ITS OFFICIAL, NO DEAL BREXIT = HPC

[No One]

15 minutes ago, Wayward said:

I sympathise with this view...it is not our fault that TPTB chose to create this bubble...had they not followed this divisive and frankly evil policy then we wouldn't be in a such an extreme position that many are hoping for an economic crisis...they have brought us to this...

 

However be prepared....house prices fall because folk can't afford them not because they can afford them. 

Thank you for your understanding.

I thought, or its commonly thought here, that house prices are a function of money lending limits and credit availability.

[Kosmin]

3 hours ago, localhero1983 said:

I have found those that have a heavy debt burden to service tend to be pro remain ant very anti Brexit.

I think this is very implausible. 

Not many young people (20-35) have mortgages, but those who do have quite big ones because they have just taken them out. However lots of people a bit older (35-55) have big mortgages (some have repaid a lot, but others extending, MEWed, got pay rises and borrowed more, upsized, opted for IO, became an accidental landlord, acquired a BTL). If people were thinking about debt and house prices, reasoning that remain = house prices stay high vs Brexit = crash, the middle age cohorts would lean towards remain. Maybe they do and the age bands used in polling just aren't granular enough. But I think debt and house prices just didn't play a big part in people thinking about Brexit.

It may have been a big deal for a small group of people. But it's poor reasoning to draw conclusions from that.

[Wayward]

1 minute ago, No One said:

Thank you for your understanding.

I thought, or its commonly thought here, that house prices are a function of money lending limits and credit availability.

Yes...so are you confident you will have access to credit?  You might be out of a job like lots of other people and hence the collapse in demand and following fall in prices.

[2rocketman]

Depends how much he is looking to borrow and if he has a deposit of 10 -20% saved up. Obviously the more they fall the less you need to borrow and the bigger your deposit becomes. In some ways the bigger the crash the more attractive you become to the lender. IR will no doubt be higher which will restrict borrowing a little bit that is no bad thing, it should of already happened. 

30 minutes ago, Wayward said:

Yes...so are you confident you will have access to credit?  You might be out of a job like lots of other people and hence the collapse in demand and following fall in prices.

 

[localhero1983]

1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

I think this is very implausible. 

Not many young people (20-35) have mortgages, but those who do have quite big ones because they have just taken them out. However lots of people a bit older (35-55) have big mortgages (some have repaid a lot, but others extending, MEWed, got pay rises and borrowed more, upsized, opted for IO, became an accidental landlord, acquired a BTL). If people were thinking about debt and house prices, reasoning that remain = house prices stay high vs Brexit = crash, the middle age cohorts would lean towards remain. Maybe they do and the age bands used in polling just aren't granular enough. But I think debt and house prices just didn't play a big part in people thinking about Brexit.

It may have been a big deal for a small group of people. But it's poor reasoning to draw conclusions from that.

why are using 20-35 as your sample size. I suppose I am using without previously giving it much thought an age bracket of those between 30-55, maybe some older and who quite often have very leveraged BTL portfolios and who hate Brexit, all of them.

[localhero1983]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46384417

 

Too a lot of people Brexit was about unwanted mass immigration, unwanted I might add before June 2016 and the referendum where Theresa May was going to bring the numbers down regardless of Brexit.

The numbers are still huge, close to a net 1 million entering the UK every three years

[winkie]

Brexit will not stop migration it will just be a different kind of migration.....people have been moving all around the globe ever since man lived on it......nobody moves to a place worse than the place they moved from, lets hope we still remain a place people aspire to move to and contribute to.?

[No One]

1 hour ago, Wayward said:

Yes...so are you confident you will have access to credit?  You might be out of a job like lots of other people and hence the collapse in demand and following fall in prices.

I've positioned myself as best I can to prevent this. There is no guarantee however.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

18 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

Too a lot of people Brexit was about unwanted mass immigration

It was called by the Moron to neutralise the UKIP threat to the Tory vote.  It has shown her to have the Superpower of making the Moron vaguely competent.  Unbelievable stupidity bringing on her own downfall.

[Si1]

2 hours ago, Kosmin said:

I think this is very implausible. 

Not many young people (20-35) have mortgages, but those who do have quite big ones because they have just taken them out. However lots of people a bit older (35-55) have big mortgages (some have repaid a lot, but others extending, MEWed, got pay rises and borrowed more, upsized, opted for IO, became an accidental landlord, acquired a BTL). If people were thinking about debt and house prices, reasoning that remain = house prices stay high vs Brexit = crash, the middle age cohorts would lean towards remain. Maybe they do and the age bands used in polling just aren't granular enough. But I think debt and house prices just didn't play a big part in people thinking about Brexit.

It may have been a big deal for a small group of people. But it's poor reasoning to draw conclusions from that.

I'll be honest from experience those i know who've bought into establishment pressure and gone balls deep into mortgage debt, expecting a long term pay off for it, tend to be rabid remainers. I think it's to do with investing everything they have into the establishment:s narrative, financially and emotionally.

[localhero1983]

5 hours ago, 2rocketman said:

90% of the population don’t even know who Carney is. They just wheel him out to project the doom, which is inevitable anyway it’s just they want to get there way first. Labour government is now highly likely and 15bn of capital taken off the table in yesterday’s stock market suggests it. 

Most average citizens do not fear unemployment because they believe the Europeans will go elsewhere which is probably the case if the exchange rate gets any worse. Creating extra jobs in building, nursing, restaurants, hotels, lorry driving, airports, docks, factory’s, warehouses etc. which will level out any drop in demand and increase rates of pay. 

I’m already seeing estate agents saying house prices will rise after Brexit. What a load of lies that is? They won’t rise under any scenario. They are going to continue to fall regardless but a no deal Brexit could be a beautiful thing for the average worker who has not over stretched themselves and got a deposit in the bank. Higher interest rates for savers. S24 and less demand for crap accommodation will finish off the cowboy landlords.

We are on for 2 things in my opinion. 1. The biggest debt trap ie. these people who bought cardboard  new builds with help to buy, shared etc with so many set aside for social housing for 500k. Then just to put the cherry on the cake bought a 25k Fiat with a £100 deposit and the rest on finance to go on drive. They are going to be absolute toast. 2 a transfer of wealth which is going to be painful for some and bliss for others. The rich won’t care they will get richer they always do. But there credit junkies and the wannabe big time Charlie’s are about to have there pants pulled down! 

2R

I have no doubts in my mind that a lot of people who  bought into the debt fueled property dream of the last 15 years are sh**ing themselves thinking that a hard/ no deal Brexit is going end their little delusional dreams, there are loads of "passionate remainers" who really do not give a toss about the EU, just their pockets

[Maximus Skepticus]

18 hours ago, No One said:

they also say unemployment would rise to 9.8%, if you are in the 90.2% you are going to have cheaper prices

Bring it on...I'm already unemployed....renter scum, saving for a humble abode, 10 years in teh making. 5% interest rates should be a friggin PROMISE... but all people give a sheisse about is freedom of movement....hope it brings down Global finance too.....make my Bitcoin/shinys worth something......dont worry peeps its just the reverse transfer of wealth while we've seen complete greedy ***** speculate mummy and daddys money on the bicks and mortar innit...

Not bitter much lol...Jan 2019 is going to be VERY VERY interresting...

[simvastatin]

5 minutes ago, Maximus Skepticus said:

Bring it on...I'm already unemployed....renter scum, saving for a humble abode, 10 years in teh making. 5% interest rates should be a friggin PROMISE... but all people give a sheisse about is freedom of movement....hope it brings down Global finance too.....make my Bitcoin/shinys worth something......dont worry peeps its just the reverse transfer of wealth while we've seen complete greedy ***** speculate mummy and daddys money on the bicks and mortar innit...

Not bitter much lol...Jan 2019 is going to be VERY VERY interresting...

How long have you been unemployed, I am sure you used to work before 

[Kosmin]

1 hour ago, localhero1983 said:

why are using 20-35 as your sample size. I suppose I am using without previously giving it much thought an age bracket of those between 30-55, maybe some older and who quite often have very leveraged BTL portfolios and who hate Brexit, all of them.

Any age range I chose would have been somewhat arbitrary.

 

2 hours ago, localhero1983 said:

I suppose I am using without previously giving it much thought an age bracket of those between 30-55, maybe some older and who quite often have very leveraged BTL portfolios and who hate Brexit, all of them.

I thought the rate of Brexit support increased at all ages.

e.g. as in the following illustrative figures:

18-20s 30%

30s 40%

40s 50%

50s 60%

60s+ 70%

If people opposed Brexit due to fears about house prices falling and the risk to those with large mortgages, I'd expect either:

1) middle-age or early-middle aged, or Generation X, or younger boomers, to support Brexit in lower numbers than the young. Maybe the support for Brexit would then be highest for the young and the elderly.

2) only an insignificant number of them oppose Brexit.

 

Are the landlords fighting the "tenant tax" as vocal in their support for a second referendum? If not, why not?

[simvastatin]

1 hour ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

It was called by the Moron to neutralise the UKIP threat to the Tory vote.  It has shown her to have the Superpower of making the Moron vaguely competent.  Unbelievable stupidity bringing on her own downfall.

Have you thought of writing for WIZ

[Maximus Skepticus]

41 minutes ago, prozac said:

How long have you been unemployed, I am sure you used to work before 

2008 redundant.......6 years 'self employed'....it truly is amazing what is constituted as self-employed by HMRC.

The dead wood wasnt cleared out at all when it should have been....this time it will, and those companies that used free bond issuance to buy its own shares will be the first to go to teh wall. Not wishing pain on others, but everyone has had plenty of time to see it coming...more fool them otherwise, credit is no excuse to do nothing imo

[simvastatin]

5 minutes ago, Maximus Skepticus said:

2008 redundant.......6 years 'self employed'....it truly is amazing what is constituted as self-employed by HMRC.

The dead wood wasnt cleared out at all when it should have been....this time it will, and those companies that used free bond issuance to buy its own shares will be the first to go to teh wall. Not wishing pain on others, but everyone has had plenty of time to see it coming...more fool them otherwise, credit is no excuse to do nothing imo

Are you IT

[Maximus Skepticus]

Stephen King's? ? Nooo...engineering/ technical....too specialist....major outsourcing meant in-house restructured and contract side won...at diminishing margins...

 

[localhero1983]

1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

Any age range I chose would have been somewhat arbitrary.

 

I thought the rate of Brexit support increased at all ages.

e.g. as in the following illustrative figures:

18-20s 30%

30s 40%

40s 50%

50s 60%

60s+ 70%

If people opposed Brexit due to fears about house prices falling and the risk to those with large mortgages, I'd expect either:

1) middle-age or early-middle aged, or Generation X, or younger boomers, to support Brexit in lower numbers than the young. Maybe the support for Brexit would then be highest for the young and the elderly.

2) only an insignificant number of them oppose Brexit.

 

Are the landlords fighting the "tenant tax" as vocal in their support for a second referendum? If not, why not?

But again

The people I am seeing becoming very loud and vocal about Brexit are the age group I am talking about and that I know personally. I agree with the data out there that says that 18 or 20 year old's are more pro Remain, but I have yet to come across just one that is very loud and vocal about it.

A 20 year old might well think more about the ideology of remaining in the EU, but he won't out yell someone who is about to be clobbered in the pocket.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

2 hours ago, prozac said:

Have you thought of writing for WIZ

If I knew what WIZ was I would probably be insulted.

A more ghastly couple you would have to make-up. The World would be better off without this odious, evil duo.

[MARTINX9]

Most young people want low wages, the right to go and work in nations with 45% youth unemployment and to rent for ever - why on earth would they support a hard Brexit?!

Edited November 29, 2018 by MARTINX9

[pizza]

9 hours ago, 2rocketman said:

I’m already seeing estate agents saying house prices will rise after Brexit. What a load of lies that is? They won’t rise under any scenario. 

I think this is correct - no rise under any scenario.   Hard brexit is quite obviously negative for house prices (and everything else).  In the event of a soft or no brexit, the economy should pick up and rates will rise, which will lower house prices.  

[simvastatin]

2 hours ago, Freezer? Best place for it said:

If I knew what WIZ was I would probably be insulted.

A more ghastly couple you would have to make-up. The World would be better off without this odious, evil duo.

 

[Arpeggio]

The idealogy / rose tinted glasses of the youth siphoned off into faux socialist bubbles to get useless degrees for all.

Even baby boomers where generally more left in their youth when they had less to complain about at the time with free degrees (useful and useless ones) and cheap housing etc.

[Tapori]

11 hours ago, 2rocketman said:

But there credit junkies and the wannabe big time Charlie’s are about to have there pants pulled down! 

2R