How high will interest rates go before they peak under an Empress Truss government?

[coypondboy]

Interesting article in Mail showing an expected 0.5% rise again in september which with an expected doubling of your gas/electric bills spells trouble for the housing market in my opinion.  I think the falls will start in the London market and ripple out as they always do in previous house price booms and crashes what happens in London affects the rest of the country.  The only difference now is the ability of Londoner's to live in other parts of the country by wfh whilst enjoying their high salaries but think this will change as Rees-Mogg not happy with all that tax payer's money being used to pay landlords for empty properties in central London.  I imagine the Candy brothers looking for their next Chelsea barracks development. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-11113723/Bank-England-set-deliver-0-5-rate-hike-month.html

[JimTheHouseCat]

My concern is a change of remit for BoE to target nGDP.

https://www.cato.org/commentary/anti-truss-commentators-should-try-understand-nominal-gdp-targeting

 

It's basically an excuse for BoE to not raise IRs in times of supply crisis as we are experiencing currently.

Its confusing and anything that makes the BoE remit less transparent is a bad thing in my view.

[clarkey]

Great I look forward to another 0.5 % on my savings , oh wait no they are still 0.1%

[hurlerontheditch]

31 minutes ago, clarkey said:

Great I look forward to another 0.5 % on my savings , oh wait no they are still 0.1%

open a zopa account then

[Nomadd]

39 minutes ago, clarkey said:

Great I look forward to another 0.5 % on my savings , oh wait no they are still 0.1%

1 Year Bonds pay nearly 3% atm.

[Flat Bear]

How high will interest rates go before they peak under an Empress Truss government?

I note you did not have one reply. She will have approx 2 years.

I am plumping for BOE base rate of 12%. I expect them to go higher after the next GE.

[MARTINX9]

On 16/08/2022 at 18:56, clarkey said:

Great I look forward to another 0.5 % on my savings , oh wait no they are still 0.1%

You can easily get well over 2 per cent instant access now. Even instant cash ISAs are paying 1.6 per cent. Not going to beat inflation but at least it closes the gap a little. 

Why are you still in a 0.1 per cent account?!

We can only hope base rates hit 10 per cent - just like when her namesake Mad Lizzie was doing the aerobics slot on Tv am in the 1980s.  Prices were a lot cheaper then too!!

Edited September 2, 2022 by MARTINX9

[Social Justice League]

IR's at 20% is coming imo.

Let's see the debtor fookwits go bust and talk sh1te.

[Chunketh]

2 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

IR's at 20% is coming imo.

Let's see the debtor fookwits go bust and talk sh1te.

Let’s see the entire country go bust at those rates.

nobody would get out unscathed 

[Social Justice League]

3 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

Let’s see the entire country go bust at those rates.

nobody would get out unscathed 

Those without debt might.

[Chunketh]

1 minute ago, Social Justice League said:

Those without debt might.

ROFL 

ok dream on.

[Social Justice League]

Just now, Chunketh said:

ROFL 

ok dream on.

IR's at 20% might actually get inflation under control.  Those in debt can go to hell but so what.

[Pmax2020]

1 hour ago, Flat Bear said:

How high will interest rates go before they peak under an Empress Truss government?

I note you did not have one reply. She will have approx 2 years.

I am plumping for BOE base rate of 12%. I expect them to go higher after the next GE.

We’re that to happen, then the government would engineer a system whereby mortgage rates are discounted. 
 

[Flat Bear]

4 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

We’re that to happen, then the government would engineer a system whereby mortgage rates are discounted. 
 

Mortgage rates wouldnt be as high as you think. Circa 14% possibly slightly lower for high Value to loan.

It will be 2025 onwards that will start to get very high. But by this time house prices would have come down and mortgages will be a lot less so no real problems.

[Mandalorian]

How high will interest rates go before they peak under an Empress Truss government?

Not high enough.  Annoyingly.

[Flat Bear]

2 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Mortgage rates wouldnt be as high as you think. Circa 14% possibly slightly lower for high Value to loan.

It will be 2025 onwards that will start to get very high. But by this time house prices would have come down and mortgages will be a lot less so no real problems.

There will be record banruptcies over the next 5 years so this will help the problem considerably.

The government arn't going to come to the rescue I'm afraid.

[Pmax2020]

14 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

Mortgage rates wouldnt be as high as you think. Circa 14% possibly slightly lower for high Value to loan.

It will be 2025 onwards that will start to get very high. But by this time house prices would have come down and mortgages will be a lot less so no real problems.

14% would bankrupt MILLIONS of families. It won’t happen. 

I don’t even need to consult a mortgage calculator to know that peoples £900 mortgages would become £3000. 

The government won’t let this happen. 

[Pmax2020]

Yup - over 25 years, mortgages in the 60% LTV bracket that wouldve had a nice 2% fix would see their monthly fee treble at 14%.

That won’t happen. 

[Flat Bear]

3 minutes ago, Pmax2020 said:

Yup - over 25 years, mortgages in the 60% LTV bracket that wouldve had a nice 2% fix would see their monthly fee treble at 14%.

That won’t happen. 

Yes it will.

[Chunketh]

45 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

IR's at 20% might actually get inflation under control.  Those in debt can go to hell but so what.

Only it won’t will it. This is mostly geopolitical.

even then, people will cut all other spending to the bone to pay their mortgages.

so your debt free, 25 and working in retail, food, hospitality, travel or entertainment (to name a few) and suddenly you have no job. I’m sure you are really going to feel great about high interest rates.

then there is the pressure the government would be under to do something, anything, to assist…so they cut taxes and public services.

that’s the health service, fire service, police all happy with no pay rises and cuts to numbers.

then the government target pensions and pensioners in an effort to stem the problem, that’s them happy as they wallow in poverty unable to get a hospital appointment.

if you think this will just affect the group of people you hate (or envy) you need to give your head a wobble. It will get ugly real fast for everyone.

[Flat Bear]

2 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

Only it won’t will it. This is mostly geopolitical.

even then, people will cut all other spending to the bone to pay their mortgages.

so your debt free, 25 and working in retail, food, hospitality, travel or entertainment (to name a few) and suddenly you have no job. I’m sure you are really going to feel great about high interest rates.

then there is the pressure the government would be under to do something, anything, to assist…so they cut taxes and public services.

that’s the health service, fire service, police all happy with no pay rises and cuts to numbers.

then the government target pensions and pensioners in an effort to stem the problem, that’s them happy as they wallow in poverty unable to get a hospital appointment.

if you think this will just affect the group of people you hate (or envy) you need to give your head a wobble. It will get ugly real fast for everyone.

You seem to be getting the picture.

I think it will be a lot worse than you describe but your definately getting the picture.

Edited September 2, 2022 by Flat Bear

[Social Justice League]

31 minutes ago, Chunketh said:

Only it won’t will it. This is mostly geopolitical.

even then, people will cut all other spending to the bone to pay their mortgages.

so your debt free, 25 and working in retail, food, hospitality, travel or entertainment (to name a few) and suddenly you have no job. I’m sure you are really going to feel great about high interest rates.

then there is the pressure the government would be under to do something, anything, to assist…so they cut taxes and public services.

that’s the health service, fire service, police all happy with no pay rises and cuts to numbers.

then the government target pensions and pensioners in an effort to stem the problem, that’s them happy as they wallow in poverty unable to get a hospital appointment.

if you think this will just affect the group of people you hate (or envy) you need to give your head a wobble. It will get ugly real fast for everyone.

Listen I know only too well how bad things are going to get, but I don't envy people who are drowning in debt.

Hyperinflation will bust everyone.  IR's at 20% will bust debtors.

Bailey will bust the pound if he doesn't act but I'll keep on picking up dividends from oil and gas shares in the mean time.

[clarkey]

Interest rates won’t go up much further the establishment are all piled into propertee. I think it’s slowly dawning that inflation is coming from energy prices and increasing peoples mortgages is simply increasing the pain for not much gain.  

[Flat Bear]

1 minute ago, clarkey said:

Interest rates won’t go up much further the establishment are all piled into propertee. I think it’s slowly dawning that inflation is coming from energy prices and increasing peoples mortgages is simply increasing the pain for not much gain.  

LOL

In pretend land where everything is easy you could be right. Why not use the magic money tree? Forgot the magic money tree. All sorted.

Back in the real world it is not very pretty. Our currency is losing value and many people will lose everything. Becoming bankrupt will be the vouge.

Remeber in the USA if you can not pay your mortgage you just give the keys back and walk away. You can't do that in the UK. You lose your house and are still liable for any negative equity.

We could well see bankruptcies in the millions, this is very possible. Strangely enough this will be very good for the economy as there will be more people entering the labour market with lower expectations.

Those chickens are coming home to roost in a big way.

[MarkG]

3 hours ago, Pmax2020 said:

14% would bankrupt MILLIONS of families. It won’t happen. 

Not raising rates would also bankrupt them. And destroy the pound.

From a political standpoint, raising rates is less likely to end up with politicians swinging from lamp-posts than raising them.