The world has changed

[kzb]

53 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Not going to happen.

It gets sold on the international market. So Sunak and his mates can get a cut. The whole reason for the licences, nothing to do with energy security.

There's more to it than that however.  Gas is difficult to export, there is one pipeline going to Belgium.  Other than that it needs liquifying and shipping, all adding to cost.

Our North Sea oil has to be landed at a UK port by law.

[kzb]

44 minutes ago, PrincessNutNut said:

Below shows @kzb's assessment broadly right. If you include biomass (which is less climate friendly than most of this list) in "renewables", you're looking at roughly 40% of electricity being produced by renewables, with electricity making up around 15% of total primary energy demand.
So around 6% of the UK's energy needs are met by renewables.

@14stFlyer

There you go, a fantastic reply from PrincessNutNut.

To add to that, the recent decline in electricity consumption is not necessarily something to celebrate.  If it is genuinely because of increased energy efficiency then great.  But I think we all know there is more to it than that.

The TV news is full of people having to choose between heating and food.  They've turned the lights off on Motorways at night.  In other words, if you put the price up (as they have) people use less.  But they are not happy about using less, it represents a decrease in our standard of living and quality of life.

Also, the high energy price means our industry gets exported to countries where energy is cheaper.  So, again, we lose independence, jobs and standard of living.  But UK energy usage is decreased, so that is paraded as something fantastic.  But of course it is not any such thing in reality.

[PropertyMania]

57 minutes ago, PrincessNutNut said:

Total UK energy demand is falling due to offshoring of manufacturing.

 

 

 

It's not just that, households / offices are using much less electricity too

 

[NoHPCinTheUK]

How exactly switching off the lights on the motorways has impacted our standard of living? Has the rate of car accidents increased since then? If not what’s the problem? There are miles of motorways where at night very few cars would drive. Do you leave the lights in your living room on when you’re in your bedroom at night? 

[kzb]

6 minutes ago, PropertyMania said:

It's not just that, households / offices are using much less electricity too

Some of it is due to appliance efficiency but some of it is because people cannot afford it.  Their quality of life is being decreased.  So it is not necessarily something to be held up as desirable.

An advanced economy with well-off people uses energy.  A decrease in energy consumption could be seen as a symptom of decline, not advancement.

In any case are you seriously arguing that when the 84% of energy that not electricity is replaced with electricity, then electricity consumption will decrease ?

[NoHPCinTheUK]

2 minutes ago, kzb said:

Some of it is due to appliance efficiency but some of it is because people cannot afford it.  Their quality of life is being decreased.  So it is not necessarily something to be held up as desirable.

An advanced economy with well-off people uses energy.  A decrease in energy consumption could be seen as a symptom of decline, not advancement.

In any case are you seriously arguing that when the 84% of energy that not electricity is replaced with electricity, then electricity consumption will decrease ?

Oh so now the story is that people in Britain , 2023 AD don’t have fridges and TVs in their houses. I guess that back in the 70s F1 cars would consume a lot more fuel than a Red Bull today, but the Red Bull is way faster than the McLaren Hunt used to drive. 

[kzb]

3 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Oh so now the story is that people in Britain , 2023 AD don’t have fridges and TVs in their houses. I guess that back in the 70s F1 cars would consume a lot more fuel than a Red Bull today, but the Red Bull is way faster than the McLaren Hunt used to drive. 

On Channel 5 right now, there are people calling in complaining of fuel poverty.  They're being destroyed by their energy bills along with other costs.  If you can, turn on the TV and see

[NoHPCinTheUK]

9 minutes ago, kzb said:

On Channel 5 right now, there are people calling in complaining of fuel poverty.  They're being destroyed by their energy bills along with other costs.  If you can, turn on the TV and see

I can’t sorry. 
 

Well thankfully we have millions of social housing flats with high energy standards where all these people can move and spend less and there are more to come. Oh wait

[kzb]

7 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

I can’t sorry. 
 

Well thankfully we have millions of social housing flats with high energy standards where all these people can move and spend less and there are more to come. Oh wait

So who is going to pay for all these social housing flats ?  And if they do, that is money being diverted from investment elsewhere.

[kzb]

46 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

How exactly switching off the lights on the motorways has impacted our standard of living? Has the rate of car accidents increased since then? If not what’s the problem? There are miles of motorways where at night very few cars would drive. Do you leave the lights in your living room on when you’re in your bedroom at night? 

It's a symptom of decline.  Those motorways were built with lights, at great expense, and now we can't have them.

No, I don't have any accident statistics (in any case they will be covering it up).  Any crash has to be attended to by emergency services in the dark, and often in appalling weather conditions.

[NoHPCinTheUK]

15 minutes ago, kzb said:

So who is going to pay for all these social housing flats ?  And if they do, that is money being diverted from investment elsewhere.

The money we now give to private landlords to house poor people in their shitty flats and the money spent to help those who can’t pay their bills. 
 

BuTiT’sSoCiAliSmWeDonTlikeIT

[PrincessNutNut]

52 minutes ago, PropertyMania said:

It's not just that, households / offices are using much less electricity too

 

Per household/appliance perhaps. I'd expect that to be offset by both population growth (i.e. more households) and shift in consumption (more appliances, especially computers).

Below supposedly stems from DECC data.

 

[jonb2]

55 minutes ago, kzb said:

On Channel 5 right now, there are people calling in complaining of fuel poverty.  They're being destroyed by their energy bills along with other costs.  If you can, turn on the TV and see

Good thing all the energy companies aren't posting record profits then.

Oh wait ...

[PrincessNutNut]

In case anyone missed it: The max strike price for CfDs for offshore wind was increased by 66% this morning in the UK.

£73/MWh is equivalent to £124.10 per barrel of oil (or $148.92 USD, for those wanting a quick reference against Brent).

Edit:
Of course CfDs are set at 2012 prices, which makes this £100.5/MWh in today's money... 😇

Edited November 16, 2023 by PrincessNutNut

[kzb]

3 hours ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

The money we now give to private landlords to house poor people in their shitty flats and the money spent to help those who can’t pay their bills. 
 

BuTiT’sSoCiAliSmWeDonTlikeIT

Well OK but you have to pay for all those things until you have built your flats.  It's an additional cost to the taxpayer.

[kzb]

2 hours ago, jonb2 said:

Good thing all the energy companies aren't posting record profits then.

Oh wait ...

Yes good to see you are agreeing with me.  Those renewable generators have been coining it in both from subsidies and from high prices.   Absolutely disgusting this was allowed to happen.

[kzb]

2 hours ago, PrincessNutNut said:

In case anyone missed it: The max strike price for CfDs for offshore wind was increased by 66% this morning in the UK.

£73/MWh is equivalent to £124.10 per barrel of oil (or $148.92 USD, for those wanting a quick reference against Brent).

Edit:
Of course CfDs are set at 2012 prices, which makes this £100.5/MWh in today's money... 😇

Reportedly £105/MWh in today's money.  Solar has also had an increase, which hardly supports the mantra that solar is getting cheaper and cheaper.

The current generation cost of gas CCGT is said to be £84/MWh at today's prices.  This is excluding the carbon taxes for the sake of comparison.

However we still have to see if these new prices are high enough.  We still don't know if the renewables industry are prepared to build more capacity at these new prices.

The much touted floating wind turbines get a new CfD price of £176/MWh.  Presumably that is about £253/MWh at today's prices.  This is outrageous because we're not even paying that retail. 

But these floating turbines are the future as all the shallow-water sites become filled up.  Bearing in mind we'll need many thousands of square km covered in the things.

[PropertyMania]

4 hours ago, PrincessNutNut said:

In case anyone missed it: The max strike price for CfDs for offshore wind was increased by 66% this morning in the UK.

£73/MWh is equivalent to £124.10 per barrel of oil (or $148.92 USD, for those wanting a quick reference against Brent).

Edit:
Of course CfDs are set at 2012 prices, which makes this £100.5/MWh in today's money... 😇

presumably because there wasn't much wind / sun and high demand for heating

[markyh]

On 15/11/2023 at 10:19, Maghull Mike said:

 

What happens when the West has little to offer in trade & the rest of the Word decide to not trade their goods/services or leave their raw materials in the ground?

War.  We invade, kill and conquer again, arm in arm with our allies, to own and control resources like we did in the 18th and 19th centuries.   

[kzb]

22 minutes ago, PropertyMania said:

presumably because there wasn't much wind / sun and high demand for heating

I'm afraid you have a fundamental misapprehension here.

These are basically the offered guaranteed prices for wind farms (etc) that have not yet been built.

The government has offered maximum electricity prices to the renewables energy industry.  That industry is now meant to bid to provide electricity with this as the maximum price available, for new plant.  There is no guarantee that they will, because last year they all declined to bid at the price offered.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

On 15/11/2023 at 09:51, NoHPCinTheUK said:

I was expecting a 70s style economic downturn at this point. 
 

It didn’t materialise. 
 

My opinion is that renewables have completely changed the landscape in the West. The system can absorb major shocks in fossil fuel markets. 
 

 

Nothing to do with renewables (but they helped lessen the blow)... more to do with QE... but QE causes eternal stagnation, which is where we're at... Biden and pals are behind a new approach... the new interventionism as they call it... heavy public spending on infrastructure etc. which aims to move beyond neoliberal stagnation to a new era of growth and equality... not sure the corporates are on board... but hey, interesting times. 

[Trampa501]

47 minutes ago, markyh said:

War.  We invade, kill and conquer again, arm in arm with our allies, to own and control resources like we did in the 18th and 19th centuries.   

The rest of the world now has the weapons and armed forces to prevent such invasions. Even Afghanistan forced the Amercans/Brits/western countries out.  

Best we can do is to finance mercenaries and supply arms in order to gain influence. And that too will rebound heavily - if you think refugee numbers are currently too high, you've seen nothing yet. It's the old medieval tactic of forcing civilians into the castle so they cannot withstand a long siege. Erdogan and Putin are well aware of this...

[longgone]

1 hour ago, markyh said:

War.  We invade, kill and conquer again, arm in arm with our allies, to own and control resources like we did in the 18th and 19th centuries.   

Lol where are these people who are prepared to do that.

young brits are fat wasters jerking off on the xbox and getting offended by pronouns. 

Gen x was the last badass generation. 

[nero120]

2 hours ago, markyh said:

War.  We invade, kill and conquer again, arm in arm with our allies, to own and control resources like we did in the 18th and 19th centuries.   

Ah I bet those dirty russian orcs are bricking it at the idea of our transgender/pregnant/woke warriors invading mother Russia and stealing their resources!

[burk]