Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[yelims]

1 minute ago, Grayphil said:

No that's nothing near what I said or implied, no one apart from Russia wants Ukraine reduced to rubble.

Second part of your post is just daft lies, Russia has illegally invaded, you support this cos of something strange to do woth wanting to kill people in Taiwan to prove a point 

It’s worse than that he repeatedly calls us “imperialists” while bending over backwards to regurgitate Russian propaganda about their imperial war of colonial conquest 

a ******ing hypocrite 

[Staffsknot]

Basically the thread Russia loons have gone off for the same reason Medvedev has gone psycho George Osbourne lookalike

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68874019

That thing they spent all their efforts saying would never happen and Ukraine was therefore abandoned went and happened.

[70PC]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

You want the Ukraine reduced to a rubble field so your son can inherit a flat in Yalta? The absolute inhumanity of it.

No-one on the NATO side cares very much for international law, least of all the Americans and the British.

Ukraine are not turning their country into rubble. Russia is doing it.  

[yelims]

35 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

Basically the thread Russia loons have gone off for the same reason Medvedev has gone psycho George Osbourne lookalike

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68874019

That thing they spent all their efforts saying would never happen and Ukraine was therefore abandoned went and happened.

The mental gymnastics they need to perform to accommodate the contradictions and lies and gaslighting coming out of the Russian firehose of manure is something else to behold

Worthy of an Olympic medal, but then again barbarians with a long history of drug abuse are not welcome at Olympic Games 

[Flat Bear]

18 hours ago, pig said:

Well I think thats a really interesting question thats more complicated than at first appears. You're right I don't have any special military insight (or experience !!) but I know enough to understand how complicated that is to answer.

The short answer is they most certainly can't sustain it indefinitely. There have been various studies that claim Russia has a couple of years tops - but thats pure finance and I doubt that means military gangbusters for 2 years. I think apart from the irony of Ukraine knocking some sense into them and forcing them to adapt and improve,  it also probably means a gradually deteriorating effectiveness and increasing harm and longevity of harm to Russia itself. Who will deteriorate the fastest is the question.

Personally I haven't crunched any numbers but come at it indirectly:

Russia is running short and sanctions are working up to a point. We know this because despite Chinas best efforts  to strike a 'neutral' pose for propaganda purposes  it has effectively been forced to supply Russia to keep the show on the road:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/12/china-supporting-russia-in-massive-military-expansion-us-says

https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-sees-signs-china-supplying-dual-use-components-russia-dombrovskis-says-2024-04-18/

 

Ukraines escalating attacks on logistics  A caveat to Russias 'on paper' numerical advantage are its logistical weaknesses.

https://www.rand.org/topics/military-logistics.html

... which has a kind of multiplier effect on Ukraines ability to degrade Russias ability to wage war. 

 

Potential political Limits on Mobilisation: Moscow seems really nervous...  While again on paper Russia has a numerical advantage, the reality is that their numbers have more of a political limitation on them.

Reports are they've tried to avoid urban centres and try to ensure only  hicks  get called up (ie to limit political kickback to the relatively voiceless). Putins Re-election Elections looked ludicrous and trying to fix the Moscow attacks on the Ukrainians on the surface made the Russians look foolish and petty ...BUT actually it underlines he Kremlin worried about a Russian public that, rather than fighting for their lives as the Ukrainians, are merely fighting to sustain Putins fictional image of themselves and an incredibly remote and unlikely threat from 'the West'...

Add to that recklessness with soldiers lives, poor morale, poor training, political meddling in military matters to try to make timetables politically favourable...

Additionally, its worth remembering Putin did not expect/want this war - he became trapped in it through his own gross miscalculation, hubris and overreach. Which btw has lead to China becoming trapped in a War to destabilise and potentially threaten Europe. Europeans aren't at the point of burning Chinese flags in the streets ! But that does not sound a comfortable situation for a normally pragmatic and business focussed China to be in long term...

 

 

Thank you very much for your reply.

Yes it is very complicated and there is so little information to go on but I think you have come to some realistic conclusions.

This thread in particular has become very toxic as we have those out and out Russian apologists twisting everything no matter how ridiculous alongside some anti western/anti capitalists who just want to see the west fail.

Many like you and me and a number of others with a general view that Russia was wrong in its attack on Ukraine and its general approach to human rights of its own people as well as its disregard for international law and decency look to the war in Ukraine as a fight for a country who want to be free of tyranny and our hearts are naturally with them.

Most of the posts throughout this thread are not at all about actual facts and real information albeit what we don't necessarily want to hear but just about every post is an emotional response to another post ie winding up some body or a sub group of posters which is no good for anyone.

Your reply to me was a more difficult post to make as you actually had to look at the information you had from various sources and come to a logical conclusion. You and I may still subconsciously put a bias on Ukraine but we have had to make a reasoned argument why.

Other questions to ask ourselves could be "What if there is no more aid for Ukraine at all, how would the situation resolve itself"? or another question "What if Ukraine is given a massive aid package from the states, how would this situation resolve itself"? Answers for both questions may not be as easy as first thought.

 

[bumble bee]

The naysayers on here are today going off piste ... What is going on ...?

Russian forces make significant gains in eastern Ukraine

Russian forces have made significant advances in a narrow corridor in eastern Ukraine as an offensive by Moscow to take territory before western military aid arrives appears to be gathering pace.

The Ukrainian army retreated from Avdiivka in February and has been trying to establish a new defensive line in settlements along the Durna River but in recent weeks reinforced Russian units have been pushing forward, using air-launched glide bombs to pulverise Ukrainian bunkers.

Moscow’s ministry of defence claimed Ukrainian troops fled Ocheretyne. Its capture means Russia has managed to bypass the northern flank of Ukraine’s recently constructed forward line, including minefields and trenches.

Russian forces are within about 30km of Pokrovsk, the main garrison city in the area, used to rotate soldiers and equipment, which appears to be the next operational Russian target.

Further north, a large Russian offensive is under way to seize the town of Chasiv Yar.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/23/russian-forces-make-significant-gains-in-eastern-ukraine

[bumble bee]

Shoigu said Russia had "dispelled the myth of the superiority of Western weapons" and its forces had gained the initiative along the 1,000 km (600-mile) battle front.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-intensify-strikes-western-weapons-ukraine-shoigu-says-2024-04-23/

[zugzwang]

 

The Ukrainians are hopelessly outmatched. A few $billion more in bombs and missiles isn't going to change that calculus. The Ukrainian economy is a third smaller today than it was in 2021. Hundreds of thousands lie dead. Millions of young men and women have fled the country.

It's like watching someone slowly committing suicide while egging them on from the sidelines.

[yelims]

25 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

 

The Ukrainians are hopelessly outmatched. A few $billion more in bombs and missiles isn't going to change that calculus. The Ukrainian economy is a third smaller today than it was in 2021. Hundreds of thousands lie dead. Millions of young men and women have fled the country.

It's like watching someone slowly committing suicide while egging them on from the sidelines.

Yet again you are cheering for an empire in its colonial war of conquest

How very Chinese 

Edited April 23 by yelims

[70PC]

1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

The Ukrainians are hopelessly outmatched. A few $billion more in bombs and missiles isn't going to change that calculus. The Ukrainian economy is a third smaller today than it was in 2021. Hundreds of thousands lie dead. Millions of young men and women have fled the country.

It's like watching someone slowly committing suicide while egging them on from the sidelines.

Russia certainly has superior number in troops and hardware and the term outmatched has been used repeatedly by some from the outset. Ukraine being outmatched is not what we are seeing. 

Edited April 23 by 70PC

[pig]

1 hour ago, bumble bee said:

Shoigu said Russia had "dispelled the myth of the superiority of Western weapons" and its forces had gained the initiative along the 1,000 km (600-mile) battle front.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-intensify-strikes-western-weapons-ukraine-shoigu-says-2024-04-23/

LMAO yes when you're outgunned by the Russians 5 to 1 and out-manned 3-1 the Russian weaponry might have a slight advantage

 

[bumble bee]

 

The war in Ukraine could reach a decision point by the NATO summit

Some analysts today are indeed coming to the view that the war in Ukraine is heading for a negotiated settlement. In such a hypothetical settlement, Ukraine would preserve its sovereignty and independence while Russia keeps its territorial gains in the east, plus Crimea. Setting aside the fact that such an outcome would be tantamount to a Russian victory, these predictions could be undone by developments on the ground.

In the coming months, the Biden administration could change course on Ukraine. If the Russians advance in Ukraine, the administration would have two choices: stay the course and increase the risk of Ukrainian losses, or shift from a “for as long as it takes” policy to an approach of “whatever the Ukrainians need to beat the Russians back.” This would potentially increase the risk of escalation with Russia, but it would also deflect the electoral risk of being blamed for the failure of US policy in Ukraine, while giving Kyiv a fighting chance to reach a favorable position from which to negotiate.

The biggest problem remains the Biden administration’s overall approach of providing just enough aid to Kyiv so that Ukraine can hold the line, while draining Russian warfighting capabilities and limiting the risk of nuclear escalation.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-war-in-ukraine-could-reach-a-decision-point-by-the-nato-summit/

 

[bumble bee]

10 minutes ago, 70PC said:

Russia certainly has superior number in troops and hardware and the term outmatched has been used repeatedly by some from the outset. Ukraine being outmatched is not what we are seeing. 

What exactly are you seeing???

[Lucky Larry]

3 hours ago, Grayphil said:

What NATO is doing In Gaza? 

Put the crack pipe down

The US and the UK are actively participating in the genocide in Gaza I didn't say Nato , some Nato members are openly opposing the genocide going on there and have bans on supplying Israel with weapons . Numbnutz

[70PC]

17 minutes ago, bumble bee said:

What exactly are you seeing???

Battle of Thermopylae

[bumble bee]

1 minute ago, 70PC said:

Battle of Thermopylae

???

[Grayphil]

5 hours ago, yelims said:

It’s worse than that he repeatedly calls us “imperialists” while bending over backwards to regurgitate Russian propaganda about their imperial war of colonial conquest 

a ******ing hypocrite 

I agree fully 

This bizarre madness seemingly knows no bounds...

Well I actually think it's more like they have no shame.

Essentially, when I get things wrong in life, and on the Internet, I will try to understand that I was wrong and will address it.

What different here, is that these accounts don't care about their integrity, and will post whatever nonsense, however the second that someone posts something that is even slightly questionable they swarm all over it like excited children who don't fully understand that long term, their ideals are about to be spanked by a very angry daddy

[Staffsknot]

39 minutes ago, bumble bee said:

???

For those with no knowledge of history such as yourself - the analogy is a much smsller but more motivated and professional force exacting a massive toll on a slave army many times its size - the  largest of its time.

The stand by such a force caused the ultimate defeat of the Persian invasion, despite grievous losses by the defenders.

Basically he's saying the Ukrainian forces have outperformed your larger slave army and each time you take a bit of land the cost is one more phyrric victory ( another ancient lesson) after another.

[Grayphil]

3 hours ago, yelims said:

Yet again you are cheering for an empire in its colonial war of conquest

How very Chinese 

Let's be honest he is projecting his personal hope of how he imagines his next fantasy war will go when China invades Taiwan.

He has read all of this thread over the last 2 years, understood that easily more than, and at a minimum half a million people have been slaughtered in this conflict.

It will be more.

But what I really can't understand, is why do the Socialists and the Communists seem to enjoying slaughtering more people than anyone else.

And this isn't a recent thing, it's been going on for decades

 

[Grayphil]

2 hours ago, bumble bee said:

 

The war in Ukraine could reach a decision point by the NATO summit

Some analysts today are indeed coming to the view that the war in Ukraine is heading for a negotiated settlement. In such a hypothetical settlement, Ukraine would preserve its sovereignty and independence while Russia keeps its territorial gains in the east, plus Crimea. Setting aside the fact that such an outcome would be tantamount to a Russian victory, these predictions could be undone by developments on the ground.

In the coming months, the Biden administration could change course on Ukraine. If the Russians advance in Ukraine, the administration would have two choices: stay the course and increase the risk of Ukrainian losses, or shift from a “for as long as it takes” policy to an approach of “whatever the Ukrainians need to beat the Russians back.” This would potentially increase the risk of escalation with Russia, but it would also deflect the electoral risk of being blamed for the failure of US policy in Ukraine, while giving Kyiv a fighting chance to reach a favorable position from which to negotiate.

The biggest problem remains the Biden administration’s overall approach of providing just enough aid to Kyiv so that Ukraine can hold the line, while draining Russian warfighting capabilities and limiting the risk of nuclear escalation.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-war-in-ukraine-could-reach-a-decision-point-by-the-nato-summit/

 

So that doesn't make any sense?

Isn't it about Denazification of Ukraine, the stop of the Bioweapons labs, something about Bandera? Oh I forgot the persecuted ethnic Russian speaking people of Donbass.

Ah I remember, to preserve the Russian speaking population of Donbass etc..

So turns out Putin decided to slaughter nearly a million Ukrainian and Russian citizens over a 2 year war, Raze whole cities to the ground, commit horrendous war crimes, genocide, rape, torture, theft, and become ultimate base barbarian without a conscience.. essentially the justification being lies about preserving the Russian culture and Language? 

That is what is happening and what happened, it still confuses me to think thar anyone thinks this is normal/acceptable behaviour. 

 

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

If Russia is doing so shit and the funding has been approved then why is the NATO/EU/UK panicking so much?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68880171

FFS, I just want the potholes in the roads fixed, the NHS sorted out and some UK business investment programs but no, we gotta prepare for some future war now. Warmongers can get phucked!

[Staffsknot]

So the US also apparently positioned large stockpiles of ammunition in Germany and Poland as part of operations allowance. This will be available to move to Ukraine within hours of Biden signing the aid bill.

Consignments of stingers and TOW missiles, replens for HIMARS and allegedly ATACMS systems from Block I.

Additionally there are rumours US has agreed to fast track replacement at cost of Patriots donated by 3rd countries and four batteries are in discussion to be donated by countries other than US.

Advancing Russian forces have also bee reporting that they are finding Rpeaters for drones left behind in sectors where Ukrainian troops fallback from. These repeaters are emplaced on trees or telegraph poles or anywhere to extend the range of FPV control signals. This means as Russia advances they are encountering lots of FPV drones and Mavics in their rear area attacking further than they should be able to. EW units have failed to combat this and the monolithic Russian command structure means the problem isn't acknowledged at high level or is shunted down to mid level commanders who lack ay resource to sort out.

Basically its down to individual units to find the repeater stations as they have bob all help. 

It also means Ukraine are using drones far more effectively than Russia and as stop gap artillery

[Quiet Guy]

25 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

So that doesn't make any sense?

Isn't it about Denazification of Ukraine, the stop of the Bioweapons labs, something about Bandera? Oh I forgot the persecuted ethnic Russian speaking people of Donbass.

Ah I remember, to preserve the Russian speaking population of Donbass etc..

So turns out Putin decided to slaughter nearly a million Ukrainian and Russian citizens over a 2 year war, Raze whole cities to the ground, commit horrendous war crimes, genocide, rape, torture, theft, and become ultimate base barbarian without a conscience.. essentially the justification being lies about preserving the Russian culture and Language? 

That is what is happening and what happened, it still confuses me to think thar anyone thinks this is normal/acceptable behaviour. 

 

If you look at what starts wars, isn't this actually normal? I mean a horrendous blood bath over something initially relatively trivial. Once a war gets going, it can be really hard to get it to stop.

Putin was apparently advised that the Russian army could do a "Thunder Run" into Kiev abd it would all be over in a few weeks. We all know how that went.

I'm not supporting this war (there had to be a better way) but consider some words about the "unprovoked" attack:

 

[pig]

5 hours ago, Flat Bear said:

Thank you very much for your reply.

Yes it is very complicated and there is so little information to go on but I think you have come to some realistic conclusions.

This thread in particular has become very toxic as we have those out and out Russian apologists twisting everything no matter how ridiculous alongside some anti western/anti capitalists who just want to see the west fail.

Many like you and me and a number of others with a general view that Russia was wrong in its attack on Ukraine and its general approach to human rights of its own people as well as its disregard for international law and decency look to the war in Ukraine as a fight for a country who want to be free of tyranny and our hearts are naturally with them.

Most of the posts throughout this thread are not at all about actual facts and real information albeit what we don't necessarily want to hear but just about every post is an emotional response to another post ie winding up some body or a sub group of posters which is no good for anyone.

Your reply to me was a more difficult post to make as you actually had to look at the information you had from various sources and come to a logical conclusion. You and I may still subconsciously put a bias on Ukraine but we have had to make a reasoned argument why.

Other questions to ask ourselves could be "What if there is no more aid for Ukraine at all, how would the situation resolve itself"? or another question "What if Ukraine is given a massive aid package from the states, how would this situation resolve itself"? Answers for both questions may not be as easy as first thought.

 

You're right that the toxicity / bad faith contributions have somewhat derailed intelligent debate. But.  Hands up I'm guilty of engaging with the toxicity - a version of 'feeding the troll' instead of debating more the stuff I've actually been following.

Its because imho I think its an important part of the 'hybrid' war and you can't understand it merely by reading about it - and tbh I've learnt a lot from it. The content of posts may often be garbage, but its more about observing the patterns, methods and trying to understand motivation. The extraordinary effort put into it can't be dismissed as easily as the content.

On the actual 'debate' on the war - we can probably 'crowd source' a lot of info between ourselves but there is no way we can match for example somebody who does it for a living. Having said that, I think the best data analysts in the world are probably not the best due to quantity of data but ability to spot crucial data to leverage crucial insight

The questions you posed are live. Ukraine currently hasn't got enough help to win the war, and the countdown to Ukraine running out of ammo again has been reset rather than stopped. It appears to me that they are being given enough for Putin to break himself against Ukraine rather than Ukraine go about breaking Russia. IF its is a deliberate plan its Is as if Putin has been offered a choice to back off, an off-ramp in the form of a pragmatic least worst option.

Also something seems to have happened over the last month or so - lots of political movement:  Macron sabre rattling, Trump backing off, public conditioned for war, Sunaks military spending anouncments etc etc. Those examples could be explained by domestic politics, but I wonder if countries are getting the same intelligence memo,  perhaps about a destructive coordination between China Russia and Iran.

 

 

 

[Si1]

5 hours ago, pig said:

 

The questions you posed are live. Ukraine currently hasn't got enough help to win the war, and the countdown to Ukraine running out of ammo again has been reset rather than stopped. It appears to me that they are being given enough for Putin to break himself against Ukraine rather than Ukraine go about breaking Russia. 

I get that feeling too. Also the lack of US support for a while is almost the west showing a bit of leg to Russia to get them to overcommit to Ukraine. A strategic trap.

Given that the wider geostrategic issue is about breaking Russia's ability to fight them despite the short term costs to Ukraine it may be worth it even for Ukraine.