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TheCountOfNowhere

They just wont stop....

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After the NR collapsed there was a poster or two on here saying....the government will not let house prices fall at any cost.

We all laughed.

Now house prices south of Birmingham are 50%+ above 2007 levels despite peoples incomes hardly changing.

Interest rates are STILL 0.5%

They magic up money to lend to young people on 40 year mortgages.

The £ is thrashed.

Pensions are worthless

Immigration is still massive

The 2007 posters ( trolls they were ) were actually right.  They have thrown everything to not only stop house prices falling but to make them even less affordable.

Any pretense that they will do the "right thing" any day now is long gone.

This is only going to go one way now, a currency crisis and got knows what.

What are the fine people of HPC going to do now ?

I'm off soon,  we refuse to be part of this madness any more.  My taxes are being abused, my children have no future here.

Has anyone else had enough ?

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I reluctantly bought a modest 3 bed semi that needed doing up 5 years ago in the North East in the best location we could afford with good schools close by for my 3 kids and it's now 'worth' 60% more than we paid for it or nearly 20k a year for those last 5 years. A couple of houses on the street have recently gone up for sale and sold within days but one hasn't so it could be the actual peak right now which means we might never see those 'gains' when / if we come to sell it. However I just put my head down and have got on with life since buying and don't worry about it as my gamble should be ok even if we see major falls from here and we have had 5 stable happy years so far.

Edited by GeordieAndy

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6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Make no mistake....you will never seen a penny of those "gains".

Why won't I ever see a penny? Interest rates will go to 10%, prices will drop more than 50%?

I'm not here trying to troll etc as been here a very long time and hate the system as much as most of you but due to my particular set of circumstance I threw in the towel 5 years ago and I'm luckily well up so far with enough of a cushion having paid off 5 years worth of mortgage repayments to be able to withstand a fair bit.

Edited by GeordieAndy

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15 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Make no mistake....you will never seen a penny of those "gains".

I have twice STR'd and the shared the  gains on my Mum and Dad's house after moving her to a retirement flat. So make no mistake I have as a minimum 3 times realised those gains actually 4 because my Mum in law passed last year and with some excellent help from my wife's brother and his wife we kept her out of a home in spit of her having dementia and sold her flat.

Everyone has different life experiences Count and as Venger would say there are no innocents, I am not  a developer and never will have a BTL. (was an accidental landlord 93-96 in crash but sold for what I paid for it in 96 after buying in 88)

So make no mistake you can realise gains without being a developer or BTL'er

 

Edited by Greg Bowman

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It’s bonkers they have thrown so much at keeping house prices up - yesterday’s SDLT change being the latest example. However with a third of MPs having buy to let’s and the other pro older homeowner and anti renter policies out there it’s no surprise. The voter demographics will change this soon.

We left the Uk for sunnier climbs in 2009 although I came back to work in the Uk from time to time my wife has been out 8 plus years and we look back with increasing incredulity at the UK. We were lucky to buy a house at 1.40 euros to £ in 2015. If the Uk carries on down the current road I think we will see the currency half in value against Euro and $ by 2030 and be worth 50/60 cents now there’s no North Sea oil propping it up. There’s maybe still a window to get out of sterling possibly up to 1.40 $ in the short term but it’s closing soon. As for house prices who cares what they cost if the currency is worth so little in comparative purchasing power?

 

Lev

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For the most part unless borrowing against equity meaning working for longer, most will not see gains.....they move they will reuse the gains....they require care any gains will be spent in care rent.....they die another will use/benefit from those gains..........prehaps if they downsize they might have a little gain to help them in retirement......then it is gone......because it was never there in the first place, all on paper.;)

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It's fine, really, the establishment are doing what they can to protect the value of their assets while they offload as many as possible. The crash is coming, everybody knows it, it's been an odds on certainty since June 2016.

As if any government is going to throw their hands up and say ****** it, let's bankrupt a load of our mates.

It could be triggered by a financial crisis, a trade war, a stray Hezbollah missile or by the final Brexit deal. Either way, it's happening, don't get sucked into the hype, that hype is for the foolish, to get them buying now.

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35 minutes ago, GeordieAndy said:

Why won't I ever see a penny? Interest rates will go to 10%, prices will drop more than 50%?

I'm not here trying to troll etc as been here a very long time and hate the system as much as most of you but due to my particular set of circumstance I threw in the towel 5 years ago and I'm luckily well up so far with enough of a cushion having paid off 5 years worth of mortgage repayments to be able to withstand a fair bit.

They'll take it off you to fund your pension and your end of life care....all paid for my the next generation of slaves.  They of course will get even less.

 

Quote

I'm not here trying to troll

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 

 

Sure your not, another winner from the housing bubble who has magicly made 60% in the NW where prices are still down on 2007.

I knew this thread was a dead cert troll catcher.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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14 minutes ago, Leviathan said:

It’s bonkers they have thrown so much at keeping house prices up - yesterday’s SDLT change being the latest example. However with a third of MPs having buy to let’s and the other pro older homeowner and anti renter policies out there it’s no surprise. The voter demographics will change this soon.

We left the Uk for sunnier climbs in 2009 although I came back to work in the Uk from time to time my wife has been out 8 plus years and we look back with increasing incredulity at the UK. We were lucky to buy a house at 1.40 euros to £ in 2015. If the Uk carries on down the current road I think we will see the currency half in value against Euro and $ by 2030 and be worth 50/60 cents now there’s no North Sea oil propping it up. There’s maybe still a window to get out of sterling possibly up to 1.40 $ in the short term but it’s closing soon. As for house prices who cares what they cost if the currency is worth so little in comparative purchasing power?

 

Lev

Lev,  I totally agree that the £ still has a long way to crash against the Euro. It surprises me when people think (and there are many) that £ will go up against other currencies. Currencies do NOT revert to some long/medium term mean value; they ,move in long term trends. Look at DM/Euro against £ over 40 years.  Yes Europe has problems but look at our debt, trade balance, etc

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I'm sure the stamp duty changes will give a sales  to the sub £300,000 part of the market, but I wonder if it will have the opposite effect to houses priced at say £400,000, will it not drag the price down to the £300,000 level if things get desperate. Could the same thing not apply to a house priced at £600,000, dragging the price down to the £500,000 threshold. If the cheaper house have to compete with better properties heading downwards will they not head downwards too. Perhaps this could actually work in the opposite way to what was intended.

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14 minutes ago, winkie said:

For the most part unless borrowing against equity meaning working for longer, most will not see gains.....they move they will reuse the gains....they require care any gains will be spent in care rent.....they die another will use/benefit from those gains..........prehaps if they downsize they might have a little gain to help them in retirement......then it is gone......because it was never there in the first place, all on paper.;)

Not sure I totally agree Winkie, it's arbitrage isn't it and there is a big fear campaign around the odds of ending up in care. bit dated this link:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/11005945/No-rise-in-numbers-in-care-homes-despite-surge-in-elderly-population.html

200,000 doesn't seem massive considering the size of the OAP population

 

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9 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

It's fine, really, the establishment are doing what they can to protect the value of their assets while they offload as many as possible. The crash is coming, everybody knows it, it's been an odds on certainty since June 2016.

As if any government is going to throw their hands up and say ****** it, let's bankrupt a load of our mates.

It could be triggered by a financial crisis, a trade war, a stray Hezbollah missile or by the final Brexit deal. Either way, it's happening, don't get sucked into the hype, that hype is for the foolish, to get them buying now.

Oh, we have a crash coming, not just in house prices tho...in everything :lol: 

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10 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

isecCould we have some serious HPC members views please, not the 200 post wonders who all seem to have made 60% out of nothing and think they'll be rich.

I have got more than 200 posts....:D

Only joking Count. Seriously forget property for one minute. My own personal experience has been positive of my ability to earn a good living and have a good life here in the South East. Very much an accident of birth date, location and industry but have made more from business than property even though the bed rock was right place right time ie Luck.

But looking at my children one a Sales Director in New York after working for 4 years for the firm in the UK (coming back next year)  Doing well with a Brit attitude, My daughter entered the digital world and worked for two corporate firms but not  satisfied so found a job with a gov agency on linkedin, got the job plenty of training, etc and starting in December. So our family experience is this country has been ok for us, in fact pretty damm good.

My view is that the competition wasn't as tough as the mid eighties when I embarked on my IBM career. There is opportunity in the UK it is not all doom and gloom and probably agree there will be a crash but the most skilled/experienced  will be the best prepared

Edited by Greg Bowman

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It looks like the elite are desperate to keep the show on the road, even though everyone and their dog can see the wheels coming off.

There does always seem to be an obsession with wiping out the middle classes when economies go down the tubes. 

Maybe this is because, as a group, they consume the most in order keep up with the Jones's and are the most in debt.

 

Strange days and no mistake.

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6 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

It looks like the elite are desperate to keep the show on the road, even though everyone and their dog can see the wheels coming off.

There does always seem to be an obsession with wiping out the middle classes when economies go down the tubes. 

Maybe this is because, as a group, they consume the most in order keep up with the Jones's and are the most in debt.

 

Strange days and no mistake.

They're just taking as much money from people as they can.  The only people will accessible money are the middle classes ( or whats left from them ).

 

The elites get to keep their money, up to the point the poor people start building gullotines...even then they've off shored plenty for their familys to live off.

 

My point is the loons saying they wouldnt stop were right.  The end game of this is quite frightening.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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14 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Oh, I know you can, 99% wont tho.

That's true my friend but also true of many things from getting that better job, to leaving the safety of PAYE to start your own thing.

I 100% agree with you for the sake of clarity ;)

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What annoys me more are the increasing frequency of anecdotes that ' middle class acquaintences'  have either been gifted houses, or heavy deposits, and all manner of work-arounds by BOMAD. Many of which, wouldnt have had a hope in hell on their so called work situations. I find this more loathsome than some reports of governmental 'meddling'....and possibly helps to prop up the market equivocally. Or I'm just being bitter and struggling to make enough to rent....

I believe the National mood is accelerating...the right people are getting wise to teh fact they have been screwed over big time

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14 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

It looks like the elite are desperate to keep the show on the road, even though everyone and their dog can see the wheels coming off.

There does always seem to be an obsession with wiping out the middle classes when economies go down the tubes. 

Maybe this is because, as a group, they consume the most in order keep up with the Jones's and are the most in debt.

 

Strange days and no mistake.

The middle classes are easy targets exactly because of that, anecdotally I have run a business for over 25 years and when I think about it most people I have met who are first generation business owners (as opposed to self employed) have tended to come from the working class, is that because we have less to lose or keeping up with the Joneses isn't our thing - I don't know but for sure it makes us less easy to tax

Edited by Greg Bowman

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1 hour ago, GeordieAndy said:

I reluctantly bought a modest 3 bed semi that needed doing up 5 years ago in the North East in the best location we could afford with good schools close by for my 3 kids and it's now 'worth' 60% more than we paid for it or nearly 20k a year for those last 5 years. A couple of houses on the street have recently gone up for sale and sold within days but one hasn't so it could be the actual peak right now which means we might never see those 'gains' when / if we come to sell it. However I just put my head down and have got on with life since buying and don't worry about it as my gamble should be ok even if we see major falls from here and we have had 5 stable happy years so far.

I take it you are either Newcastle / Gateshead or somewhere towards the coast - as elsewhere I'm not sure where prices have increased that much.

Further south on Teesside prices aren't rising and nothing is selling

 

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  • 406 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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