jiltedjen Posted May 7, 2017 Author Share Posted May 7, 2017 Thanks sorry about that! all sorted now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrtickle Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 3 hours ago, jiltedjen said: Thanks sorry about that! all sorted now. Not at all, no apology necessary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 There is one thing that still o nth books but outside UKGOV - Basel3. Its possbile that IO motgages ill be banned/shtdown. Imagine all the IO BTL being moved to 10 year commercial loans, at commcercial rates. Basically, an IO BTL has the same risk profile as a commercial bridging loan and should be charged like one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted May 8, 2017 Author Share Posted May 8, 2017 April 2019 - 700 days 23 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + potential implementation date for Basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending. There is a lot of stuff heading the BTL's way, including a lot of 'soft' factors without firm dates. The BTL game is being killed off. Even just stopping the expansion of BTL portfolios is enough to kill the housing market, we should see a HPC when the forced sellers arrive, but as we have all seen there is a lot of denial in the BTL ranks. The time to sell was a few months ago, but some can still get out now. Thinking 'Something will come up' wont save your leverage portfolio. I dont think many will face reality until the tax bill lands on their doormat. And we have a long wait for that date. But a stagnant/slight falling market is OK for me until then. January 2019 - 611 days, 20 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted May 8, 2017 Author Share Posted May 8, 2017 Three months of house price falls now, perhaps the article splashed on the BBC news will be the terrifying prod for those BTL to finally admit failure and start planning to offload (while they still can!). They sure have a lot to be scared about heading their way. Market stagnation like a rocket running out of fuel, a few split seconds seemingly motionless before it falls to earth. Updated: June 2017 - 37 days, 1 lot of rent away. Fed might raise rates, putting some pressure on BOE to do the same. September 2017 - 122 days, 4 lots of rent away. (banks need to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging) December 2017 - 213 days, 7 lots of rent away. (for those selling CGT due within 30 days) + All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlords April 2018 - 334 days, 11 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating + landlords pushed into higher tax brackets lose child benefits January 2019 - 610 days, 20 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills) April 2019 - 699 days 23 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + potential implementation date for basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending January 2020 - 974 days 32 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills) April 2020 - 1065 days 35 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) January 2021 - 1340 days 44 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills) January 2022 - 1706 days 56 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills) Other stuff: landlords expecting 13+ weeks to sell, coupled with long voids as tenants leave when 'for sale' signs are stuck up. Plus already in play : MMR rules, 3% second home charge, political risk, end of one version of HTB. On hold until after election - landlords have to file 5 tax returns a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 2 hours ago, jiltedjen said: Three months of house price falls now, perhaps the article splashed on the BBC news will be the terrifying prod for those BTL to finally admit failure and start planning to offload (while they still can!). They sure have a lot to be scared about heading their way. Market stagnation like a rocket running out of fuel, a few split seconds seemingly motionless before it falls to earth. Updated: June 2017 - 37 days, 1 lot of rent away. Fed might raise rates, putting some pressure on BOE to do the same. September 2017 - 122 days, 4 lots of rent away. (banks need to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging) December 2017 - 213 days, 7 lots of rent away. (for those selling CGT due within 30 days) + All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlords April 2018 - 334 days, 11 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating + landlords pushed into higher tax brackets lose child benefits January 2019 - 610 days, 20 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills) April 2019 - 699 days 23 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + potential implementation date for basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending January 2020 - 974 days 32 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills) April 2020 - 1065 days 35 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) January 2021 - 1340 days 44 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills) January 2022 - 1706 days 56 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills) Other stuff: landlords expecting 13+ weeks to sell, coupled with long voids as tenants leave when 'for sale' signs are stuck up. Plus already in play : MMR rules, 3% second home charge, political risk, end of one version of HTB. On hold until after election - landlords have to file 5 tax returns a year. Can you add....years left on I/O mortgage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted May 9, 2017 Author Share Posted May 9, 2017 The average BTL'er has no ideas whats heading their way. Updated: June 2017 - 36 days, 1 lot of rent away. Fed might raise rates, putting some pressure on BOE to do the same. September 2017 - 121 days, 4 lots of rent away. (banks need to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging) December 2017 - 212 days, 7 lots of rent away. (for those selling CGT due within 30 days) + All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlords April 2018 - 333 days, 11 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating + landlords pushed into higher tax brackets lose child benefits January 2019 - 609 days, 20 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills) April 2019 - 698 days 23 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + potential implementation date for basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending January 2020 - 973 days 32 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills) April 2020 - 1064 days 35 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) January 2021 - 1339 days 44 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills) January 2022 - 1705 days 56 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills) Other stuff: landlords expecting 13+ weeks to sell, coupled with long voids as tenants leave when 'for sale' signs are stuck up. Plus already in play : MMR rules, 3% second home charge, political risk, end of one version of HTB. On hold until after election - landlords have to file 5 tax returns a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted May 10, 2017 Author Share Posted May 10, 2017 (edited) Some landlords only just waking up to the energy efficiency standards drastic effects on another thread, questioning what else could be coming. *Cough* Updated: June 2017 - 35 days, 1 lot of rent away. Fed might raise rates, putting some pressure on BOE to do the same. September 2017 - 120 days, 4 lots of rent away. (banks forced to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging), this is already starting to happen December 2017 - 211 days, 7 lots of rent away. (for those selling CGT due within 30 days) + All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlords April 2018 - 332 days, 11 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating + landlords pushed into higher tax brackets lose child benefits January 2019 - 608 days, 20 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills) April 2019 - 697 days 23 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + potential implementation date for basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending January 2020 - 972 days 32 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills) April 2020 - 1063 days 35 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) January 2021 - 1338 days 44 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills) January 2022 - 1704 days 56 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills) Other stuff: landlords expecting 13+ weeks to sell, coupled with long voids as tenants leave when 'for sale' signs are stuck up. Plus already in play : MMR rules, 3% second home charge, political risk, end of one version of HTB. On hold until after election - landlords have to file 5 tax returns a year. Edited May 10, 2017 by jiltedjen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted May 10, 2017 Author Share Posted May 10, 2017 This thread has 15,572 views I cant believe its had that many views already. i guess this website has a lot of unspeaking guests. I do hope some are BTL who have caved and come to learn their fate. Also i can now write in red. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
999house Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Picked up a good deal on a flat today. Rents have definitely gone down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 I've been watching this site for nearly 9 years and hardly ever comment. I'm a chartered surveyor in the housing market and can't believe how long this madness has gone on. I was convinced it would crash in 2008...........wrong again.:-( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jfk Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Brilliant work @jiltedjen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 10 hours ago, jiltedjen said: Some landlords only just waking up to the energy efficiency standards drastic effects on another thread, questioning what else could be coming. *Cough* Updated: June 2017 - 35 days, 1 lot of rent away. Fed might raise rates, putting some pressure on BOE to do the same. September 2017 - 120 days, 4 lots of rent away. (banks forced to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging), this is already starting to happen December 2017 - 211 days, 7 lots of rent away. (for those selling CGT due within 30 days) + All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlords April 2018 - 332 days, 11 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating + landlords pushed into higher tax brackets lose child benefits January 2019 - 608 days, 20 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills) April 2019 - 697 days 23 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + potential implementation date for basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending January 2020 - 972 days 32 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills) April 2020 - 1063 days 35 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) January 2021 - 1338 days 44 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills) January 2022 - 1704 days 56 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills) Other stuff: landlords expecting 13+ weeks to sell, coupled with long voids as tenants leave when 'for sale' signs are stuck up. Plus already in play : MMR rules, 3% second home charge, political risk, end of one version of HTB. On hold until after election - landlords have to file 5 tax returns a year. Wetting my pants in anticipation.Thanks again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 (edited) Tired Thursday has come around again. I have added on that 600,000 people have interest only mortgages due to mature by 2020. I would like to continue to evolve the list with interesting data if anyone has anything tasty facts and figures for me to plug in? Updated: June 2017 - 34 days, 1 lot of rent away. Fed might raise rates, putting some pressure on BOE to do the same. September 2017 - 119 days, 4 lots of rent away. (banks forced to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging), this is already starting to happen December 2017 - 210 days, 7 lots of rent away. (for those selling CGT due within 30 days) + All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlords April 2018 - 331 days, 11 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating + landlords pushed into higher tax brackets lose child benefits January 2019 - 607 days, 20 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills) April 2019 - 696 days 23 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + potential implementation date for Basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending January 2020 - 971 days 32 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills) also 600,000 people have interest-only mortgages due to mature (a large % will be forced sellers) - this will be ramping up so technically this is already happening. April 2020 - 1062 days 35 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) January 2021 - 1337 days 44 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills) January 2022 - 1703 days 56 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills) Other stuff: landlords expecting 13+ weeks to sell, coupled with long voids as tenants leave when 'for sale' signs are stuck up. Plus already in play : MMR rules, 3% second home charge, political risk, end of one version of HTB. On hold until after election - landlords have to file 5 tax returns a year. Edited May 11, 2017 by jiltedjen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 Well it's finally Friday. People are taking out too many car loans with risky lending (finacial crisis 2.0 just around the corner), the Poverty 118's realising they are public enemy no. 1 and refusing to take part in the BBC's piece. Gradually more people are looking to sell up. Updated: June 2017 - 33 days, 1 lot of rent away. Fed might raise rates, putting some pressure on BOE to do the same. September 2017 - 118 days, 4 lots of rent away. (banks forced to assess whole portfolio when remortgaging), this is already starting to happen December 2017 - 209 days, 7 lots of rent away. (for those selling CGT due within 30 days) + All estate agent letting fees passed onto landlords April 2018 - 330 days, 11 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + landlords have to shell out loads to achieve reasonable EPC rating + landlords pushed into higher tax brackets lose child benefits January 2019 - 606 days, 20 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2017/2018 tax bills) April 2019 - 695 days 23 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) + potential implementation date for Basel 3 rules killing a lot of high LTV lending January 2020 - 970 days 32 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2018/2019 tax bills) also 600,000 people have interest-only mortgages due to mature (a large % will be forced sellers) - this will be ramping up so technically this is already happening. April 2020 - 1061 days 35 lots of rent away (start to build up even more tax liabilities) January 2021 - 1336 days 44 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2019/2018 tax bills) January 2022 - 1702 days 56 lots of rent away (last chance to pay 2020/2021 tax bills) Other stuff: landlords expecting 13+ weeks to sell, coupled with long voids as tenants leave when 'for sale' signs are stuck up. Plus already in play : MMR rules, 3% second home charge, political risk, end of one version of HTB. On hold until after election - landlords have to file 5 tax returns a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 On 11/05/2017 at 0:45 PM, jiltedjen said: I would like to continue to evolve the list with interesting data if anyone has anything tasty facts and figures for me to plug in? It might be worth briefly noting key dates around our exit from the EU? While we don't yet know the exact outcome of negotiations they could turn out to be significant for BTL profitability. (They may impact on rental demand, credit conditions, etc.) Assuming no extension to Article 50 negotiations we'll exit 31st March 2019, so April 2019 we will no longer be an EU member state. If there is a transition deal, where we temporarily retain some aspects of EU membership as a non-member, then it's unlikely to last any longer than three years, (AIUI the EU parliament - who have to approve any Article 50 deal - have passed a resolution to this effect), so April 2022 will be the latest we end all transitional arrangements with the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrtickle Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Another relevant date on the road to "things being fairer": April 2018 - Support for Mortgage Interest (SMI) is only available as a LOAN from this point on, secured by a second charge on the property [https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2015-2016/0051/en/16051en.pdf / https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/323702/response/790160/attach/html/3/FoI%201066%20Mr%20Stevenson%20SMI%20loans%20reply%202016%2003%2031.doc.html] links taken from the HPC thread on this subject. SMI is a ******ing disgrace. My tax money being used to not only "keep people in their homes" but ALSO to pay down their capital. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiltedjen Posted May 13, 2017 Author Share Posted May 13, 2017 Thanks - will add them on when I'm on a propper computer. anyone know the peak of I.O loans coming due? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ah-so Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, jiltedjen said: Thanks - will add them on when I'm on a propper computer. anyone know the peak of I.O loans coming due? Yes - it picks up from about 2028 and peaks in about 2032. The maturity dates are not surprising if you add 25 years to our own pre-crisis bubble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anonlymouse Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 Regarding the micro bubble of the April 2016 stamp duty surge, when are these mortgages likely to come out of their introductory rates and onto the SVRs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrtickle Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 4 hours ago, anonlymouse said: Regarding the micro bubble of the April 2016 stamp duty surge, when are these mortgages likely to come out of their introductory rates and onto the SVRs? At the risk of sounding flippant, The mortgages which had a 2-year introductory rate will go onto SVR just before April 2018 The mortgages which had a 3-year introductory rate will go onto SVR just before April 2019 The mortgages which had a 5-year introductory rate will go onto SVR just before April 2021 etc. But yeah there could easily be a nice little bundle of them 11 months from now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenDevil Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 Anecdotally I am seeing a lot of new stock coiming on with tenants in situ or just evicted. Are you seeing this ? s24 seems to be working its magic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 5 hours ago, mrtickle said: At the risk of sounding flippant, The mortgages which had a 2-year introductory rate will go onto SVR just before April 2018 The mortgages which had a 3-year introductory rate will go onto SVR just before April 2019 The mortgages which had a 5-year introductory rate will go onto SVR just before April 2021 etc. But yeah there could easily be a nice little bundle of them 11 months from now. Youve also got HTB where that extra 25% comes into play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 On 5/10/2017 at 8:43 PM, Old Guy said: I've been watching this site for nearly 9 years and hardly ever comment. I'm a chartered surveyor in the housing market and can't believe how long this madness has gone on. I was convinced it would crash in 2008...........wrong again.:-( Are you going to spill the beans then Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrtickle Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 2 hours ago, spyguy said: Youve also got HTB where that extra 25% comes into play. good point. Unknown dates of course, all depends on when each buyer "took advantage" of HTB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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