Thursday's BoE meeting - what's your prediction?

[fellow]

4 hours ago, Gbob said:

Energy costs down

Inflation down

Sept growth down

I think they will hold

Oil up.

CPI expected to increase due to above.

You mean July growth. This -0.5% was just a correction from the higher than expected +0.5% from June. Growth is effectively flat and they want a recession anyway.

2 hours ago, henry the king said:

Too early to say. Depends on the inflation data the day before almost entirely right now. 

Come on Henry, we all want your prediction. Don't sit on the fence.

Edited September 14, 2023 by fellow

[Aidan Ap Word]

Does anyone know how many times in this series this forum has been correct?

Note: please don't just reply with "lots". I know this. I am wondering how many lots is.

[fellow]

18 minutes ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Does anyone know how many times in this series this forum has been correct?

Note: please don't just reply with "lots". I know this. I am wondering how many lots is.

Not sure but this must be the strongest consensus yet?

[Maghull Mike]

Oil (Brent) is $94 (up 2% today).............

Blowing up Russian warships was the response, Putin is meeting Kim.....If Nato use the "Exercise" in the Black Sea to try a blockade run......i think things are likely focus on KOrea.

Mike

[petetong]

1 hour ago, Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz said:

It will inevitably be a hold... followed by problems and a rise at the following meeting. 

There are problems coming through right now re: inflation... but the MPC always seems to be behind the curve, sadly. 

Yep that's a fair bet given how corrupt they are ...

[Aidan Ap Word]

1 hour ago, fellow said:

Not sure but this must be the strongest consensus yet?

This consensus might be herd mentality this time ... it being so strong  .... rather than the collective opinion of reasoned individuals?

 

But then as at time of writing there are 74 votes on this poll ... that's a big (distributed) "herd" ...?

[Orb]

7 hours ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

Does anyone know how many times in this series this forum has been correct?

Note: please don't just reply with "lots". I know this. I am wondering how many lots is.

100% correct so far. 

It was also noted the last poll's proportional spread mirrored the MPC too, in that x-percentage went for 0.25%, x-percentage went for 0%, and 0.5%. 

[Society of fools]

11 hours ago, A.steve said:

The new normal is raising a quarter of a percent... then making a press release saying that this is likely the last rise... then repeating that over and over again.  That's what the ECB did...

Ha ha ! So true. 
 

I voted 0.25% 

[Gbob]

9 hours ago, fellow said:

Oil up.

CPI expected to increase due to above.

You mean July growth. This -0.5% was just a correction from the higher than expected +0.5% from June. Growth is effectively flat and they want a recession anyway.

Come on Henry, we all want your prediction. Don't sit on the fence.

D'oh Yes I meant, July. It's still September now. Fair point about oil let's see where that goes.

Still think they will take a wait and see approach this time round.

[scottbeard]

8 hours ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

This consensus might be herd mentality this time ... it being so strong  .... rather than the collective opinion of reasoned individuals?

 

But then as at time of writing there are 74 votes on this poll ... that's a big (distributed) "herd" ...?

The issue is that not long ago anything from 0 to 1.00 was justifiable.

Now Bailey has pretty much said In advance it will be 0 or 0.25

So the playing field is much smaller, and naturally leads to more concentration

[henry the king]

11 hours ago, scottbeard said:

A very low indlation figure could maybe change it, but between high wage rises, high US inflation, rising oil prices and ECB rate rises there is almost nothing to me saying hold.

Yes I think +0.25% unless inflation data surprises lower.

[clarkey]

Still don’t really follow why they just didn’t go to 5% plus rates straight away. I guess that the drip drip gives the impression that they know exactly what they are doing vs being out of control. Most people will be coming off 1% rates going straight to 5% anyway

i reckon 0.25% rise

Edited September 15, 2023 by clarkey

[Bruce Banner]

I put 0.5%, 'twas a Freudian slip, 0.25% more likely.

[Timm]

I've gone 0.25%.

I think they have to raise, because of the earnings data. So 0.0% is very unlikely.

Also, whilst they do actually want a recession, to get inflation properly under control, they don't want to be seen as raising wildly into it, so 0.5% is also unlikely.

[mynamehere]

No idea, but presumably a hold is feasible given swap rates have fallen under 5% again?

[scottbeard]

16 minutes ago, Timm said:

Also, whilst they do actually want a recession, to get inflation properly under control, they don't want to be seen as raising wildly into it, so 0.5% is also unlikely.

I don't think it's that the WANT a recession in the abstract, I think it's more that they want to get inflation under control and a recession kind of does it for them.  I think Bailey thought a recession for H2 2023 was nailed on, and that's why the BoE didn't raise rates earlier.

So I think their ideal would be that the inflation works through on its own for external reasons, then Plan B is a recession and finally Plan C is actions they can be blamed for like interest rate rises.

[nero120]

18 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I don't think it's that the WANT a recession in the abstract, I think it's more that they want to get inflation under control and a recession kind of does it for them.  I think Bailey thought a recession for H2 2023 was nailed on, and that's why the BoE didn't raise rates earlier.

So I think their ideal would be that the inflation works through on its own for external reasons, then Plan B is a recession and finally Plan C is actions they can be blamed for like interest rate rises.

A good old recession will certainly work wonders for house prices, wish it would hurry up and arrive FFS.

[Frankie Teardrop]

Fedwatch suggesting 97% chance the FED pause. Their decision is a day ahead of the BoE.
ECB indicating yesterdays hike is the last one.

Its going to be a pause,  despite crude oil ripping 30% higher in last 2 months and services, earnings & core inflation way above target.

[Timm]

Coming at this from a tangent:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/31/bank-of-england-must-see-through-job-of-fighting-inflation-top-economist-says

Quote

the Bank of England’s chief economist said there were two ways for Threadneedle Street to bring UK inflation back to the government’s 2% target. One was the Matterhorn model, named after the jagged 4,478-metre high peak in the Alps, under which interest rates would go up sharply and come down sharply. Alternatively, the Bank could go down the Table Mountain route. This approach would involve a lower peak but then stay at a high altitude for a considerable period.

At first glance, it looks like he is saying that leaving rates at quite a high level for a long time is more stable and therefore better than swift sharp hikes and then having to cut. Makes sense, but how do you know you have reached the right level to hold at?

I think what they are actually saying is that they want inflation to come down, but slowly.

"Oh Lord, give me inflation at target, but not yet."

[Dreamcasting]

So then, what a difference a week makes. Last week, the majority of the forum went with a 0.25% increase in rates. Given today's "surprising" inflation figures, I wonder how many people have changed to a hold?

I still thing +0.25% as inflation is still considerably higher than where it needs to be.

[Sackboii]

My original vote was pause - 0% - I still think this.

[MrMonkey]

I'm expecting +0.25%, as the other factors on paper (wage growth, food inflation, oil price, UK Sterling value) are all still heading in the wrong direction, and inflation, while falling, is still way above the target amount and hardly falling quickly. After all, a 0.1% fall in inflation is seen as 'good' because people were expecting to see a rise. If we had no expectations beforehand a 0.1% fall would have been seen as a sign that inflation is remaining way above the 2% target.

That said, I would not be surprised to see rates being held at the current level while uncertainty seems everywhere and the headline rate seems to be staying where it is, as much as I think this would be a daft decision.

[scottbeard]

19 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

So then, what a difference a week makes. Last week, the majority of the forum went with a 0.25% increase in rates. Given today's "surprising" inflation figures, I wonder how many people have changed to a hold?

I still thing +0.25% as inflation is still considerably higher than where it needs to be.

Inflation fell all the way from 6.8% to 6.7%, which frankly is no change.  The best you can say is it didn't go up, which was expected.

It could go either way, but I would have thought a 0.25% rise with strong messages that "now we're going to pause" would be a sensible approach from the BoE.

[Casual-observer]

26 minutes ago, MrMonkey said:

I'm expecting +0.25%, as the other factors on paper (wage growth, food inflation, oil price, UK Sterling value) are all still heading in the wrong direction, and inflation, while falling, is still way above the target amount and hardly falling quickly. After all, a 0.1% fall in inflation is seen as 'good' because people were expecting to see a rise. If we had no expectations beforehand a 0.1% fall would have been seen as a sign that inflation is remaining way above the 2% target.

That said, I would not be surprised to see rates being held at the current level while uncertainty seems everywhere and the headline rate seems to be staying where it is, as much as I think this would be a daft decision.

Agreed, on the flip side you'd be expecting to see more significant drops by now to have confidence in holding. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Casual-observer

[Stewy]

On 14/09/2023 at 18:56, Stewy said:

They should cut, but we know they won't 

Crumbling inflation...electricity cheapest for years...get the cuts started ✓✓