FED What are we expecting today

[Patfig]

+0.5%?

I cant see another post on this and it seems like its quite an important day.

 

Housing market here seems to be stalling thankfully.

 

PF

[bomberbrown]

96.6% chance of no change!

However, next meeting they are going up and most likely staying there for the next three meetings. 
 

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Edited June 14, 2023 by bomberbrown

[bomberbrown]

Annoyingly, you cant link to it directly, but click on ‘Probabilities’ on the left hand side of my link above

Edited June 14, 2023 by bomberbrown

[Patfig]

So if they hold would that give Bailey et al the signal to copy? Do they have the cahones to raise in such circumstances?

[scottbeard]

2 minutes ago, Patfig said:

So if they hold would that give Bailey et al the signal to copy? Do they have the cahones to raise in such circumstances?

The fed can maybe hold because inflation there is down to 4% 

We have inflation at 9%, wages rising 7%, core inflation at 6-7% and rising, and we historically need rates above the US and they're below.

So what probably should happen is hold for them and plus 0.5 for us

I feel we will only go 0.25 but you never know.  

[Maghull Mike]

?

What are we doing?

[simon99]

Markets all surprisingly resilient. Look at the NASDAQ, up 30% this year in the face of rising rates, DOW up on the year too. 

Edited June 14, 2023 by simon99

[Stewy]

That Plateau at the Fed gives the BoE a buffer next week I'm afraid. 

[Pixie1]

Feels like BoE is going to go with no raise despite one being needed

[Maghull Mike]

hOLDING....................BLAST ;(

[regprentice]

hold today but they indicated 2 more rate increases this year with rates peaking at 5.5% / 5.75%

[Blobsy]

When's the next uk inflation print? BOE can of course use the fed as an excuse to follow suit but we are in a particularly bad pickle in this country.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Blobsy

[Shrink Proof]

6 minutes ago, Pixie1 said:

Feels like BoE is going to go with no raise despite one being needed

But they will be vigilant.

 

So that's OK, isn't it?

[bomberbrown]

Edited June 14, 2023 by bomberbrown

[Patfig]

45 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

The fed can maybe hold because inflation there is down to 4% 

We have inflation at 9%, wages rising 7%, core inflation at 6-7% and rising, and we historically need rates above the US and they're below.

So what probably should happen is hold for them and plus 0.5 for us

I feel we will only go 0.25 but you never know.  

So a hold by BOE would be a cop out / detrimental.

[bomberbrown]

FWIW, I don’t think the BoE will hold next week, despite the FED decision.  BoE are constantly playing catch up and they know it. I actually think they could do a 0.5% increase next week and that would definitely set the cat amongst the pigeons! Bring it on!!

[TheResponsibleHouseBuyer]

ahhhhhh BOE will bottle it. Time for a Baileys from Mr Bailey.

[cdd]

If we are lucky, the BoE will surprise with a 0.5 rise, despite the fed holding. Expect the unexpected.

[24gray24]

A crook would use any excuse not to raise. 

 

 

[Gemma Rose]

That was a very hawkish  pause by the Feds. They are just catching their breath for more rises (minimum of two this year imo) . Jerome Powell made it very clear he did not see any lowering of interest rates this year at all.

How does this affect the Bank of England ?.  Well our inflation is so much worse than the USA and I feel BOE has been signalling more rises this week (interviews with various members ) so it will be 0.25 but there is a possibility  they could go for 0.5.

[2buyornot2buy]

BoE .25% is a cert. .5% at a push. 

[Timm]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

The fed can maybe hold because inflation there is down to 4% 

We have inflation at 9%, wages rising 7%, core inflation at 6-7% and rising, and we historically need rates above the US and they're below.

So what probably should happen is hold for them and plus 0.5 for us

I feel we will only go 0.25 but you never know.  

I agree with all of that.

BOE need to salvage credibility.

If they hold, then you are going to see a Truss style melt up in gilt yields and swaps - on top of the current levels. Then they would have to raise rates an eye-watering amount to prevent total loss of faith in the pound and capital flight. I just don't think they will do this. When the report comes out, I doubt you will see any votes for a pause at all. Well, maybe one...

If they had any sense, they would go for shock and awe with a 50bps rise, but 25 is more likely.

[The Angry Capitalist]

Markets are pricing in higher rates for UK going forward.

 

[Rolypoly]

UK interest rates will remain high for years, says former Bank of England governor

UK consumers should expect to pay higher interest rates for years to come, according to former Bank of England governor Mark Carney. 

In an interview to be broadcasted on ITV this evening, the former central bank chief said the UK is “going to be paying higher rates of interest for their debt for the foreseeable future”. 

Mr Carney said consumers should not measure borrowing cost increases in 12 or 24 month cycles, Bloomberg reported.

It comes as stubborn inflation and surprisingly strong wage data increases pressure on the Bank of England to continue raising interest rates.

[Social Justice League]

The BOE need to go +1%.