Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Confusion of VIs]

6 minutes ago, prozac said:

What is your opinion of his chance of becoming the PM

Your guess is as good as mine. It depends on whether her gets onto the final ballot and there will be a lot of manoeuvring from anti Boris MPs to try and stop that.

However, the possible permutations are many and he could still make it through to the membership vote, where he would be a strong favorite to win.   

[Kosmin]

23 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

The 1975 vote was not a vote to join.

It was a vote to remain.

So the idea of two years negotiating how to remain doesn't make sense. I don't think there has been another referendum like this one. That's why there is so much controversy.

[Sledgehead]

17 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Ironically, even in the USA, they haven't completely got rid of the Confederate flag, and the various states have their own identity still. The descendants of slaves don't like that flag as it was the flag of their former slave masters. It's hard to believe Europeans feel the same way about the Union Flag.

Interesting tone youi have struck when you say "ironically". The confederate flag was merely the banner those opposing federal rule fought under. That makes it entirely equivalent to the use of the Union Jack by those who do not wish to adopt the EU flag as their banner. What you have said could easily be rewritten 20 years hence in a federal Europe as "Ironically, even in the EU, they haven't completely got rid of the Union Jack."

As to various States having their own identity, sure. Tennessee, proud home of Country Music and sour mash wiskey is seen as hick and quaint - kinda like Scotland really. In fact anywhere central is pretty much derided and mocked ("Rednecks!") by the east and West coasts and their mega-cities, which are the only things apart from the 'Nation-as-a-whole' that retain any real international cultural significance.

[yelims]

17 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

What is a ham cut?

In your case it's a cut of gammon 

[localhero1983]

4 minutes ago, yelims said:

In your case it's a cut of gammon 

How do you mean my case, explain?  You are not making any sense

 

[Sledgehead]

25 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

How do you mean my case, explain?  You are not making any sense

 

it's casual racism.

if you have self-respect it won't touch you.

[Dorkins]

8 hours ago, Habeas Domus said:

Any referendum with 3 options is doomed because what would happen if the vote went something like
24% - no deal
28% - Chequers deal
48% - Remain
The remainers would claim a victory of 20%, while leavers would claim that 24+28 = 52%
It would cause chaos, or more chaos that we already have.

...which is why the 3 way referendum should be single transferable vote, which would guarantee that the winning option would receive at least 50%+1 of first and second preferences.

[Dorkins]

6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There is no agreement about what a hard Brexit is

Of course there is, hard Brexit is leaving both the customs union and the single market.

[Kosmin]

40 minutes ago, Sledgehead said:

Interesting tone you have struck when you say "ironically". The confederate flag was merely the banner those opposing federal rule fought under. That makes it entirely equivalent to the use of the Union Jack by those who do not wish to adopt the EU flag as their banner. What you have said could easily be rewritten 20 years hence in a federal Europe as "Ironically, even in the EU, they haven't completely got rid of the Union Jack."

The confederate flag was also about opposing to ending slavery. Maybe some Irish people feel this way about the Union Flag, but I can't see any other Europeans having reason to find it so upsetting.

I thought it was ironic as Europe seems to have made no attempt yet to get rid of national flags. Even if it becomes one federal state, I don't see why national flags will disappear, as they haven't in the USA.

 

45 minutes ago, Sledgehead said:

As to various States having their own identity, sure. Tennessee, proud home of Country Music and sour mash wiskey is seen as hick and quaint - kinda like Scotland really. In fact anywhere central is pretty much derided and mocked ("Rednecks!") by the east and West coasts and their mega-cities, which are the only things apart from the 'Nation-as-a-whole' that retain any real international cultural significance.

The heartland mocks the coastal areas as well. I don't really see what difference this makes. The point is the differences still exist.

[localhero1983]

Still non the wiser.

Is it just more of his silly nonsense?

 

PS   I am white British by the way

Edited December 9, 2018 by localhero1983

[GrizzlyDave]

50 minutes ago, Sledgehead said:

Interesting tone youi have struck when you say "ironically". The confederate flag was merely the banner those opposing federal rule fought under. That makes it entirely equivalent to the use of the Union Jack by those who do not wish to adopt the EU flag as their banner. What you have said could easily be rewritten 20 years hence in a federal Europe as "Ironically, even in the EU, they haven't completely got rid of the Union Jack."

As to various States having their own identity, sure. Tennessee, proud home of Country Music and sour mash wiskey is seen as hick and quaint - kinda like Scotland really. In fact anywhere central is pretty much derided and mocked ("Rednecks!") by the east and West coasts and their mega-cities, which are the only things apart from the 'Nation-as-a-whole' that retain any real international cultural significance.

I always thought red necks referred to the Southern States (Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Florida).

[Kosmin]

10 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

...which is why the 3 way referendum should be single transferable vote, which would guarantee that the winning option would receive at least 50%+1 of first and second preferences.

That's far too sensible! The British people decided in 2011 that they didn't want a more sensible voting system. It would be undemocratic to either use one or ask them again if they wanted one.

[simvastatin]

3 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

Still non the wiser.

Is it just more of his silly nonsense?

 

PS   I am white British by the way

He is being racist, ignore it.

[Kosmin]

1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I always thought red necks referred to the Southern States (Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Florida).

Yes and not everyone from those areas are rednecks. Similarly there are hillbillies in states like Kentucky and Virginia, but it's the poor, rural parts. I'm not sure what the slurs are for the Midwest. I think the culture wars are a distraction really.

[localhero1983]

10 minutes ago, prozac said:

He is being racist, ignore it.

I seriously do not have a clue what is going on, is it a joke I am not in on?

[localhero1983]

3 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Yes and not everyone from those areas are rednecks. Similarly there are hillbillies in states like Kentucky and Virginia, but it's the poor, rural parts. I'm not sure what the slurs are for the Midwest. I think the culture wars are a distraction really.

People from Virginia are the warmest friendliest people you can imagine, though some of their views on religion and politics take some getting used to, But Hey!, who am I to judge

[simvastatin]

4 minutes ago, localhero1983 said:

I seriously do not have a clue what is going on, is it a joke I am not in on?

It is a racist slur, it is very very new, and i have only heard it on this site, maybe that is why you have never heard it.

It might disappear into obscurity....

Edited December 9, 2018 by prozac

[Kosmin]

8 minutes ago, prozac said:

It is a racist slur, it is very very new, and i have only heard it on this site, maybe that is why you have never heard it.

It might disappear into obscurity....

"The time had been, when this burst of enthusiasm would have been cheered to the very echo; but now, the deputation received it with chilling coldness. The general impression seemed to be, that as an explanation of Mr. Gregsbury’s political conduct, it did not enter quite enough into detail; and one gentleman in the rear did not scruple to remark aloud, that, for his purpose, it savoured rather too much of a 'gammon' tendency.

The meaning of that term—gammon,' said Mr. Gregsbury, 'is unknown to me. If it means that I grow a little too fervid, or perhaps even hyperbolical, in extolling my native land, I admit the full justice of the remark. I am proud of this free and happy country. My form dilates, my eye glistens, my breast heaves, my heart swells, my bosom burns, when I call to mind her greatness and her glory"

Nicholas Nickleby, Dickens, 1838.

[Confusion of VIs]

36 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Of course there is, hard Brexit is leaving both the customs union and the single market.

What about the dozens of other issues that are still up for debate.

Is it pure WTO terms or will we try to have a FTA with the EU.

Will we trade access to our fishing grounds for say aviation rights

Will we keep mutual recognition of qualifications with the EU

Etc, etc, etc 

[Habeas Domus]

1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

...which is why the 3 way referendum should be single transferable vote, which would guarantee that the winning option would receive at least 50%+1 of first and second preferences.

The problem with that is you may get a lot of brexiters voting tactictly for Hard exit as first choice just to try and stop it from being removed in the first round, but with the un-intended effect it actually ends up winning.

I doubt any politicians will feel like spinning the dice again on a referendum where 2 of the 3 options will give the "wrong" answer. 50:50 odds is risky enough.

[Peter Hun]

52 minutes ago, prozac said:

He is being racist, ignore it.

No, he's calling them thick. Quite accurately, given the response. 

[pig]

2 hours ago, Sledgehead said:

And here we have the Premiere league, a world beating music scene, a legal system Russian oligarchs seek refuge in, a language that allows almost any of us to rock up anywhere as a TEFL teacher, theatre that attracts Hollywood A-listers etc, etc, etc

How do you see that playing out once we are subsumed into the EU Borg project?

How may years before the Union Jack, worn by foreigners as a badge of hip, goes the way of the Confederate flag? What then for British culture? What then for the competitive edge afforded by "cool Britannia"?

Yep, the clock is ticking. Ticking on everything that makes us as a country unique. Blink and accept remain and the EU bureaucrats will federalize us quicker than you can say "permanent opt out".

 

Yes that open tolerant, 2012 olympics world leading UK worn by foreigners as a badge of hip is now increasingly seen slipping down a path of nativist insular post-imperial  idiocy.

We did manage to slough off the NF from the Union Jack post 80s but we're at risk of it being sullied again. Interesting to note that Leaver Leaders cavort with the likes of Bannon - the leader of the confederate flag waving white supremacists over the pond.

Mind you the 'Brexit betrayal' march was apparently swamped by anti-racists today so perhaps we've learnt something.

As for the 'EU Borg' project which has Leavers alternatively wetting their pants or insistent that it will collapse next week, depending on which sci-fi version of reality suits,, well FFS just grow a pair and have some faith and pride in your country.

 

[Dorkins]

25 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What about the dozens of other issues that are still up for debate.

Is it pure WTO terms or will we try to have a FTA with the EU.

Will we trade access to our fishing grounds for say aviation rights

Will we keep mutual recognition of qualifications with the EU

Etc, etc, etc 

In terms of WTO vs FTA, I think the amount of time the UK electorate, the UK government, MPs and the EU27 are willing to wait for Brexit to reach some kind of stable endpoint is much shorter than the amount of time it would take to negotiate an FTA so logistically it would be WTO Brexit first then FTA later. Personally I would be surprised if Brexit isn't wrapped up by the end of 2022, I don't buy this line that Brexit is going to dominate UK politics for decades.

Yes there would be lots of bilateral issues to tidy up but these things are best left to trade negotiators and diplomats, not the kind of big constitutional issues it is worth bothering voters with in a referendum.

[OnionTerror]

9 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

In terms of WTO vs FTA, I think the amount of time the UK electorate, the UK government, MPs and the EU27 are willing to wait for Brexit to reach some kind of stable endpoint is much shorter than the amount of time it would take to negotiate an FTA so logistically it would be WTO Brexit first then FTA later. Personally I would be surprised if Brexit isn't wrapped up by the end of 2022, I don't buy this line that Brexit is going to dominate UK politics for decades.

Yes there would be lots of bilateral issues to tidy up but these things are best left to trade negotiators and diplomats, not the kind of big constitutional issues it is worth bothering voters with in a referendum.

Trouble is that an FTA isn't really enough...will it cover services for instance? Non tariff barriers? Over the coming years, there will be a big push to develop a proper two tier Europe..There's only so long we'd put with non voting rights within EU agencies for instance.  Yes the EEA gives us a say in "shaping" EEA law, and parliament doesn't need to vote EEA law in, but it is suboptimal when it comes to the voting aspect of it..

Third countries, such as us will still be following EU law, if we want to sell into the EU..but non-tariff barriers will still exist because we are outside the framework..

Edited December 9, 2018 by Dave Beans

[pig]

48 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

"The time had been, when this burst of enthusiasm would have been cheered to the very echo; but now, the deputation received it with chilling coldness. The general impression seemed to be, that as an explanation of Mr. Gregsbury’s political conduct, it did not enter quite enough into detail; and one gentleman in the rear did not scruple to remark aloud, that, for his purpose, it savoured rather too much of a 'gammon' tendency.

The meaning of that term—gammon,' said Mr. Gregsbury, 'is unknown to me. If it means that I grow a little too fervid, or perhaps even hyperbolical, in extolling my native land, I admit the full justice of the remark. I am proud of this free and happy country. My form dilates, my eye glistens, my breast heaves, my heart swells, my bosom burns, when I call to mind her greatness and her glory"

Nicholas Nickleby, Dickens, 1838.

Great find.

Have to say while I'm not keen on the term gammon, bearing in mind its mainly used by white people to insult other white people I've always thought its stretching it to call it a racist term.