Bond yields going up again could interest rates go higher then 4.5% in UK?

[henry the king]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

Up again.

Mortgage rates will go up.

The VI MSM seem to have convinced a lot of people that everything will be going "back to normal" by the end of the year.

 

5 year swap up from 3.2% to 4% over the last month or so.

Massive increase.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, henry the king said:

5 year swap up from 3.2% to 4% over the last month or so.

Massive increase.

Food price inflation 17%

Rates are not going down

[fellow]

1 hour ago, henry the king said:

5 year swap up from 3.2% to 4% over the last month or so.

Massive increase.

10 year swap also now above 4%. Mortgage rates are not coming down any time soon. We have @mynamehereto thank for showing us the link between swap rates and mortgage rates, although he has gone a bit quite about this recently.

 

[mynamehere]

9 minutes ago, fellow said:

10 year swap also now above 4%. Mortgage rates are not coming down any time soon. We have @mynamehereto thank for showing us the link between swap rates and mortgage rates, although he has gone a bit quite about this recently.

 

I've posted about it at least once a day. 

I think buyers have already adjusted to the reality that mortgage rates are not coming down much if at all. Buyers above all want stability. They don't want to buy in a period of volatility where rates are likely to move 2% in either direction.

Compared to 2022 whih had a long steady climb up followed by extreme volatility, 2023 is looking relatively stable. Which is clearly feeding through to buyer confidence. 

In terms of mortgages reacting to recent rises,  you look at the major lenders such as halifax and nationwise, they were very slow to react to the sub 4% dip. If you look more closely at the sub 4% deals, they were not mainstream deals that would get any kind of volume. The high volume products were much more stiff.

So I don't think the average 5 yr fix is going to move anything like as much the swap rate has moved over last couple of weeks. Maybe up 0.2%? 

Edited February 28, 2023 by mynamehere

[henry the king]

8 minutes ago, fellow said:

10 year swap also now above 4%. Mortgage rates are not coming down any time soon. We have @mynamehereto thank for showing us the link between swap rates and mortgage rates, although he has gone a bit quite about this recently.

 

He clarified that it no longer matters. Only the last month Halifax index matter. All other data does not matter.

[mynamehere]

9 minutes ago, henry the king said:

He clarified that it no longer matters. Only the last month Halifax index matter. All other data does not matter.

You ooze confidence. It's dribbling out of you

[scottbeard]

33 minutes ago, henry the king said:

He clarified that it no longer matters. Only the last month Halifax index matter. All other data does not matter.

Exactly.  We must disregard all other data, as well as global trends and common sense.

We have a single number from a single month's mortgage advances from a single provider in a single country, and the whole world is saved.

Worst Troll Ever.

[mynamehere]

21 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Exactly.  We must disregard all other data, as well as global trends and common sense.

We have a single number from a single month's mortgage advances from a single provider in a single country, and the whole world is saved.

Worst Troll Ever.

If you would like any help choosing a mortgage, you know where to find me. I give good price.

 

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by mynamehere

[NoHPCinTheUK]

11 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Exactly.  We must disregard all other data, as well as global trends and common sense.

We have a single number from a single month's mortgage advances from a single provider in a single country, and the whole world is saved.

Worst Troll Ever.

Those are the narratives EAs and brokers are using on the streets right now.

[henry the king]

35 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Exactly.  We must disregard all other data, as well as global trends and common sense.

We have a single number from a single month's mortgage advances from a single provider in a single country, and the whole world is saved.

Worst Troll Ever.

The trolls love to jump on anything they can. It is a classic tactic.

They latched onto RightMove asking price data too even when HF and NW were both down over 1% MoM. Then they latched onto swap rates. Now Zoopla's latest index is a horror show for them and swap rates have surged to decade highs except for the mini budget turmoil and they are now on Halifax's latest data point. 

If Halifax is negative this month and Nationwide is -0.1% or something they will be on Nationwide.

My prediction: He will decide not seasonally adjusted data is what matters as we are in a period now where seasonally house prices should rise. 

Edited February 28, 2023 by henry the king

[TheCountOfNowhere]

41 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Exactly.  We must disregard all other data, as well as global trends and common sense.

We have a single number from a single month's mortgage advances from a single provider in a single country, and the whole world is saved.

Worst Troll Ever.

To be fair to him, rightmove said prices went up £14.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

7 minutes ago, henry the king said:

The trolls love to jump on anything they can. It is a classic tactic.

They latched onto RightMove asking price data too even when HF and NW were both down over 1% MoM. Then they latched onto swap rates. Now Zoopla's latest index is a horror show for them and swap rates have surged to decade highs except for the mini budget turmoil and they are now on Halifax's latest data point. 

If Halifax is negative this month and Nationwide is -0.1% or something they will be on Nationwide.

My prediction: He will decide not seasonally adjusted data is what matters as we are in a period now where seasonally house prices should rise. 

Looking at the ULPL data, rightmove will show a nice heart warming bounce this month.

After that, who knows.

[mynamehere]

10 minutes ago, henry the king said:

The trolls love to jump on anything they can. It is a classic tactic.

They latched onto RightMove asking price data too even when HF and NW were both down over 1% MoM. Then they latched onto swap rates. Now Zoopla's latest index is a horror show for them and swap rates have surged to decade highs except for the mini budget turmoil and they are now on Halifax's latest data point. 

If Halifax is negative this month and Nationwide is -0.1% or something they will be on Nationwide.

My prediction: He will decide not seasonally adjusted data is what matters as we are in a period now where seasonally house prices should rise. 

A horror show indeed .

 

[henry the king]

9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

To be fair to him, rightmove said prices went up £14.

True, a massive increase in a month prices usually go up £5k

[Roman Roady]

Not getting any better ATM.

[TheResponsibleHouseBuyer]

On 2/28/2023 at 12:29 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Food price inflation 17%

Rates are not going down

Yes, even this guy sees food price more than the inflation rate the govt is saying.

[Roman Roady]

now @3.90

[henry the king]

1 hour ago, Roman Roady said:

now @3.90

Highest since October - in the aftermath of the mini budget turmoil.

Take that anomaly out of the data and yields are up from 3.1% to 3.9% in the last 6 months (since September before the mini budget).

HUGE move.

[Timm]

It also looks as if the curve is starting to de-invert.

Not sure what this means - rates near their top and no recession / pivot expected?

Or something else?

[AppleBob]

5 hours ago, TheResponsibleHouseBuyer said:

Yes, even this guy sees food price more than the inflation rate the govt is saying.

28th March 2022;  Asda is launching a new value range focusing on the cost-of-living crisis as part of its push to overtake Sainsbury’s as the UK’s second largest supermarket, as it reveals profits have soared by 42% over the past year.

28th April 2022: Bosses (at Sainsburys) revealed pre-tax profits for the 12 months to March 5 hit £854 million, compared with a £164 million pre-tax loss a year earlier. This was also a three-fold increase on pre-pandemic profits of £278 million.

13th April 2022; Tesco profits tripled, the UK's largest supermarket chain reported pre tax profits of £2.03 billion, up from £636million, the previous year

 

 

[fellow]

Watch out risk assets, the rout in bonds is coming your way

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/watch-out-risk-assets-rout-bonds-is-coming-your-way-2023-03-01/

 

Inflation data pushed the (US) 10-year Treasury yield above 4%

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-much-higher-whats-next-as-10-year-treasury-yield-moves-solidly-above-4-57a9f6c

[scottbeard]

The last time I remember market conditions like this - high bond yields AND high equity markets - was July 2007, just before the credit crunch.

However, before panicking, UK equity market valuations look OK to me relative to dividends right now.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

[TheResponsibleHouseBuyer]

On 3/2/2023 at 6:31 PM, AppleBob said:

28th March 2022;  Asda is launching a new value range focusing on the cost-of-living crisis as part of its push to overtake Sainsbury’s as the UK’s second largest supermarket, as it reveals profits have soared by 42% over the past year.

28th April 2022: Bosses (at Sainsburys) revealed pre-tax profits for the 12 months to March 5 hit £854 million, compared with a £164 million pre-tax loss a year earlier. This was also a three-fold increase on pre-pandemic profits of £278 million.

13th April 2022; Tesco profits tripled, the UK's largest supermarket chain reported pre tax profits of £2.03 billion, up from £636million, the previous year

 

 

I can bet my two pence (probably more if i had some ££ in my bank account) that the farmers get none of a share of it...... Yet we consumers keep paying more for these products.

[Tapori]

Thank you for the discussion and responses.