petetong

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/house-prices-forecast-to-drop-by-14-next-year-lbj77clv2 House prices will fall by almost 14 per cent next year once the government’s temporary cut in stamp duty ends and the economic impact of coronavirus filters through to the property market, according to an analysis by an economic consultancy Centre for Economics and Business Research.

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/covid-red-alert-birmingham-hospitals-18912398

Based on the news today and various vested interests piping up, I imagine Richy Rich will be extending furlough for many until the spring. HPC postponed again ? Still selling like hot cakes near me, rang up today to look at one and was told nope, no more viewings at moment, we can put you on a waiting list to look at it, presumably if they don't get loads of offers above asking. Think it might partly be explained by the fact that the NHS and universities are the main big employers in the area, so many have not been affected financially by the pandemic. I am beginning to think we will see a dr

I've found the actual study which was published/reported on 13th August. Initally was going on a newspaper report which was a bit inaccurate by the looks of it, but they say: The study findings also show that the overall infection fatality ratio - the proportion of infected people who died - was calculated to be 0.9 per cent https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-publishes-results

That is not how you calculate infection fatality rate (IFR). It's the number of deaths divided by total number of infections, 6% of population are thought to have had covid-19 using the results of serological population surveys, so 6% of 6600000 is approximately 4 million. 41K deaths gives IFR of about 1%. I assume 1.2% quoted in the study used a different number of deaths or population figure, but even using your figures it's still around 1%. The term infection fatality rate (IFR) also applies to infectious disease outbreaks, and represents the proportion of deaths among all th

0.62% "loss" is presumably infection fatality rate ? The latest population serological surveys done in the UK indicate about 6% of Uk population have had covid-19, meaning a IFR of 1.2%.

If we don't have vaccine deployed by winter I would think a second wave is very likely to some degree, we will have opened up more by then and the virus is believed to both more contagious and virulent in colder temperatures and winter humidity.

Oliver James, a Manchester estate agent, said: “In the last two weeks we have done seven sales to Hong Kong buyers. We’ve sold three properties just today. Previously, we would maybe sell one to a Hong Kong buyer every six months.” Ben Hudson, of York estate agents Hudson Moodys, said he has sold five properties to Hong Kong buyers in the last eight weeks. “Normally we would sell two or three properties to Hong Kong buyers in a year. It’s a huge change,” he said. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/hong-kong-residents-snap-property-northern-england/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li

This new research is rather concerning as it suggests a high proportion of covid-19 patients, including those with mild disease as in this study only 30% were hospitalised for it, sustain heart abnormalities/damage, whether that is permanent or not is to be determined but I would have thought having ongoing inflammation in the myocardium would leave some sort of damage: Conclusions: Taken together, we demonstrate cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%) with recent COVID-19 illness, independent of preexisting conditions, severi

In that case, should we expect more mortgage approvals in the near future as banks have more funny money to loan or will banks use it to insulate themselves from bad debts of collapsing businesses and mortgage defaulters ?

Where did you get 50% are false positives from, is it something recent ? I know when some serological surveys were done in California and came back with high figures for people who had already had it, the results were rubbished because the surveys did indeed have a very level of false positives. As I understand it when there is low prevalence of an infection in a population you get a high level of false positives, as in up to 50% or more, due to the serological tests specificity/sensitivity, as prevalence increases you get less false positives.

Behind a paywall https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/30/lloyds-bank-falls-loss-covid-costs-weigh/ "It expects to lose £603m on mortgage defaults alone, up from a £38m provision for the same period in 2019, due to forecasts of steep house price falls."

Around my area some houses going really quick at high prices but area is key unsurprisingly along with development potential although some that have been on the market for 6 months have gone in last 2 weeks. There are lots reductions but that is mostly from high initial asking prices generally. A converted small barn out in the sticks came on the market a month ago at £375K, went down to £345K after 3 weeks and it's now market at £275K, so clearly someone trying their luck initially and now getting more desperate. A 2 bedroom cottage/end of terrace, a former new build, £410K, in a market town

I think a house is probably the safest option out of the lot though given the vested interests involved, but obviously that means either paying top dollar now or waiting and hoping you time it right for any drop, assuming one comes.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/renting/landlords-losses-hit-57bn-2024-four-times-2008-financial-crash/ Behind paywall unfortunately but the BTL brigade won't be happy if it transpires.