Fromage Frais Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 (edited) So they're going to fix Capitalism by... Abandoning Capitalism??? Yes and also... He also insisted he remained a low-tax, libertarian Conservative who would pay for the cost of the pandemic through a "free market-led recovery" and dismissed talk of rivalry between him and Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, as "untrue". Apparently tax payer underwritten mortgages are "free market". If in doubt go full Tony Blair > Brown > Osbourne (one trick pony) Edited October 3, 2020 by Fromage Frais Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Although to me London is just a little town somewhere south of Watford (little northern humour)...I think you are spot on re London It’s perfectly understandable (although totally wrong) that the London market has a massive political influence on policy. SDLT relief extension, negative rates, 30% off for key workers, help to sell? 🤦🏻♂️ The MPs up to their necks in London pwopatee will try everything to stop themselves losing out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 (edited) The big talking point will be London, I can't believe it and there's a lot of data to come in but we could be seeing a 5% mom fall, so possibly down 10%+ since April. @TheCountOfNowhere I can't wait to see your index. 😁 Some sellers seem to understand falls are happening, others not. I continue to see asking price way above anything ever achieved for similar properties. Although to me London is just a little town somewhere south of Watford (little northern humour)...I think you are spot on re London It’s perfectly understandable (although totally wrong) that the London market has a massive political influence on policy. SDLT relief extension, negative rates, 30% off for key workers, help to sell? 🤦🏻♂️ @Pop321 I hope London starts to correct, officially, as I am not prepared to rely on any government scheme, key-worker or not. I hold the view that if we cannot buy under our own steam, we cannot afford to buy. Edited October 3, 2020 by Buffer Bear To add forum member. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Buffer Bear said: I hold the view that if we cannot buy under our own steam, we cannot afford to buy. I've always held the view if I cannot buy without a mortgage, I cannot afford to buy. Though I'm extremely averse to borrowing anything, I'm feeling more and more an idiot with each passing day. Sadly, at the age of 41, I've saved what would have been enough for a nice 3 bed semi had house prices risen normally from 90s prices. As it stands my life savings are, at best, a 35% deposit today. Edited October 3, 2020 by Orb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neon tetra Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 I've always held the view if I cannot buy without a mortgage, I cannot afford to buy. Though I'm extremely averse to borrowing anything, I'm feeling more and more an idiot with each passing day. Sadly, at the age of 41, I've saved what would have been enough for a nice 3 bed semi had house prices risen normally from 90s prices. As it stands my life savings are, at best, a 35% deposit today. I hold identical views, am identically the same age, but had a 40% deposit. I bought in August. I hate the debt I now have, but I’ve got a roof over my head. Wish I’d been able to wait another couple of years. But family reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 (edited) I've always held the view if I cannot buy without a mortgage, I cannot afford to buy. Though I'm extremely averse to borrowing anything, I'm feeling more and more an idiot with each passing day. Sadly, at the age of 41, I've saved what would have been enough for a nice 3 bed semi had house prices risen normally from 90s prices. As it stands my life savings are, at best, a 35% deposit today. Tbh, I use to say that to people and got laughed out. Although through very sad circumstances, we are now in that position although we would have to move a few miles further out. However, my father worked hard for his money, so I have no intention of wasting it especially at this unique time in the history of the housing market. We are waiting and with each reduction, the quality/size of what we can afford increases. I am older than you so I wouldn't worry too much about that as long as you continue to save, which we have always done, well mostly. Your life savings might be worth a 35% deposit today but could easily be a 50%+ deposit next year or so. I'm risk adverse too as many years ago I witnessed the 1989 - 1995 downturn as I worked in a county court. I hadn't understood its significance at the time. Saw people lose their homes and up to their eyes in debt - this was an invaluable lesson. We're happy to watch for the next year, or two or three or whatever (was tempted last month as a house came up 50k lower than anything but then I came to my senses!). Not jumping in at the turn of the correction even with a 'saving' of 15k stamp duty (65k in total) but not trying to buy at the bottom either, thus, don't mind catching a falling knife, just not when it is first dropped. Btw, you are not 'idiot'. You've saved, and, hopefully will still be able to buy even with a mortgage, which to be honest, is the normal way. Depending on whether you can wait or not, the location you wish to buy etc, the mortgage free option may become a reality. If not, you also have plenty of time to pay off any mortgage and have the option to overpay if you can. Given the length of time we have not been able to afford to buy, our mortgage term is much reduced by that's fine too as we always saved with this in mind. Based on the the area that we would consider living in, we will need a mortgage but over the short term as things stand, if house prices come down by 20% in our chosen area, we could reduce the term further. When I consider the worse case scenario - 30% (I acknowledge it could be worse - who knows?), and if I hold onto my job, we could buy cash. Lots of variables so I don't get too hung up on any of this. When the time is right both you and I will know it. Good luck. I hold identical views, am identically the same age, but had a 40% deposit. I bought in August. I hate the debt I now have, but I’ve got a roof over my head. Wish I’d been able to wait another couple of years. But family reasons. Family reasons are good enough but hope you bought for the long-term. Edited October 3, 2020 by Buffer Bear added a sentence. Invaluable lesson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 42 minutes ago, Buffer Bear said: Depending on whether you can wait or not, the location you wish to buy etc, the mortgage free option may become a reality. I can wait for a long time. I already have. The location I want, my home town of Northampton, my savings would currently buy something cash at the extreme bottom end of the market - that is a very grotty bedsit above a kebab shop on a busy junction with no parking. It would also buy an ex-BTL terraced in Yorkshire or Lancashire cash, so there's those options. But it kills me that Terraced houses in Northampton were selling for £40k in 1997, and according to the BOE inflation calculator that would be worth £73k now. They're £200k minimum. We'd need a 60% drop in nominal terms for me to pick up the cheapest house in Northampton without a mortgage. Can't see that happening. It's very depressing when your savings, which represent years of hard work, stretch only to a dilapidated ex-council garage in London, or a beach hut in West Sussex. I never in my wildest dreams thought interest rates could hit 1% at best for 12 years, then drop to zero, and have the effect it did on the housing market. I was convinced in 2010 that the then "sky high" prices would definitely crash within a few years. I'm not gonna lie, but I'm gagging for a massive crash! Anyway, it's better to think positively and take another course of action, as it's negative to dwell too much on it. Just wanted to express my disappointment. I'm sure there are thousands of others with the same rant. In the spirit of 1984's ending, perhaps I should join the ranks of the lifelong indebted, and profess to love it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 The top is coming - 100%. I'm not calling it. Yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 I can wait for a long time. I already have. GOOD! Anyway, it's better to think positively and take another course of action, as it's negative to dwell too much on it. Just wanted to express my disappointment. I'm sure there are thousands of others with the same rant. Sometimes we need to do this. 😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 (edited) Either August or September will be the top of the property bubble. (...) I predict that October will see a small decline, then November onwards will see some tasty numbers. A brave call. I think you may be a little early. Edited October 6, 2020 by Timm obviously Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pop321 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 A brave call. I think you may be a little early. Mexican stand-off over November and December. Falls (probably invisible and not in estate agents windows) start around mid January. 😉 Bear in mind a fall is not always met with large scale mass reductions...it is met by a lack of buyers, houses sticking and motivated sellers getting hit big time. Then a gradual acceptance that can take 12/18 months to start coming through asking prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HovelinHove Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 A brave call. I think you may be a little early. You may be right. This is an oil tanker turning after all. The peak may well be October or November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hp72 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Mortgage warning: Rates to rise 'as soon as March 2021' as new rules introduced - be aware https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1343808/mortgage-warning-costs-rise-regulations-bills-increase “The regulator’s most recent guidance around capital requirements for mortgages demonstrates concerns that some banks are setting their buffers too low. “So, the PRA has proposed that banks set higher buffers for their mortgage products.” While at first glance this may seem like a sensible decision, Rob went on to warn it could lead to additional raised costs for final consumers. On 29/09/2020 at 17:04, satsuma said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Mortgage warning: Rates to rise 'as soon as March 2021' as new rules introduced - be aware https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1343808/mortgage-warning-costs-rise-regulations-bills-increase “The regulator’s most recent guidance around capital requirements for mortgages demonstrates concerns that some banks are setting their buffers too low. “So, the PRA has proposed that banks set higher buffers for their mortgage products.” While at first glance this may seem like a sensible decision, Rob went on to warn it could lead to additional raised costs for final consumers. It seems very unfair (I know this is good for affordability) that people who have bought since 2008 often pay a lot more than people who got mortgages then. A friend has a tracker +0.85 for life. She bet that Gordon Brown had screwed the economy up so much that interest rates would drop a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tapori Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 (edited) Edited October 7, 2020 by Tapori Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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