Spoke to boss man of one of the big property websites - big issue driving up prices is low supply due to COVID

[Si1]

29 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

OK, so there's pent up supply but, logically, doesn't the same apply to demand? Headline housebreaking figures that get breathlessly quoted by industry shills are largely based on notionsl asking prices that are designed to be a unpalatable ask yo ensure a negotiation ends up closer to what the vendor will really sell for. Given the market has basically ground to a halt I don't believe there's any way of knowing what the real market is like.

Strikes me the market right now is people who have to sell for some reason dealing with people who think they're getting a good deal due to the stamp duty holiday. I think most "regular" people are just battoning down the hatches until things get back to normal and will accept stamp duty if they have to because, as we all know  "you can't lose on bricks and mortar."

Furlough, payment holidays cladding issues, HK investors etc;  how much demand or supply are these holding back? With a reported 50% of firms looking to hire this year and the vaccination program going better than expected, I wouldn't bet against a real terms bounce in the coming year to be honest.  

We know sentiment is a huge factor; if bojo can somehow come put smelling of roses it might be a longer term bounce. Better hope England doesn't get to host the euros......

Unemployment. 

[Hullabaloo82]

46 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Unemployment. 

I think we've discussed this before on here; how many of the newly unemployed were candidates for a house purchase anyway? Professionals will probably have picked up a tidy redundancy package, a bit of remote contracting and then getting themselves a new job in the summer when the reopening really gets going. 

If you worked at Sports Direct, tragic to lose a job but the only difference to the property market is the proportion of your rents that's paid by HB/UC. 

Unemployment is now looking really unlikely yo hit the apocalyptic levels previously predicted and almost certainly won't trouble the market sectors that are actually making purchases. 

[Si1]

5 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

I think we've discussed this before on here; how many of the newly unemployed were candidates for a house purchase anyway? Professionals will probably have picked up a tidy redundancy package, a bit of remote contracting and then getting themselves a new job in the summer when the reopening really gets going. 

If you worked at Sports Direct, tragic to lose a job but the only difference to the property market is the proportion of your rents that's paid by HB/UC. 

Unemployment is now looking really unlikely yo hit the apocalyptic levels previously predicted and almost certainly won't trouble the market sectors that are actually making purchases. 

Yields. Markets.

[Si1]

Since the property market isn't actually been locked down then there isn't a wall of money waiting to go into that. It already has. But there is a wall of money waiting to soak the rest of the economy, more than usual on an economy with less supply capacity than usual. This will bring very real inflationary risks.

With regards to housing, that money is already being employed. I can only see this housing wall of money reducing as the economy opens up and govt support reduces.

And the yields in investment properties have taken a big hit from unemployment and reduced covid demand. It is just a fact that rents are much lower. And covid hasn't actually gone away yet.

Edited March 7, 2021 by Si1

[cbathpc]

On 05/03/2021 at 15:35, sammersmith said:

I always thought Burnham (GM mayor) introduced zones to give Manc a London feel. Londoners understand zones and talk about them often in relation to property. HKers priced out of London will think that the universal truth is 'Zone 1 = good' so will pay a premium.  

However, it's slightly different in Manchester. Most people in Manc, even young single people, want to live in Didsbury. Londoners moving up do rent in the city centre at first often because it's a novelty being able to afford it! If they stay any length of time though they'll usually move somewhere south of the city centre.

Exactly where i used to live when i first came here. Near the MoSI. If you have to live in central Manc then this is probably one of the better places. 

Whilst there is plenty of scene in the city centre, there is no infrastructure for families. It's nothing like London in that regard

[GregBowman]

On 05/03/2021 at 11:11, captainb said:

Makes sense. Wait until people are asked to come back to the office in London X days a week before pitching them your rural Northumberland home... 

Especially pre the train companies organising anything like a realistic flexible season ticket that recognises our new working patterns

In the end Covid new ways of working are probably still not as big factors as people think.

The classic considerations will always apply Job prospects, schools,house type etc

There was probably a window to play some form of arbitrage but I suspect with all the opening up vibes at the moment that moment has passed

[captainb]

56 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Especially pre the train companies organising anything like a realistic flexible season ticket that recognises our new working patterns

In the end Covid new ways of working are probably still not as big factors as people think.

The classic considerations will always apply Job prospects, schools,house type etc

There was probably a window to play some form of arbitrage but I suspect with all the opening up vibes at the moment that moment has passed

I get that maybe some places on the coast work now that the commute might be 3 days a week not 5.

But having done long commutes it's dire. Yeah not having to do it on a friday is better... But you know what? Having to do it Monday to Wednesday is still soul destroying. I'm not sure it makes it a decent work life balance tbh. Unless you have specific reasons to be in x Yorkshire Town such as that's where the family and kids school is. 

[GregBowman]

45 minutes ago, captainb said:

I get that maybe some places on the coast work now that the commute might be 3 days a week not 5.

But having done long commutes it's dire. Yeah not having to do it on a friday is better... But you know what? Having to do it Monday to Wednesday is still soul destroying. I'm not sure it makes it a decent work life balance tbh. Unless you have specific reasons to be in x Yorkshire Town such as that's where the family and kids school is. 

Yep - I think the death of cities has been greatly exaggerated 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Yep - I think the death of cities has been greatly exaggerated 

I'm going to move to London when the prices collapse.  Leave the shires to the idiots who've pay 80% too much to love there.

[GenZ]

What about all those HK migrants?  Aren’t they going to snap up all that “cheap” property in London  Average price for a HK flat is north of 800K .   But good luck 😊

[Si1]

5 minutes ago, GenZ said:

What about all those HK migrants?  Aren’t they going to snap up all that “cheap” property in London  Average price for a HK flat is north of 800K .   But good luck 😊

Because if, literally, half Hong Kong's population leave Hong Kong, they'll be able to actually sell their properties?

[GregBowman]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I'm going to move to London when the prices collapse.  Leave the shires to the idiots who've pay 80% too much to love there.

Not sure they will collapse (same old story good mature areas will soften, new neighbourhoods will plummet the only thing going for them is a London postcode)  everywhere will  certainly go down, but there will be a floor  because your not the only one thinking  that. Think there are  a hell of a lot of Londoners myself included who moved to the edge of London within easy reach of London for detached houses, the ability to access countryside easily and a good lifestyle for our kids. We are seriously looking at moving  back in seems we are not alone there has been quite a few article recently about this trend

 

 

 

 

 

[shlomo]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I'm going to move to London when the prices collapse.  Leave the shires to the idiots who've pay 80% too much to love there.

What part of london 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

39 minutes ago, shlomo said:

What part of london 

Buckingham palace.  Viva le revolution.

[shlomo]

8 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Buckingham palace.  Viva le revolution.

Wrong lineage 

[Si1]

On 08/03/2021 at 13:46, GenZ said:

What about all those HK migrants?  Aren’t they going to snap up all that “cheap” property in London  Average price for a HK flat is north of 800K .   But good luck 😊

Oh yeah, and the Chinese government is going to ban them from leaving. Good luck with your immigration fantasy dude.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/13/hong-kong-alarm-over-proposed-law-that-could-ban-anyone-from-leaving

 

[scottbeard]

On 06/03/2021 at 16:57, Bugger BTL said:

They do amuse me when they fail to realise how much countryside is easily available to so much of the population outside the M25.

There is quite a lot of countryside INSIDE the M25.  It always surprises me, but it's true.

(I live outside the M25, but have actually crossed into it to do country walks!)

[Fromage Frais]

47 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Oh yeah, and the Chinese government is going to ban them from leaving. Good luck with your immigration fantasy dude.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/13/hong-kong-alarm-over-proposed-law-that-could-ban-anyone-from-leaving

 

Exit tax = problem solved for them

[Si1]

43 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Exit tax = problem solved for them

I wonder what that does for Hong Kong property prices?

 

 

[HovelinHove]

Well now 10 days into my house purchasing saga, in which we had an offer accepted on a sale due to divorce, that we feel is a fair price in the current bonkers market (it's not cheap, just fair...Jan 202 price), I can say that the post is correct. Good houses sell quickly in our area (less than a week) because there is a poor supply of them, and I don't see things changing any time soon with endless props being provided by the government. Activity will pick up in the spring, but I don't think there will be much downward pressure. I will have a small mortgage, keep lots of cash aside in case job goes TU, and forget about price changes. It's either that or constant anxiety that my cash will be burned by vile central bankers and corrupt Tories.