The nations ability to accrue debt has simply had to max first before anyone can expect reasonably priced homes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Far Canal Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Still, luckily, the OBR has predicted every year going forward will have GDP growth. You can always rely on their figures....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual-observer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Far Canal said: Still, luckily, the OBR has predicted every year going forward will have GDP growth. You can always rely on their figures....... Indeed, considering every public body needs growth to keep their debt rolling over...else it means cuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Far Canal said: Still, luckily, the OBR has predicted every year going forward will have GDP growth. You can always rely on their figures....... I suspect we're probably out of recession now. 2024 will be a great year with crumbling inflation and accelerating growth. ✓✓ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blobsy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Orb said: So the UK is officially in recession. Ah well, let's all have a cup of tea, and reflect on that. Oh, wait.... .... there's no tea..... 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 hours ago, yodigo said: need some more immigrants, that'll make it better 🤔 in the same vein im struggling to understand this paragraph from the FT If it had not been for a big influx of migrants — net migration hit a record 745,000 in 2022 — Treasury insiders admit that the headline GDP figures would have been even worse Why would increasing the population, i.e. dividing GDP by a higher number, mean that GDP per head is better? surely it would produce a lower GDP per capita number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nero120 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, regprentice said: in the same vein im struggling to understand this paragraph from the FT If it had not been for a big influx of migrants — net migration hit a record 745,000 in 2022 — Treasury insiders admit that the headline GDP figures would have been even worse Why would increasing the population, i.e. dividing GDP by a higher number, mean that GDP per head is better? surely it would produce a lower GDP per capita number. Good question. Are they just inferring that GDP would be lower with "less people working/spending", or is it somehow directly put into the GDP calculation... Would certainly explain why the British establishment so desperately want to flood the country with more unskilled migrants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We are in Rishicession nothing to see here move on down the bus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Or that many of the migrants are filling roles in NHS and care homes boosting GDP figures Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frederico Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, nero120 said: Good question. Are they just inferring that GDP would be lower with "less people working/spending", or is it somehow directly put into the GDP calculation... Would certainly explain why the British establishment so desperately want to flood the country with more unskilled migrants. Yes it’s just rubbish anyway, I think I read somewhere that if you buy something on a credit card it counts as double the value for gdp as there is effectively 2 transactions. Thats the problem with a credit driven economy, everyone has to pay their debts. When they can’t the real problems begin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petetong Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, nero120 said: Good question. Are they just inferring that GDP would be lower with "less people working/spending", or is it somehow directly put into the GDP calculation... Would certainly explain why the British establishment so desperately want to flood the country with more unskilled migrants. Total GDP has gone up due to it, GDP per capita which is the one that matters has decreased since 2008: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petetong Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, nero120 said: Good question. Are they just inferring that GDP would be lower with "less people working/spending", or is it somehow directly put into the GDP calculation... Would certainly explain why the British establishment so desperately want to flood the country with more unskilled migrants. Total GDP has gone up due to it, GDP per capita which is the one that matters has decreased since 2008: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Pebbles said: What like all that glue sniffed on here regarding house price collapse for the last 12 years I've been here. The glue sniffers were those that called massive house price collapse after MMR, mark carneys forward guidance, Section 24, Basel 3, Brexit and Covid they are the glue sniffers you have been caught out as being charlatans. I have been on this site for 2 years. I don't drink, smoke or sniff glue. I think the trend in the economy is down from here and I can't see this being a shallow one. I suppose one thing good thing to come pout of this recession is house prices will sky rocket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Far Canal Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Stewy said: I suspect we're probably out of recession now. 2024 will be a great year with crumbling inflation and accelerating growth. ✓✓ 2 weeks ago everything seemed quiet. This week it appears much busier. A single week doesn't make a summer though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 With the UK population growing by 1% a year due to mass immigration the GDP per head figures, which are the ones that really matter, will be even worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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