Where are all the houses?

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

Interesting thread on MN where viewings for prospective buyers will only get a viewing if their own property is SSTC. I've never seen or heard of that before:

 

"As @CasperGutman has said, in this market you have to have sold STC before you'll even be allowed a viewing, so it's important to complete this step first."

 

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/4301209-Where-are-all-the-houses

 

 

 

[msi]

The last hurrah.  Purchases are taking longer and longer, chains are straining, and EAs need to keep plates spinning.

 

 

[Si1]

Makes sense. If the market is basically second steppers using the stamp duty holiday, then (1) they're time limited so they have to be sstc to stand a chance of completing in time and (2) they're leveraging the stamp duty holiday to get maximum borrowing to keep the chain highly valued

[Si1]

What will end the logjam? Eventually forced sellers - deaths, delinquencies and divorce. Alongside the end of covid subsidies and the stamp duty holiday.

[msi]

7 minutes ago, Si1 said:

What will end the logjam? Eventually forced sellers - deaths, delinquencies and divorce. Alongside the end of covid subsidies and the stamp duty holiday.

That's what the Government have removed.  Probates are snapped up by leveraged 'developers' using QE funny money.  Delinquencies are removed by Forbearance and Furlough.  Divorces are held up due to COVID or delaying using forbearance.

 

What happens next when Furlough ends, when Banks now want to get rid of the QE book and pay themselves dividends, when companies shrink and divorces spin up?

[Si1]

9 minutes ago, msi said:

That's what the Government have removed.  Probates are snapped up by leveraged 'developers' using QE funny money.  Delinquencies are removed by Forbearance and Furlough.  Divorces are held up due to COVID or delaying using forbearance.

 

What happens next when Furlough ends, when Banks now want to get rid of the QE book and pay themselves dividends, when companies shrink and divorces spin up?

Delinquencies were suppressed by forbearance, furlough, and a repossession ban which ended in May. So yeah.

[msi]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

Delinquencies were suppressed by forbearance, furlough, and a repossession ban which ended in May. So yeah.

Rep ban ended in May - at least 6 months to get to repo order, so November before the Xmas break.

Furlough ends in October

Commercial rental arrears collection ban ends March 2022

 

[Si1]

9 minutes ago, msi said:

Rep ban ended in May - at least 6 months to get to repo order, so November before the Xmas break.

But maybe another month until said houses actually come to market??

9 minutes ago, msi said:

Furlough ends in October

Commercial rental arrears collection ban ends March 2022

 

 

[msi]

4 minutes ago, Si1 said:

But maybe another month until said houses actually come to market??

 

So December, a month that is pretty dead, so yeah

[Si1]

8 minutes ago, msi said:

So December, a month that is pretty dead, so yeah

Interesting.

Would you agree that this week should pretty much be the practical end of the influence of the stamp duty holiday?

[spyguy]

My theory  -

IO BTL has distorted the UK housing market, removing ~20 years of buyers and equity from housing.

Mix in tax credits, where ~50% of families have moved from low/mid paid FT jobs to PT low paid jobs. Great whilst youve got school age kids. Disaster when they hit 18.

The house buyers/equity./movers aged 20-50 barely exist.

UK housign is largely over 50s who, despite the BS, struggle to sell.

IO BTL scumlords, whove not twigged they are going to be bust.

The only major properdee hotspot was London/Se,. which looks like a busted flush at the mo.

Now youve got the over 70s facing a higher death rate.

 

 

 

 

 

[msi]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

My theory  -

IO BTL has distorted the UK housing market, removing ~20 years of buyers and equity from housing.

Mix in tax credits, where ~50% of families have moved from low/mid paid FT jobs to PT low paid jobs. Great whilst youve got school age kids. Disaster when they hit 18.

The house buyers/equity./movers aged 20-50 barely exist.

UK housign is largely over 50s who, despite the BS, struggle to sell.

IO BTL scumlords, whove not twigged they are going to be bust.

The only major properdee hotspot was London/Se,. which looks like a busted flush at the mo.

Now youve got the over 70s facing a higher death rate.

If inflation rips, where does the smart money go?

In Equities that pick up the extra printy and give a passive 7 - 10 % ?

In BTL, barely giving 4% with the hassle of voids, arrears, tax, maintenance?

[spyguy]

57 minutes ago, msi said:

If inflation rips, where does the smart money go?

In Equities that pick up the extra printy and give a passive 7 - 10 % ?

In BTL, barely giving 4% with the hassle of voids, arrears, tax, maintenance?

4% ..... in your dreams!

All the io btl I've seen in the South are sub 3% gross.

Insane.

[shlomo]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

4% ..... in your dreams!

All the io btl I've seen in the South are sub 3% gross.

Insane.

Is this number based on what the property would sell for, rather than what it is purchased for

[wighty]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

4% ..... in your dreams!

All the io btl I've seen in the South are sub 3% gross.

Insane.

You've not been watching Homes under the Hammer, lol

[locky82]

We were interested in a house back in March, anyway long story short...We couldn't view because we wasn't on the market. Started  the process and it went SSTC so we stopped...

Anyways received a call from the EA! Nothings coming to market so cant get top prices! Is it conceivable that volumes get so low that EA's, conveyancers, mortgage brokers etc start going out of business?  

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, locky82 said:

We were interested in a house back in March, anyway long story short...We couldn't view because we wasn't on the market. Started  the process and it went SSTC so we stopped...

Anyways received a call from the EA! Nothings coming to market so cant get top prices! Is it conceivable that volumes get so low that EA's, conveyancers, mortgage brokers etc start going out of business?  

I genuinely think that UK mortgages are dying on its **** as a mass market product.

The funding difference between, say, HSBC and nationwide, means all tye smaller lenders are going out of business - unless they can offer something different - going back to what local building societies were.

 Currently, only the top 25% can afford a mortgage.

[winkie]

With sales falling through, what about all those that have a buyer at a fixed price but are unable to find anything suitable to buy, they will therefore not be selling.....pull out, another chain breaks down.

[Si1]

13 minutes ago, winkie said:

With sales falling through, what about all those that have a buyer at a fixed price but are unable to find anything suitable to buy, they will therefore not be selling.....pull out, another chain breaks down.

And - darn it - stamp duty holiday is over

[Fromage Frais]

On 24/07/2021 at 08:53, spyguy said:

My theory  -

IO BTL has distorted the UK housing market, removing ~20 years of buyers and equity from housing.

Mix in tax credits, where ~50% of families have moved from low/mid paid FT jobs to PT low paid jobs. Great whilst youve got school age kids. Disaster when they hit 18.

The house buyers/equity./movers aged 20-50 barely exist.

UK housign is largely over 50s who, despite the BS, struggle to sell.

IO BTL scumlords, whove not twigged they are going to be bust.

The only major properdee hotspot was London/Se,. which looks like a busted flush at the mo.

Now youve got the over 70s facing a higher death rate.

 

 

 

 

 

Question for everyone.

Whats better for the economy...

Scenario 1
 

• grannie dies
• bungalow goes on market 400k
• Builder buys bungalow beating competition
• fixes it up whilst "living in caravan"
• Sells it for 650,0000
• no tax paid under PRR

Scenario 2

• grannie dies
• bungalow goes on market for 400k sells for 350
• New owner pays builder 200k for renovations Vat paid on invoices
• Builder pays tax on profits
• Sold after a few years and actually lives in it.

 

Around here the most overpriced and for sale for ages properties are the "flipped" ones.  It also has the side effect that builders will both pay the most and wait out the longest....and if you need one for a regular building job there is a real shortage, as why bother doing taxable work?

What is best for the economy?  Must be how it is because PRR relief must be a huge loss at the moment as nearly all the local builders are at it.

I think thats why they wont touch it as so many builders and buyers are flippers even if they may delude themselves they are not.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Fromage Frais

[BobbyZZZ]

On 23/07/2021 at 18:20, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Interesting thread on MN where viewings for prospective buyers will only get a viewing if their own property is SSTC. I've never seen or heard of that before:

 

"As @CasperGutman has said, in this market you have to have sold STC before you'll even be allowed a viewing, so it's important to complete this step first."

 

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/4301209-Where-are-all-the-houses

 

 

 

Whenever I have put anything up for sale, whatever the market,  I have always stipulated proceedable punters only 

[spyguy]

53 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Question for everyone.

Whats better for the economy...

Scenario 1
 

• grannie dies
• bungalow goes on market 400k
• Builder buys bungalow beating competition
• fixes it up whilst "living in caravan"
• Sells it for 650,0000
• no tax paid under PRR

Scenario 2

• grannie dies
• bungalow goes on market for 400k sells for 350
• New owner pays builder 200k for renovations Vat paid on invoices
• Builder pays tax on profits
• Sold after a few years and actually lives in it.

 

Around here the most overpriced and for sale for ages properties are the "flipped" ones.  It also has the side effect that builders will both pay the most and wait out the longest....and if you need one for a regular building job there is a real shortage, as why bother doing taxable work?

What is best for the economy?  Must be how it is because PRR relief must be a huge loss at the moment as nearly all the local builders are at it.

I think thats why they wont touch it as so many builders and buyers are flippers even if they may delude themselves they are not.

CGT.

Start at 50%.

Discount by 1% every year house lived in.

Yes, UK building sector is not a positive to the UK economy - shit houses, rampant tax dodging, etc.

[Si1]

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9818035/amp/Skipton-boss-David-Cutter-housing-boom-savers-low-rate-misery-end.html

 

"The real challenge in the housing market is the lack of stock. Some of our estate agent branches have literally a handful of houses to sell, and if an instruction does come up, the house will sell very, very quickly. "

[Dweller]

On 23/07/2021 at 18:20, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Interesting thread on MN where viewings for prospective buyers will only get a viewing if their own property is SSTC. I've never seen or heard of that before:

 

"As @CasperGutman has said, in this market you have to have sold STC before you'll even be allowed a viewing, so it's important to complete this step first."

 

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/4301209-Where-are-all-the-houses

 

I thought this was always the case? Certainly the last few moves we have done we couldn't look at a property unless we were SSTC. In the current market you need to be a cash buyer don't you in order to outbid everyone else on an already overpriced property. 

 

 

[winkie]

6 hours ago, Si1 said:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9818035/amp/Skipton-boss-David-Cutter-housing-boom-savers-low-rate-misery-end.html

 

"The real challenge in the housing market is the lack of stock. Some of our estate agent branches have literally a handful of houses to sell, and if an instruction does come up, the house will sell very, very quickly. "

So a home of value comes onto the market......three offers, which one will be accepted, the one with something to sell or the one where they are ready to go?

What is the cost of a bridging loan these days?

Edited July 26, 2021 by winkie