Coronavirus - long term changes in housing type demand?

[A17]

I have been thinking - does anybody else agree that the aftermath of the coronavirus may lead to a long term switch in housing demand as part of lifestyle changes? I can see a marked drop off in demand for inner city apartments, and a rise in people wanting to live in the suburbs, smaller towns or countryside? I am looking towards after the virus has passed, rather than immediate reactions.

• People having been made to stay at home in small apartments (perhaps with a balcony) would want a larger space with a garden. The walls close in a bit more each day. Perhaps the typical young married couple who would have started in a trendy inner city apartment before moving to a house when the kids arrive will want to move to a house earlier. Certainly, I think that anybody who has kids currently in an apartment will want to move.
• Changes in food purchasing. Before the crisis, people in the inner cities may have stopped at a small grocery store several times a week after work, buying only what they could carry by hand on public transport. Now people may see the advantage of having a car, with the ability to do a "big weekly shop". Storage will become more important.
• People will value their personal space more. A rise in car usage? Will people be less comfortable using public transport or rideshares? Especially if the virus prevention measures drift on for some time? A home with a dedicated parking spot will be at an advantage.
• Similarly, will people be happy with communal doors, elevator buttons etc that there are in a large apartment building?
•  Employers may be more accepting of homeworking - especially if the government continues to encourage it. What would you prefer: a small apartment and easy commute five days a week, or a house with a long commute three days a week? If people will be working from home more, they may want a home office (or at least a dedicated desk space) rather than working on the couch.
• Young people more inclined to stay in the family home for longer? I am 32, and I have seen some of my contemporaries return from their inner city apartments and flatshares to the comfortable family home (with garden) for the duration. People may feel more comfortable there in future than a flat-share with four others in London.

 I'd be interested in hearing if anybody else has a similar view or a counter argument. As I said, this would be after the virus has passed, and we have returned to some sort of normality, rather than actions taken right now.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

14 hours ago, A17 said:

I have been thinking - does anybody else agree that the aftermath of the coronavirus may lead to a long term switch in housing demand as part of lifestyle changes? I can see a marked drop off in demand for inner city apartments, and a rise in people wanting to live in the suburbs, smaller towns or countryside? I am looking towards after the virus has passed, rather than immediate reactions.

• People having been made to stay at home in small apartments (perhaps with a balcony) would want a larger space with a garden. The walls close in a bit more each day.
•  Employers may be more accepting of homeworking - especially if the government continues to encourage it. What would you prefer: a small apartment and easy commute five days a week, or a house with a long commute three days a week? If people will be working from home more, they may want a home office (or at least a dedicated desk space) rather than working on the couch.

I have strong view on the positive benefits of homeworking. Obviously it can’t be done in all jobs, but Government should define those where it can’t be done. Any firms that then doesn’t permit homework for eligible employees should then have to pay 3x business rates and and  3x employers NI.

[GregBowman]

15 hours ago, A17 said:

I have been thinking - does anybody else agree that the aftermath of the coronavirus may lead to a long term switch in housing demand as part of lifestyle changes? I can see a marked drop off in demand for inner city apartments, and a rise in people wanting to live in the suburbs, smaller towns or countryside? I am looking towards after the virus has passed, rather than immediate reactions.

• People having been made to stay at home in small apartments (perhaps with a balcony) would want a larger space with a garden. The walls close in a bit more each day. Perhaps the typical young married couple who would have started in a trendy inner city apartment before moving to a house when the kids arrive will want to move to a house earlier. Certainly, I think that anybody who has kids currently in an apartment will want to move.
• Changes in food purchasing. Before the crisis, people in the inner cities may have stopped at a small grocery store several times a week after work, buying only what they could carry by hand on public transport. Now people may see the advantage of having a car, with the ability to do a "big weekly shop". Storage will become more important.
• People will value their personal space more. A rise in car usage? Will people be less comfortable using public transport or rideshares? Especially if the virus prevention measures drift on for some time? A home with a dedicated parking spot will be at an advantage.
• Similarly, will people be happy with communal doors, elevator buttons etc that there are in a large apartment building?
•  Employers may be more accepting of homeworking - especially if the government continues to encourage it. What would you prefer: a small apartment and easy commute five days a week, or a house with a long commute three days a week? If people will be working from home more, they may want a home office (or at least a dedicated desk space) rather than working on the couch.
• Young people more inclined to stay in the family home for longer? I am 32, and I have seen some of my contemporaries return from their inner city apartments and flatshares to the comfortable family home (with garden) for the duration. People may feel more comfortable there in future than a flat-share with four others in London.

 I'd be interested in hearing if anybody else has a similar view or a counter argument. As I said, this would be after the virus has passed, and we have returned to some sort of normality, rather than actions taken right now.

I was thinking the same re your first point. After the war the suburbs grew exponentially In the US ( think back to the future film where he goes back to his area and it’s just starting to be built ) as everyone wanted their own homestead and same in U.K. This made sense to me and whilst did the London thing ( I am a North Londoner ) moved even closer in to Surrey Docks from 24-30 and enjoyed it but thinking about it - it was sparsely populated in the late 80’s early 90’s. But was of a generation that wasn’t trendy we thought we were the yuppies ! always aspired to a house if possible with a garden , drive for the car etc. So moved to South Herts in 96 - close to London but clean lots of green, great transport links. Fantastic environment for our kids when they came along with every youth activity you could imagine from scouts/ guides, swimming/ football / tennis clubs. I had lived in Muswell Hill which was in haringey - had 3 over crowded swimming pools across the whole borough - In my area alone there were 3 that were all rebuilt in the first ten years we lived there.There are 73 swimming pools and leisure centres in Hertfordshire !! Plus Herts Uni and access to the pools of private schools where a lot of the swim clubs were held and comps

Our house is a 20 min pleasant walk to a station  on Oyster which now runs all new trains to Moorgate 45 mins on a slow train

Yesterday went for a cycle, cleaned motorbike on the drive ( didn’t ride just saying ) cooked a couple of steaks on the bbq and looked over to the protected wood at the bottom of our road. Thinking why do all the trendies of whatever age knock suburbia ?

My wife and I are looking at our next move and can’t help thinking that our area ( even though expensive by UK standards ) and nice places by the coast are under valued when compared to shite like this 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-90851459.html

They talk about the culture in London which for most people means getting p**** in trendy new bars - We can be in central London in an hour on Sat night in a car parked on a free single yellow and seeing a show - probably do it more than most Londoners 

But don’t tell anyone it’s nice as it is ...??

Edit : Home working will surely only increase the demand for a bit of space to work in and look out on 

Edited April 6, 2020 by GregBowman

[stop_the_craziness]

The concept of a 2 bedroom flat in a trendy area works just fine when it's pretty much only somewhere that you sleep - the cliché of trendy urbanites never using their own oven is not just a myth.

Under the current circumstances the most "wealth" you can have right now is access to open countryside or a garden.  But that's not going to be the case forever and I'm not sure that people will radically change their opinion on what makes something "desirable" that much.

[GregBowman]

50 minutes ago, stop_the_craziness said:

The concept of a 2 bedroom flat in a trendy area works just fine when it's pretty much only somewhere that you sleep - the cliché of trendy urbanites never using their own oven is not just a myth.

Under the current circumstances the most "wealth" you can have right now is access to open countryside or a garden.  But that's not going to be the case forever and I'm not sure that people will radically change their opinion on what makes something "desirable" that much.

I think the juries out London was a declining city until the mid 80's in terms of population things pivot fast 

[dougless]

3 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I have strong view on the positive benefits of homeworking. Obviously it can’t be done in all jobs, but Government should define those where it can’t be done. Any firms that then doesn’t permit homework for eligible employees should then have to pay 3x business rates and and  3x employers NI.

Good idea and it would relieve pressure on our transport infrastructure as well as reducing our energy consumption as a nation.

[Riedquat]

2 minutes ago, dougless said:

Good idea and it would relieve pressure on our transport infrastructure as well as reducing our energy consumption as a nation.

Yeah, because we all want to be cooped up in the house even more. I find the desire for home working rather strange. What we need are far more local jobs. What we don't need is even more isolation (and I'm a firm believer in keeping work and home firmly separated in any case). I'll put up with it for now under the current circumstances but the idea of it becoming the norm for millions is another bleak vision of the future.

[MARTINX9]

4 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Yeah, because we all want to be cooped up in the house even more. I find the desire for home working rather strange. What we need are far more local jobs. What we don't need is even more isolation (and I'm a firm believer in keeping work and home firmly separated in any case). I'll put up with it for now under the current circumstances but the idea of it becoming the norm for millions is another bleak vision of the future.

The mental health impact of this lockdown for many could last some time.

Not everyone wants to be at home all day every day whether living alone or in a family - everyone needs a break even if just to go to work or while the kids are at school.

[simvastatin]

2 hours ago, GregBowman said:

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-90851459.html

 

I know this block very well, I had a friend living here he was in a 2 bedrooms and nearly purchased for £60k about 20 year ago 

He ended up buying off the harringay green lanes near the ladder

[reddog]

4 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I have strong view on the positive benefits of homeworking. Obviously it can’t be done in all jobs, but Government should define those where it can’t be done. Any firms that then doesn’t permit homework for eligible employees should then have to pay 3x business rates and and  3x employers NI.

I think we also need to get rid of old fashioned managers that hold back home working.

 

A company I used to work for introduced "Smart Working" where you don't have your own desk, and encouraged doing as much home working as you want, basically so they save by having a smaller office than their total number of employees.

 

However this was totally spoilt in my team by our "old school" manager (he was actually a Greek guy that wasn't that old), who insisted we all had to have a very good reason for working from home.  Pretty frustrating (I was a contractor so didn't want to rock the boat by complaining about him)

[Riedquat]

20 minutes ago, reddog said:

A company I used to work for introduced "Smart Working" where you don't have your own desk, and encouraged doing as much home working as you want, basically so they save by having a smaller office than their total number of employees.

Sounds like a grim place to work, choice between completely impersonal in the office or having the office intrude into your house. Wonderful.

[Locke]

20 hours ago, A17 said:

Now people may see the advantage of having a car

No, but perhaps a motorcycle or motorised cart

20 hours ago, A17 said:

"big weekly shop"

Will be online. Expect delivery based businesses to soar.

20 hours ago, A17 said:

Storage will become more important.

For sure. It will be a space for a big chest freezer though.

20 hours ago, A17 said:

Young people more inclined to stay in the family home for longer?

Hopefully. I think families should stay together.

 

The debt based economy is done. Everything debt based will deflate (collapse in value). Real goods and services will spike (~~~inflation)

Supply chains will become local. Interest rates spike. 

[Locke]

1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

the idea of it becoming the norm for millions is another bleak vision of the future.

The arrangement of a workplace away from home is extremely recent.

For 99.99% of human history, your home was your workplace. Your home was on the farm, or you did your knitting or weaving or smithing in the shed and traded your goods in the sitting room.

[longgone]

4 hours ago, GregBowman said:

 

My wife and I are looking at our next move and can’t help thinking that our area ( even though expensive by UK standards ) and nice places by the coast are under valued when compared to shite like this 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-90851459.html

 

million quid for that ?adele has a lot to answer for in tottenham

i agree on the property prices down the coast  east sussex and dorset are pretty good value add in the crash of covid i may be mortgage free very soon.  1 bed for me and 3 or 4 for the cheeky czech`s to stay in. 

now need to find a home near a decent town with a selections of spoons pubs ?

 

[GregBowman]

42 minutes ago, longgone said:

million quid for that ?adele has a lot to answer for in tottenham

i agree on the property prices down the coast  east sussex and dorset are pretty good value add in the crash of covid i may be mortgage free very soon.  1 bed for me and 3 or 4 for the cheeky czech`s to stay in. 

now need to find a home near a decent town with a selections of spoons pubs ?

 

??

I love a man with a plan !!

[A17]

1 hour ago, Locke said:

Will be online. Expect delivery based businesses to soar.

I'm not sure. With respect to food, I've heard lots of stories about people being unable to get deliveries, or having deliveries with many items missing. There is a lot to be said for physically being in the supermarket to ensure that you get food. Are people going to be willing to wait at home for your food delivery later in the week, when you believe that the stores are being stripped now? Will people be happy to go back to relying on food deliveries? Will people still trust takeaway food delivered to your house? 

[Locke]

5 minutes ago, A17 said:

I'm not sure. With respect to food, I've heard lots of stories about people being unable to get deliveries, or having deliveries with many items missing. There is a lot to be said for physically being in the supermarket to ensure that you get food. Are people going to be willing to wait at home for your food delivery later in the week, when you believe that the stores are being stripped now? Will people be happy to go back to relying on food deliveries? Will people still trust takeaway food delivered to your house? 

The system is not set up to cope with it right now, which is exactly why I think the means to deliver things will be properly fleshed out. If it were already set up, there would be no scope for growth.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

21 hours ago, A17 said:

I have been thinking - does anybody else agree that the aftermath of the coronavirus may lead to a long term switch in housing demand as part of lifestyle changes? I can see a marked drop off in demand for inner city apartments, and a rise in people wanting to live in the suburbs, smaller towns or countryside? I am looking towards after the virus has passed, rather than immediate reactions.

• People having been made to stay at home in small apartments (perhaps with a balcony) would want a larger space with a garden. The walls close in a bit more each day. Perhaps the typical young married couple who would have started in a trendy inner city apartment before moving to a house when the kids arrive will want to move to a house earlier. Certainly, I think that anybody who has kids currently in an apartment will want to move.
• Changes in food purchasing. Before the crisis, people in the inner cities may have stopped at a small grocery store several times a week after work, buying only what they could carry by hand on public transport. Now people may see the advantage of having a car, with the ability to do a "big weekly shop". Storage will become more important.
• People will value their personal space more. A rise in car usage? Will people be less comfortable using public transport or rideshares? Especially if the virus prevention measures drift on for some time? A home with a dedicated parking spot will be at an advantage.
• Similarly, will people be happy with communal doors, elevator buttons etc that there are in a large apartment building?
•  Employers may be more accepting of homeworking - especially if the government continues to encourage it. What would you prefer: a small apartment and easy commute five days a week, or a house with a long commute three days a week? If people will be working from home more, they may want a home office (or at least a dedicated desk space) rather than working on the couch.
• Young people more inclined to stay in the family home for longer? I am 32, and I have seen some of my contemporaries return from their inner city apartments and flatshares to the comfortable family home (with garden) for the duration. People may feel more comfortable there in future than a flat-share with four others in London.

 I'd be interested in hearing if anybody else has a similar view or a counter argument. As I said, this would be after the virus has passed, and we have returned to some sort of normality, rather than actions taken right now.

I am sure that the majority of people stuck in inner city appartments would rather have a massive house in the country and big cars.

But a significant proportion don't, because a) there are no jobs for them there and b) they can't afford it.

In many cases it's not a matter of what people want, it's what they can afford.

[frankief]

Nice gesture by a house builder here:

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/04/06/gleeson-to-prioritise-house-sales-to-key-workers-after-crisis/

No mention of prices though.

Edited April 6, 2020 by frankief

[GregBowman]

6 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

I am sure that the majority of people stuck in inner city appartments would rather have a massive house in the country and big cars.

But a significant proportion don't, because a) there are no jobs for them there and b) they can't afford it.

In many cases it's not a matter of what people want, it's what they can afford.

London is quite unique in that there is a bias against Suburbia when in fact its cheaper and offers a better quality of life 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-90825932.html

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-89212517.html

used to walk my dog past the house its in a nice road .8 mile from Cuffley station which is now on Oyster 

I know these are London prices but many of the people cooped up in London could afford these apart from their unfounded dreary suburb meme when in fact the trick is to 'use' London like a theme park

And anyway we have far more dogging... ?

[A17]

16 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

London is quite unique in that there is a bias against Suburbia when in fact its cheaper and offers a better quality of life 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-90825932.html

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-89212517.html

used to walk my dog past the house its in a nice road .8 mile from Cuffley station which is now on Oyster 

I know these are London prices but many of the people cooped up in London could afford these apart from their unfounded dreary suburb meme when in fact the trick is to 'use' London like a theme park

And anyway we have far more dogging... ?

Agreed. I have friends with kids crammed into small London homes when for the same money they could have a nice big house in the suburbs, which would have a similar commute time (suburban rail vs London underground). When I suggested the suburbs, they didn't want to leave "London", despite not being able to do any of the fun stuff regularly due to them having kids.

[GregBowman]

3 minutes ago, A17 said:

Agreed. I have friends with kids crammed into small London homes when for the same money they could have a nice big house in the suburbs, which would have a similar commute time (suburban rail vs London underground). When I suggested the suburbs, they didn't want to leave "London", despite not being able to do any of the fun stuff regularly due to them having kids.

I think a lot of people will re examine their priorities after this and with less 5 day a week commutes anywhere Oyster connected will be in demand since it lowers dramatically the cost of travel for 2-3 day a week commuters typically by a third or more over the previous rail fares plus travelcard

[winkie]

22 hours ago, A17 said:

I have been thinking - does anybody else agree that the aftermath of the coronavirus may lead to a long term switch in housing demand as part of lifestyle changes? I can see a marked drop off in demand for inner city apartments, and a rise in people wanting to live in the suburbs, smaller towns or countryside? I am looking towards after the virus has passed, rather than immediate reactions.

• People having been made to stay at home in small apartments (perhaps with a balcony) would want a larger space with a garden. The walls close in a bit more each day. Perhaps the typical young married couple who would have started in a trendy inner city apartment before moving to a house when the kids arrive will want to move to a house earlier. Certainly, I think that anybody who has kids currently in an apartment will want to move.
• Changes in food purchasing. Before the crisis, people in the inner cities may have stopped at a small grocery store several times a week after work, buying only what they could carry by hand on public transport. Now people may see the advantage of having a car, with the ability to do a "big weekly shop". Storage will become more important.
• People will value their personal space more. A rise in car usage? Will people be less comfortable using public transport or rideshares? Especially if the virus prevention measures drift on for some time? A home with a dedicated parking spot will be at an advantage.
• Similarly, will people be happy with communal doors, elevator buttons etc that there are in a large apartment building?
•  Employers may be more accepting of homeworking - especially if the government continues to encourage it. What would you prefer: a small apartment and easy commute five days a week, or a house with a long commute three days a week? If people will be working from home more, they may want a home office (or at least a dedicated desk space) rather than working on the couch.
• Young people more inclined to stay in the family home for longer? I am 32, and I have seen some of my contemporaries return from their inner city apartments and flatshares to the comfortable family home (with garden) for the duration. People may feel more comfortable there in future than a flat-share with four others in London.

 I'd be interested in hearing if anybody else has a similar view or a counter argument. As I said, this would be after the virus has passed, and we have returned to some sort of normality, rather than actions taken right now.

The wealthy will have both a pad in the City and a bolthole in the country.....many at this time will be riding it out in their country pad.

Improved broadband means so many more can now work from anywhere even overseas, very many more now spend part of the week or month in London or big city....the family live and kids go to school in less high density area..... many boarding schools are in more rural areas all around the country.

The United Kingdom is only small when compared to other much larger countries with greater land mass.....therefore it only takes a few hours at most to travel to a main city, nobody is that far away from each other.....sometimes a particular place may look like nothing goes on, but there is plenty going on all around the country.....no place is boring, people see to it that there is life and entertainment everywhere.....all is not what you see, just might not see it.

[MARTINX9]

4 hours ago, frankief said:

Nice gesture by a house builder here:

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/04/06/gleeson-to-prioritise-house-sales-to-key-workers-after-crisis/

No mention of prices though.

Exactly - will nurses on £30k or care assistants on £15k be able to afford them - before the investors get their chance?

If it was social rented homes at affordable levels perhaps it might be more help.

[MARTINX9]

4 hours ago, GregBowman said:

London is quite unique in that there is a bias against Suburbia when in fact its cheaper and offers a better quality of life 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-90825932.html

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-89212517.html

used to walk my dog past the house its in a nice road .8 mile from Cuffley station which is now on Oyster 

I know these are London prices but many of the people cooped up in London could afford these apart from their unfounded dreary suburb meme when in fact the trick is to 'use' London like a theme park

And anyway we have far more dogging... ?

You would still need to earn four times a typical nurses salary in London to get a four times salary mortgage to buy either property along with a £50k deposit on top.

Assuming of course they will still be listed for £460k in a few months!

Edited April 6, 2020 by MARTINX9