Patfig Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Armus said: Not with the third of the population who rent. Oh yeah.............. like me 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Insane Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, Unmoderated said: Eh? Wind yer neck in Blobsy I think if you've read some of my posts you'll see I've changed my tune on inflation. I'm aligned with Scottbeard as of a few weeks ago. Core inflation did surprise on the upside and I think we're going to get another 0.5% this year. I would really like for house prices to drop 30% nominally. I can actually see it happening now but these things are fast up and slow down. My view is the most totally f***ed group are the interest only BTLs. I have heard stories within my network already of people with places that are not washing their face. Only a matter of time until they're fire selling to get what they can back or end up defaulting and being repo'd. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. Anyway, that's the forced sellers required to start the storm. Markets price as margins so that will be that. FTBers and MEWers will be in -ve equity. The HPC of 2023-25 is nailed on but you've not won until you've won. To that you need to buy a house at the bottom. Some on here have big savings and are ready to go. Good for them! I wasted many years reading this site and making my own decisions on a crash that never materialised. Now it's here I am thankful I'm in a relatively strong financial position. Contrary to your assumptions I'm not an EA (but I was for a brief period many years ago and it gave a very useful insight into the market). I'm a chartered accountant these days. No job is safe but I've been in role for coming up 10 years. They could make me redundant but that would be expensive and I've got a lot of savings right now since I was hoping to renovate the house. Not going to happen now though. Roll on the crash. It'll be even better in real terms. P.S. When I come off my fixed rate in 3.5 years it would be rather nice if inflation is under control and interest rates back to 1%. Just for January 2027. Do calm down your going to need medication in a minute for blood pressure. He only accused you of being an EA no different from you accusing me of being up to my neck in property yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted June 22, 2023 Author Share Posted June 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, Unmoderated said: Eh? Wind yer neck in Blobsy I think if you've read some of my posts you'll see I've changed my tune on inflation. I'm aligned with Scottbeard as of a few weeks ago. Core inflation did surprise on the upside and I think we're going to get another 0.5% this year. I would really like for house prices to drop 30% nominally. I can actually see it happening now but these things are fast up and slow down. My view is the most totally f***ed group are the interest only BTLs. I have heard stories within my network already of people with places that are not washing their face. Only a matter of time until they're fire selling to get what they can back or end up defaulting and being repo'd. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. Anyway, that's the forced sellers required to start the storm. Markets price as margins so that will be that. FTBers and MEWers will be in -ve equity. The HPC of 2023-25 is nailed on but you've not won until you've won. To that you need to buy a house at the bottom. Some on here have big savings and are ready to go. Good for them! I wasted many years reading this site and making my own decisions on a crash that never materialised. Now it's here I am thankful I'm in a relatively strong financial position. Contrary to your assumptions I'm not an EA (but I was for a brief period many years ago and it gave a very useful insight into the market). I'm a chartered accountant these days. No job is safe but I've been in role for coming up 10 years. They could make me redundant but that would be expensive and I've got a lot of savings right now since I was hoping to renovate the house. Not going to happen now though. Roll on the crash. It'll be even better in real terms. P.S. When I come off my fixed rate in 3.5 years it would be rather nice if inflation is under control and interest rates back to 1%. Just for January 2027. I struggle to see 30% nominal falls without a HUGE recession/financial crisis. Nominal falls are hard to get due to the fact that money is always constantly becoming less valuable as people get paid more nominally etc. Real (vs earnings) prices are what matters. I think we do see some nominal falls but I'd see it in the 10-20% range depending on how things progress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bomberbrown Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 22 minutes ago, cdd said: Any bailing out, anything which makes this easier, will lead to interest rates being higher for longer. They cannot print their way out this time. Nor can they do "emergency low rates" (15 years of that helped cause this mess) This! ^ Either we all, to varying degrees, accept the pain/cold turkey NOW or run the real risk of some batshit crazy inflation/hyper inflation a bit later. The party’s over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unmoderated Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 minute ago, henry the king said: I struggle to see 30% nominal falls without a HUGE recession/financial crisis. Nominal falls are hard to get due to the fact that money is always constantly becoming less valuable as people get paid more nominally etc. Real (vs earnings) prices are what matters. I think we do see some nominal falls but I'd see it in the 10-20% range depending on how things progress. Really depends on how much 'help' government gives. BTL is the epic risk here. Run down properties that haven't been well maintained - just the minimum - for years will struggle to sell at what even a bank might value them. That's where the forced sellers will be. The top end also looks very fragile. Lots of IO and/or high multiple mortgages were only available to people on large salaries. I'm seeing a lot of big and impressive houses around me come up and sit on the market (£2M+ bracket in Berkshire). 30% would be the most extreme end. As you point out (rightly imho) what matters is real prices. They're down a lot already. It is even possible that nominal falls are curtailed to sub double figures if wages continue to rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, bomberbrown said: This! ^ Either we all, to varying degrees, accept the pain/cold turkey NOW or run the real risk of some batshit crazy inflation/hyper inflation a bit later. The party’s over. 100% agree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted June 22, 2023 Author Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Unmoderated said: Really depends on how much 'help' government gives. BTL is the epic risk here. Run down properties that haven't been well maintained - just the minimum - for years will struggle to sell at what even a bank might value them. That's where the forced sellers will be. The top end also looks very fragile. Lots of IO and/or high multiple mortgages were only available to people on large salaries. I'm seeing a lot of big and impressive houses around me come up and sit on the market (£2M+ bracket in Berkshire). 30% would be the most extreme end. As you point out (rightly imho) what matters is real prices. They're down a lot already. It is even possible that nominal falls are curtailed to sub double figures if wages continue to rise. I wouldn't rule out 30-40% falls vs earnings. In fact I would guess this is where it ends. Then I do not think there will be another bubble for a while. I think prices will then just bump along at that real terms level. We are already 10% down vs earnings or so. I think we see another 15% vs earnings in the next 6-9 months (mainly nominal) and then another 10% probably in real terms after that (some nominal and some real). Making prices 35% less vs earnings would be a huge reset of house prices imo. And I think that is the outcome from an end to free money. End of an era basically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1st rule of banking don't panic, .........................2nd rule, panic 1st! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satsuma Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 No-one would have believed at the start of the twenties (2020s) that the UK would be attacked on several fronts, by uncontrollable inflation, increased cost of business (Brexit) and increasing interest rates, no-one would have believed that the population were so ill prepared for the increase in household spending on food and interest. No-one would have believed that the government had nothing left in the pot, to fight the coming drop, after a three year pandemic. This is what I think, Im waiting for some spiffing government wheeze to keep the plates spinning. Im hoping this does not come, they are saying there's no more house related government money so fingers crossed. Personally, I would like to see normality Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ftb_fml Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, SickOfWaiting said: Even if house price crash to 1997 levels i personally have lost, as have many on here who waited too long, along with the 2 generations of people who have been price out and having to move about with their kids, or people who have just given up on life due to the UK's insane housing situation. Society might win if there is a significant HPC from here, though we're still waiting for that. +1, when the thing you've desperately been waiting for was a given for many of the previous generation in their early '20s. Yes it's a welcome relative win to finally get there (assuming we do), but that won't bring back the lost decades of zero security or stability, money pissed away on rent, neutered personal development through living with parents.. I offered 12% below asking on a flat in february, which was rejected. Funnily enough got an email from the agents this afternoon stating that "they could probably" get an offer of 10% below asking accepted. Seems they know the game is up.. Edited June 22, 2023 by ftb_fml Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Angry Capitalist Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Nomadd said: lastminutewednesday · Today 15:24 We are in a similar boat to you Chulak. We didn't have a crystal ball when we took out out 5 year fix and it's now due to end next year and we are going to be a bit screwed. https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4833052-mad-mortgage-sob-stories-what-am-i-missing?page=8 Many over leveraged to the hilt. All this demand and "growth" has been fueled by debt. People remortgaging on interest only so they can get a new extension and a loft conversion. They are going to end up owing hundreds of thousands when the house values will be worth less than their debt. Their monthly payments are really going to screw them at these new rates. The wealth effect is slowly reaching its inevitable destination: poverty and bankruptcy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Angry Capitalist Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Nomadd said: lastminutewednesday · Today 15:24 We are in a similar boat to you Chulak. We didn't have a crystal ball when we took out out 5 year fix and it's now due to end next year and we are going to be a bit screwed. https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4833052-mad-mortgage-sob-stories-what-am-i-missing?page=8 Many over leveraged to the hilt. All this demand and "growth" has been fueled by debt. People remortgaging on interest only so they can get a new extension and a loft conversion. They are going to end up owing hundreds of thousands when the house values will be worth less than their debt. Their monthly payments are really going to screw them at these new rates. The wealth effect is slowly reaching its inevitable destination: poverty and bankruptcy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Angry Capitalist Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Nomadd said: lastminutewednesday · Today 15:24 We are in a similar boat to you Chulak. We didn't have a crystal ball when we took out out 5 year fix and it's now due to end next year and we are going to be a bit screwed. https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4833052-mad-mortgage-sob-stories-what-am-i-missing?page=8 Many over leveraged to the hilt. All this demand and "growth" has been fueled by debt. People remortgaging on interest only so they can get a new extension and a loft conversion. They are going to end up owing hundreds of thousands when the house values will be worth less than their debt. Their monthly payments are really going to screw them at these new rates. The wealth effect is slowly reaching its inevitable destination: poverty and bankruptcy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Angry Capitalist Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Nomadd said: lastminutewednesday · Today 15:24 We are in a similar boat to you Chulak. We didn't have a crystal ball when we took out out 5 year fix and it's now due to end next year and we are going to be a bit screwed. https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4833052-mad-mortgage-sob-stories-what-am-i-missing?page=8 Many over leveraged to the hilt. All this demand and "growth" has been fueled by debt. People remortgaging on interest only so they can get a new extension and a loft conversion. They are going to end up owing hundreds of thousands when the house values will be worth less than their debt. Their monthly payments are really going to screw them at these new rates. The wealth effect is slowly reaching its inevitable destination: poverty and bankruptcy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Angry Capitalist Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Nomadd said: lastminutewednesday · Today 15:24 We are in a similar boat to you Chulak. We didn't have a crystal ball when we took out out 5 year fix and it's now due to end next year and we are going to be a bit screwed. https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4833052-mad-mortgage-sob-stories-what-am-i-missing?page=8 Many over leveraged to the hilt. All this demand and "growth" has been fueled by debt. People remortgaging on interest only so they can get a new extension and a loft conversion. They are going to end up owing hundreds of thousands when the house values will be worth less than their debt. Their monthly payments are really going to screw them at these new rates. The wealth effect is slowly reaching its inevitable destination: poverty and bankruptcy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Angry Capitalist Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Nomadd said: lastminutewednesday · Today 15:24 We are in a similar boat to you Chulak. We didn't have a crystal ball when we took out out 5 year fix and it's now due to end next year and we are going to be a bit screwed. https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4833052-mad-mortgage-sob-stories-what-am-i-missing?page=8 Many over leveraged to the hilt. All this demand and "growth" has been fueled by debt. People remortgaging on interest only so they can get a new extension and a loft conversion. They are going to end up owing hundreds of thousands when the house values will be worth less than their debt. Their monthly payments are really going to screw them at these new rates. The wealth effect is slowly reaching its inevitable destination: poverty and bankruptcy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SickOfWaiting Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, ftb_fml said: +1, when the thing you're desperately been waiting for was a given for many of the previous generation in their early '20s. Yes it's a welcome relative win to finally get there (assuming we do), but that won't bring back the lost decades of zero security or stability, money pissed away on rent, neutered personal development through living with parents.. I offered 12% below asking on a flat in february, which was rejected. Funnily enough got an email from the agents this afternoon stating that "they could probably" get an offer of 10% below asking accepted. Seems they know the game is up.. If its 10% below what you offered in February it might give you something to think about. Anyway i wish you well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted June 22, 2023 Author Share Posted June 22, 2023 36 minutes ago, ftb_fml said: +1, when the thing you've desperately been waiting for was a given for many of the previous generation in their early '20s. Yes it's a welcome relative win to finally get there (assuming we do), but that won't bring back the lost decades of zero security or stability, money pissed away on rent, neutered personal development through living with parents.. I offered 12% below asking on a flat in february, which was rejected. Funnily enough got an email from the agents this afternoon stating that "they could probably" get an offer of 10% below asking accepted. Seems they know the game is up.. Which means 12% below asking would 100% be accepted. This is evidence for how a HPC will actually be quite rapid in the next few months. Just like after the mini budget. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Stars_Are_Aligning Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 (Un)surprisingly, according to the latest Rightmove email the Game isn't over just yet henry the king: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/articles/property-news/interest-rates-rise-2023/?utm_source=uknewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletterjun423&utm_content=interestrateannouncement "What’s happening in the property market? Our real-time data allows us to see what’s happening in the property market right now. “We can see that more people are sending enquiries to estate agents to view homes for sale than at this time in 2019. We’ve also seen visits to our Mortgage in Principle service increase by 53% over the last month, as more people look to understand what they can afford to borrow and repay on a mortgage. This indicates to us that for many people right now, higher interest rates are leading them to reassess their budgets and understand what feels comfortable from a personal affordability perspective, rather than put their plans on hold,” Matt adds." Can't wait to see their comments in the coming months when it starts to get nasty........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trampa501 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Any sightings of Game Over at Mumsnet yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 How many chains will be broken......gazundering replacing gazumping. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazumping#Gazundering Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SickOfWaiting Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, winkie said: How many chains will be broken......gazundering replacing gazumping. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazumping#Gazundering Im seeing less than ever come back on the market. Maybe because less houses are being sold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 (edited) I wonder if Kids TV will change to reflect the "New world" we are now in? Bob the builder ...................becomes................... Len the liquidator........... Edited June 22, 2023 by Maghull Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted June 22, 2023 Author Share Posted June 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, winkie said: How many chains will be broken......gazundering replacing gazumping. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazumping#Gazundering A lot of people will now get cold feet if they weren't already. I'd expect a lot of people pulling out as a result. We hit a tipping point with the big inflation data a month ago. This was backed up by the wage and inflation data in the last week and now the BoE hammer blow which meant 6% terminal rate looked reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armus Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Social Justice League said: 100% agree. The idiots are still delivering their opinion during voxpops on BBC News: “They helped during Covid”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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