henry the king Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 I am declaring victory for those who think a house price correction will be good news for the country in the long term. It is over. Free money is over and isn't coming back anytime soon. Rates will be higher for longer. 5% will be normal. The end of globalisation is the cause. They got away with QE and 0% rates due to Russian energy and Chinese goods. That is no longer the same. They had 3 options to deal with inflation: 1, Cuts and tax rises so everyone shares the burden and demand is reduced across the board. This wasn't politically sustainable as it would annoy everyone. 2, Let inflation run hot - this was never an option as it would spiral out of control. Inflation hits 100% of people. This was never an option. 3, Rise interest rates - this means the debtors in loads of debt are scheduled for financial annihilation. The demand destruction won't come from EVERYONE taking a hit. It will come from only those in big debt taking a monster hit. That is how they are going to bring inflation down. Option 3 was selected. A HPC is certain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spxy Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Just a reminder, markets are not rational. Its not over till its over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 It always should be debtors who pay the price. The liability is on them, not the guy with no debt. This 'borrowing worthless fiat at under 1% to buy into a ponzi' nonsense has went on far, far too long and has all but destroyed the whole fecking country. Disgusting what has went on for 25 bloody years....ffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted June 22, 2023 Author Share Posted June 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Social Justice League said: It always should be debtors who pay the price. The liability is on them, not the guy with no debt. This 'borrowing worthless fiat at under 1% to buy into a ponzi' nonsense has went on far, far too long and has all but destroyed the whole fecking country. Disgusting what has went on for 25 bloody years....ffs. Free money era is completely over now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oliver Sutton Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, henry the king said: Free money era is completely over now. Let's hope so. The morons should have raised rate by .25% every six months or so over the last dozen years. Anyone who couldn't cope with that is obviously an idiot and not worth caring about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SickOfWaiting Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Even if house price crash to 1997 levels i personally have lost, as have many on here who waited too long, along with the 2 generations of people who have been price out and having to move about with their kids, or people who have just given up on life due to the UK's insane housing situation. Society might win if there is a significant HPC from here, though we're still waiting for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 I shall raise a large glass of whisky for every rise the Bank have made in the 2020s tonight. I hope tomorrow morning doesn't involve anything too taxing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 HTK, what about the return of the KING? (Gold) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Hmmmm.......................all those lease hire BMW/Audi/Merc .......Renault Zoe now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armus Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 48 minutes ago, henry the king said: They had 3 options to deal with inflation: 1, Cuts and tax rises so everyone shares the burden and demand is reduced across the board. This wasn't politically sustainable as it would annoy everyone. They could start with more council tax bands and re-banding at 2023 values. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 50 minutes ago, henry the king said: I am declaring victory for those who think a house price correction will be good news for the country in the long term. It is over. Free money is over and isn't coming back anytime soon. Rates will be higher for longer. 5% will be normal. The end of globalisation is the cause. They got away with QE and 0% rates due to Russian energy and Chinese goods. That is no longer the same. They had 3 options to deal with inflation: 1, Cuts and tax rises so everyone shares the burden and demand is reduced across the board. This wasn't politically sustainable as it would annoy everyone. 2, Let inflation run hot - this was never an option as it would spiral out of control. Inflation hits 100% of people. This was never an option. 3, Rise interest rates - this means the debtors in loads of debt are scheduled for financial annihilation. The demand destruction won't come from EVERYONE taking a hit. It will come from only those in big debt taking a monster hit. That is how they are going to bring inflation down. Option 3 was selected. A HPC is certain. It’s not over till Mumsnet surrender Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, SickOfWaiting said: Even if house price crash to 1997 levels i personally have lost, as have many on here who waited too long, along with the 2 generations of people who have been price out and having to move about with their kids, or people who have just given up on life due to the UK's insane housing situation. Society might win if there is a significant HPC from here, though we're still waiting for that. How long have you been waiting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GenZ Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 What happens if we have peace in Ukraine and global energy prices tank, china opens back up properly, supply chain sorts it's self. Inflation drops off cliff. Interests will go back to around 3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debtslave Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, shlomo said: It’s not over till Mumsnet surrender DH is fuming that they keep raising rates for no reason etc.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, henry the king said: The end of globalisation is the cause Firstly, I am not sure we'll see a huge nominal falls crash which seems to be what most of this site wants. More like we'll see a 5-15% nominal crash with much more in real terms. This will make houses more affordable. Secondly, I am doubtful it is the end of globalisation. Globalisation started when the first tribes started swapping weapons for fruit and continued since then. It will always be in humans interest to trade more widely and the pressure to do so will be impossible to suppress, in my humble opinion. So globalisation, again, in my opinion, is virtually a law of nature. It may contract in a periodic manner, but inevitably we'll continue to become more interconnected. Edited June 22, 2023 by dugsbody Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Just now, debtslave said: DH is fuming that they keep raising rates for no reason etc.... One the of the girls I work with is on a fixed rate and paying 1.5% which end in September (or October) she is very scared I told her to fix again, she said she was getting 6% I told her interest rates are going up on Thursday, she gave me a blank look, I did not see her today but can imagine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 & we got an Energy crisis coming & we have to pay in GOLD not FIAT for stuff......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SickOfWaiting Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, dugsbody said: Firstly, I am not sure we'll see a huge nominal falls crash which seems to be what most of this site wants. More like we'll see a 5-15% nominal crash with much more in real terms. This will make houses more affordable. Secondly, I am doubtful it is the end of globalisation. Globalisation started when the first tribes started swapping weapons for fruit and continued since then. It will always be in humans interest to trade more widely and the pressure to do so will be impossible to suppress, in my humble opinion. So globalisation, again, in my opinion, is virtually a law of nature. It may contract in a periodic manner, but inevitably we'll continue to become more interconnected. That was because people in Country A had fruit that they couldn't produce in Country B. That kind of globalism is good. We could make "stuff" in Britain but our glorious leaders thought it better to close "stuff" factories down, as it was more profitable for them to make them in Asia. Then we had to borrow more money to pay these British workers to sit on the dole, which after 40 years of doing this has led to a country where less people are willing to work, and over 50% of the population are reliant on benefits to live (and that doesnt include the millions of public/private sector non jobs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blobsy Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 (edited) Quick, someone tell Unmoderated 20something Gen Z Zone 3 bloke any more? Mind you, prob knocked off early, bit hot in the Basingstoke EA office today. Edited June 22, 2023 by Blobsy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SickOfWaiting Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Maghull Mike said: & we got an Energy crisis coming & we have to pay in GOLD not FIAT for stuff......... Dont worry Starmer is going to turn us into a green super power, though he's yet to explain where the energy will come from to make all these windmills etc.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Oh, News FLASH Baliey now sez its the fault of all those workers going on strike to demand wage rises to cover the inflation caused by HIS money printing...... May be he should start giving out "WIN" badges (Bas*rd) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walki Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 hour ago, henry the king said: I am declaring victory for those who think a house price correction will be good news for the country in the long term. It is over. Free money is over and isn't coming back anytime soon. Rates will be higher for longer. 5% will be normal. The end of globalisation is the cause. They got away with QE and 0% rates due to Russian energy and Chinese goods. That is no longer the same. They had 3 options to deal with inflation: 1, Cuts and tax rises so everyone shares the burden and demand is reduced across the board. This wasn't politically sustainable as it would annoy everyone. 2, Let inflation run hot - this was never an option as it would spiral out of control. Inflation hits 100% of people. This was never an option. 3, Rise interest rates - this means the debtors in loads of debt are scheduled for financial annihilation. The demand destruction won't come from EVERYONE taking a hit. It will come from only those in big debt taking a monster hit. That is how they are going to bring inflation down. Option 3 was selected. A HPC is certain. It's taken a while I have been reading HPC since 2003. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
regprentice Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 1 hour ago, henry the king said: I am declaring victory for those who think a house price correction will be good news for the country in the long term. It is over.... Agree 100%....But it could be 5 years until its over for everyone. It's either crash with no recovery in the foreseeable future or its a long slow grind downwards we will see a lot more articles like this recent FT article. it'll take 5 years for everyone to feel that pain equally, but the pain wont stop. Its now a locked in inevitability whether you've 5 months or 5 years left on your mortgage fix Mass UK house repossessions unlikely despite soaring mortgage rates ....while borrowers face higher costs, the mortgage crunch has not yet translated into mass repossessions. Just 1,250 mortgaged properties were taken into possession in the first three months of this year, according to industry group UK Finance. This was 50 per cent up on the previous quarter, but compared with the numbers that lost their homes during the recession that began in 1990 — the historic peak of repossessions — it barely registers. Between 1991 and 1993 some 188,600 homes were repossessed by lenders, according to UK Finance. The reasons for this apparent difference lie in mortgage market trends, the history of house prices and hard-hitting regulatory reforms, market experts say. But they cautioned that there was plenty of room for uncertainty given the unpredictable economic outlook, particularly over jobs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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