Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[GrizzlyDave]

10 hours ago, pig said:

Thanks for this really interesting read.

However I’d already caveated Orwells definitions and couldn’t disagree more with your assertion - not least because this very article clearly admires Orwell’s insight and ‘genius’ and sees his views as a critical  reference point for  discussion on this subject. That is in fact the whole point of the article.

However probably not by coincidence  his key criticism is over ‘terminology’, that there is a more complex landscape  to the word ‘Nationalism’: specifically he cites ‘liberal’ nationalism - spoiler alert, this has little to do with Brexits manifestations whether it be complaining about Somalian rapists, @GrizzlyDave’s veggie burgers (followed by Orwell lol!) or incessant warped/tendentious appraisals of the EU and our relation to it. In fact - it goes a long way to diagnosing where all the madness of Brexit is coming from.

Similarly, he’s not fond of Orwell’s use of ‘patriotism’, although with his liberal nationalism he’s still basically following the basic pattern of ‘good’ vs ‘bad’ attachment to your country.

Perhaps a more profound idea is that somehow without the ground support of a ‘liberal nationalism’ people might be vulnerable to many of the aberrations we’re seeing now - and as somebody whose been banging on about the bizarre wilful credulity of many Leavers reading his explanations was a kind of relief !

 

You mean veggie discs.

[GrizzlyDave]

2 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Irish border issue is nothing to do with any of that. 

I thought Schrodinger’s Border was a good term.

A border which exists (on paper) but doesn’t in the physical; apart from a change in tarmac texture and road signs in KPH.

I respect Irish reunification views, as I respect Irish unionists views.

However I abhor the use of violence to attempt to win an argument.

[crouch]

5 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

It’s without doubt the most articulate anti EU speech and his words still resonate today. Tony Benn is also good.

 

What Shore does is base his case on sovereignty not on economics; the economics is used to scare people but the contra case is political not economic.

Heath lied to the people when he said that our national sovereignty would not be impaired. However, I'm inclined to acquit him because I believe what was at the back of his mind was that we would find a better place as a large fish in a big pond rather than as a smaller fish on our own; it was part of the post imperial adjustment.

[GrizzlyDave]

36 minutes ago, crouch said:

I believe the result would still be close; the remainers think remain is a shoe in: it isn't.

I think that we are moving away from it being about leave/remain.

Now it is about democracy, and parliment following the will of the people.

Another referendum would be based on hree years of parliment’s failure to deliver.

On that basis I think we would win.

[GrizzlyDave]

10 minutes ago, crouch said:

What Shore does is base his case on sovereignty not on economics; the economics is used to scare people but the contra case is political not economic.

Heath lied to the people when he said that our national sovereignty would not be impaired. However, I'm inclined to acquit him because I believe what was at the back of his mind was that we would find a better place as a large fish in a big pond rather than as a smaller fish on our own; it was part of the post imperial adjustment.

For me the original concept of the EEC worked well.

A group of similar countries clubbing together. But it moved beyond an economic union into a manifestly political union whilst failing to take/consult people in that journey.

I see a clear outcome being the USofE. It could also go pop. Either way we are better off out...

[Spindler]

14 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

No, I don't think you are, but it's interesting that you jumped to that example.  Is it the feeling of England becoming a tiny part of a globalised English-speaking world that gives us the sense of losing our identity, more so than being part of Europe (as we always have been)?

I think its the massive immigration in the uk that does that nothing to do with being part of a globalised english speaking world....if i keep topping up my pint of beer with something other than beer at some point its no longer beer is it ! I taught myself German from a very young age and have spent a huge amount of time in Germany ....to the point Austrians and Swiss detect a German accent mixed with an English one..sometimes just the German one..sometimes Germans don't even pick up on the English accent....if they detect an accent they think any other country other than the UK because its not common to come across German speaking Brits....but underneath all that I'm what they imagine a Brit to be(if you take out the benidorm crowd). ButI'm thinking TPTB have for their own rotten ends sold out the people of this country and it is past the tipping point and short of a new civil war this country will just degrade into a soulless menagerie.....previous immigration warned about by enoch powell sort of homogenised into something we are all familiar with..and comfortable with...be they from india or the caribbean...then it went too far..Bradford as an example but the immigration in the last 10-15 esp white eastern europeans has changed this country irrevocably.....it makes me utterly angry when i hear of people coming from the 4 corners of this world to get a council flat in London...to retire..on our dime...or the romanians who rocked up with 7 children demandig to be housed and they were.....Hitcchens was right this country is finished

[pig]

44 minutes ago, crouch said:

But is it clearer? As you have said the second - would be - referendum is just about leaving and no more (ballot paper: remain; May's deal: no deal?).

But leaving isn't that important; it's the long term relationship that is important and that has yet to be negotiated or even defined. What would such a referendum be about? It can't be about the experience of leaving because we haven't left so just what is a second referendum about?

Yes of course it’s clearer and we’re all a lot more informed. Irrespective of Mays ‘blank cheque’ the putative second ref would be about our long term relationship - even the first was. Tbf you can’t ‘define’ the future you can only propose the direction you are heading in.

Currently a lot of the Leave contingent are trying to shape our future arrangements with the EU around blame and antagonism - perhaps no change there ! But they are now pivoting away from debunked pre-referendum promises and, for example, pumping out ads around ‘no deal’.

That is allied to the ERG’s preferred outcome  which is in danger of eclipsing it’s host party, whose long term relationship has been roughly defined by Mays red lines.

Labours is currently about cooperation and maintaining a close relationship - but is unlikely to make it onto a 2nd referendum other than through amendments to Mays deal - or a GE.

[GrizzlyDave]

1 minute ago, pig said:

 Tbf you can’t ‘define’ the future you can only propose the direction you are heading in.

 

[Bruce Banner]

So what happens now?

On past performance, nothing until 24th October when May announces that if MPs don't accept her original deal, the UK will leave on WTO terms at the end of the week.

[pig]

2 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

 

Yes of course - I’ve no doubt there are plenty of people who like the idea of a USE.  Plenty who want the EU to break up also. Plenty who like it as it is. Plenty who would like to reform it.

[pig]

Dupe

Edited April 13, 2019 by pig

[ZeroSumGame]

On 08/04/2019 at 15:15, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

 

?    Steady as she goes.... Aye Aye Captain (Ahab).  Ahahaahahahahahahahahahaha....

[pig]

11 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

So what happens now?

On past performance, nothing until 24th October when May announces that if MPs don't accept her original deal, the UK will leave on WTO terms at the end of the week.

Tbf that will be after meaningful vote 24

[GrizzlyDave]

35 minutes ago, pig said:

Yes of course - I’ve no doubt there are plenty of people who like the idea of a USE.  Plenty who want the EU to break up also. Plenty who like it as it is. Plenty who would like to reform it.

That's true.

But the leading voices and people including power want, amongst other things;

- an army

- an aircraft carrier

- a single foreign policy

- an overall president of the EU

- a USofE

—

So I look at who is actually in power and has true power and what they want; and base my views upon that.

[pig]

50 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

So what happens now?

On past performance, nothing until 24th October when May announces that if MPs don't accept her original deal, the UK will leave on WTO terms at the end of the week.

Tbf that will be after meaningful vote 24

[pig]

16 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

That's true.

But the leading voices and people including power want, amongst other things;

- an army

- an aircraft carrier

- a single foreign policy

- an overall president of the EU

- a USofE

—

So I look at who is actually in power and has true power and what they want; and base my views upon that.

Good for them and best of luck if that’s what they want - I’m not against it although it does seem pretty unlikely .

WRT us We’ve wedged ourselves in a highly privileged position INSIDE the EU but OUTSIDE of any USE. But hey, we’re British - before Leave got hold of us we had the smarts to carve out a place in the world.

You want to throw away those near certainties because of a peculiar hysteria over the USE.

I’ll admit anything could happen of course: walk around long enough and a piano could fall on your head. Difficult to see the benefit of a lifetime sprinting between bus shelters though.

[crouch]

1 hour ago, pig said:

Yes of course it’s clearer and we’re all a lot more informed. Irrespective of Mays ‘blank cheque’ the putative second ref would be about our long term relationship - even the first was. Tbf you can’t ‘define’ the future you can only propose the direction you are heading in.

Currently a lot of the Leave contingent are trying to shape our future arrangements with the EU around blame and antagonism - perhaps no change there ! But they are now pivoting away from debunked pre-referendum promises and, for example, pumping out ads around ‘no deal’.

That is allied to the ERG’s preferred outcome  which is in danger of eclipsing it’s host party, whose long term relationship has been roughly defined by Mays red lines.

Labours is currently about cooperation and maintaining a close relationship - but is unlikely to make it onto a 2nd referendum other than through amendments to Mays deal - or a GE.

Well' it's clearer because we're three years further on but is it clearer in the sense of knowing where the ultimate destination will be? It cannot be because that destination has yet to be defined and agreed with the EU. How can you have a referendum on something that has not been agreed with the EU? It's what we may want not what is actually on offer in legal form.

As I interpret ERG what they want is no deal as an unequivocal means of leaving and with tabula rasa on the long term relationship. In some ways it is deceptive because we will still be on the hook for the £39 bn and it doesn't get us round the backstop (although I believe that will disappear).

[rollover]

2 hours ago, crouch said:

And for those who want a "Peoples Vote" 2019 gives a better chance of winning a referendum with Remain on the ballot paper. Never! It's because circumstances have changed not because we stand a better chance than in 2016 - and because we want one anyway because we deserve it! How dare you suggest such a thing!

Democracy, isn't it?

One could just wonder, what May promised for 6 months extension.

It's hard to believe it was just goodwill gesture from EU.

[crouch]

1 hour ago, GrizzlyDave said:

For me the original concept of the EEC worked well.

A group of similar countries clubbing together. But it moved beyond an economic union into a manifestly political union whilst failing to take/consult people in that journey.

I see a clear outcome being the USofE. It could also go pop. Either way we are better off out...

Agreed. Furthermore as our economy is based on services the EU has been much less successful in freeing these up within the SM; in fact I believe the growth rate of services within the SM is no different than outside.

Also the EU has been far more concerned with creating a level (German) playing field in removing discrimination than enhancing competitiveness vis a vis the ROW.

As to a USof E I think this is a non starter. Although the Commission may be wedded to this destination opinion polls in Germany have I believe tended to emphasise the journey rather than the destination.

The problem is the Euro which does require fiscal union but here is the clash beween what may be necessry and what is possible and it is that conundrum which could sink the EU.

[crouch]

1 minute ago, rollover said:

Democracy, isn't it?

One could just wonder, what May promised for 6 months extension.

It's hard to believe it was just goodwill gesture from EU.

See my post to pig above.

[rollover]

2 hours ago, moneyfornothing said:

If you knew that a first referendum didn’t matter because there would be a second one ... what do you think would happen to participation in future referenda ?

Disappointed Brexiters presence will be lower and excited remainers will take part in record numbers.

My guess is difference 20% or more in favour of remain.

[pig]

3 minutes ago, crouch said:

Well' it's clearer because we're three years further on but is it clearer in the sense of knowing where the ultimate destination will be? It cannot be because that destination has yet to be defined and agreed with the EU. How can you have a referendum on something that has not been agreed with the EU? It's what we may want not what is actually on offer in legal form.

As I interpret ERG what they want is no deal as an unequivocal means of leaving and with tabula rasa on the long term relationship. In some ways it is deceptive because we will still be on the hook for the £39 bn and it doesn't get us round the backstop (although I believe that will disappear).

 

I think they want 'no deal' firstly because there is no easily defensible Brexit and secondly from that position we would have lost all leverage /trust with the EU.

Becoming US's b1tch or the variety of relatively useless deals from that position wouldn't seem such a step down as coming from being an EU elite.

In conjunction with that, the Tabula Rasa they want is more extensive - eg bye bye NHS.

I agree that the destination has yet to be. defined and agreed - but in reality...

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-options/stairway-to-brexit-barnier-maps-out-uks-canadian-path-idUKKBN1ED23R

...the conservatives aren't offering much choice, just bad or worse.

'No Deal': Totally fecked, international reputation in tatters, USA's b1tch  - pretend its all the EU's fault deny any responsibility (needs quotes because there is no such thing)

Mays Deal: Miserable, Turkey and the RoW bemused -  glass half full: its a compromise, half empty: leave lied, Brexit bad

Mays Amended Deal: ? Salvage operation

Labours Brexit: A bit worse off, a bit weaker, Norway+ more Salvage Operation, more space for lefty policies ?  (but No 2nd ref prospect, only if a GE)

Remain:  Embarrassing but solid. Probably accompanied by considered change, internally or with the EU -  rather than forced by circumstance or extremists !

 

...and my choice is: Revoke this sh1t and start again

 

 

 

[pig]

2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

 

You mean veggie discs.

Lol - veggie frisbees

[GrizzlyDave]

Here’s an interesting graph.... What should we do according to these results?

Do you favour leaving the EU with no deal, leaving the EU with Theresa May’s Deal, leaving the EU but remaining in the Single Market/Customs Union, or remaining in the EU / revoking Article 50?

Field work dates: 4 April 2019 - 8 April 2019 https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-favour-leaving-the-eu-with-no-deal-leaving-the-eu-with-theresa-mays-deal-leaving-the-eu-but-remaining-in-the-single-market-customs-union-or-remaining-in-the-eu-revoking-article-50/

[GrizzlyDave]

23 minutes ago, pig said:

Lol - veggie frisbees

The EU commission has already told you the correct terminology to use.

 

https://www.euronews.com/2019/04/04/veggie-burgers-at-risk-of-losing-burger-status

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/food-and-drink/goodbye-veggie-burgers-hello-veggie-discs-crackdown-on-food-labels-1.3850533?mode=amp

Edited April 13, 2019 by GrizzlyDave