Saving For a Space Ship Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: If they had actually read the full UBS analysis, they would have seen that UBS are predicting that development the EV market will mirror the mobile phone market with Tesla playing the role of Apple and Volkswagen the roll of Samsung with VW selling more cars but Tesla making 3 times the profit. The key differentiator is Tesla's lead in software which will soon represent 45% of the value of an EV. My own view is that at the current level Tesla's shares are overvalued no matter how many cars they mange to sell by 2025. I kept 20% of my stake as a free long shot punt on self driving software actually being delivered later in the year. It probably won't be but if it is the shares will rise many fold. UBS more than doubles its Tesla price target, citing huge upside in the automaker's software business | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com) Some problems with the Vw ID4 Ev (from an engineer I respect ) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EotuxCptcM4The Volkswagen ID.4 Is A Disappointing Electric Car (For Now) I find the new Ampera an exciting venture, especially with Sandy Monro investing Aptera: More Aerodynamic Than F-150 Mirror!? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DhzkUnIh58 Edited March 5, 2021 by Saving For a Space Ship Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnylattej Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 9 hours ago, smash said: Amen to that. We need fewer cars on the roads and much less dependence on the car, the improvement to our lives could be enormous. Quite how any city dweller can think otherwise is beyond me yet there's people on this forum who just want to hi-jack every thread with talk about cars, no their car and their previous car, something so laughable its model name in M5PG. I can only assume that such a person is hypnotised by the smarmy face on the Jeremy Clarkson poster that he has framed on his bedroom wall. Which is fine if you live in a city, or the south east of England. A friend of mine lives on the north coast of Cornwall, 1 bus per week! If you can't drive you are very isolated. I tried planning a walking holiday in north Devon/Exmoor using buses for the return journey, there is no service. If you live a rural area a car or motorcycle is essential. It doesn't have to be a Tesla! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 39 minutes ago, Saving For a Space Ship said: Some problems with the Vw ID4 Ev (from an engineer I respect ) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EotuxCptcM4The Volkswagen ID.4 Is A Disappointing Electric Car (For Now) I Interesting, Basically they still cant get the software right, and as has been pointed out, software is 45% of the value of an EV. No one pedal driving would be a deal breaker for me. It is a basic SUV crossover in 2wd at $30000 after the federal grant will be for people who cant afford a Tesla Model Y. I will bet the AWD versions that have to compete with the Ford Mustang Mach E and Tesla Model Y, at Tesla Model Y money, wont sell well. The only people who will buy them will be those who are obsessed with panel gaps, hate Telsa, and prefer the VW ID4 looks to The Mustang Mach E. At Tesla Model Y money it's slower, software bugged, less storage, forced servicing costs ( for what?) less tech, less functionality. They will have to discount it so much to sell AWD versions in volume that they will make Zero profit on it. And most VW dealers like in Europe, just wont try and sell it. Same with the Ford. No problems here with Tesla. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 32 minutes ago, markyh said: Interesting, Basically they still cant get the software right, and as has been pointed out, software is 45% of the value of an EV. No one pedal driving would be a deal breaker for me. Right. I'll use my £200 phone and get a £25K discount on a Tesla. What fantastical ********, does a Dacia Spring stop working 55% into a journey because the software isn't there? One pedal driving is an option in the ID.4, he seems to be unaware of it. According to Volkswagen, “conversion of energy inevitably leads to losses,” which is true, but can the ID.4 travel further without regenerative braking. This is something its owners will be able to test themselves because the ID.4 has a mode for one-pedal driving: B (Brake). Volkswagen could have spared them from this job. https://insideevs.com/news/465107/coasting-or-regenerating-vw-id4-prefers-first/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 8 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said: If they had actually read the full UBS analysis, they would have seen that UBS are predicting that development the EV market will mirror the mobile phone market with Tesla playing the role of Apple and Volkswagen the roll of Samsung with VW selling more cars but Tesla making 3 times the profit. Cars are not mobile phones and they are not software, in any case the ID.4 like the ID.3 is receiving a major update of its software in three days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: Cars are not mobile phones and they are not software, in any case the ID.4 like the ID.3 is receiving a major update of its software in three days. It will be over the air too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 25 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: Cars are not mobile phones and they are not software, in any case the ID.4 like the ID.3 is receiving a major update of its software in three days. That is VW code for, "All will have working reversing sensors now", that alone took us a year to sort, now we will crack on with other software glitches. 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: Cars are not mobile phones and they are not software, in any case the ID.4 like the ID.3 is receiving a major update of its software in three days. Get with the program Grandad, cars are tech now, your Dacia wont self drive or play games when bored, or have a fully harmonised "bus" that anything can interact with anything else. Dacia is a 20th century car with a 21st century drivetrain, no one but the poor will buy it, and the poor will only because they have no choice. Otherwise Dacia ICE would have models 1, 2 and 3 in the top sales charts every month, they never make the charts, ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 31 minutes ago, markyh said: Get with the program Grandad, cars are tech now, your Dacia wont self drive or play games when bored, or have a fully harmonised "bus" that anything can interact with anything else. Dacia is a 20th century car with a 21st century drivetrain, no one but the poor will buy it, and the poor will only because they have no choice. Otherwise Dacia ICE would have models 1, 2 and 3 in the top sales charts every month, they never make the charts, ever. Interpretation: "I have F*** all knowledge about cars or engineering but Tesla told me what to think so it must be right" Tell, why is the best selling BEV in China a low tech cheap Chinese make? Why are the best selling BEVs in every country in Europe not Tesla's? Dacia has not gone on sale yet, but it will outsell tesla in Europe, that's for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 56 minutes ago, 2buyornot2buy said: It will be over the air too. After the 2.1 update that enables OTA updates, yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 48 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: Interpretation: "I have F*** all knowledge about cars or engineering but Tesla told me what to think so it must be right" Tell, why is the best selling BEV in China a low tech cheap Chinese make? Why are the best selling BEVs in every country in Europe not Tesla's? Dacia has not gone on sale yet, but it will outsell tesla in Europe, that's for sure. Tell me a list of work you have done on cars you have owned? I have fixed / replaced over 35 years, Head gaskets Snapped timing belt (full top end rebuild on a 20v Golf GTI) Changed engines (MGB GT / MINI) Changed clutches Changed dual mass flywheel Brakes, pads, wipers, clutch cables, abs sensors, wheel bearings, exhausts, electric and so much more i cant remember it all. My cars go to garages for MOT's, that's it. The best selling chinese BEV is a cheap becasue thats all they can afford, 80% of the chinese middle class buy Tesla, In europe , again people who dont buy Tesla is 90% a cost issue, because Telsa havent yet released a sub €30k car to compete on price. They will. not everyone is willing to buy a Tesla over 8 years, which is what we will do when the model Y arrives in the UK. Will be no need to change it, battery will be under warrenty, it wont break down, no servicing needed to keep the warranty and as the tech is 5-10 years ahead of everyone else, by the time its paid and time for a change, maybe everyone else will have casught up. 😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Servicing a car is not engineering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: Servicing a car is not engineering. uh, huh, you said no knowledge of cars, but hey ho, design me a complex hydraulic circuit, to incorperate a hydrostatic drive, lets test you engineering knowledge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 4 hours ago, Peter Hun said: After the 2.1 update that enables OTA updates, yes. The UBS report was written by a well known Tesla sceptic. After looking into the issue in detail he changed his mind saying that the opposition hasn't even caught up with Tesla's second generation software/hardware released in 2016 yet and is many years behind the current third generation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Tesla share price collapse continues Market Summary > Tesla Inc 579.32 USD−42.12 (6.78%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: The UBS report was written by a well known Tesla sceptic. After looking into the issue in detail he changed his mind saying that the opposition hasn't even caught up with Tesla's second generation software/hardware released in 2016 yet and is many years behind the current third generation. Nobody buying a car gives a rats ar** about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Peter Hun said: Nobody buying a car gives a rats ar** about that. I can see you years ago arguing that the iPhone was over priced, doesn't do anything Android cannot and will never sell. The threat for VW and others is that they will become reliant on Apple/Google for their software and be left with just the low margin metal bashing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said: I can see you years ago arguing that the iPhone was over priced, doesn't do anything Android cannot and will never sell. The threat for VW and others is that they will become reliant on Apple/Google for their software and be left with just the low margin metal bashing. Android is overwhelmingly dominant and iPhone is no longer making as much money as it did. Apple, for all its size , cannot get anyone to build its car. There is a good reason for that. If you were a software company you might not understand what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smash Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 If I were Elon Musk I would see if other car manufacturers would like to call a truce and equip their cars with the Tesla CPU and software. Perhaps in the future you could be buy a Lexus with a "Tesla Equipped" badge on the dashboard or centre console. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Peter Hun said: Android is overwhelmingly dominant and iPhone is no longer making as much money as it did. Apple, for all its size , cannot get anyone to build its car. There is a good reason for that. If you were a software company you might not understand what it is. 😁 I knew it. The reason Apple cannot get anyone to build their car is they want total control not a partnership, that and their long history of screwing over their suppliers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, smash said: If I were Elon Musk I would see if other car manufacturers would like to call a truce and equip their cars with the Tesla CPU and software. Perhaps in the future you could be buy a Lexus with a "Tesla Equipped" badge on the dashboard or centre console. Never going to happen. Nobody is interested in their 'technology' and it will never become dominant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Hun Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, smash said: If I were Elon Musk I would see if other car manufacturers would like to call a truce and equip their cars with the Tesla CPU and software. Perhaps in the future you could be buy a Lexus with a "Tesla Equipped" badge on the dashboard or centre console. How about "Dead by Tesla". The manufacturers will have standardised autonomy, networked with Galileo as an integral part. Tesla will have to fit in with the standard or stick to the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 This is a sight to behold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smash Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Peter Hun said: How about "Dead by Tesla". The manufacturers will have standardised autonomy, networked with Galileo as an integral part. Tesla will have to fit in with the standard or stick to the US. When I looked into Tesla over a year ago they have filed no end of patents related to every part of electric cars, they may be further ahead than you give them credit for. One thing is for sure, with the future picture being so uncertain its not a good time to buy a new car unless you really need one. As I'm positively anti-car that's a good thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smash Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: This is a sight to behold So if loads of people have got a sob story or know someone who has, having lost out in Tesla shares, could that damage the brand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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