They just wont stop....

[Fence]

On 23/11/2017 at 1:26 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Has anyone else had enough ?

Yes. 

I'm taking steps but fear they will be inadequate. 

Alternatively, I shall either be an international modern day Flying Dutchman, a product of doom and a portent of doom, or be sleeping rough on a park bench.

Flying Dutchman is my plan B but is becoming more appealing me mateys.

Err, Flying Dutchman is a simile for a geographical, financial, mental, and regulatory state of affairs.  Gedit!

Edited November 25, 2017 by Fence

[UnconventionalWisdom]

1 hour ago, Venger said:

Well you can't have it both ways.

Anyone in position to buy around here must be earning a big sum.

And if you are so against 'making money for bankers / property developers / and HPI for politicians' - then seems to me one way to resist is not to pay the very high asking prices sought by sellers in this market.

Yes renting has awful drawbacks, but I refuse to be complicit by paying huge sum for a basic house in areas I track.

I don't exist to bail out those who outbid me, if market should ever fall back toward better affordability, no matter what justifications they give about buying.

Two months on HPC well done.  No one is shutting down newcomers.  I just disagree with much of your position.  It's just saying that it's better to buy than it is to rent - if so then own your buying decision as an adult in the market, where no one dragging anyone into buying.   

I resist by enduring renting vs these prices.  Can't do nothing about 'can't stand renting anymore' (although it's often not that at all... just what those with a VI want people to think OF ALL BUYERS, and more often that house prices can't fall / ForeverHPI / Inherited-BOMAD money) couple ( paying £495,000 for semi-detached next-door.   That's their choice.   And often a smiling happy choice even.

I want to read and sort out those who know the most on many different matters, to better understand things - they are not bragging - just contributing best they can.

 

To be fair to you, I do like how you argue. You address points and offer your opinion- needed for a good debate and let's the other person know your position and reasoning. I know I can sound like a contradiction as I personally agree with you that everyone should point blank refuse with the madness of purchasing at these prices. But I know someone with a kid who split up with her boyfriend and despite being capable of paying the rent alone, the landlord wants her to leave as she's a single mother- I get why she wants to buy. 

I think the tide is turning with less people wanting to buy as btlers leave the market. Most first time buyers have given up on buying due to the insanity so the stamp duty won't make much difference. With term fund lending coming to an end and s. 24 bill in the next few months- I think there will be more sellers and price reductions leading to people further questioning whether they should buy. Although I wouldn't be surprise if the tories added more measures to kick the can down the road until Brexit, at which point they can say I told you so when there's a housing crash.

[Pop321]

duplicate

Edited November 25, 2017 by Pop321

[Pop321]

I think one issue is the 'I understand why someone bought' scenarios. Making it sound like prices won't fall.....

I know am absolutely complicit in where we are.....but would not touch this market under ANY scenario. My son is desperate to buy and knows I could support him. He and his wife are hard working (2 kids themselves) and 'deserve' my help....but until this market is right I won't.....and after we have discussed it he wouldn't let me anyway. 

That is because our position is the last 3 years rises are froth and the last 12 years are just fiction. 

A 3 bed semi (from the hip) in my town looks like this: 

1986 - £40k

1990 - £60k

1993 - £45k (all doom and investors bought from the desperate at £30k)

1999 - £60k

2004 - £85k (still probably fair) 

2006/7 - £140k (affordable for some and ok if it was a nice example...but some poor examples also £140k) 

2007/8 - £165k

2010 - £170k 

2013 - £180k 

2015 - £200k

2016 - £225k

2017 - £265k...holy cr4p. 

Examples on this thread quoting 'buying now to protect your family' is economic suicide and to say otherwise is suggesting that £265k is realistic, not a bubble and maybe the HPC crew are just tin foil hat mad. 

I see families buying now....35 years olds being helped by BOMAD and working crazy hours and delaying kids. Sad thing is many are buying new builds @ £300k with a bit of HTB thrown in. Awful boxes 'worth £250k...re comparables and much much less in the real economy. 

Nope...the price is wrong in my area and anyone in my area under any circumstances should not buy. This happened in 1989 and the government will bluster and prop but that will make the decline even heavier. Once sentiment goes...it goes. No one buys once they realise prices are not going up and then there is a realisation they can pay £230k next year, £200k the year after or £180k after that. Particularly if they can really only afford £150k anyway. And then the final point where no one buys and cash investors (not 118'ers) prey on those fears and buy at £100k to £125k whilst others look in bewilderment and fear. I predict in my area big falls, carnage in London first and then a ripple hitting those places which have seen HPI madness. I caveat that I am unsure about towns where you can buy at £20k....if they haven't gone up I guess they probably won't fall. But that's a guess on areas I know little about. 

London will have established real and published falls by start of 2019. The rest of us will follow at end of that year. 

So buy at £265k and justify it to yourselves but expect my son to offer you £150k in 2021....and if it happens no moaning please. Seen it before and will see it again. Just pray it's not me (or one of the cash investors I know) buying from you because then you know you are in trouble.

Pop. 

Edited November 25, 2017 by Pop321
Grab was HTB (typo)

[Greg Bowman]

30 minutes ago, Pop321 said:

 

This happened in 1989 and the government will bluster and prop but that will make the decline even heavier

London will have established real and published falls by start of 2019. The rest of us will follow at end of that year. 

So buy at £265k and justify it to yourselves but expect my son to offer you £150k in 2021....and if it happens no moaning please. Seen it before and will see it again. Just pray it's not me (or one of the cash investors I know) buying from you because then you know you are in trouble.

Pop. 

Interesting post.

a couple of observations from someone who was there in London in 89 - flat in Surrey Quays SE1 or Surrey Docks as it was called then. Bought 88 catastrophic crash bought on by no meddling in market,recession and high interest rates bought for £67k - sold for £65k in 96. So even with a market that properly crashed wasn’t spectacularly out of pocket. As you say seen it and lived it before (not from afar)

London is another world - it really is, I am guessing you don’t live or work there. The inflows of people, money and influence have to be experienced to be believed

falls are happening now will be they catastrophic - unlikely 20% is my guess 

new build s*** boxes have been something to avoid anywhere in the country but a new build s**** box easier to rent if it comes to it with a view of Tower Bridge than Grimsby

Ultra low IO’s priced in for years on fixed rate mortgages without any more meddling still an attractive bet buying rather than renting if you secure a place at around 2007-2010 prices

So your son is going to rent for another 4 years - it’s not great for family life as many on here have commented, it seems imho you have bush whacked him into living a transient life with a young family it seems a little binary as many on here say there is more to life

We are in our second renting spell and even in a decent 3 bed semi in a good area with no kids at home I find it after 3 months a little, soulless and has had an affect on my mood. Your home is your castle is a deeper ingrained emotional need than I think you realise  more so to a young couple.

Its expensive renting our place is £1700 a month, interest on my mortgage before was £600 and it was a McMansion complete with pillars and more marble than The acropolis, alright I had significant equity but broadly speaking if I mortgaged up to 75% would still be less than my rent now

So by all means believe your son will pick up a s*** box for 50% off in 2021, he deserves it he will have put a lot of his young families life on hold for that...

There are starting to be real opportunities to secure places at 2007 prices now, if not in London but the shires and perhaps some parts of London soon. 

You don’t seem like a professional investor but you are advising your son to be one. Not sure long term he will thank you for it

 

 

 

 

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Pop321 said:

I think one issue is the 'I understand why someone bought' scenarios. Making it sound like prices won't fall.....

I know am absolutely complicit in where we are.....but would not touch this market under ANY scenario. My son is desperate to buy and knows I could support him. He and his wife are hard working (2 kids themselves) and 'deserve' my help....but until this market is right I won't.....and after we have discussed it he wouldn't let me anyway. 

That is because our position is the last 3 years rises are froth and the last 12 years are just fiction. 

A 3 bed semi (from the hip) in my town looks like this: 

1986 - £40k

1990 - £60k

1993 - £45k (all doom and investors bought from the desperate at £30k)

1999 - £60k

2004 - £85k (still probably fair) 

2006/7 - £140k (affordable for some and ok if it was a nice example...but some poor examples also £140k) 

2007/8 - £165k

2010 - £170k 

2013 - £180k 

2015 - £200k

2016 - £225k

2017 - £265k...holy cr4p. 

Examples on this thread quoting 'buying now to protect your family' is economic suicide and to say otherwise is suggesting that £265k is realistic, not a bubble and maybe the HPC crew are just tin foil hat mad. 

I see families buying now....35 years olds being helped by BOMAD and working crazy hours and delaying kids. Sad thing is many are buying new builds @ £300k with a bit of HTB thrown in. Awful boxes 'worth £250k...re comparables and much much less in the real economy. 

Nope...the price is wrong in my area and anyone in my area under any circumstances should not buy. This happened in 1989 and the government will bluster and prop but that will make the decline even heavier. Once sentiment goes...it goes. No one buys once they realise prices are not going up and then there is a realisation they can pay £230k next year, £200k the year after or £180k after that. Particularly if they can really only afford £150k anyway. And then the final point where no one buys and cash investors (not 118'ers) prey on those fears and buy at £100k to £125k whilst others look in bewilderment and fear. I predict in my area big falls, carnage in London first and then a ripple hitting those places which have seen HPI madness. I caveat that I am unsure about towns where you can buy at £20k....if they haven't gone up I guess they probably won't fall. But that's a guess on areas I know little about. 

London will have established real and published falls by start of 2019. The rest of us will follow at end of that year. 

So buy at £265k and justify it to yourselves but expect my son to offer you £150k in 2021....and if it happens no moaning please. Seen it before and will see it again. Just pray it's not me (or one of the cash investors I know) buying from you because then you know you are in trouble.

Pop. 

Must say I'm enjoying your posts Pop, could be a bit of the confirmation bias kicking in, but perfectly logical views and based on experience of the bad times. As a 30 something couple with no (means of being able to afford) kids targeting Berkshire for our first and future home, I applaud you for refusing to assist your kids.

Sadly that's a rare trait, many of my colleagues aged 50+ are downsizing in these bubbly areas of the SE, "doing the right thing" giving the remainder to their sons and daughters for a HTB new build house (need a house as already in late 20's/early 30's with a kid on the way), most of which start around the 400k mark. One of my similar aged colleagues received 60k deposit from the wife's parents, bought an old 2 bed terrace for 390k worth 240k just 5 years ago. Bit too small to stay in long term but they may well have to. They're relaxed because the mortgage payments are slightly less than the rent they were paying.

There's also the crossrail mania, the number of heated debates I've had about it, people convinced prices have another 20% to go before it even starts running in Dec 19 on the west side. I'd be daft not to buy now using HTB apparently, being advised to flip in 2020 and pocket the gains...

Edited November 25, 2017 by Barnsey

[rockerboy]

On 23/11/2017 at 1:26 PM, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I'm off soon,  we refuse to be part of this madness any more.  My taxes are being abused, my children have no future here.

Has anyone else had enough ?

I see a long term future where the ability to get on the housing market becomes impossible,  even for a working couple backed by parents.

I see a long term future where our children's children will rent mostly from "housing corporations" which will have shares traded.

I see a long term future that when the children of baby boomers die, their houses will be sold to these tax efficient  "housing corporations"

 

 

 

[rockerboy]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

...many of my colleagues aged 50+ are downsizing in these bubbly areas of the SE, "doing the right thing" giving the remainder to their sons and daughters for a HTB new build house (need a house as already in late 20's/early 30's with a kid on the way),

Over the last 10 years, most of my peer group have done the same, and I intend to help my kids "onto the housing ladder" when the time is right.

For those that can, this is normal now

You could see it as this

- 1940s - No-one could afford/get a mortgage

- 1960s - A single person could buy a house on their own salary

- 1980s - A house had to be bought with couples income

- NOW -  A house has to be bought by couples WITH HELP

- Future - goes back to 1940s

[Fatmanfilms]

1 hour ago, rockerboy said:

Over the last 10 years, most of my peer group have done the same, and I intend to help my kids "onto the housing ladder" when the time is right.

For those that can, this is normal now

You could see it as this

- 1940s - No-one could afford/get a mortgage

- 1960s - A single person could buy a house on their own salary

- 1980s - A house had to be bought with couples income

- NOW -  A house has to be bought by couples WITH HELP

- Future - goes back to 1940s

Property was affordable in the 1980's for a single person, I aged 21 in 1983 bought my first flat in London & sold it 18 months laster for over twice the price. That property would sell for en excess of £800,000 today 

[BoredByTorque]

7 hours ago, Pop321 said:

I think one issue is the 'I understand why someone bought' scenarios. Making it sound like prices won't fall.....

I know am absolutely complicit in where we are.....but would not touch this market under ANY scenario. My son is desperate to buy and knows I could support him. He and his wife are hard working (2 kids themselves) and 'deserve' my help....but until this market is right I won't.....and after we have discussed it he wouldn't let me anyway. 

That is because our position is the last 3 years rises are froth and the last 12 years are just fiction. 

A 3 bed semi (from the hip) in my town looks like this: 

1986 - £40k

1990 - £60k

1993 - £45k (all doom and investors bought from the desperate at £30k)

1999 - £60k

2004 - £85k (still probably fair) 

2006/7 - £140k (affordable for some and ok if it was a nice example...but some poor examples also £140k) 

2007/8 - £165k

2010 - £170k 

2013 - £180k 

2015 - £200k

2016 - £225k

2017 - £265k...holy cr4p. 

Examples on this thread quoting 'buying now to protect your family' is economic suicide and to say otherwise is suggesting that £265k is realistic, not a bubble and maybe the HPC crew are just tin foil hat mad. 

I see families buying now....35 years olds being helped by BOMAD and working crazy hours and delaying kids. Sad thing is many are buying new builds @ £300k with a bit of HTB thrown in. Awful boxes 'worth £250k...re comparables and much much less in the real economy. 

Nope...the price is wrong in my area and anyone in my area under any circumstances should not buy. This happened in 1989 and the government will bluster and prop but that will make the decline even heavier. Once sentiment goes...it goes. No one buys once they realise prices are not going up and then there is a realisation they can pay £230k next year, £200k the year after or £180k after that. Particularly if they can really only afford £150k anyway. And then the final point where no one buys and cash investors (not 118'ers) prey on those fears and buy at £100k to £125k whilst others look in bewilderment and fear. I predict in my area big falls, carnage in London first and then a ripple hitting those places which have seen HPI madness. I caveat that I am unsure about towns where you can buy at £20k....if they haven't gone up I guess they probably won't fall. But that's a guess on areas I know little about. 

London will have established real and published falls by start of 2019. The rest of us will follow at end of that year. 

So buy at £265k and justify it to yourselves but expect my son to offer you £150k in 2021....and if it happens no moaning please. Seen it before and will see it again. Just pray it's not me (or one of the cash investors I know) buying from you because then you know you are in trouble.

Pop. 

So when you buy as an investor it's OK because there's been a HPC but when someone else has bought for security they've made the problem worse ?

It's this that FMRO with some threads here. Lots STR when they thought there would be a big crash 10 years ago and are almost demented now that the government has thrown everything at it.

I said to my OH the other day if we were renting we'd be out of the UK now but I can't face the whole situation at the moment with young kids and people trudging through the house.

But as soon as I can we'll be gone.

 

[Venger]

On 23/11/2017 at 7:48 PM, thewig said:

yeah but, propaganda doesn't exist because it doesn't work, nor does brainwashing because everyone ever has their own mind and is an individual thinker who is completely isolated from any external influences. 

 

etc.

Maybe you need to be Supreme Ruler.

People buying £500,000 or £1m or £2m + houses all just programmed innocents in need of thewig to tell them about reality, as master-of-reality.

Stop tipping into me thewig.

And what's up with all the newbies having digs at the forum.

I see one eager would-be BTLer is back as well.

[Venger]

On 24/11/2017 at 7:49 AM, Houdini said:

+1 and some who think that because they did buy no-one should be sympathetic when this mess finally unfolds... 

Why would I be sympathetic if someone buys at £750,000 and had £600,000 gifted money, if prices turn down.

I'm not sympathetic to houseface2000 recent buy where he expected more HPI and savers to be wiped out - taking his bearings from Wallayat.

All depends on circumstances and if HPC ever happens.

You really are a Trolling Twanger; tipping into me as newbie then telling you had issues with me on your old account.

Forum is getting more and more full of trolls and eager BTLers - eh eek.

[Venger]

6 hours ago, rockerboy said:

I see a long term future where the ability to get on the housing market becomes impossible,  even for a working couple backed by parents.

I see a long term future where our children's children will rent mostly from "housing corporations" which will have shares traded.

I see a long term future that when the children of baby boomers die, their houses will be sold to these tax efficient  "housing corporations"

 

6 hours ago, rockerboy said:

Over the last 10 years, most of my peer group have done the same, and I intend to help my kids "onto the housing ladder" when the time is right.

For those that can, this is normal now

You could see it as this

- 1940s - No-one could afford/get a mortgage

- 1960s - A single person could buy a house on their own salary

- 1980s - A house had to be bought with couples income

- NOW -  A house has to be bought by couples WITH HELP

- Future - goes back to 1940s

See eek; many people don't fear any HPC to come.

Get in there and buy buy buy, according to them.  ForeverHPI+++++++++++++++

[Venger]

3 posts and ForeverHPI++++++++++++++++

[Houdini]

6 hours ago, rockerboy said:

Over the last 10 years, most of my peer group have done the same, and I intend to help my kids "onto the housing ladder" when the time is right.

For those that can, this is normal now

You could see it as this

- 1940s - No-one could afford/get a mortgage

- 1960s - A single person could buy a house on their own salary

- 1980s - A house had to be bought with couples income

- NOW -  A house has to be bought by couples WITH HELP

- Future - goes back to 1940s

I would go and read http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/230095-deflationary-collapse-and-the-reflation-cycle-to-come/ and then decide where we are in the circle. I suspect on the timescale above - (which I don't think is right) we are in 1955-7 and at some point in the near future the 1960's will be returning albeit people will be buying a house to live in and the idea of buying a house will be as unpopular as it was in 1991-3... 

 

Edited November 25, 2017 by Houdini

[thewig]

3 hours ago, Venger said:

Maybe you need to be Supreme Ruler.

People buying £500,000 or £1m or £2m + houses all just programmed innocents in need of thewig to tell them about reality, as master-of-reality.

Stop tipping into me thewig.

And what's up with all the newbies having digs at the forum.

I see one eager would-be BTLer is back as well.

 

you're not the boss of me! I won't be told what to do by a cut and paste bot that's just broken its programming

 

I've never said anybody was a programmed innocent, do you even check what you are typing?

 

from what I can tell you're the only poster on here chucking around accusations of "superiority" or whatever, tipping into anyone who makes the mistake of typing anything on your list of trigger words. 

 

 

 

[deadasadodo]

13 hours ago, Pop321 said:

1986 - £40k

1990 - £60k

1993 - £45k (all doom and investors bought from the desperate at £30k)

1999 - £60k

2004 - £85k (still probably fair) 

2006/7 - £140k (affordable for some and ok if it was a nice example...but some poor examples also £140k) 

2007/8 - £165k

2010 - £170k 

2013 - £180k 

2015 - £200k

2016 - £225k

2017 - £265k...holy cr4p.

Prices like this are pretty much exponential growth (with a few drops thrown in), and anyone with a brain can see that prices can't move exponentially away from incomes for long. This of course doesn't stop estate agents armed with a spreadsheet from predicting the average house will be worth £x million in 10 years time, and the Daily Mail from publishing their results. The really sad thing though is that £265k for a 3 bed sounds really cheap in much of the south.

[Venger]

1 hour ago, thewig said:

you're not the boss of me! I won't be told what to do by a cut and paste bot that's just broken its programming

I've never said anybody was a programmed innocent, do you even check what you are typing?

from what I can tell you're the only poster on here chucking around accusations of "superiority" or whatever, tipping into anyone who makes the mistake of typing anything on your list of trigger words. 

And you're not the boss of others with your view that everyone is programmed (when they buy houses / buy car / do anything in life) with no ability to balance risks and make market choices, and you've somehow broken free of your programming.   Obscuring major issues with 'programmed to buy a house'.  

That is the superiority I push back against - those looking down at other people as non-thinking lumps of meat.  

You don't post repeatedly about people being programmed?!   Yes you do !!!!   And with claim of 'programming' (about any life matter inc buying a house at whatever price without knowing anything about the individual) comes the conclusion you don't think they have responsibility for their market choices (as in innocent of their choices in buying houses/owning houses/taking on debt).

Just a few examples in the last few days...

On 23/11/2017 at 8:07 PM, thewig said:

... I guess when you do everything you are programmed to do from school

On 11/11/2017 at 1:37 PM, thewig said:

I have zero sympathy for the late entrants to the DEBTponzi. Or any entrants for that matter. They are all just doing what they are supposed to do, and have been programmed to do since birth ie be a proper grown up by taking on a big DEBT. But I have zero sympathy for them and they deserve to take their losses of paper equity on the chin. The equity was only ever a matter of opinion anyway, the DEBT is whats real.

zero sympathy from me for those who outbid my family more and more at higher and higher prices, their choice, but they are just doing what they are supposed to do, I can acknowledge most people have been programmed to follow a certain template in 'life' without wanting them to be bailed out. Zero sympathy from me. HPC.

We are so easily programmed its unreal. Obviously not all otherwise a site like this wouldn't exist as we'd all be taking on DEBT for a cr@ppy newbuild to become a complete person like we're supposed to do. 

But by acknowledging that mass scale brainwashing and programming exists, does not mean I think it is a reason to bail people out, or protect those who have outbid my family. HPC.

On 09/11/2017 at 7:55 AM, thewig said:

@venger you always conflate acknowledgement with endorsement on here, all the time

just because I can see something happening it doesn’t mean I agree with it 

people signing up to DEBT are doing what the system programs us all to do. Many of them won’t understand what they are signing up for, they’re just doing it because that’s just what you do innit bruv

I think they should have read the small print and I think they should be liable for ever penny of DEBT they signed up for. 

But i can still acknowledge they are just acting out per their programming, same way we’re all supposed to. No victim squad save the innocents from me. But I can still see the bigger picture at play without agreeing with it myself

It's just people with a different view.  HPIers and BTLers have won for many years, as the dominant force.

Quote

There are deep questions here about agency and responsibility. It seems to me that the saying that eternal vigilance is the price of liberty has relevance here. We can imagine ourselves first and foremost as sheeple, prey to advertising and salesmen who have the ability to fit us up with a reality of their choosing or we can imagine ourselves as a free people actively engaged in constructing reality.

Of course they understand what they are signing up for when taking on debt/mortgage.  It's a new car or to buy a home.  If they are in position to buy it's on them.

They don't need YOU to check their numbers/tell them 'reality' and whether they can proceed or not. 

Of course there are culture wide assumptions that can be damaging/selfish and not fully thought through - but within it we have full range of abilities as adults to make individual market choices against risks such as whether a house is worth £300,0000 or whether an FTB is priced out and has to remain renting.  Whether to accept £150,000 bomad to use in buying it.  Whether older owner should come to market to downsize on house now worth £750,0000 having bought it for £40,000 back in the day - some there expect even more HPI.   

Everyone has their own individual identity and outlook (and freewill for market choices) even if there is some general culture wide programming (as you insist on - but not to level you put it at... everyone has freewill to way up old car vs brand new £40,000 PCP top car... and decide what is best for them.).    A market still exists.  Not all buyers of houses are just 'following their programming'.  Their position/incomes/market-view/expectations come into it.  I nearly bought a house last year.. not 'programmed' and no need for superior sympathy from anyone (not that I would get it lol - from eek/you - that's reserved for anyone else who buys a house without knowledge of their circumstances it seems.)

Quote

In effect, the paradigm or worldview that accompanies a culture is like a software program. It enables people to process information by suggesting an underlying pattern of reality in which information fits together.    What matters most in "making sense" of life is the underlying pattern of reality that people believe exists.   All paradigms are incomplete.   What seems to "make sense" may actually be a delusion arising from a "blind spot" or defect in the local paradigm of understanding.  In everyday speech, "chaos" means "utter confusion" and "disorder." The mathematics of chaos reveals hidden order by examining apparent disorder at a higher level of abstraction.  Much time and trouble stands between us and the day when these emerging mathematical insights will inform a new intuition of "common sense," as second nature as the old patterns of perception. Meanwhile, it is important to understand the deficiencies of "common sense" at all times and places, and realise how our perceptions of reality can be distorted by prevailing systems of thought.  In ways that are never obvious, what "makes sense" to you is a function of the paradigm that is an unconscious part of your understanding.

 

As for the sympathy for homeowners eek, there's one 2010 London buyer here who claims he wants a HPC so he can upsize... his home gone from £200,000 to over £500,000 since 2010, and he wants to get out of a 2-bed to upsize to a larger home for his family.

He wants prices to fall as a homeowner - yet those who guilt trip that falling prices means must have sympathy....

Blanket sympathy is stupid, although so is my discussing it with someone who doesn't use his old account (hello eek - it old account still working for you or not?), and tipped in with me from nowhere with a new account as a pretend newbie innocent, without revealing grudges from old account.   Still looking at buying a BTL?

Edited November 25, 2017 by Venger

[thewig]

Just now, Venger said:

And you're not the boss of others with your view that everyone is programmed (when they buy houses / buy car / do anything in life) with no ability to balance risks and make market choices, and you've somehow broken free of your programming.   Obscuring major issues with 'programmed to buy a house'.  

That is the superiority I push back against - those looking down at other people as non-thinking lumps of meat.  

You don't post repeatedly about people being programmed?!   Yes you do !!!!   And with claim of 'programming' (about any life matter inc buying a house at whatever price without knowing anything about the individual) comes the conclusion you don't think they have responsibility for their market choices (as in innocent of their choices in buying houses/owning houses/taking on debt).

Just a few examples in the last few days...

 

It's just people with a different view.  HPIers and BTLers have won for many years, as the dominant force.

Of course they understand what they are signing up for when taking on debt/mortgage.  It's a new car or to buy a home.  If they are in position to buy it's on them.

They don't need YOU to check their numbers/tell them 'reality' and whether they can proceed or not. 

Of course there are culture wide assumptions that can be damaging/selfish and not fully thought through - but within it we have full range of abilities as adults to make individual market choices against risks such as whether a house is worth £300,0000 or whether an FTB is priced out and has to remain renting.  Whether to accept £150,000 bomad to use in buying it.  Whether older owner should come to market to downsize on house now worth £750,0000 having bought it for £40,000 back in the day - some there expect even more HPI.   

Everyone has their own individual identity and outlook (and freewill for market choices) even if there is some general culture wide programming (as you insist on - but not to level you put it at... everyone has freewill to way up old car vs brand new £40,000 PCP top car... and decide what is best for them.).    A market still exists.  Not all buyers of houses are just 'following their programming'.  Their position/incomes/market-view/expectations come into it.  I nearly bought a house last year.. not 'programmed' and no need for superior sympathy from anyone (not that I would get it lol - from eek/you - that's reserved for anyone else who buys a house without knowledge of their circumstances it seems.)

 

As for the sympathy for homeowners eek, there's one 2010 London buyer here who claims he wants a HPC so he can upsize... his home gone from £200,000 to over £500,000 since 2010, and he wants to get out of a 2-bed to upsize to a larger home for his family.

Blanket sympathy is stupid, although so is my discussing it with someone who doesn't use his old account (hello eek - it old account still working for you or not?), and tipped in with me from nowhere with a new account as a pretend newbie innocent, without revealing grudges from old account.   Still looking at buying a BTL?

 

We are all programmed from birth, and on a daily basis. What makes you so special that you are above programming? seems a bit of a superior viewpoint to me but maybe I'm projecting.

 

You simply don't read what people type on here, you see one word on your trigger list and, you get triggered. Then you go and post a load of cut and paste and bold which I scroll past.

 

I have never called anyone a programmed innocent. Stop misquoting people. You do it all the time on here. Makes me think you are a troll or a bot of some sort.

[thewig]

 

Saturday night and I'm on the internet explaining myself to a bot with a superiority complex ffs  I'm out.

[Pop321]

Duplicate

Edited November 26, 2017 by Pop321
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[Pop321]

15 hours ago, Greg Bowman said:

Interesting post.

a couple of observations from someone who was there in London in 89 - flat in Surrey Quays SE1 or Surrey Docks as it was called then. Bought 88 catastrophic crash bought on by no meddling in market,recession and high interest rates bought for £67k - sold for £65k in 96. So even with a market that properly crashed wasn’t spectacularly out of pocket. As you say seen it and lived it before (not from afar)

London is another world - it really is, I am guessing you don’t live or work there. The inflows of people, money and influence have to be experienced to be believed

falls are happening now will be they catastrophic - unlikely 20% is my guess 

new build s*** boxes have been something to avoid anywhere in the country but a new build s**** box easier to rent if it comes to it with a view of Tower Bridge than Grimsby

Ultra low IO’s priced in for years on fixed rate mortgages without any more meddling still an attractive bet buying rather than renting if you secure a place at around 2007-2010 prices

So your son is going to rent for another 4 years - it’s not great for family life as many on here have commented, it seems imho you have bush whacked him into living a transient life with a young family it seems a little binary as many on here say there is more to life

We are in our second renting spell and even in a decent 3 bed semi in a good area with no kids at home I find it after 3 months a little, soulless and has had an affect on my mood. Your home is your castle is a deeper ingrained emotional need than I think you realise  more so to a young couple.

Its expensive renting our place is £1700 a month, interest on my mortgage before was £600 and it was a McMansion complete with pillars and more marble than The acropolis, alright I had significant equity but broadly speaking if I mortgaged up to 75% would still be less than my rent now

So by all means believe your son will pick up a s*** box for 50% off in 2021, he deserves it he will have put a lot of his young families life on hold for that...

There are starting to be real opportunities to secure places at 2007 prices now, if not in London but the shires and perhaps some parts of London soon. 

You don’t seem like a professional investor but you are advising your son to be one. Not sure long term he will thank you for it

 

 

 

 

I am (or I was)....and not advising my son to act like one....just telling him he can't use my money to buy. So he 'is out of this market and renting' because all he can afford £110k is his own right. If he wants to buy in another area,  a mobile home or a 300 sq ft flat then he can. Not ideal for 2 kids, him and his wife.....maybe they should move to London where the streets are paved with gold. I imagine and auxiliary nurse and a prison officer will be able to reap the rewards of the London allowances and buy something nice in Islington for £150k  instead of £110k up here. 

Agree London is different but it's been exponentially increasing for too long. Don't let 'relative bargains' or 'comparisons to 2007' blur reality.

The 1996 example you quote not dissimilar to my trend.....yes they recovered but were underpinned  by fundamentals. And there were very interesting years in between. I sold in 1989 and bought in 1992/3 and that little exit from a bubble market saved me 15 years of working as I retire next year at 50 (and I nearly retired at 40 but didnt think it set a great example) Primarily in that position due to that key event in 1989 to 1993 and some lucky timing on my part. Let's not pretend 1989 was easy...I am sure some were on the receiving end and needed to sell in 1993.

[Venger]

6 hours ago, thewig said:

We are all programmed from birth, and on a daily basis. What makes you so special that you are above programming? seems a bit of a superior viewpoint to me but maybe I'm projecting.

You simply don't read what people type on here, you see one word on your trigger list and, you get triggered. Then you go and post a load of cut and paste and bold which I scroll past.

I have never called anyone a programmed innocent. Stop misquoting people. You do it all the time on here. Makes me think you are a troll or a bot of some sort.

6 hours ago, thewig said:

Saturday night and I'm on the internet explaining myself to a bot with a superiority complex ffs  I'm out.

Errrr... belief that we are not just 'mindless animals' - that the majority of adults are capable of reasoned thought, have different risk outlooks, and as individuals have at least some control of our own destinies.   That our thoughts and actions count and matter.

You have a very dim view of other people and I totally reject your position that people are just following 'programming' when they buy houses.

Many of us want to own a home, however some people in position and willing to pay far more than others.  Others not tempted to sell.  Millions of different market outlooks.

I am hardly misquoting you in just highlighting some of your own posts of the last few days about your favourite subject, 'programming'  - buyers understand they're getting something for the debt they are taking on (that it's not just a load of free money to never repay).

So when (can't recall his name) on this thread bought in 2010 at £200,000 edge of London, he didn't know what he was doing?  Just following his programming?  Value now £500,000 and he wants HPC so can upsize to bigger home.   Was Greg following programming after STR then buying again in 2011, from someone who had to sell at lower price.  The seller ran into trouble and Greg bought at much lower price.  Greg knew what he was doing.  He had control.  Nothing 'programmed' about it.  

Quote

 

thewig:  people signing up to DEBT are doing what the system programs us all to do. Many of them won’t understand what they are signing up for, they’re just doing it because that’s just what you do innit bruv

I think they should have read the small print 

 

We've been it time over but now you just dig and laugh on that you don't read my position anyway - so what's the point.  Keep holding such a dim view of other people as all programmed and unable to analyse basic issues in planning their lives - sort of drags it down to the very lowest level for me.  It may be true many love HPI, but it's not the entire story.   This forum has some minds that are fully against housing financialisation (priced out / unwilling to pay these prices).  They're not 'programmed to rent' from BTLers, but just unwilling or unable to pay these prices for homeownership / don't have the reality they would prefer of German style renting options and security of tenure.   

Although from you all I get is that buyers are programmed to buy (absolutely no choice in their decision at all !!!).   We're done thewig.  You continue to think I'm in wrong with my view that adults have some control of their market choices vs your programming.  Don't keep pushing it with me because your BBC view and WTC and NASA and Flat Earth views all wind me up as well.

[Fence]

 

9 hours ago, deadasadodo said:

Prices like this are pretty much exponential growth (with a few drops thrown in), and anyone with a brain can see that prices can't move exponentially away from incomes for long. This of course doesn't stop estate agents armed with a spreadsheet from predicting the average house will be worth £x million in 10 years time, and the Daily Mail from publishing their results. The really sad thing though is that £265k for a 3 bed sounds really cheap in much of the south.

Quite right about regional variability.  We can choose a region, or indeed specific property, to prove any point we like.

What interests me is the real value of £265k after 30 odd years of inflation, even at fudged lower rates.  The HL calculator says £40k in 1980 would now need to be £156k just to allow for inflation.

Also it, to me, highlights the variability of wage growth which is about economic mismanagement, political corruption, and global factors.  This chart should be more upsetting to all generations but especially the young.

Furthermore it would be interesting to compare it with 30 odd years of investment gains, isolating any risk premium for holding such a leveraged and illiquid asset.  Such an analysis would also highlight the peversity of the regulatory and tax systems and the likely way to fix things.

This chart (not adjusted for inflation so a bit flattering) shows the deregulated 1980s and 1990s followed by stagnation (plus the questionable use of R bar squared, although valid in this analysis).  That's almost a 600% gain.  That £40k would be worth about £240k today.

Additionally, the gain, BTL excluded, is on something you need so not totally a typical asset or indeed even an investment.  Especially as some analysis showed downsizing to be a fallacy for most.  A bottle of water in a desert may be worth £400bn but you still need to drink it.  Fools gold.

Talking of gold, it would also be interesting to look at the relative performance of the base unit of measure - the pound, against say USD (38% fall).

All in, that £250k or so gain not looking that great. Sure, uncle blah blah made blah blah.  But then my auntie poo poo made poo poo.  Need to look at averages or regions.  Not to say we don't have an affordability problem though.

This is not all about rampant HPI and intergenerational strife like some seem to suggest in some form of tabloid headline manner.  HPI, both perceived and real, is a yardstick to identify equally (more?) worrying forces at work.

There you have it - the big con.

Edited November 26, 2017 by Fence

[Pop321]

22 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Must say I'm enjoying your posts Pop, could be a bit of the confirmation bias kicking in, but perfectly logical views and based on experience of the bad times. As a 30 something couple with no (means of being able to afford) kids targeting Berkshire for our first and future home, I applaud you for refusing to assist your kids.

Sadly that's a rare trait, many of my colleagues aged 50+ are downsizing in these bubbly areas of the SE, "doing the right thing" giving the remainder to their sons and daughters for a HTB new build house (need a house as already in late 20's/early 30's with a kid on the way), most of which start around the 400k mark. One of my similar aged colleagues received 60k deposit from the wife's parents, bought an old 2 bed terrace for 390k worth 240k just 5 years ago. Bit too small to stay in long term but they may well have to. They're relaxed because the mortgage payments are slightly less than the rent they were paying.

There's also the crossrail mania, the number of heated debates I've had about it, people convinced prices have another 20% to go before it even starts running in Dec 19 on the west side. I'd be daft not to buy now using HTB apparently, being advised to flip in 2020 and pocket the gains...

It's not easy....this town is full of 18 year olds driving BMWs (not new but they save £6k because it was 9 months old FFS) . The kids are working in zombie shops supported by BOMAD. And that's okay if BOMAD can truly afford to support a child's lifestyle forever but most of them can't....just seem to be teaching their kids how to spend and not how to earn and save. 

This is is wide generalisation though....with some great exceptions whose parents and kids are truly inspirational young adults (not sure of cause and effect) but make me mindful of being too general. 

15 hours ago, BoredByTorque said:

So when you buy as an investor it's OK because there's been a HPC but when someone else has bought for security they've made the problem worse ?

It's this that FMRO with some threads here. Lots STR when they thought there would be a big crash 10 years ago and are almost demented now that the government has thrown everything at it.

I said to my OH the other day if we were renting we'd be out of the UK now but I can't face the whole situation at the moment with young kids and people trudging through the house.

But as soon as I can we'll be gone.

 

No I didn't say that. At these prices it's not ok for investors or OO to buy....no one. And in a dip I would expect OO to step in way way way before investors....ignoring of course the 118'er who buys houses like I buy baked beans.

Not talking about 'I bought 15 years ago...I bought 10 years ago'....yep, those who are already in are in. Talking about those currently renting and can't afford a 3 bed semi for their family and whether they should step in (in the very unlikely event they can afford to...or in my case whether I can afford to for my son)

I am taking about now....not 10 years ago. 10 years ago I was developing....as I was almost 20 years ago. £265k on my original post based on historical prices is out of trend completely....I would not touch that if my life depended on it. Buy at this level and the music stops playing then I see that person paying for a long time to make up the drop. And yet I am still seeing £265k paid and then being rented out for £800....so the BTL'ers are still out there but just can't do maths or think 0.5% interest rates is normal.