Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[vadst43]

@Chunketh - your Mt Everest curve is around 30 deaths/million🤣

[captainb]

4 minutes ago, vadst43 said:

@Chunketh - your Mt Everest curve is around 30 deaths/million🤣

It's daily deaths per million

Or to make it easier if Hungarys population was 10m people at the peak 300 people a day would be passing.

UK would be 70m * 30 which would be 2,100 deaths a day. Which isn't great.

Edited July 31, 2021 by captainb
Edited as wasn't quite sure what op was asking

[Ah-so]

3 hours ago, captainb said:

It's daily deaths per million

Or to make it easier if Hungarys population was 10m people at the peak 300 people a day would be passing.

UK would be 70m * 30 which would be 2,100 deaths a day. Which isn't great.

Exactly. And 2100 deaths a day is about how many people die in the UK normally, so would constitute a doubling of the normal mortality rate. I presume this would be approximately the same in Hungary. 

As I've noted before, anti-vaxxers often can't do statistics. 

[Ah-so]

5 hours ago, captainb said:

It's not just that.. it's the cutting of the timeframes.

Ever wonder why he cuts Hungary at April.. take a look yourself.

 

 

To give him the benefit of the doubt, I will presume that he reposted something from a few months ago rather than deliberately cut off months. However he must have known that as vaccination rates have continued on to rise, deaths have fallen significantly, so reposting this still seems disingenuos. 

Although if he reposts those graphs up to the current day, we can make a better assessment of the data. 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

Boots on streets in Australia. This is how you deal with the anti-mask covid deniers. 
 

Australia sends in the ARMY to enforce it's 'Zero Covid' lockdown: Soldiers will patrol Sydney alongside helicopters with blaring sirens as nation grapples rising infection rates with only 17% of adults vaccinated

[captainb]

39 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

To give him the benefit of the doubt, I will presume that he reposted something from a few months ago rather than deliberately cut off months. However he must have known that as vaccination rates have continued on to rise, deaths have fallen significantly, so reposting this still seems disingenuos. 

Although if he reposts those graphs up to the current day, we can make a better assessment of the data. 

Nah they were all deliberate and different cuts... Wonder why...

[Bruce Banner]

To authoritarian fanboys, "boots on the street" is a triumph of brute force over freedom of choice.

To others, me included, the mere suggestion of "boots on the street" is enough to make us lose the will to live.... seriously!

The government, via the NHS medical records, has full knowledge of the vaccination status of all UK residents so refusal of vaccination is in effect a direct vote against the government, which is why they are so obsessed with the numbers. Yesterday they were trying to convince pregnant women to get jabbed . 

[Ah-so]

40 minutes ago, captainb said:

Nah they were all deliberate and different cuts... Wonder why...

If you're sure they were deliberately cut (am not familiar enough with that website to tell), it's just a classic move from the disinformation handbook. 

Of course it is legitimate to question correlation/causation under certain datasets, but I'm this case, to remove data that erradicates any doubt about the link would be clearly deliberately misleading. 

I would just ask @Arpeggio to clarify whether he was deliberately using old data to mislead and not show the fall in infections. 

[Arpeggio]

5 hours ago, Chunketh said:

Oh yeah…..sorry about that, fixed here…same picture

On Feb the 5th 2021 I said C19 deaths would go up in March 2021 and in March 2021, in many parts of the world, they went up.

In April, the CDC issued new guidance to laboratories recommending reducing the PCR to 28 cycles, only for those fully vaccinated being tested for COVID.

As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause.

Following is a more blatant example of goal posts changing. Currently:

"For the purpose of this surveillance, a vaccine breakthrough infection is defined as the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA or antigen in a respiratory specimen collected from a person ≥14 days after they have completed all recommended doses of a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-authorized COVID-19 vaccine."

This article dated 08.02.2021 states that there was an outbreak in which all residents had been fully vaccinated on the 25th January. Did they all die on the same day 14 days later, also the same day as the report, which was hastily written and published on that same day?

Here's another one of the same with a 13 day difference.

So according to current CDC guidelines, the above were not actually COVID outbreaks. A bunch of people just happened to die.

Moving onto deaths after vaccination per se. Taking CDC / VAERS as an example, a third of reported deaths are within 48 hours of vaccination.

Shortly after April vaccination uptake in Hungary started to peter out.

The other 2/3rds will be within 2 weeks and over. If you want to look at longer short term time frame of 28 days: 5,522 people have died within 28 days of having a Covid-19 Vaccine in Scotland according to Public Health Scotland

 

1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

To give him the benefit of the doubt, I will presume that he reposted something from a few months ago rather than deliberately cut off months.

Correct. On my Feb 5th prediction I wasn't including the caveat on the potential of the definition of C19 changing among the vaccinated.

Neither post vaccination deaths beyond the short term, which, if many in the short term, would therefore give the appearance of C19 declining, although of course this would be dependant on the definition of C19 being consistent; The definition of C19 being consistent for the vaccinated to be the same definition from 2020, is a pipe dream.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Arpeggio]

2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

To authoritarian fanboys, "boots on the street" is a triumph of brute force over freedom of choice.

To others, me included, the mere suggestion of "boots on the street" is enough to make us lose the will to live.... seriously!

The government, via the NHS medical records, has full knowledge of the vaccination status of all UK residents so refusal of vaccination is in effect a direct vote against the government, which is why they are so obsessed with the numbers. Yesterday they were trying to convince pregnant women to get jabbed . 

I am seeing stories of people being pinned down by groups of police / army and jabbed in some parts of the world. Will update as I find.  If this way it is going to go. It may imply that people who have had their 2nd or 3rd shots won't be able to decline their 3rd or 4th shots etc. The yearly booster shots are hardly new news.

Given the 6 month follow-up of Pfizer vaccine, which had 15 deaths in vaccine group 14 in placebo group.

It all seems a splendid idea.

 

2 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Boots on streets in Australia. This is how you deal with the anti-mask covid deniers.

Australia sends in the ARMY to enforce it's 'Zero Covid' lockdown: Soldiers will patrol Sydney alongside helicopters with blaring sirens as nation grapples rising infection rates with only 17% of adults vaccinated

Yup Martial law. I knew you'd like it.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Arpeggio

[pig]

Might have posted this sentiment before but here's some evidence.

My worry was around the government failing to bring the public with it as it brought us out of lockdown generally rather than specifically nightclubs, but anyway:

Quote

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/31/reopened-nightclubs-in-england-face-twilight-zone-as-covid-keeps-customers-away

Clubbers shun reopened venues in England amid confusion over Covid safety

 

 

 

[Arpeggio]

13 year old

Michigan teen’s death days after COVID-19 vaccination being investigated

The good news is that in order to stop C19, we are vaccinating kids in the UK soon, if not already.

It'll be worth it, after 2 years people can have allocated slots of time (pending on measures and variants), in which you can hug granny on an up to date vaccine schedule as per your biometric ID while wearing a mask.

 

The next Covid variant could kill up to one in THREE people: SAGE warns doomsday scenario is 'realistic possibility' and UK's vaccine roll-out may even speed up mutant strain's emergence

[Bruce Banner]

31 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

The next Covid variant could kill up to one in THREE people: SAGE warns doomsday scenario is 'realistic possibility' and UK's vaccine roll-out may even speed up mutant strain's emergence

Which is exactly the sort of thing I've been worried about since the mass vaccination program started. I'm sure I've mentioned my concerns about it a few times on this thread.

Quote

And in a downside of Britain's hugely successful vaccination drive, the team warned the country's greater levels of immunity may help speed up the virus's evolutionary process. 

Rolling out booster vaccines this winter and curbing transmission may help prevent a mutant strain occurring, according to the paper.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Bruce Banner

[Ah-so]

3 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

If you want to look at longer short term time frame of 28 days: 5,522 people have died within 28 days of having a Covid-19 Vaccine in Scotland according to Public Health Scotland

I think you'll also find that about 5,000 people in Scotland also die within 28 days of their birthday. Do birthdays kill?

The population of Scotland is 5.5m, so pretty much 0.1% of the entire population of Scotland has died within 28 days of vaccination. 

However, approximately 58,000 people die in Scotland every year - about one percent of the entire population. It is hardly strange that if that number die a year anyway, then c. a tenth of those will die in a four week period over winter. 

The number you give appears to be entirely consistent with numbers dying as a matter of course over a normal winter. 

But I think this point has been made to you before with regards England. 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Ah-so

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 hour ago, Bruce Banner said:

Which is exactly the sort of thing I've been worried about since the mass vaccination program started. I'm sure I've mentioned my concerns about it a few times on this thread.

This is also my concern with vaccinations. I am not anti vax, but my primary concern with this virus is that people who have next to no immune system are being kept artificially alive and are thus acting as petri dishes for new variants. This is an issue specific to fast mutating viruses, normally nature would destroy the petri dishes, but now nature is being pressured by science.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-may-arise-in-people-with-compromised-immune-systems/

 

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Ah-so]

2 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

13 year old

Michigan teen’s death days after COVID-19 vaccination being investigated

 

I don't have you on ignore like some do for a couple of reasons - one of which is that sometimes you flag useful cases that don't otherwise get reported. 

As a caveat I recognize that children occasionally die of natural illnesses, but it is exceptionally rare in developed countries to have sudden death except for meningitis. Although I don't know for sure the health history of this child. 

- children are not at risk of developing serious health issues from COVID-19.* 

- there can therefore be no medical case for giving them treatment that they do not require. 

- there may be small, but potentially serious adverse reactions to the vaccination.

- Children are unable to legally consent to medical treatment. 

Overall, there does not seem to be sufficient cause to give children the COVID vaccine. 

*The article does state the following however: "Comparatively, there have been 141,865 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in youth 19 years and younger since the start of the pandemic, and at least 16 residents in that age range have died from their illness."

[vadst43]

That's a national leader not a NWO stooge

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Iceland's chief virologist suggesting restrictions could last as long as 15 years in the worst case.

Note I don't speak Icelandic, so there is a Google translation pasted in the quote box.

https://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2021/07/22/segir_takmarkanir_geta_varad_naestu_arin/

Quote

Epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason does not rule out the possibility that restrictions will persist to some extent in the coming years. 

Asked if there is no clear way out of the epidemic, now that measures are being proposed despite vaccinations, and whether we could be on the verge of restrictions over the next five, ten or fifteen years, he says: 

"It can be quite like that, no one can say with certainty what the future will be like. That's what we're always been saying, too, that there's no predictability in this. It is nothing new and many people complain that it is not possible to bring predictability in operations and such, but it is not possible when the virus is unpredictable and something new comes up that changes what you thought a few months ago.

It was stated at a civil defense information meeting earlier today that Þórólfur intends to submit a memorandum to the Minister of Health on domestic measures to stop the spread of the virus.

There Þórólfur said that the coronavirus epidemic will not end in this country until it ends all over the world. He also said that the protection of vaccines against infection was lower, but it was thought that protection against serious illnesses was estimated at 90 percent.

Actions will take effect as soon as possible

Þórólfur believes that the measures he proposes should take effect as soon as possible. "I believe that if people decide on certain actions, then there is nothing left to wait for. Then I think people should make it take effect as soon as possible, "he says.

It was also stated at the information meeting that those who were vaccinated with Janssen will receive another vaccination as well as those who may not have responded well enough to the vaccination. Pfizer vaccine will probably be used and Þórólfur says that there is a sufficient amount of it in the country.

The activity of Janssen and Moderna is unclear

The results of a new study indicate that the Pfizer vaccine has almost 90 percent activity against the virus and the Astra Zeneca vaccine almost 70 percent.

Þórólfur says that similar information is not available about the Janssen and Moderna vaccines. 

"There is less research behind the Janssen and Moderna vaccines. Maybe the reason is that they are just much less used. The research is structured differently, some are structured with placebo and then the vaccine and others are examining the effects of vaccination in society. These are different approaches and therefore the results often differ slightly from country to country.

I think it's safe to say that most of the results suggest that these vaccines are all so fundamentally similar, even though there is only a difference between studies, and the effectiveness against people getting infected is maybe around 60 percent. This means that 40 percent can still be infected.

"The activity against serious illness is maybe about 90 percent, but this only varies and there is also new information coming from Israel that the activity is probably somewhat less than this." 

He says that there is no detailed analysis of the results from Israel, such as how many people were vaccinated or at what age those who became seriously ill were. 

 

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Which is exactly the sort of thing I've been worried about since the mass vaccination program started. I'm sure I've mentioned my concerns about it a few times on this thread.

It's a typical Daily Mail BS story, did you actually read it?    

[Arpeggio]

1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

I think you'll also find that about 5,000 people in Scotland also die within 28 days of their birthday. Do birthdays kill?

If that's true you would have to look at what they did around the time of their birthday, for example alcohol consumption / drugs / getting off with someone while married leading to breakup & depression / a previous affair coming out & your partner leaving you etc.

Then compare this to the death rate in the population at large, while accounting for factors that are unrelated to the birthday, such as underlying health conditions. If, after this, you find that deaths are higher, you could conclude that people are more likely to die within 28 days of their Birthday.

 

1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

The population of Scotland is 5.5m, so pretty much 0.1% of the entire population of Scotland has died within 28 days of vaccination.

Therefore what you are also saying, is that over the 16 - 17 months since the start of the pandemic in March 2020 there have been a total of 10,324 deaths registered in Scotland where the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate.

Pretty much 0.2% of the population, over more than twice the time period of the 5522 deaths within 28 days after injection.

You are missing critical information for the latter, such as the causes of death. The PHS response was for all age groups, whereas one would expect that if it were primary the elderly they would be interested in letting people know the proportion.

This would be as naive as to assume the cause of the decrease in life expectancy over 2020 is even 10% attributable to C19. ⬇️

 

1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

However, approximately 58,000 people die in Scotland every year - about one percent of the entire population. It is hardly strange that if that number die a year anyway, then c. a tenth of those will die in a four week period over winter. 

The number you give appears to be entirely consistent with numbers dying as a matter of course over a normal winter. 

But I think this point has been made to you before with regards England. 

So, about that deadly pandemic.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Arpeggio

[Confusion of VIs]

5 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Iceland's chief virologist suggesting restrictions could last as long as 15 years in the worst case.

Note I don't speak Icelandic, so there is a Google translation pasted in the quote box.

https://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2021/07/22/segir_takmarkanir_geta_varad_naestu_arin/

Another BS story based on scientific coulds and possibles.

You and Bruce, the gullible duo, could be simultaneously hit by meteorites in the next 10 minutes. It's not that likely but impossible to rule out.  

[Arpeggio]

38 minutes ago, Ah-so said:

*The article does state the following however: "Comparatively, there have been 141,865 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in youth 19 years and younger since the start of the pandemic, and at least 16 residents in that age range have died from their illness."

A few 100 under 18s are dead on VAERS reporting system.

Judging by your posts, one thing that must annoy you slightly are the millions of the people reporting deaths and myriad of injuries on these systems when they would have happened anyway.

[Bruce Banner]

45 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It's a typical Daily Mail BS story, did you actually read it?    

I skimmed it and read the quotes attributed to SAGE. Are you saying that the Mail made them up?

 

39 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Another BS story based on scientific coulds and possibles.

You and Bruce, the gullible duo, could be simultaneously hit by meteorites in the next 10 minutes. It's not that likely but impossible to rule out.  

We'll see who was gullible in due course. 

Man against nature, who will win? If it's two jabs a year to stay alive I'd say nature.

Edit: My definition of gullible would be anyone who believes a word that comes out of Downing Street.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Bruce Banner

[scottbeard]

11 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

So, about that deadly pandemic.

5,000 isn’t the total number who died, it’s just the number who died within 28 days of a COVID vaccination in the last 6 months

The comparison to that being normal amount for a 4 month Scottish winter is a red herring.

Overall deaths have been higher than usual due to COVID.  Neither statistic actually proves or disproves that.

Let’s turn it around - imagine if COVID vaccinations were perfectly safe, how many people would you expect to die within 28 days of receiving one, bearing in mind every old person got oneS I have no idea. 5,000 could be about right or way off.  On its own the number proves nothing either way. 

 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

10 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Another BS story based on scientific coulds and possibles.

You and Bruce, the gullible duo, could be simultaneously hit by meteorites in the next 10 minutes. It's not that likely but impossible to rule out.  

I'm not worried about the scientific issues on this one; I have my scientific views, which on the facts are correct, but which are deemed socially unacceptable. My concern is that the view of what is socially acceptable is driving politics and that is pushing to loss of liberty.