HPC is off, according to the Guardian

[Smith]

"Mortgage providers have bet that rates will peak at a lower point than previously expected, and HMRC figures show that homebuyers have returned to the housing market, ending speculation of a collapse in prices."

So that's it, the speculation has ended. No more discussion required. Things aren't quite as bad as we thought a few weeks ago, and after one slightly better than expected inflation figure, this journalist can confidently say prices won't fall.

I wouldn't usually be so judgemental of a journalist, but this statement is idiotic.

[nero120]

Sounds like desperation! Have they not seen transaction numbers, and this is during the peak annual volume period! Inflation comes in waves, and we are already seeing energy and commodity prices rising again which will feed back into the inflation numbers in a few months.

If we get a cold winter it will really put the final nail in the coffin.

Edited July 30, 2023 by nero120

[Bob8]

25 minutes ago, Smith said:

"Mortgage providers have bet that rates will peak at a lower point than previously expected, and HMRC figures show that homebuyers have returned to the housing market, ending speculation of a collapse in prices."

So that's it, the speculation has ended. No more discussion required. Things aren't quite as bad as we thought a few weeks ago, and after one slightly better than expected inflation figure, this journalist can confidently say prices won't fall.

I wouldn't usually be so judgemental of a journalist, but this statement is idiotic.

I think it reflects how they see elevated prices and natural and normal.

If you think you see a UFO out your car, but then see it as a smudge on your windscreen, you probably just accept the smudge without investigated further.

[SE10]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/30/mortgage-rates-ease-as-bank-of-englands-bitter-medicine-shows-signs-of-working

[PeanutButter]

It’s an opinion piece.

[NoHPCinTheUK]

The logic behind this article is somehow interesting to analyse. 
 

IR are yet to peak, meaning borrowing is going to be more expensive in the future, by at least 0.75%. But houses which didn’t sell with rates at 5pc will now magically sell with rates at 5.75/6pc. 
 

The fundamentals of the mortgage market have changed permanently, but nobody want to notice. 
 

I do really wonder what is the purpose of talking the market up in these circumstances. I really don’t know. 

Edited July 30, 2023 by NoHPCinTheUK

[nero120]

4 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

The logic behind this article is somehow interesting to analyse. 
 

IR are yet to peak, meaning borrowing is going to be more expensive in the future, by at least 0.75%. But houses which didn’t sell with rates at 5pc will now magically sell with rates at 5.75/6pc. 
 

The fundamentals of the mortgage market have changed permanently, but nobody want to notice. 
 

I do really wonder what is the purpose of talking the market up in these circumstances. I really don’t know. 

The only way the housing market returns to their version of "normal" is for interest rates to tank back to near zero. I don't think anyone with any real sense sees this happening without massive inflation (if not hyperinflation), especially if the US doesn't play ball and do the same. In fact, Powell keeps saying more hikes are coming but the US stock market doesn't seem to want to notice, again betting that Powell will cut rates dramatically.

I honestly can't see how anyone with a property to sell can make a realistic offer because they have no real idea what they can feasibly sell their own property for. I think transaction numbers will tank further as sellers chase the market down to what current interest rates can sustain.

[NoHPCinTheUK]

7 minutes ago, nero120 said:

The only way the housing market returns to their version of "normal" is for interest rates to tank back to near zero. I don't think anyone with any real sense sees this happening without massive inflation (if not hyperinflation), especially if the US doesn't play ball and do the same. In fact, Powell keeps saying more hikes are coming but the US stock market doesn't seem to want to notice, again betting that Powell will cut rates dramatically.

I honestly can't see how anyone with a property to sell can make a realistic offer because they have no real idea what they can feasibly sell their own property for. I think transaction numbers will tank further as sellers chase the market down to what current interest rates can sustain.

Interesting point about Wall Street. 
 

The US economy is growing at a good pace, this is why the stock market is not noticing. Where do you think stocks should go if the economy keeps growing at 2pc per year? 
 

What we’re seeing today is that the REAL economy, the economy that produces REAL goods and services can function and produce value even at these rates. 

It’s the whole zombie apparatus, including the housing market and the fee-collector parasites around it that is suffering at the moment. And what we are noticing is that the economy in the US at least will get rid of the parasites without major shocks. Nobody is gonna cry for them.

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by NoHPCinTheUK

[Huggy]

Appreciate this is entirely anecdotal, and is tenuously linked to this story, but a house has popped up in the past week near me which I think has been the first one in about a decade where I have thought "that's cheap". It's not, and the asking price should be about half of what it is now, but if normalising this insanity can (momentarily) affect even the best people like me, then a presumably indebted Graun hack has no chance.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Huggy

[nero120]

8 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Interesting point about Wall Street. 
 

The US economy is growing at a good pace, this is why the stock market is not noticing. Where do you think stocks should go if the economy keeps growing at 2pc per year? 
 

What we’re seeing today is that the REAL economy, the economy that produces REAL goods and services can function and produce value even at these rates. 

It’s the whole zombie apparatus, including the housing market and the fee-collector parasites around it that is suffering at the moment. And what we are noticing is that the economy in the US at least will get rid of the parasites without major shocks. Nobody is gonna cry for them.

It's only growing because government spending is now about 50% of the US economy, and their deficits have gone mental under Biden. This is the problem with GDP as a measure, it's now basically a measure of debt-funded government spending (with a little bit of tax contributed by weighing heavily on a already poorly performing private sector).

The only question is, how long can the US government keep running such large deficits funded by issuing debt?

[The Angry Capitalist]

1 hour ago, Smith said:

"Mortgage providers have bet that rates will peak at a lower point than previously expected, and HMRC figures show that homebuyers have returned to the housing market, ending speculation of a collapse in prices."

So that's it, the speculation has ended. No more discussion required. Things aren't quite as bad as we thought a few weeks ago, and after one slightly better than expected inflation figure, this journalist can confidently say prices won't fall.

I wouldn't usually be so judgemental of a journalist, but this statement is idiotic.

Like mortgage providers have any idea about interest rates and where they are going.

Hardly anybody has a clue.

They are most likely to go a lot higher than most people think and for longer.

[Maghull Mike]

Oil going over $100, gas price will rocket as likely to be a much cooler winter this year Russian contract finish in 2024. Ukraine is finished as a large scale food producer for the time being, Russia shipping to "Nice nations)...............just smell the inflation coming....= more rates.

Mike

[nero120]

2 minutes ago, Maghull Mike said:

Oil going over $100, gas price will rocket as likely to be a much cooler winter this year Russian contract finish in 2024. Ukraine is finished as a large scale food producer for the time being, Russia shipping to "Nice nations)...............just smell the inflation coming....= more rates.

Mike

Yes I agree

[zugzwang]

13 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

Interesting point about Wall Street. 
 

The US economy is growing at a good pace, this is why the stock market is not noticing. Where do you think stocks should go if the economy keeps growing at 2pc per year? 
 

What we’re seeing today is that the REAL economy, the economy that produces REAL goods and services can function and produce value even at these rates. 

It’s the whole zombie apparatus, including the housing market and the fee-collector parasites around it that is suffering at the moment. And what we are noticing is that the economy in the US at least will get rid of the parasites without major shocks. Nobody is gonna cry for them.

 

Wrong.

The Fed has been pushing more credit into the market via RRP and FLHB than it's been withdrawing through QT.  An emergency rescue operation for the banks following the deposit crisis in March.

Coma Joe is still borrowing a trillion plus every six months to keep everyone in a job.

The largest 10% of US companies have barely seen their interest rates change (below).

Inflation is about to come roaring back.

 

 

 

[Up the spout]

Quote

The average rate on a two-year fixed mortgage deal edged lower on Friday to 6.81% compared with 6.86% on Wednesday, according to Moneyfacts data.

0.05% is barely a fluctuation - rates don't head up in a straight line.

[Maghull Mike]

I remember the 1970's.............high, then low.......then MEGA HIGH.

Rates then stayed HIGH for the next 10+ years

Mike

[Smith]

2 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

It’s an opinion piece.

I don't think it can be someone's opinion that speculation has ended. That's a statement of (incorrect) fact by the journalist.

[Jinxed]

The Guardian Moderators seem to frame the narrative according to their own political bias and presumably also their own financial interests?

The SOE states;

The Guardian probably gives the widest range of people the authority to decide whether the online item should be opened to comment, including section editor, page editor, article writer and, most frequently, the article sub-editor.

https://www.societyofeditors.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/SOE-Moderation-Guide.pdf

I think thats not what really happens.

There seem to be particular individuals, who are Moderators at the Guardian, and they seem to be the same one or two moderators who have been actively blocking comments under house price articles for 15-20 years.

There are also some newer people on the moderation team, (who, presumably are priced out) who read comments which their long time colleagues have disallowed, removed and banned, which they would deem to be perfectly allowable comments.

[PeanutButter]

The Observer is more moderate than The Guardian.

[cdd]

4 hours ago, Smith said:

"Mortgage providers have bet that rates will peak at a lower point than previously expected, and HMRC figures show that homebuyers have returned to the housing market, ending speculation of a collapse in prices."

So that's it, the speculation has ended. No more discussion required. Things aren't quite as bad as we thought a few weeks ago, and after one slightly better than expected inflation figure, this journalist can confidently say prices won't fall.

I wouldn't usually be so judgemental of a journalist, but this statement is idiotic.

Similar stories repeating the same in other papers. Inflation figure dropped a tiny bit more than expected, crisis over. It's absurd.

[dances with sheeple]

3 hours ago, Huggy said:

Appreciate this is entirely anecdotal, and is tenuously linked to this story, but a house has popped up in the past week near me which I think has been the first one in about a decade where I have thought "that's cheap". It's not, and the asking price should be about half of what it is now, but if normalising this insanity can (momentarily) affect even the best people like me, then a presumably indebted Graun hack has no chance.

Exactly, and many of these writers are in big mortgage debt themselves writing for people also in big mortgage debt, like a click bait sort of support group or something.

[dances with sheeple]

3 hours ago, Maghull Mike said:

Oil going over $100, gas price will rocket as likely to be a much cooler winter this year Russian contract finish in 2024. Ukraine is finished as a large scale food producer for the time being, Russia shipping to "Nice nations)...............just smell the inflation coming....= more rates.

Mike

And Japan has started "surprising" the market again with yield control tweaks, changes to that or dropping it all together would send mortgage rates much higher?

[70PC]

4 hours ago, Smith said:

"Mortgage providers have bet that rates will peak at a lower point than previously expected, and HMRC figures show that homebuyers have returned to the housing market, ending speculation of a collapse in prices."

So that's it, the speculation has ended. No more discussion required. Things aren't quite as bad as we thought a few weeks ago, and after one slightly better than expected inflation figure, this journalist can confidently say prices won't fall.

I wouldn't usually be so judgemental of a journalist, but this statement is idiotic.

Mr Micawber's words were "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds nought and six, result misery."

Pudits go to extrodinary lengths to sustain the property bubble. The reality is that a house price crash would go a long way to reducing financial stresses i.e., happiness.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/millions-facing-debt-timebomb-face-30579696

[Bob8]

2 hours ago, Jinxed said:

The Guardian Moderators seem to frame the narrative according to their own political bias and presumably also their own financial interests?

The SOE states;

The Guardian probably gives the widest range of people the authority to decide whether the online item should be opened to comment, including section editor, page editor, article writer and, most frequently, the article sub-editor.

https://www.societyofeditors.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/SOE-Moderation-Guide.pdf

I think thats not what really happens.

There seem to be particular individuals, who are Moderators at the Guardian, and they seem to be the same one or two moderators who have been actively blocking comments under house price articles for 15-20 years.

There are also some newer people on the moderation team, (who, presumably are priced out) who read comments which their long time colleagues have disallowed, removed and banned, which they would deem to be perfectly allowable comments.

These things are rarely a conspiracy, people just bring their own baggage.

Many years ago, in the late 1990s the TV and newspapers were going crazy that Saracens were going to have the biggest rugby club crowd of 25,000 for a league game ever. It was hyped up as huge, that this 20K crowd was incredible. On the day, there was hype around the game and the crowd that would be almost 20K. Once the game was played there were big reports on the news of the game and the record breaking 17K crowd.

On the same day, Bradford played Leeds rugby league in front of 23K and the result was not even read out.

It was not a deliberate thing, but that a rugby league game might be a bigger deal was something they could not conceive of.

That is how bias works, the perception is skewed and the reporting follows.

[fellow]

5 hours ago, NoHPCinTheUK said:

I do really wonder what is the purpose of talking the market up in these circumstances. I really don’t know. 

The Guardian has always given the appearence of supporting social justice whilst at the same time supporting high house prices (I assume due to their own vested interests). They are the very definition of 'chamoagne socialists'.

Edited July 30, 2023 by fellow