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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Spindler

  1. how can any vested interest be allowed to produce without oversight an indicator of price movement on the asset they are vested in ?
  2. we had 52% ...we leave..as for the first part have you been at the scotch winkie ? 90% as if any party or vote has achieved that...single or double malt ?
  3. you miss something Pop...you are prudent in your investments....and the trend was also your friend in recent years....some mug buys a house with borrowed money and it retraces 80%....he is screwed.....he has negative equity he owns less than nothing...you cannot apply your situation to others
  4. 2023 after 3 brutal years that will make the 90's look a picnic...the only way out is inflation...inc wage inflation and that aint happening....wha i believed is on course peak end 2015..its playing out as i expected so far... we are turning japanese as they did in the late 80's.....property will be considered a toxic asset...in the 90's everyone lost their hard on for property until Brown released the credit spigot...next time there is no way back for decades
  5. credit can be good it allows those without the money to buy to buy those who have cash to make a return...except now its got totally and utterly out of hand/// Credit used to oil the wheels now it enslaves..it;s probbly the worst in history,,,student loans...house prices..hte only way to win is not to play: The computer figured out the only way to win is not to play.....we on HPC...have figured that out...
  6. i was dismayed from 2012 to 2015 but that sugar rush from HTB is practically over...... and MMR and S24 are making and going to make the wheels come off... The HTB crowd are mostly likely in negative equity and that will worsen to horrific levels
  7. I do not agree with you and believe you are talking up your own book....there will always be exceptions to the rule....mate 237k from 305k asking....taken 2 years to sell...i hate leasehold...but it's one of the few i would consider...near station near town near the river.....many houses around here can't even get viewings let alone offers....mate had 2 sales fall through on the flat.... This has only just begun...prices peaked end 2015....with MMR BTL to up their exit at least the leveraged crowd....its big falls ahead....2023 willlook like the 90's but worse...
  8. perhaps you can provide something that provides confirmation of Nationwide's solid basis of data ?
  9. After the 29 crash property and land fell to cents on the dollar...because there was no credit ! Most houses are bought with credit ...prices are discovered on the margins(actual sales) if you don;t have the money in cash or the credit...you cannot pay...or the price comes down to meet what you can raise the sales that happen on the margins set the benchmark.....as it ticks lower the credit dries up as the lenders get nervous...sentiment changes.....self perpetuating this is where we are now.....imagine where we''ll be in 3 years time ? As SpyGuy will tell you MMR changes what is coming out of the lending spigot massively... This baby has been blown as much as she can be...the peak is behind us end 2015 circa.....it's all downhill from now Louise ! No matter what spin vested interests like Nationwide or Halifax try and put on it
  10. On a lighter note I can't help but think of Nicolas Parsons everytime I see Barnier ?
  11. yes agreed HTB distorts the stats.....those buyers of new builds with HTB will rue the day though....instant negative equity now....a few years down the line willl be brutal as prices correct
  12. just a few years back in Manchester area someone i know newish build 4 beds detached...had terrible trouble selling...because no subsidies or assistance...all the buyers were off to the BRAND NEW builds down the road
  13. yes but that's just new builds so away from new builds it will be a completely different picture.....
  14. " Despite a brief up-tick in most figures for the past four months the clearly obvious trend in growth and prices is obviously down, down, down to anyone with half a brain. " That's just the gloss they are putting on it...the real world stats will be much different.....they are probably struggling to manipulate it and keep it positive without just completely making it up in fear of getting caught out...perhaps by some whistleblower or a separate entity
  15. good points.....so it's totally ok for a lender to talk up its own book with a load of lies to manipulate that sentiment in spite of the realities without fear of being held to account.....so all house price indices are very very suspect....because in the world of securities..bonds equities there are rules but with house prices ..zilch Falling prices lead to the scary prospect of having to revalue their loan book.....hence they are a biased source of information and not to be trusted.... I agree what you say about the joe in the street but i suspect they have stretched this elastic as far as its going...people are now not believing tradtional sources be they govt or institutions...... When these lemons below are not getting any viewings because the price is obviously too high..sentiment must be changing
  16. fair enough..but the Eu are not exactly helping much are they ? Right from day one before the referendum when that overgown schoolboy cameron went to the Eu and came back with Nada.....they paved the way for a LEAVE vote....no wonder so many want to see the back of them regardless of difficulty or consequences....
  17. I have been involved with indices data...FTSE MSCI...DAX etc....the penalties for adulterating data would be severe....are there any independent checks of/or are there any penalties regarding what NW produce ? Is it possible it is actually a total load of manipulated ********s under the guise of a reliable index ?
  18. why the fuss over what I suspect are these bogus numbers from a vested interest ? NW (a mutual apparently) deep into BTL isn't going to talk down it's vested interest....that's the route to being insolvent on the assets tied to it's loans.....it will happen regardless but don;t expect any help from them......
  19. Well if Vodafone disappeared...no loss the others would take up the slack....btw i lost money on this dog.....but i quit much higher than they arre now... Imperial Brands...i won;t invest in evil on point of principal Centrica....have had business dealings with them....they have a twisted ideology ..i won;t bore you Got caught out with Royal Mail and cut my losses when it had a retracement the same week it lost more than a quid per share...Royal Mail are an important part of UK life.....mega drop 500p to 200p i n a year...glad i bugged out...followed Buffet and Livermore.....don;t delay get out
  20. from the link: In 1993, Osborne intended to pursue a career in journalism. He was shortlisted for, but failed to gain a place on, The Times' trainee scheme; he also applied to The Economist, where he was interviewed and rejected by Gideon Rachman.[14] In the end, he had to settle for freelance work on the 'Peterborough' diary column in The Daily Telegraph.[15] One of his Oxford friends, journalist George Bridges, alerted Osborne some time later to a research vacancy at Conservative Central Office.[1 George Osborne was born in Paddington, London,[1] as Gideon Oliver Osborne;[2] he decided when he was 13 to be known by the additional first name of 'George'. In an interview in July 2005, he said: "It was my small act of rebellion. I never liked it [the name 'Gideon']. When I finally told my mother she said, 'Nor do I'. So after all that failure in journalism he goes straight to being Editor of the Evening Standard !!!!!!!! if he had kept the name Gideon perhaps Gideon Rachman would have accepted him and we would have been spared Help to Buy and a chancellor who said on the Marr show " we know we have to pay off the deficit" a chancellor who doesnt know the difference between deficit and debt....not that they have any possibility or intention of paying off the debt... I have a sneaking suspicion this is actually what his mother said: "It was my small act of rebellion. I never liked it [the name 'Gideon']. When I finally told my mother she said, 'Nor do I'. " I kind of liked it when I gave it to you but now i associate the name with you I don't like it anymore !
  21. I see this is an old thread resurrected......anyone who buys property now with borrowed money is a fool.....it's just not worth it....the days of capital gains are gone.....there have been 2 lots of this 99-07.....12-end 15.......the second one definitely should not have happened because of the first...and the first should not have happened as it did. But these things happened but now....with peaked prices.....nope...prices are and will fall.....what with Brexit uncertainty...rates that can really only go one way.....it's a fools errand.... If this house of cards hasnt collapsed under its own weight(and it is) by 2023 then I will be very very surprised.....why take the risk inside 3 years ? It's simply not worth it
  22. yes that would be what they call a FIX...there would have been outrage at such a suggestion... I don't disagree with your second paragraph. at all...its something I have always thought......the language in some way is a shield to what is quite an alien culture.....and its still a huge culture shock....goodness only knows how it hits those from mainland Europe whose English isnt first rate..... Unless they are spanish and in miami where it seems to me English is the second language....it's quite staggering how many immigrants from south america cannot speak English and the worst place was Miami International Airport......there are people behind counters who cannot understand "when is this flight boarding(because they don;t show it on the board).... Had a few chats with Uber drivers(Hispanic) who are always they say berating their friends for not learning English...... You can google this...in Miami if you don't speak English and Spanish you are at a severe disadvantage in the job market.....
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