HPC crying, losing hoap

[andrewwk]

https://www.independent.co.uk/money/uk-house-prices-increased-by-0-9-monthonmonth-in-october-says-nationwide-b2439554.html

[Smith]

Property prices are falling and hardly anyone is buying. I showed an interest in two auction properties, one of which received no bids at last week's auction despite the guide price being lowered by 15% the night before. I'm getting daily calls from both auctioneers, which is unheard of. You don't need a report from Nationwide to see what's happening. It's happening right now.

[hotblack42]

What is 'hoap'?

[Roman Roady]

18 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

What is 'hoap'?

😄

[bushblairandbrown]

On 01/11/2023 at 08:29, hotblack42 said:

What is 'hoap'?

Typo of soap?

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

On 01/11/2023 at 07:55, andrewwk said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/money/uk-house-prices-increased-by-0-9-monthonmonth-in-october-says-nationwide-b2439554.html

Feast on this, you'll feel better soon:

The shit is still coming down the pipe...

Edited November 2, 2023 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
typo

[Stewy]

On 01/11/2023 at 08:24, Smith said:

Property prices are falling and hardly anyone is buying. I showed an interest in two auction properties, one of which received no bids at last week's auction despite the guide price being lowered by 15% the night before. I'm getting daily calls from both auctioneers, which is unheard of. You don't need a report from Nationwide to see what's happening. It's happening right now.

That's not what the data show ✓✓

Here, take some:

[Pmax2020]

I just see there being two facets to the correction. 

1) A significant proportion of 2021/2022 buyers will make a substantial loss. I expect to see many examples of 30% falls when those 2-year fixes come to an end. A blood bath for thousands of muppets who paid over the odds. 

2) For everyone else that bought pre-covid, I struggle to see falls greater than 10%. 

Search the sold prices in you local areas during 2012-2018 era… mean property values are not falling back to those levels. Not while wages continue to rocket. 

[frederico]

Just reductions and more for sale around here, within half a mile 62 for sale and another 33 sold. Most of the sold are from July or earlier.

When we were looking to buy 23 years ago, you were lucky if one came on the market within a mile. It is crazy.

[Smith]

33 minutes ago, Stewy said:

That's not what the data show ✓✓

Here, take some:

I know you're just trying to have some fun with your fake profile, but all the same I'll reply as if you were serious: you'd do well to watch the video immediately above your post, and see what you think then about what the data shows.

[Crowed]

38 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

I just see there being two facets to the correction. 

1) A significant proportion of 2021/2022 buyers will make a substantial loss. I expect to see many examples of 30% falls when those 2-year fixes come to an end. A blood bath for thousands of muppets who paid over the odds. 

2) For everyone else that bought pre-covid, I struggle to see falls greater than 10%. 

Search the sold prices in you local areas during 2012-2018 era… mean property values are not falling back to those levels. Not while wages continue to rocket. 

I didn't think it, but wage inflation is going to stay for another year or two for sure - I got 9 percent, but I know of plenty of friend (at either end of the spectrum) who got 12 to 15 percent - and are expecting the same again this coming year. If inflation remains high then wages will follow. Even just 2 years of 10 percent rises will increase what people can borrow - or at very least mean that people can afford the new now higher mortgage payments. 

 

I didn't think I'd see this sort of wage inflation during my working life, but wages certainly aren't going down again now they are up. 

I still believe we need a crash if my kids are ever going to afford places to live, but once again it seems kicked forwards. This time last year I was dead set on 20 percent drops, this year I'd bet flat. It might well be 20 percent real terms drops due to inflation, but it won't be the drops we've hoped for. 

[scottbeard]

13 hours ago, crow said:

I didn't think it, but wage inflation is going to stay for another year or two for sure - I got 9 percent, but I know of plenty of friend (at either end of the spectrum) who got 12 to 15 percent - and are expecting the same again this coming year. 

I still believe we need a crash if my kids are ever going to afford places to live, but once again it seems kicked forwards. This time last year I was dead set on 20 percent drops, this year I'd bet flat. It might well be 20 percent real terms drops due to inflation, but it won't be the drops we've hoped for. 

I'm a bit confused - surely a 20% wage increase is BETTER than a 20% house price crash, since housing is only part of the cost of living?

For a FTB surely they'd rather their wages went up 20% and house prices stayed level than house prices fell 20% and their wages stayed level?

[msi]

15 hours ago, Stewy said:

That's not what the data show ✓✓

Still waiting for your rate cuts....

[Stewy]

2 hours ago, msi said:

Still waiting for your rate cuts....

Not long now bro. 👍

[cdd]

18 hours ago, Stewy said:

That's not what the data show ✓✓

Here, take some:

Your post better represents the state of those gambling on low interest rates or increasing house prices, or both.

[cdd]

3 hours ago, msi said:

Still waiting for your rate cuts....

They're coming in February.... 2029

[Aidan Ap Word]

2 hours ago, Stewy said:

4 hours ago, msi said:

Still waiting for your rate cuts....

Not long now bro. 👍

 

1 hour ago, cdd said:

They're coming in February.... 2029

Well, a February. Probably. Not sure Stewy is sure which February.

He did say December 2023 ... but with a 6/9 keep/raise vota balance in October ... not looking very likely is it?

[Stewy]

11 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

 

Well, a February. Probably. Not sure Stewy is sure which February.

He did say December 2023 ... but with a 6/9 keep/raise vota balance in October ... not looking very likely is it?

There wasn't a vote in October 😆

[tcltk]

@Stewy seeing a Pepe in one of your posts is hilarious. 

[Aidan Ap Word]

 

1 hour ago, Stewy said:

1 hour ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

 

Well, a February. Probably. Not sure Stewy is sure which February.

He did say December 2023 ... but with a 6/9 keep/raise vota balance in October ... not looking very likely is it?

There wasn't a vote in October 😆

Sorry ... yes ... November 2nd. I had hoped - for your sake - that it is was October at that split so that there would be more time between the OctoberNovember 2023 decision/vote and the December 2023 vte for ythe interest rate cutts you have promised will be "this year".

[crashbaby]

6 hours ago, scottbeard said:

I'm a bit confused - surely a 20% wage increase is BETTER than a 20% house price crash, since housing is only part of the cost of living?

For a FTB surely they'd rather their wages went up 20% and house prices stayed level than house prices fell 20% and their wages stayed level?

Consider a marginal tax rate of 50% to keep the maths simple:

1. 20% wage increase (gross) means you have 10% more money after tax

2. if you pay 20% less for your house (net) then you need to earn 40% less before tax (20% net + another 20% you would pay in taxes)

[Up the spout]

5 hours ago, crashbaby said:

Consider a marginal tax rate of 50% to keep the maths simple:

1. 20% wage increase (gross) means you have 10% more money after tax

2. if you pay 20% less for your house (net) then you need to earn 40% less before tax (20% net + another 20% you would pay in taxes)

The marginal rate only hits 40% at £42k and most are on 20%. If you get a 20% raise and aren't wealthy, are you not on your old wage but tax-free? 

Not sure of my maths, but I think it's an interesting point and worthy of discussion in a high(er) inflation environment than we're recently used to. 

 

[TheChangeIsCast]

9 hours ago, Stewy said:

Not long now bro. 👍

14th Dec was the date you posted, to be precise.

[scottbeard]

5 hours ago, crashbaby said:

Consider a marginal tax rate of 50% to keep the maths simple:

1. 20% wage increase (gross) means you have 10% more money after tax

2. if you pay 20% less for your house (net) then you need to earn 40% less before tax (20% net + another 20% you would pay in taxes)

I understand you pay some of the pay rise in tax.

But unless housing is more than 50% of your outgoings you're still better off with a 20% pay rise than a 20% HPC?

In numbers 30k take home pay becomes 33k post rise in your example

10k annual mortgage payments become 8k.

Only if annual mortgage payment is over 15k is the HPC better?

[A.steve]

There are a lot of relevant factors... but I don't think 20% wage increases help those who aspire to buy a home.

• General 20% wage increases result in the things that wage-earners pay for being 20% more expensive than they otherwise could have been.
• Inflation arising from wage increases will drive upwards the cost of borrowing.
• While a purchase is deferred, awaiting accumulation of savings from increased wages, there's a real absence of stability which is likely to have (both direct and indirect) adverse affects.
• Mispricing of assets will result their misallocation - causing systemic adverse effects.