Will Russia invade Ukraine and what happens if it escalates with NATO/US getting involved

[pig]

1 hour ago, Casual-observer said:

They'll be out of resources long before any victory.

First line of defences are designed to be expendable.....they're supposed to falls in days, not months. 

Of course, in Russia you're supposed to move quickly through mines and slowly through clear areas. That makes sense.

[Casual-observer]

10 minutes ago, fellow said:

Nope, you're thinking of the zero line of defense. The fortified first line of defense is designed to be as impenetrable as possible and is what two thirds of the Russian effort was spent on.

The main obstacle has been the minefields in front of the first defense lines but UA only have to cross this once at one point as the areas behind this are not heavily mined. Soon Ukraine will be able to pour it's reserves through the gap.

The toughest part of the job in the South is almost complete and should be quicker going from now on unless Russia send in a lot more reinforcements.

Except those reserves have been burned through, You're also very wrong suggesting Russia's eggs are all in one first line of defence. There's layers of defences to go through yet. 

 

[fellow]

54 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

Except those reserves have been burned through, You're also very wrong suggesting Russia's eggs are all in one first line of defence. There's layers of defences to go through yet. 

 

I said the main holdup has been the minefields which are generally all in front of the first line. Each of the other defense lines only need to be breached at one point too, or bypassed altogether.

All UA need to do is reach the point where they have fire control over the main supply roads and rail link from Crimea and the Russian occupation of the south becomes unsustainable over the Winter.

Then the F16s arrive to help finish the job in the Spring / Summer of next year.

Edited September 5, 2023 by fellow

[Up the spout]

5 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

Yep, ignoring your unwarranted childish festering fascist bullying bent, there will have to be a negotiated 'European Security Framework' or there will be further escalation to facilitate a world ending nuclear war, that is the two very highly probable outcomes. Being pragmatic, I'm in favour of the former.

That's the second time you've called me childish but you refrain from objecting to my labelling you "a Pro-ruZZia, Chump-loving, nutter-quoting, ********-spreading, anti-UK, anti-West, anti-western media, anti-NATO, ruZZian c*** spouting their BS propaganda" I think I know which I prefer - as do you, it seems. 

Still trying to persuade the Ukrainians to stop slaughtering your terrorist invaders, because they're so useless they can't turn around when being so magnificently routed? Why don't you tell them to leave the illegally occupied lands instead? It'd be very easy and save a lot of death and destruction. Oh right, your demented midget Tsar still wants to occupy Crimea - even at the expense of another 265,000 young ruZZian lives. That putler is not an egotistical maniac at all, nooooo.

[Up the spout]

10 hours ago, pig said:

It certainly makes it hard to figure out how this can all come to an end. High risk it ends up a forever war unless there is a change of objective or regime within Russia.

I'm more confident the end will be the correct one. Ukraine has the backing of NATO - which everyone has accepted would destroy ruZZia in no time, even without using nukes - but the logistics is taking time and the donated weapons aren't being used over the ruZZian borders. So Ukraine has access to some of the most advanced weapons ever made, but can only send their own copies of them to Moscow and that'll obviously take a while to put together.

Ukraine is also unofficially being helped by weapons companies that supply NATO forces with tech and design, so they might even be using some before NATO forces do; Ukraine may well become the most advanced military on the planet (it already is, wrt drone warfare), so how this ends against a terrorist state led by drunken idiots with ultra-low morale and soviet-era junk is pretty clear.

[Staffsknot]

8 hours ago, Drat said:

Firstly, you are trying to be clever but you used the word in entirely the wrong context

Secondly, it is reported on the front page of the BBC news website

Thirdly, wibble

 

You'd think given Zugz propensity to talk utter shite he'd at least be good at it by now...

[Staffsknot]

6 hours ago, zugzwang said:

The Neocon f**kwits at the Telegraph have finally got around to reporting it.

A Frenchman called Hamish de Bretton-Gordon admits that it's a vulnerable pile of crap in not so many words.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/09/05/british-challenger-tank-destroyed-video-ukraine-robotyne/

 

This isn't even a second rate post by you, its so far below 3rd rate it could qualify as Russian military engineering

Firstly any tank is vulnerable to certain weapons, second the Challenger 2 is one of the least susceptible to such weapons ( far more survivable than the inferior weapons favoured by Russia and their Chinese knock-offs), thirdly crew survivability is a priority beyond vehicle survival as skilled crews are more valuable as assets than vehicles... you still haven't figured this out as you have yetto be righton anything in this thread.

[satsuma]

Its interesting that China and Russia are so happy to finally destroy one British tank in the face of losing 5000 Commie tanks 

[pig]

10 hours ago, Up the spout said:

I'm more confident the end will be the correct one. Ukraine has the backing of NATO - which everyone has accepted would destroy ruZZia in no time, even without using nukes - but the logistics is taking time and the donated weapons aren't being used over the ruZZian borders. So Ukraine has access to some of the most advanced weapons ever made, but can only send their own copies of them to Moscow and that'll obviously take a while to put together.

Ukraine is also unofficially being helped by weapons companies that supply NATO forces with tech and design, so they might even be using some before NATO forces do; Ukraine may well become the most advanced military on the planet (it already is, wrt drone warfare), so how this ends against a terrorist state led by drunken idiots with ultra-low morale and soviet-era junk is pretty clear.

I think what I'm saying is that a simple military victory for Ukraine isn't enough. The Putin administration, Russian extremists and fellow travellers have a delirious grasp of what 'Russia' is and what the 'West' is. 

Considerable thought will need to be given to how to get to a stable post-war state, and that consideration would need to be 'hybrid'. For example there is an extremely high chance that in the scenario that there is a 'victory' for Ukraine, give it a few years and little green men will start appearing again....

Furthermore, as the ultimate Putinist objective appears to be to maximum control of Europe,  this end state would need to be a hybrid defensive new 'iron curtain' sustained by Europe as a whole.

 

[70PC]

12 hours ago, Casual-observer said:

 There's layers of defences to go through yet. 

Plus these

[zugzwang]

14 hours ago, 70PC said:

"The crew then evacuated safely"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/british-challenger-2-tank-destroyed-in-combat-for-first-time-ukraine-footage-shows

All over themselves. 😆

 

[zugzwang]

21 minutes ago, pig said:

I think what I'm saying is that a simple military victory for Ukraine isn't enough. The Putin administration, Russian extremists and fellow travellers have a delirious grasp of what 'Russia' is and what the 'West' is. 

Considerable thought will need to be given to how to get to a stable post-war state, and that consideration would need to be 'hybrid'. For example there is an extremely high chance that in the scenario that there is a 'victory' for Ukraine, give it a few years and little green men will start appearing again....

Furthermore, as the ultimate Putinist objective appears to be to maximum control of Europe,  this end state would need to be a hybrid defensive new 'iron curtain' sustained by Europe as a whole.

 

That's why we gave him the World Cup in 2018. To encourage his expansionist objectives!

 

There is no path to 'victory' for the Ukraine Biden/Johnson/NATO because China is the real enemy as I've explained many times already. The USUK empire dare not escalate and risk a nuclear conflagration leaving China as sole regnant superpower.

Putin will determine the terms of any ceasefire. General Zod will be lucky to get away with the skin on his behind!

[pig]

31 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

That's why we gave him the World Cup in 2018. To encourage his expansionist objectives!

 

There is no path to 'victory' for the Ukraine Biden/Johnson/NATO because China is the real enemy as I've explained many times already. The USUK empire dare not escalate and risk a nuclear conflagration leaving China as sole regnant superpower.

Putin will determine the terms of any ceasefire. General Zod will be lucky to get away with the skin on his behind!

This is also what I mean by 'delirious' .

[Casual-observer]

13 hours ago, fellow said:

I said the main holdup has been the minefields which are generally all in front of the first line. Each of the other defense lines only need to be breached at one point too, or bypassed altogether.

All UA need to do is reach the point where they have fire control over the main supply roads and rail link from Crimea and the Russian occupation of the south becomes unsustainable over the Winter.

Then the F16s arrive to help finish the job in the Spring / Summer of next year.

Again, this 'holdup' has taken them months as they've been chewed up in the greyzone. 

You need reserves to exploit these breaches and Ukraine openly stated they already committed these reserves just to supposedly establish a breakthrough. 

The Russian defences held out for months, they've done what they were supposed to do which was chew up Ukraine forces.  

 

[Fishfinger]

10 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

 thirdly crew survivability is a priority beyond vehicle survival as skilled crews are more valuable as assets than vehicles.

Which is great if there was an infinite supply of Challengers but there isn't. I believe there's only 13 green bottles Challengers left in the Ukraine and we're not supplying anymore? 

[pig]

36 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

Again, this 'holdup' has taken them months as they've been chewed up in the greyzone. 

You need reserves to exploit these breaches and Ukraine openly stated they already committed these reserves just to supposedly establish a breakthrough. 

The Russian defences held out for months, they've done what they were supposed to do which was chew up Ukraine forces.  

 

As far as I can work out Russia is still after a 'maximalist' surrender, but  I very much doubt Russian propagandists are screaming for a ceasefire out of concern for Ukraine.

[Fishfinger]

14 hours ago, fellow said:

I said the main holdup has been the minefields which are generally all in front of the first line. Each of the other defense lines only need to be breached at one point too, or bypassed altogether.

All UA need to do is reach the point where they have fire control over the main supply roads and rail link from Crimea and the Russian occupation of the south becomes unsustainable over the Winter.

Then the F16s arrive to help finish the job in the Spring / Summer of next year.

I thought the whole point of this 3 month offensive was to reach the sea of Azov? So far they're no where near there despite taking horrendous casualties.

There's 10-12 Ukrainian pilots slated for training and they don't all speak English so the F16 Haynes manual might be a bit of a challenge..   This is from CNN before the kiddies on here shout propaganda.

F-16 questions remain as Ukrainian pilots set to start training this month | CNN Politics

[fellow]

1 hour ago, Fishfinger said:

I thought the whole point of this 3 month offensive was to reach the sea of Azov? So far they're no where near there despite taking horrendous casualties.

Yes, ideally it was. However, no war ever goes according to plan, as Putin discovered with his plans. Offense is extremely difficult and has the potential to change suddenly from months of very slow grind to total front line collapse in a matter of days (as per Kharkiv).

[Casual-observer]

3 minutes ago, fellow said:

Yes, ideally it was. However, no war ever goes according to plan, as Putin discovered with his plans. Offense is extremely difficult and has the potential to change suddenly from months of very slow grind to total front line collapse in a matter of days (as per Kharkiv).

It was pretty obvious the Russian militias simply pulled back from Kharkiv, there was no collapse of a front line.  

The Russians since mobilised and are now retaking that area. 

If the Russians felt they could hold the southern front they wouldn't be advancing in the North. 

It's also a sign of desperation when Ukraine are demanding Europe now force back to there a man power pool who left in the first place. It's also a sign of someone's own callous attitude to merrily support such an action. 

[Up the spout]

4 hours ago, pig said:

I think what I'm saying is that a simple military victory for Ukraine isn't enough. The Putin administration, Russian extremists and fellow travellers have a delirious grasp of what 'Russia' is and what the 'West' is. 

Considerable thought will need to be given to how to get to a stable post-war state, and that consideration would need to be 'hybrid'. For example there is an extremely high chance that in the scenario that there is a 'victory' for Ukraine, give it a few years and little green men will start appearing again....

Furthermore, as the ultimate Putinist objective appears to be to maximum control of Europe,  this end state would need to be a hybrid defensive new 'iron curtain' sustained by Europe as a whole.

Yeah, I didn't mean defeat of putler was just eliminating every orc on Ukraine's territory; there's obviously a lot more to defeating a once superpower that's drunk on history and vodka, but internal conflict should do the job. Defeat at the hands of the 60th richest country in the world by GDP will be spectacularly humiliating for them, which will likely cause much inward looking anguish and more than a few of the protagonists ending up in gulags or worse.

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

That's why we gave him the World Cup in 2018. To encourage his expansionist objectives!

 

Not the first time the Mafia has bought a President and a big tournament - it's probably one of the conditions FIFA demand.

3 hours ago, pig said:

This is also what I mean by 'delirious' .

As always, money (i.e. bribes) talks.

2 hours ago, Casual-observer said:

Again, this 'holdup' has taken them months as they've been chewed up in the greyzone. 

You need reserves to exploit these breaches and Ukraine openly stated they already committed these reserves just to supposedly establish a breakthrough. 

The Russian defences held out for months, they've done what they were supposed to do which was chew up Ukraine forces.  

Ukraine has not stated anything because their OpSec is second to none - you did and immediately gave away your naivety - yours is just none.

1 hour ago, Fishfinger said:

I thought the whole point of this 3 month offensive was to reach the sea of Azov? So far they're no where near there despite taking horrendous casualties.

There's 10-12 Ukrainian pilots slated for training and they don't all speak English so the F16 Haynes manual might be a bit of a challenge..   This is from CNN before the kiddies on here shout propaganda.

F-16 questions remain as Ukrainian pilots set to start training this month | CNN Politics

"There's 10-12 Ukrainian pilots slated for training and they don't all speak English"

So, brainiac, how could they be Ukrainian military pilots in the first place? 

You (and CNN) obviously have zero experience training aircrew or military, plus you probably both have required column inches to fill your daily quotas. I bet neither of these authors even know which exam international pilots - which is generally all of them, seeing as how crossing borders in a plane tends to happen quite a lot - need to pass or which grade different airlines and militaries demand (hint: they're above the scores required for postgrads but below those needed by surgeons and astronauts). 

[70PC]

15 minutes ago, Casual-observer said:

It was pretty obvious the Russian militias simply pulled back from Kharkiv, there was no collapse of a front line.  

The Russians since mobilised and are now retaking that area. 

If the Russians felt they could hold the southern front they wouldn't be advancing in the North. 

It's also a sign of desperation when Ukraine are demanding Europe now force back to there a man power pool who left in the first place. It's also a sign of someone's own callous attitude to merrily support such an action. 

This is a very tough fight for Ukraine but they are the ones moving forward. Your post has too many wild assumptions and loaded language. 

On the matter of more bodies to throw into the fight, this is from the Guardian

"Cuba uncovers ‘human trafficking ring’ recruiting for Russia’s war in Ukraine"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/05/cuba-uncovers-human-trafficking-ring-recruiting-for-russias-war-in-ukraine

As for retaking Kharkiv, this is the deep state map today. 

Cuba uncovers ‘human trafficking ring’ recruiting for Russia’s war in Ukraine 

[70PC]

Russian holiday makers in Crimea upset at having to go home early due to special military operation (driver tries to help in second one). Meanwhile, Ukrainian families are trying to stay alive in their homes. 

 

 

 

[mynamehere]

There has basically been no net change on the northern front this summer so unsure what C-O is referring to by 'retaking the area'.  

 

June vs today

 

 

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, mynamehere said:

There has basically been no net change on the northern front this summer so unsure what C-O is referring to by 'retaking the area'.  

 

June vs today

 

 

Seventeen square feet.

 

[Peter Hun]

18 hours ago, Staffsknot said:

You'd think given Zugz propensity to talk utter shite he'd at least be good at it by now...

Lol