Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[crouch]

1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

Without the charity of the EU, it will stop. Without us begging them - it will stop. If I was them, I would tell us to feck right off - as this is the consequence of the lying Brexit toads.

Right,so they have a trade surplus with us of around £60 bn (goods and services) and they are going to cut this off immediately? Well, there are stupid actions and there are really stupid actions: I'd guess cutting us off completely would be the latter.

 

4 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

n other words we will be more beholden to the kindness of your enemy. But maybe they will remember the Berlin blockade and we'll be able to survive.

"Enemy"? Europe is our friend and ally.

 

5 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

No doubt this will be reflected in your press " ... oranges and olives foisted on us by Nazis! Ban European citrus! Say no to Junkers Yoghurt ..."

 Too much wine?

 

6 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

It's all a complete waste of time, energy and money. A pointless prance by attention whores.

Most things are; it's just that we don't know it.

[jonb2]

Just now, crouch said:

The success of those countries was determined politically over a long period. The planning you talk about was a plan for education and industry support over many years and, as you say, it pays dividends.

There is no reason why we could not have that in this country but that has nothing to do with our membership of the EU; it has more to do with our adversarial political culture based on two parties with widely differing views on many things which is inimical to a consistent approach on these issues over a long period.

I agree it would be an advantage to have at least a consensus on major issues going forward and the implications for the infrastructure but whether we can get this under the political system as is is a moot point. If we gravitate to more coalition government the more considered approach my be possible; if we stay as we are - not. 

The leavers here think there is some new wave of untapped wealth after Brexit to solve our major problems

On investment - both home-grown (borrowings) and even more importantly - inward investment.

Let's see shall we - here's a logical question.

Will there be more or less investment after Brexit?

I am not fecking interested in whether there might be some twinkling in the stars for my when my 5 year old grandson is married, middle-aged and with a family of his own. I am interested in the irreversible damage done in the next 10 years.

[jonb2]

Just now, crouch said:

Right,so they have a trade surplus with us of around £60 bn (goods and services) and they are going to cut this off immediately? Well, there are stupid actions and there are really stupid actions: I'd guess cutting us off completely would be the latter.

 

"Enemy"? Europe is our friend and ally.

 

 Too much wine?

 

Most things are; it's just that we don't know it.

You're a leaver. Europe is your enemy. Otherwise you would not countenance being part of such a nationalistic movement.

[crouch]

Just now, jonb2 said:

The leavers here think there is some new wave of untapped wealth after Brexit to solve our major problems

Do they?

 

1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

On investment - both home-grown (borrowings) and even more importantly - inward investment.

Let's see shall we - here's a logical question.

Will there be more or less investment after Brexit?

As I can't tell the future I have no idea.

 

1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

I am not fecking interested in whether there might be some twinkling in the stars for my when my 5 year old grandson is married, middle-aged and with a family of his own. I am interested in the irreversible damage done in the next 10 years.

Being interested is a good thing; coming to the wrong conclusions less so.

[crouch]

1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

You're a leaver. Europe is your enemy. Otherwise you would not countenance being part of such a nationalistic movement.

No.

[Fromage Frais]

Just now, jonb2 said:

The leavers here think there is some new wave of untapped wealth after Brexit to solve our major problems

On investment - both home-grown (borrowings) and even more importantly - inward investment.

Let's see shall we - here's a logical question.

Will there be more or less investment after Brexit?

I am not fecking interested in whether there might be some twinkling in the stars for my when my 5 year old grandson is married, middle-aged and with a family of his own. I am interested in the irreversible damage done in the next 10 years.

There will be less in or out.

I am on a website called HPC so i think there will be a massive recession and depression.

Brexit wont deliver paradise and remain wont prevent purgatory for our debt sins.

I do agree however that wealth is created when connections and trade is eased so I dont see No deal happening but maybe to get the best deal we need to look over the edge or the compromise has to come from an authentic Brexit voice. 

[jonb2]

2 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

There will be less in or out.

I am on a website called HPC so i think there will be a massive recession and depression.

Brexit wont deliver paradise and remain wont prevent purgatory for our debt sins.

I do agree however that wealth is created when connections and trade is eased so I dont see No deal happening but maybe to get the best deal we need to look over the edge or the compromise has to come from an authentic Brexit voice. 

I expect a capital flight after Brexit. Especially by the Brexit cheerleaders - examples as modelled by Dyson and Ratcliffe. I expect the country to double down on being the money laundering capital of the world. I expect the privatisation creep to go much quicker. I expect a huge amount of jobs lost with mortgage lending tightening so only foreigners can afford to buy our houses for cash. I expect innovation to hit a brick wall as R&D is de-funded and cooperation with others becomes impossible. I expect crime figures to break all records and drug use to go out of control. I expect tax avoidance to double. I expect thousands of businesses to go under.

Most of all, I expect the whole population to be overwhelmed by regret at how fecking stupid the thing is. Only 50% will ever admit it though.

It's what happens when a country goes bankrupt. There is nothing, absolutely nothing that Brexit brings that can possibly tip the country towards a better future. The ONLY thing that can do that is to rid ourselves of the system here. But instead of contemplating this, we have been fed this BS fairy story of leaving the EU is the panacea to all our problems. Talk about a clever distraction. Eh?

 

 

[Fromage Frais]

18 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

I expect a capital flight after Brexit. Especially by the Brexit cheerleaders - examples as modelled by Dyson and Ratcliffe. I expect the country to double down on being the money laundering capital of the world. I expect the privatisation creep to go much quicker. I expect a huge amount of jobs lost with mortgage lending tightening so only foreigners can afford to buy our houses for cash. I expect innovation to hit a brick wall as R&D is de-funded and cooperation with others becomes impossible. I expect crime figures to break all records and drug use to go out of control. I expect tax avoidance to double. I expect thousands of businesses to go under.

Most of all, I expect the whole population to be overwhelmed by regret at how fecking stupid the thing is. Only 50% will ever admit it though.

It's what happens when a country goes bankrupt. There is nothing, absolutely nothing that Brexit brings that can possibly tip the country towards a better future. The ONLY thing that can do that is to rid ourselves of the system here. But instead of contemplating this, we have been fed this BS fairy story of leaving the EU is the panacea to all our problems. Talk about a clever distraction. Eh?

 

 

I dont think its a deception.

The EU is not wonderful and is a black hole of money.

When asked to fight for it and justify membership to the British public those in favour failed.

They are still failing and the only traction seems to be framing the argument as some form of good vs evil.  

One way or the other it wont end well and least the EU will not be to blame next time around.

I do not agree there is nothing better GDP maybe.  For some people maybe yes there will be benefits and for others maybe they just where sick of their current situation and thought ****** it lets give the government a black eye.

Crime is already rocketing and we have not left yet can you promise a reversal of Brexit will reduce it?

Can you promise no businesses will go under and a recession will never happen if we stay?

Happy people would not have voted for Brexit

Edited July 21, 2019 by Fromage Frais

[jonb2]

5 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

I dont think its a deception.

The EU is not wonderful and is a black hole of money.

When asked to fight for it and justify membership to the British public those in favour failed.

They are still failing and the only traction seems to be framing the argument as some form of good vs evil.  

One way or the other it wont end well and least the EU will not be to blame next time around.

I do not agree there is nothing better GDP maybe.  For some people maybe yes there will be benefits and for others maybe they just where sick of their current situation and thought ****** it lets give the government a black eye.

Crime is already rocketing and we have not left yet can you promise a reversal of Brexit will reduce it?

Can you promise no businesses will go under and a recession will never happen if we stay?

Happy people would not have voted for Brexit

All of these woes are not addressed by Brexit are they FF? I am no apologist for the EU, it has big problems. But I've consistently argued that it's the damage to this country which should concentrate the mind. We'll be on the hook regardless if the EU has economic collapse.

I never said it was about GDP. I said it was about the real quality of life. The poorer the country gets - the more society will be up-ended. But it won't effect the super-rich and their courtiers. Who are the right people to blame for 100% of the shit we are in now.

Sucking out a huge sum of money from the country does not give the government a black eye. It is hara-kiri for the man on the street. It's the Kool-Aid given to the Jamestown cult believers.

The master manipulators will still voraciously blame the EU for everything long after we leave. Brexit only legitimises this more.

Yup, it's a deception.

[dugsbody]

3 hours ago, Bruce Banner said:

Is this joker really going to be our next prime minister?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/darius-boris-and-a-blast-from-the-past-1658043.html

 

Fingers crossed, he will. 

Rock the kasbah, we need people like Boris willing to sell us out and burn everything we've built up over generations. The people didn't vote for the status quo.

[IMHAL]

48 minutes ago, crouch said:

Do they?

 

As I can't tell the future I have no idea.

 

Being interested is a good thing; coming to the wrong conclusions less so.

So what data/evidence, if anything, is required for you to make a decison about the future that will cause you to take action or to change your course today?  

[dugsbody]

3 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

All of these woes are not addressed by Brexit are they FF? I am no apologist for the EU, it has big problems. But I've consistently argued that it's the damage to this country which should concentrate the mind. We'll be on the hook regardless if the EU has economic collapse.

I never said it was about GDP. I said it was about the real quality of life. The poorer the country gets - the more society will be up-ended. But it won't effect the super-rich and their courtiers. Who are the right people to blame for 100% of the shit we are in now.

Sucking out a huge sum of money from the country does not give the government a black eye. It is hara-kiri for the man on the street. It's the Kool-Aid given to the Jamestown cult believers.

The master manipulators will still voraciously blame the EU for everything long after we leave. Brexit only legitimises this more.

Yup, it's a deception.

The world moves in cycles.

Most brexiters are not idiots, but they are acting in an idiotic manner. They're doing what humans have always done and when they're discontent, they look for easy answers. When our rabidly anti-EU tabloid press (the worst tabloid type press in the developed world imo) as well as a concoction of disaster capitalists and nationalists start shoving propaganda in their face, which presents a nice easy target to blame, they take it. 

It is what humans always do.

So, the UK will have to go through this. We'll learn our lesson over a decade and we'll then swing back to a more progressive, less nationalist view.

It's a shame for the youth of this country have already had a decade of inequality in outcomes from previous policies while the older generations have benefited, now have to suffer the further consequences of another vote mostly supported by older generations.

[crouch]

14 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

So what data/evidence, if anything, is required for you to make a decison about the future that will cause you to take action or to change your course today?  

Sticking to economics, which is what Remainers do if you do a snapshot of GDP at a particular point the figure is determined by seasonal, cyclical and secular trends. The secular trend is the trend that is long term and takes some time to change. Forgetting the seasonal and cyclical a useful proxy for GDP growth is population growth plus productivity.

Population growth for the next ten years is 0.5% - 0.6%.

Productivity has bombed in the last ten years; 1980 - 2005 it was 2 - 2.5% pa; last ten years it around 0.2%.

Add these two together and you get a secular trend rate of 0.7% compared to previous periods when it would be around 2.0 - 2.5% (population plus productivity). Even if you make heroic assumptions about future productivity you'll struggle to get above 1 - 1.5% growth. Furthermore it's likely that any growth number will be debt constrained.

So we maybe have a trend rate of growth of around 1% - being optimists at heart. How will Brexit affect this number? Well, and tongue in cheek and somewhat amusingly, as Remainers predict economic Armageddon then this might actually help to clear out zombie firms a la Joseph Schumpeter's gales of creative destruction. This might well boost productivity as it clears out inefficient firms.

Furthermore, the fact that we're alone in the World without nanny, a prey to every country that wants to take advantage of poor us, maybe we'll be forced to shape up our competitive act which again may boost productivity, that is if we can wean ourselves off the begging bowl.

On the other hand Brexit may mean that we'll be in an even worse shape. Who knows?

Choose your poison.

[pig]

2 hours ago, crouch said:

You've quoted two figures. Presumably they refer to "facts" although I've no idea what those "facts"

No deal will cause disruption, there's not much doubt about that, and it may be significant.

But "We do nearly 60% of our trade to and through the EU. The TRUTH of no-deal is that it stops overnight".

Do you really, honestly and truly believe that it will stop completely after 31 October? And for how long will it stop? And will it be a total cessation - both imports and exports? 

This is just the sort of Alice in Wonderland, hysterical, hyperbole BS that demeans the debate on this issue. There's a good case against no deal but to pretend that everything comes to a complete stop after 31 October is really the most egregious nonsense.

What are the advantages of inflicting economic sanctions on ourselves ?

What are the disadvantages ?

[crouch]

1 minute ago, pig said:

What are the advantages of inflicting economic sanctions on ourselves ?

What are the disadvantages ?

What sanctions?

[pig]

19 hours ago, crouch said:

If you are one of 28 you have to compromise. If you are on your own you have to compromise. You'd prefer to compromise within the EU; I'd prefer to compromise from without.

Well yes - all 200 odd countries in the world have to compromise.  The question is which compromise gives you the most leverage in your national interest.

Hence, RW America doesn't like multilateral arrangements because it would rather pick off smaller countries and boss them around.

Don't you think thats rather unfortunate for Leaver strategy ?

19 hours ago, crouch said:

 

The strong/weak dichotomy doesn't exist; everyone has to compromise.

Well, Leavers have spent 3 years failing to persuade the world we are weaker in the EU but stronger outside it. Its more than dichotomy it verges on cognitive dissonance.

To be honest its probably more about 'nationalism' as an end in itself and feck everything else so I've never had high or frankly any expectations there was any interest in the Leaver side for resolving 'dichotomies' in their arguments.

19 hours ago, crouch said:

 

We could be at the beginning of de-globalisation in which case a great many things may change in the next few years.In particular. 

Pax Americana is getting dimmer.

You can therefore see why the Kremlin is keen on both Trump and Brexit.

19 hours ago, crouch said:

Glad to see you're coming round to my point of view.

My views on BJ and DT are probably quite close to yours.

[pig]

18 minutes ago, crouch said:

What sanctions?

Brexit.

[winkie]

28 minutes ago, crouch said:

What sanctions?

Sanity will prevail...nothing is perfect, but some things are more perfect than others.

Edited July 21, 2019 by winkie

[dugsbody]

8 minutes ago, pig said:

Well, Leavers have spent 3 years failing to persuade the world we are weaker in the EU but stronger outside it. Its more than dichotomy it verges on cognitive dissonance.

I find it strange that people are still trying. 

Ultimately these arguments in favour of brexit because of trade deals and EU laws are meaningless. They are not the root cause people voted out of the EU, they're post-hoc nonsensical inventions tagged on to already made up minds, so arguing about them is pointless.

Edited July 21, 2019 by dugsbody

[crouch]

14 minutes ago, pig said:

Don't you think thats rather unfortunate for Leaver strategy ?

If countries sign a trade agreement one has to assume they've decided it's in their mutual interest. 

16 minutes ago, pig said:

To be honest its probably more about 'nationalism' as an end in itself and feck everything else so I've never had high or frankly any expectations there was any interest in the Leaver side for resolving 'dichotomies' in their arguments.

I'm glad you're not disappointed.

 

17 minutes ago, pig said:

You can therefore see why the Kremlin is keen on both Trump and Brexit.

Indeed.

[crouch]

19 minutes ago, pig said:

Brexit.

Sanctions are a threatened penalty. That assumes what is required to be demonstrated.

[crouch]

20 minutes ago, winkie said:

Sanity will prevail...nothing is perfect, but some things are more perfect than others.

Look the EU is a big nanny; of course Remainers have to protect their view of it; it's only natural; unfortunate, but natural.

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, crouch said:

Look the EU is a big nanny; of course Remainers have to protect their view of it; it's only natural; unfortunate, but natural.

....so we do not have total control whilst within the EU.....do you honestly think we will have any more control if/when we leave?....one way or another....everyone needs friends.

 

[crouch]

1 minute ago, winkie said:

....so we do not have total control whilst within the EU.....do you honestly think we will have any more control if/when we leave?....one way or another....everyone needs friends.

 

We will see.

BTW I didn't think you would have GG on YT in view of his history.

 

[Bruce Banner]

10 minutes ago, crouch said:

Look the EU is a big nanny; of course Remainers have to protect their view of it; it's only natural; unfortunate, but natural.

I accept that the EU can be a nanny  https://ec.europa.eu/transport/road_safety/topics/vehicles/seat_belts_en  but our nanny state introduced seat belt compulsion years before the EU mandated this affront to civil liberty, so they're well behind the curve.