Maghull Mike Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Want a Pub? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11854037/Pub-chain-Marstons-puts-60-pubs-sale-local-list.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) 17 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said: Yes. Real businesses making ACTUAL profits are not down. It's the financial Ponzi scheme built on debt that is collapsing. Give me 3 reasons why I shouldn't buy Coca Cola today. It rots teeth . Yields less than a 1yr savings account Exchange rate fees.  I know very little about banking, but doesn't seem like big UK lenders are particularly spooked. LLoyds still up YTD for instance    Edited March 13, 2023 by mynamehere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 FT - Investors slash Fed rate rise bets on fallout from Silicon Valley Bank collapse Goldman Sachs predicts central bank will pause its tightening later this month due to banking system stress https://archive.is/tXfUY#selection-1453.0-1459.107 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, 24gray24 said: Wasn't she in charge of something like assessing risk? Bah - What does risk assessment have to do with a bank collapsing, you misogynistic racist!?   🤣🤡 Clearly the bank collapsed because of the patriarchy and white privilege.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Here goes another one ... First Republic Bank teetering:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-13/first-republic-says-fed-jpmorgan-push-liquidity-to-70-billion  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said: FT - Investors slash Fed rate rise bets on fallout from Silicon Valley Bank collapse Goldman Sachs predicts central bank will pause its tightening later this month due to banking system stress https://archive.is/tXfUY#selection-1453.0-1459.107 Goldman Sachs predicts central bank WILL STEAL FROM THE POOR RATHER THAN THE RICH LOSING OUT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said: Goldman Sachs predicts central bank WILL STEAL FROM THE POOR RATHER THAN THE RICH LOSING OUT  Say it ain't so! Lawks a mercy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sour Mash said: Here goes another one ... First Republic Bank teetering:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-13/first-republic-says-fed-jpmorgan-push-liquidity-to-70-billion  Jesus, look at that share price drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 35 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said: Yes. Real businesses making ACTUAL profits are not down. Give me 3 reasons why I shouldn't buy Coca Cola today. It’s bad for your teeth? 🤣 Seriously I agree with you.  I can’t see how these events are anything significant Good quality shares remain good quality Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHPCinTheUK Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Normal bank until covid. Then they got covered with new deposits, I guess their balance sheet just exploded. They must have given money to shitty silicon valley start ups (they're based in SF) or bought US bonds. Look at the real value of those assets now. Going back to HPC, how many lenders, mortgage brokers, builders saw the same pattern? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, Sour Mash said: Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bomberbrown Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said: FT - Investors slash Fed rate rise bets on fallout from Silicon Valley Bank collapse Goldman Sachs predicts central bank will pause its tightening later this month due to banking system stress https://archive.is/tXfUY#selection-1453.0-1459.107 Indeed. Â Odds on .25% increase now compared to .50% a few days ago. Â Â https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Edited March 13, 2023 by bomberbrown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yelims Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, bomberbrown said: Indeed.  Odds on .25% increase now compared to .50% a few days ago.   https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Which is great news for stocks and crypto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, bomberbrown said: Indeed. Â Odds on .25% increase now compared to .50% a few days ago. Â Â https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Takes us back about a week or so! Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 32 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said: Normal bank until covid. Then they got covered with new deposits, I guess their balance sheet just exploded. They must have given money to shitty silicon valley start ups (they're based in SF) or bought US bonds. Look at the real value of those assets now. Going back to HPC, how many lenders, mortgage brokers, builders saw the same pattern?  They bought US Treasury Bonds (ie loaned long) to balance a lot of their deposit liabilities (ie borrowed short) which then lost market value once Interest rates started to rise. That's actually what a bank is supposed to do but a combination of 'unforeseen consequences' of various stupid Fed decisions plus a general economic downturn have screwed them. Probably made quite a few poor lending decisions to the private sector too. Pretty sure I've heard a few pundits saying their risk management was atrocious.  On the other hand, they were very good with the Diversity Inclusion and Equity stuff.   Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blobsy Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, bomberbrown said: Indeed. Â Odds on .25% increase now compared to .50% a few days ago. Â Â https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html CPI print tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallingAwake Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 But I thought CPI was coming down to 2% shortly... ... ....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ah-so Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Sour Mash said: Bah - What does risk assessment have to do with a bank collapsing, you misogynistic racist!?   🤣🤡 Clearly the bank collapsed because of the patriarchy and white privilege.  Do you really think that someone in middle management in the small London subsidiary would be responsible for monitoring the $200bn dollar balance sheet of the head office? Obviously not. So why did the Daily Mail focus on someone who clearly isn't responsible, when the people actually responsible are every easy to identify i.e. Group CEO, Group CFO, Group Treasurer, Group CRO, and Group Head of financial risk management. But even those people in risk still are ultimately told what to do by the CEO - they can't overrule him. So, perhaps I should ask again, why did the Mail ignore the people who would have been responsible, and instead target someone who is very unlikely to have been responsible, but who happens to be a a female, gay, ethnic minority? 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Sour Mash said: Here goes another one ... First Republic Bank teetering:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-13/first-republic-says-fed-jpmorgan-push-liquidity-to-70-billion  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Who is AIG this time around? Who's been acting as insurer of last resort to all the bags? Is it Credit Suisse? Is it the Bank of Japan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Is it the Front Running Man, Warren Buffoon? The Orifice of Omaha is invested in a TON of insurers, right? Â "Hey, kids. Monopolies are anti-capitalist, except all the ones I own." Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Fromage Frais said: Maybe in your area. in this area we just have loads of houses for 500/600/700 sitting there for ages. Seen a couple sell when reduced to 400-450 but the rest still sit there with the odd SSTC from last year joining them. 550 > 450 circa 20% already if a probate or you need to sell. Lower end down less and new builds on some sites 10% down with incentives and still not moving en masse. As posted earlier a house I bid on in Jan last year just appeared on the land reg with a completed date of September. Peak Q1 but appeared as sold end of 22 so stats are out of date and this has created a zombie market. My 2p is still very much on further faster falls once Q3/Q4 sold prices appear on the land registry and if rates rise further. Â Cheaper money is going to be harder to find unless they start printing again even more so after the recent banking fun and games. Â We have seen a crash that is ongoing. But its not the REAL crash people have said on here. For me, its enough and a very good crash. But I thought 2019 was a reasonable level for house prices. And we will likely be back to that vs wages pretty quickly. So I'd call that a crash. But some talk on here has been of a legit 30% nominal crash or more. And for that I think we need the recession/banking crisis. So the recent news puts us closer to that than at any time in the last decade. Still might not materialise but recent events have kind of changed the equation and changed what metrics we need to be looking at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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