Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[yelims]

 

 

 

[Sackboii]

2 hours ago, bumble bee said:

"The U.S. can never defeat the heroic Russian army and people with any latest weaponry or military support,"

Nothing to worry about then, eh ?

[pig]

1 hour ago, Staffsknot said:

The Ukrainian pullbacks at a couple of villages has been to prevent Russia just pummelling that area with ordnance before aid arrives ( current Russian strategy). By giving up some territory and moving back to another fixed and prepared defence they preserve the forces while Russia has to spend time consolidating that position.

Russia has failed to make the most of its firepower and numerical advantages in these areas and that's why the Russians have failed toachieve any significant breakthrough anywhere.

Unless they can break a Ukrainian line and breakout yhen they are stuck in a slow grind and the new aid packages will arrive before Russia can achieve anything and begin to impact Summer operations.

Ukraine is having a very tough fight but this is not the victory push Russian trolls keep trying to make out it to be. Its because they are worried they are frantically pushing the wibble.

With the artillery and airpower advantages as well as numerical advantage that the pro-Russia trolls push at every opportunity they have achieved virtually bugger all. That is with aid issues as well to Ukr and the Gaza conflict distracting attention.

That is the interesting part for me that Russia at the point it should have maximum leverage is still grinding forward at a snail pace and losing large numbers of troops and high value assets.

Its also why they are back to attacking cities ad civilian infrastructure

Still high possibility for upcoming disappointing setbacks for the Ukrainians until supplies have stabilised the situation/

That said, as you say Ukrainians were cited as being outgunned up to 10-1, as the Russians crawled forward incurring 1000 casualties a day. The US elections are often cited is the key time marker everybody seems focussed on but I wonder if the Kremlin is in a race against the time for when the Russian public start seeing the war as a hopeless meat grinder.

[Si1]

My concern is that the US is clearly concerned about both the European and Pacific threats to its allied free trading states. So those threats are Russia and China. And right now Europe is depending on US weapons to save them from Russia.

At the same time Germany and France are deepening their trading ties with China, Americas other threat? Isn't this rather a snub to the US and its weapons aid to Ukraine? Are Germany and France smoking something? Or is their concern for Ukraine a little limited? 

Given this you could hardly blame the yanks for being a bit disillusioned....

@Staffsknot ?

[zugzwang]

14 minutes ago, Si1 said:

My concern is that the US is clearly concerned about both the European and Pacific threats to its allied free trading states. So those threats are Russia and China. And right now Europe is depending on US weapons to save them from Russia.

At the same time Germany and France are deepening their trading ties with China, Americas other threat? Isn't this rather a snub to the US and its weapons aid to Ukraine? Are Germany and France smoking something? Or is their concern for Ukraine a little limited? 

Given this you could hardly blame the yanks for being a bit disillusioned....

@Staffsknot ?

F**k the bloody yanks! Free trading? Not a day goes by without some deluded functionary in the US govt complaining about Chinese competition in one industry or another. The grifting bastards have been trying to establish an illegal cartel to rig the price of high end semiconductors since 2018.

[miguel]

50 minutes ago, pig said:

Still high possibility for upcoming disappointing setbacks for the Ukrainians until supplies have stabilised the situation/

That said, as you say Ukrainians were cited as being outgunned up to 10-1, as the Russians crawled forward incurring 1000 casualties a day. The US elections are often cited is the key time marker everybody seems focussed on but I wonder if the Kremlin is in a race against the time for when the Russian public start seeing the war as a hopeless meat grinder.

 

They've lost 0.04% of territory in the last 4 months, of course that's when they were under a lot of pressure and had to preserve weapon stocks. In contrast the Ukrainian push in 2022 clawed back 0.08% of territory. 

In other words no one is going anywhere fast. 

[pig]

46 minutes ago, Si1 said:

My concern is that the US is clearly concerned about both the European and Pacific threats to its allied free trading states. So those threats are Russia and China. And right now Europe is depending on US weapons to save them from Russia.

At the same time Germany and France are deepening their trading ties with China, Americas other threat? Isn't this rather a snub to the US and its weapons aid to Ukraine? Are Germany and France smoking something? Or is their concern for Ukraine a little limited? 

Given this you could hardly blame the yanks for being a bit disillusioned....

@Staffsknot ?

China is helping the slaughter in Ukraine - they are more of a threat to us than a threat to the US atm.

[satsuma]

2 hours ago, yelims said:

 

 

 

This does not seem to be getting much coverage in the mainstream news.  However, it true it does not surprise me.  Manchuria was lost by China, to invasion, different to Taiwan which decided to go for independence.  Russia has pilfered land from Japan also.  I said from the start, there are counties that will be thinking “Russia has out lands, we will be needing that back”.  Realistically, Japan, Taiwan and China would be within their rights to push for a solution that involves Taiwan being left alone, Japan and China liberating former territories.  Of course, Turkey would like to remove Russian interference from places like Georgia and Eastern Europeans would like to see places like Moldova and Hungary free from Russian operations.  

[bumble bee]

1 hour ago, miguel said:

 

They've lost 0.04% of territory in the last 4 months, of course that's when they were under a lot of pressure and had to preserve weapon stocks. In contrast the Ukrainian push in 2022 clawed back 0.08% of territory. 

In other words no one is going anywhere fast. 

Your numbers dosn't look punctilious.

Regardless, Russia captured Bakhmut in 9 months, Avdiivka in 4 months, ocheretyne in 2 months ...

What next?

[Si1]

1 hour ago, satsuma said:

This does not seem to be getting much coverage in the mainstream news.  However, it true it does not surprise me.  Manchuria was lost by China, to invasion, different to Taiwan which decided to go for independence.

Taiwan never "went for independence". They just never had the communist revolution there so kept the old Chinese pre-communist govt, as I understand it.

1 hour ago, satsuma said:

Russia has pilfered land from Japan also.  I said from the start, there are counties that will be thinking “Russia has out lands, we will be needing that back”.  Realistically, Japan, Taiwan and China would be within their rights to push for a solution that involves Taiwan being left alone, Japan and China liberating former territories.  Of course, Turkey would like to remove Russian interference from places like Georgia and Eastern Europeans would like to see places like Moldova and Hungary free from Russian operations.  

 

[yelims]

1 hour ago, bumble bee said:

Your numbers dosn't look punctilious.

Regardless, Russia captured Bakhmut in 9 months, Avdiivka in 4 months, ocheretyne in 2 months ...

What next?

Kiev in Three Hundred Years at this rate in the Three Day war

Ukraine is big, Russian male fertiliser pile is not endless 

Edited April 29 by yelims

[satsuma]

37 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Taiwan never "went for independence". They just never had the communist revolution there so kept the old Chinese pre-communist govt, as I understand it.

 

The legitimate Chinese government fled to Taiwan and became independent.  

[satsuma]

38 minutes ago, yelims said:

Kiev in Three Hundred Years at this rate in the Three Day war

Ukraine is big, Russian male fertiliser pile is not endless 

I do wonder what is happening to all the dead Russian bodies, must smell awful and be a health hazard. Rats the size of cats comes to mind.  

[pig]

This sounds a bit like China NK and Russia all losing the plot:

 

Quote

 

"The US has secretly supplied long-range missiles to Ukraine, sparking off uneasiness and concern of the international community," North Korea's defence ministry said.

 "The US can never defeat the heroic Russian army and people with any latest weaponry or military support," it added, according to state news agency KCNA.

Professor Michael Clarke, Sky News's military analyst, has said North Korea is supplying weapons to Russia - facilitated by China.

 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-whats-happening-in-ukraine-war-12541713?postid=7601047#liveblog-body

[bumble bee]

Seven major European banks pay over €800m in taxes to Russia in 2023

The largest Western banks, Raiffeisen Bank International, UniCredit, ING, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo and OTP, still operating in Russia paid more than €800 million in taxes last year. They collectively earned more than €3 billion, three times more than in 2021.

The United States is trying to pressure Raiffeisen Bank International to leave the Russian market. Washington is also imposing sanctions on foreign banks that continue to work with Russians, and this is why Chinese banks are abandoning Russia. 

https://en.lb.ua/news/2024/04/29/28774_seven_major_european_banks_pay_over.html

[yelims]

Look at this, pure genius this Russian invention 

[bumble bee]

38 minutes ago, yelims said:

Look at this, pure genius this Russian invention 

"You see?" "I told you so." "Astounding!" said the Gruffalo.

[Staffsknot]

8 hours ago, bumble bee said:

Wibble ...

same excuse as soldiers withdrawing from Avdiivka will be moved to more favourable lines ...

 

Ukraine has started withdrawing troops from Avdiivka in the country's east where outnumbered defenders have battled a Russian assault for four months.

Ukrainian commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi said he had made the decision to avoid encirclement and "preserve the lives and health of servicemen."

The commander-in-chief said troops were moving to "more favourable lines."

"We are taking measures to stabilise the situation and maintain our positions." 

...

You don't understand it because Ukraine puts soldiers lives above gaining 50m of grass... its probably a Russian thing

[Staffsknot]

7 hours ago, pig said:

Still high possibility for upcoming disappointing setbacks for the Ukrainians until supplies have stabilised the situation/

That said, as you say Ukrainians were cited as being outgunned up to 10-1, as the Russians crawled forward incurring 1000 casualties a day. The US elections are often cited is the key time marker everybody seems focussed on but I wonder if the Kremlin is in a race against the time for when the Russian public start seeing the war as a hopeless meat grinder.

There's always room for shocks in war but Russia has signularly failed to exploit its perceived advantageous period.

[Staffsknot]

7 hours ago, Si1 said:

My concern is that the US is clearly concerned about both the European and Pacific threats to its allied free trading states. So those threats are Russia and China. And right now Europe is depending on US weapons to save them from Russia.

At the same time Germany and France are deepening their trading ties with China, Americas other threat? Isn't this rather a snub to the US and its weapons aid to Ukraine? Are Germany and France smoking something? Or is their concern for Ukraine a little limited? 

Given this you could hardly blame the yanks for being a bit disillusioned....

@Staffsknot ?

The Europeans and NATO highlighted that they shouldn't redo the Russian supply situation with China. This is why Belt & Road has floundered with Italy

The Chinese are watching the lessons of Ukr and despite their bluster are now more worried about doing anything against Taiwan than pre-2022.

Russiais in Africa partly to try and gain resource leverageover China in case it gets junior role. Russian politicos hope US will face off China and theycan sweep in.

Ironically China wants Russia vs US

Edited April 29 by Staffsknot
Rus politics in Africa

[Staffsknot]

7 hours ago, zugzwang said:

F**k the bloody yanks! Free trading? Not a day goes by without some deluded functionary in the US govt complaining about Chinese competition in one industry or another. The grifting bastards have been trying to establish an illegal cartel to rig the price of high end semiconductors since 2018.

Wibble

[Staffsknot]

2 hours ago, pig said:

This sounds a bit like China NK and Russia all losing the plot:

 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-whats-happening-in-ukraine-war-12541713?postid=7601047#liveblog-body

China is also helping Russia and Iran improve Shahid-136 on the quiet

[Flat Bear]

14 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

You don't understand it because Ukraine puts soldiers lives above gaining 50m of grass... its probably a Russian thing

Here we have it and there is real truth in this.

BUT, taking morals aside which is the best option for actually winning.

I would suggest the Russian option is best to win a particular battle but the Ukrainian option is much better to winning a war.

He who fights and runs away lives to fight another day. Those that don't simply die.

5 hours ago, bumble bee said:

Your numbers dosn't look punctilious.

Regardless, Russia captured Bakhmut in 9 months, Avdiivka in 4 months, ocheretyne in 2 months ...

What next?

Where do we start here?

How long did it take Russia to take Kyiv in its estimated 3 day special operation?

How long did it take Ukraine to win back much swathes of the Russian gains last year?

Do you know the answers?

A new one for you, how long will it take Russia to take Chasiv Yar and more importantly at what cost?

See how accurate you can be.

[Flat Bear]

The Russo Ukrainian war is now at a crazy stage. It is very difficult to gauge exactly what is going on.

The Russians are gaining ground, albeit very small areas and are losing men and equipment at an alarming rate this we know but why is Russia doing this? It does not make real sense to a sane person.

My own conclusion.

Russia believes that the west (US) has got to a stage where it is fed up with this conflict and aid will dry up for a period in the run up to the elections. Putin has decided to throw everything at the front line in the hope of breaking down the Ukrainian lines and giving him political help for his May 9th speeches and to take as much of Ukraine as he can in the totally deluded hope that there could be some sort of peace talks and these gains will somehow give him more bargaining power. Deluded I know but I think he does think like this. Even the relatively small gains he has made has been talked up and he has got very excited about this, it is in his dreams.

Today we see record  Russian losses (1400 in a single day) and the targeted Russian artillery at near record losses. Russia can not continue to take these losses going forward but Putin is in a state of total panic as he knows if he can not take ground now he has less and less chance as Ukraine gets stronger, gets more aid and his own military capacity diminishes. 

It has seemed to date that all orders have been taken from Putin and his immediate subordinates so we could see in the shorter term this period of Russian onslaught carry on and possibly morph into a summer offensive. It could take weeks and weeks of increased loss rates until Putin is forced to change tact.

Increases in losses of mainly men but also equipment will be inevitable. We see 1400 today but losses in the tens of thousands per day are on the cards. Putin will go down in the history books but not in the way he originally thought.

 

[mynamehere]

8 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

The Russo Ukrainian war is now at a crazy stage. It is very difficult to gauge exactly what is going on.

The Russians are gaining ground, albeit very small areas and are losing men and equipment at an alarming rate this we know but why is Russia doing this? It does not make real sense to a sane person.

My own conclusion.

Russia believes that the west (US) has got to a stage where it is fed up with this conflict and aid will dry up for a period in the run up to the elections. Putin has decided to throw everything at the front line in the hope of breaking down the Ukrainian lines and giving him political help for his May 9th speeches and to take as much of Ukraine as he can in the totally deluded hope that there could be some sort of peace talks and these gains will somehow give him more bargaining power. Deluded I know but I think he does think like this. Even the relatively small gains he has made has been talked up and he has got very excited about this, it is in his dreams.

Today we see record  Russian losses (1400 in a single day) and the targeted Russian artillery at near record losses. Russia can not continue to take these losses going forward but Putin is in a state of total panic as he knows if he can not take ground now he has less and less chance as Ukraine gets stronger, gets more aid and his own military capacity diminishes. 

It has seemed to date that all orders have been taken from Putin and his immediate subordinates so we could see in the shorter term this period of Russian onslaught carry on and possibly morph into a summer offensive. It could take weeks and weeks of increased loss rates until Putin is forced to change tact.

Increases in losses of mainly men but also equipment will be inevitable. We see 1400 today but losses in the tens of thousands per day are on the cards. Putin will go down in the history books but not in the way he originally thought.

 

 Putin doesn't really need peace talks, he is exporting grain , rebuilding Mariupol, selling oil and gas (in some cases in agreement with Ukraine through their pipelines)

At some point, maybe not this year but soon enough, Russia will rebuild bakmut and it will be very strategically important and easily worth the thousand convict lives to take it.

Artillery is ramping up quicker than Europe. 1400 deaths isn't really significant in the grand scheme of things.  

 

At some