Bhoy Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Article from Business Insider UK showing a chart, from Morgan Stanley, that shows "the final nail in the coffin of Britain's post-2008 crisis property boom". It shows three separate indices that measure major movements in UK house prices. They are all heading to zero or going negative. Which is contradictory to the nonsense that CEBR are spouting today (house prices to rise £52,000 by 2021), an organisation I should point out that is partly funded by corporate members, mostly banks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhoy Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-british-property-boom-is-over-2017-4 Forgot the link! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 CEBR 2007 predictions said that rumours of headwinds facing UK property price growth were wrong and prices would continue to march upwards.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbowed Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, rantnrave said: CEBR 2007 predictions said that rumours of headwinds facing UK property price growth were wrong and prices would continue to march upwards.. Indeed: House prices in Britain set to SOAR 25 per cent over next four years The CEBR are quoted by the Daily Excretia: http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/property/788407/Britain-house-prices-soar-25-next-four-years-new-figures-reveal House price inflation forever... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 For some sense of balance, a lot of the regular house price indices were trending towards 0% annual growth in Q2 2015. They then stabilised at around today's levels (3-5%). No idea why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freki Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 Has any of those articles predicted a crash? Reminds me of the Savill's graph from the decrease in construction in London. Assumption is that we already achieved a lowest point in number of sales in new build. So their graphs gives an akward 90 degree angle on sales trend... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhoy Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 21 hours ago, rantnrave said: CEBR 2007 predictions said that rumours of headwinds facing UK property price growth were wrong and prices would continue to march upwards.. That's great - I actually tried to find out what those Clowns had said about the market in the past. Whatever the banks have told them to say is probably the answer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhoy Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 21 hours ago, Unbowed said: Indeed: House prices in Britain set to SOAR 25 per cent over next four years That word "Soar" really f#cking grates on me. It's like the Daily Rags can't help but include it in every single article they write. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greater Fool Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 But the population is due to increase rapidly: The population of the UK will be the largest in Europe by 2050, overtaking France and Germany, mainly due to an ageing population and immigration. The UK has seen more births than deaths in every year since 1976, helping drive the population to 65m, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics. This figure will soar to 76m in 2045. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/03/uk-population-largest-europe-2050-driven-immigration-ageing/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooksook Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Tiger131 said: But the population is due to increase rapidly: The population of the UK will be the largest in Europe by 2050, overtaking France and Germany, mainly due to an ageing population and immigration. Pray tell how an ageing population is responsible for population growth? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mathschoc Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Tiger131 said: But the population is due to increase rapidly: The population of the UK will be the largest in Europe by 2050, overtaking France and Germany, mainly due to an ageing population and immigration. The UK has seen more births than deaths in every year since 1976, helping drive the population to 65m, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics. This figure will soar to 76m in 2045. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/03/uk-population-largest-europe-2050-driven-immigration-ageing/ But baby boomers, the largest section of the population are starting to retire which means many will be dead around 2045. Throw in brexit and the fact folk are having children late, I struggle to see how the popn figure can reach 76m It means more strain on health, social care but more properties becoming available (BTL landlords are mostly boomers too). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, mathschoc said: But baby boomers, the largest section of the population are starting to retire which means many will be dead around 2045. Throw in brexit and the fact folk are having children late, I struggle to see how the popn figure can reach 76m It means more strain on health, social care but more properties becoming available (BTL landlords are mostly boomers too). Not so. Check out the population pyramid at bottom of page https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/february2016 Gen X is the turd in the water pipe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, crooksook said: Pray tell how an ageing population is responsible for population growth? An aging population means that fewer people are dying young, which means more people around at any one time. Population change involves two stats, population additions and population subtractions. If the number of people being taken out of the population calculation (through deaths and emigration) is lower then the additions (through births and immigration) then this will have a net growth effect. Basically, all the people who used to die at 70 and are now living to 80 are adding to the population figures for an additional ten years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btd1981 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 3 hours ago, Bhoy said: That's great - I actually tried to find out what those Clowns had said about the market in the past. Whatever the banks have told them to say is probably the answer It's quite interesting doing a Google search for 'BBC house prices <year>' to see predictions from the last decade. All the familiar buzzwords and phrases are there, including constrained supply and 'low interest rates' (if only we knew..). As far as constrained supply goes, outs a shame the government couldn't/can't do anything about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhoy Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 1 minute ago, btd1981 said: It's quite interesting doing a Google search for 'BBC house prices <year>' to see predictions from the last decade. All the familiar buzzwords and phrases are there, including constrained supply and 'low interest rates' (if only we knew..). As far as constrained supply goes, outs a shame the government couldn't/can't do anything about it. I remember seeing the headlines from the 89-90(?) crash and word for word, it could have been the bile spat out by the papers today - lack of supply, high immigration, etc, etc Low and behold it crashed. Has anyone got any examples of the old headlines? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btd1981 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 I believe they are archived on here somewhere. Might be in the main page but I'm sorry I can't remember where. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 (edited) Edited April 7, 2017 by winkie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrMartinSanchez Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Bhoy said: I remember seeing the headlines from the 89-90(?) crash and word for word, it could have been the bile spat out by the papers today - lack of supply, high immigration, etc, etc Low and behold it crashed. Has anyone got any examples of the old headlines? 1 hour ago, btd1981 said: I believe they are archived on here somewhere. Might be in the main page but I'm sorry I can't remember where. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/wiki/Read_what_the_Newspapers_were_saying_last_time_around Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMarket Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 http://www.lettingfocus.com/blogs/2017/04/is-a-housing-over-supply-looming/ Good demographic analysis. Probably bang on. People will wake up one day in the not too distant future and whinge, but the government said we had a housing supply crisis... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
man o' the year Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 The death of the housing market seems greatly exaggerated where I look. Even the crap which has sat on the market for 7 years or so is selling recently. Prices gone crazy. God help us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, man o' the year said: The death of the housing market seems greatly exaggerated where I look. Even the crap which has sat on the market for 7 years or so is selling recently. Prices gone crazy. God help us! North or south? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
man o' the year Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Si1 said: North or south? BA2 and BS39 but I am in Notts at the moment and it is not much different. God how hopeful I was reading the 10% falls in Cambridge on another thread. It becomes less and less likely that I will ever buy. Not wasting my good cash on the sh1tboxes available. When I started looking I had 100k deposit. Now I have £350k and am further from buying than ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fromage Frais Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 (edited) 11 minutes ago, man o' the year said: BA2 and BS39 but I am in Notts at the moment and it is not much different. God how hopeful I was reading the 10% falls in Cambridge on another thread. It becomes less and less likely that I will ever buy. Not wasting my good cash on the sh1tboxes available. When I started looking I had 100k deposit. Now I have £350k and am further from buying than ever. Norwich has gone a bit silly also in the nicer parts where I am looking. I was all flatlining nicely and prices falling. Its either a crack up of the last ripple out from the richer parts of the country or the changes from the BOE post brexit have fed through and juiced things even more. Lots of chains still and lots falling through but definitely picked up and sstc for 2016 +10% of not the 2016 +20% which many loons are asking for. detached 3/4 houses NR2 NR4 NR12 wroxham NR28 Thorpe End Edited April 7, 2017 by Fromage Frais Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Is this on high or low volumes do we know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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