Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

It's Halifax-Index-Eve (next thrilling installment in this tragi-comedy out 7am tomorrow) - place your bets now!


Recommended Posts

0
HOLA441
1
HOLA442
2
HOLA443
3
HOLA444

1% negative prices, huge slide in demand for mortgages, "homeowners under pressure as inflation still remains stubbornly high" (no mention of renters under same), BoE tweets taking advice from Recep Erdogan on high inflation, Shri Modi promises to sing at King's coronation after Kerry Katona drops out to open new post office

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4
HOLA445
5
HOLA446
6
HOLA447
7
HOLA448

From the horses mouth!

“The average house price in February was £285,476, 2.1% up on this time last year, and has been stable over the last three months.

“When comparing to January, there was a 1.1% increase in house prices through the month of February, although overall prices are flat compared to three months ago. Recent reductions in mortgage rates, improving consumer confidence, and a continuing resilience in the labour market are arguably helping to stabilise prices following the falls seen in November and December. Still, with the cost of a home down on a quarterly basis, the underlying activity continues to indicate a general downward trend.

“In cash terms, house prices are down around £8,500 (-2.9%) on the August 2022 peak but remain almost £9,000 above the average prices seen at the start of 2022 and are still above pre-pandemic levels, meaning most sellers will retain price gains made during the pandemic. With average house prices remaining high housing affordability will continue to feel challenging for many buyers.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8
HOLA449
Quote

 

Kim Kinnaird, Director, Halifax Mortgages, said:
“The average house price in February was £285,476, 2.1% up on this time last year, and has been stable over the last three months.

“When comparing to January, there was a 1.1% increase in house prices through the month of February, although overall prices are flat compared to three months ago. Recent reductions in mortgage rates, improving consumer confidence, and a continuing resilience in the labour market are arguably helping to stabilise prices following the falls seen in November and December. Still, with the cost of a home down on a quarterly basis, the underlying activity continues to indicate a general downward trend.

“In cash terms, house prices are down around £8,500 (-2.9%) on the August 2022 peak but remain almost £9,000 above the average prices seen at the start of 2022 and are still above pre-pandemic levels, meaning most sellers will retain price gains made during the pandemic. With average house prices remaining high housing affordability will continue to feel challenging for many buyers.”

 

Emphasis my own.

Anyone reading these figures as a sign of optimism for house price growth, rather than as a warning to exit the market before values start falling more dramatically, is reading what they want to see in the figures and not paying attention to what the signs are actually showing.

That this month's figures seem to be greeted with surprise and scepticism by those in the know says a lot about where things are heading.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9
HOLA4410
57 minutes ago, Timm said:

I have to admit, I’m surprised by this.

I'm not. this forum got unduly negative on house price outlook. There were some truly wacky figures banded about in this thread showing optimism rather than realism. Round me houses are selling we aren't seeing a crash. Interest rates are still low and the government is paying for people's energy so they can spend that money on servicing the mortgage.

I've seen too many false dawn's on here over the last 12 years from the count being so insistent that Mark Carney forward guidance would cause the crash. To spy guys equally iffy predictions about MMR and Basel 3 causing a crash, to poor old bland unsights assertion that BTL would be bankrupt due to section whatever in his wide of the mark famous shloberant. We need more stars to align for the crash to really start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10
HOLA4411
11
HOLA4412
12
HOLA4413
13
HOLA4414
4 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

It's a controlled crash, isn't it? 

Pumping enough zeroes out to keep nominal prices steady.

While inflation eats into real values at 10% a year. 

I can agree with that yes. Not a nominal crash though. And that's what a negative number is on this thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14
HOLA4415
15
HOLA4416
8 hours ago, 24gray24 said:

It's a controlled crash, isn't it? 

Pumping enough zeroes out to keep nominal prices steady.

While inflation eats into real values at 10% a year. 

Could well be just that, if so the BoE are playing a very dangerous game with inflation.  One which could backfire badly, leading to social unrest and the emergence of things I'd rather stayed in their box. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16
HOLA4417
17
HOLA4418
10 hours ago, Pebbles said:

I'm not. this forum got unduly negative on house price outlook. There were some truly wacky figures banded about in this thread showing optimism rather than realism. Round me houses are selling we aren't seeing a crash. Interest rates are still low and the government is paying for people's energy so they can spend that money on servicing the mortgage.

I've seen too many false dawn's on here over the last 12 years from the count being so insistent that Mark Carney forward guidance would cause the crash. To spy guys equally iffy predictions about MMR and Basel 3 causing a crash, to poor old bland unsights assertion that BTL would be bankrupt due to section whatever in his wide of the mark famous shloberant. We need more stars to align for the crash to really start.

You forgot FInancial Planners now infamous 'I told you so thread' from early 2020. Like you say too much copium doing the rounds and so many false dawns. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18
HOLA4419

The BoE models show inflation falling below 2% target in 2024 if rates stay as they are. I've been convinced we've seen inflation peak for a few months now, indeed it's falling albeit slowly but I think we'll see 5% by end of year. I also think base rates will be lower at the end of the year than they are right now. 

The question those hoping to buy need to answer for themselves is at what point will they commit? It's never easy, you're competing with everyone else for the same thing. Think campervans during lockdown or expensive watches...... if you wanted one you'd also have to take that step.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19
HOLA4420

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information