Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Crumbless]

43 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

  It's obvious that Remainers here have a vested interest to keep FoM - probably because they despair at the idea of needing a visa for their next holiday - oh the horror.

 

 

You can fly to obscure places like Kazakhstan without the need for a visa or i should say you get a "Visa On Arrival", so there is no chance that Europeans who rely on our tourism will be seeking visas.

Hypothetically speaking, if the Spanish, Greeks, Bulgarians, Italians, French were to make us get a visa to holiday there then i can't see a family forking out another 50-100Euro to visit. All the better for British tourism.

[kzb]

A few years back (before Spain joined the EU), we could go on holiday to France and. Spain with a visitors' pass.  You didn't need a full passport, let alone a visa.

On top of this, air travel is turning into such a nightmare with the security considerations.  It's not a fast mode of transport anymore.  I think tourists are getting sick of it (I know I am) and are taking it into consideration when deciding where to vacaction.

[kzb]

18 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That's actually almost exactly deal it strongly is rumoured will be offered to us by the EU. Technically we will have left the EU but in reality nothing of any real substance will have changed (we will get some restrictions on FoM, in return for the end of the rebate). 

I was suspecting this as well ! 

BUT I would say it is very important that we regain the ability to make our own trade deals without going through the EU.  Norway can do this so why can't we.

In this way we can make a gradual change.  There is no way the UK can change into Singapore in 2 years time.

A free trade zone with no tariffs (as advocated by Patrick Minford et al) would mean the end of what is left of UK manufacturing.  They openly admit this.  I suspect it means the virtual end of UK agriculture also.

The EC was set up originally as a protectionist measure to protect European farmers, don't forget that.  It's whole reason for being, originally, was economic protectionism.

[Guest TheBlueCat]

2 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

- that the EU is on our doorstep and the rest of the world isn't and that makes a big difference, most migrants travel to a bordering country not half way across the world.

 

You've not been to Toronto, have you?!

Edited September 28, 2016 by TheBlueCat
typos

[billybong]

4 hours ago, ccc said:

Oh come on ffs

Let's try and improve the wages and living standards of everywhere else and all will be fine. What's going to happen to this country in the meantime whilst we wait the 20- 30 years for that to happen ? 

Poland's purchasing power isn't far short of Britain's now and official unemployment there is not much different with far more of them owning their own homes yet they still come to Britain.  Increasing the standard of living to reduce migration to Britain doesn't seem to work in Poland's case.

Here's one opinion why

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/257

https://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=z8o7pt6rd5uqa6_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:pl:uk:de&hl=en&dl=en

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2016 by billybong

[Confusion of VIs]

48 minutes ago, TheBlueCat said:

You've not been to Toronto, have you?!

Why will I find 3 million Syrian refugees there.

[ccc]

Ok - possible futures. Do you think what is happening today is NOT going to continue unless FOM is stopped for EE countries ?

I have been through this before so many times. It is so simple.

It was a big thing for Pavol from Krakow to come to the UK 10+ years ago. New language, accents, somewhere to live, how to get work, no family or friends etc..

A HUGE deal.

Now ? It's barely more than going on holiday. Half their friends and family already stay here [Exaggeration but not by much].

Its not a big deal for them. Its not scary.

The more that are here = the easier that it becomes = the more come. I had a read of Polish migration stats on wiki earlier. Almost 30% of them state their first ever job WAS ABROAD !!

They finish school - borrow £50 of their mum and get a flight over to Edinburgh to sleep on their cousin Margaritas couch until they can find some work and get a room of their own.

The sheer strain it is all putting on the UK is not just bad - it is extreme.

Of course we have numerous other issues in this countries - no sane person would argue that fact. But FOM within the EU added to the crazy numbers we let into this country from half the rest of the World is literally tearing this country to pieces.

I can understand why the rich in this country don't really care. It doesn't directly impact them a huge amount. Apart from getting cheap workers and other nice benefits of the situation.

I really cannot for the life of me understand how any sane person in this country who is not filthy rich - can look around them at what is happening and not be in shock at what has and is happening and want it to end.

[Guest TheBlueCat]

3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why will I find 3 million Syrian refugees there.

You're missing my point - the reason we don't have 3 million refugees here isn't because they wouldn't come if they were allowed, it's because our location gives us the ability to stop them. Proportionally though, Canada has twice the level of immigration of the UK and those are largely people from, literally, half way across the world. Half the people who live in Toronto - Canada's largest city - were born outside of the country and around half belong to a visible minority (a term that doesn't really make sense once you get to that level).

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, Crumbless said:

You can fly to obscure places like Kazakhstan without the need for a visa or i should say you get a "Visa On Arrival", so there is no chance that Europeans who rely on our tourism will be seeking visas.

Hypothetically speaking, if the Spanish, Greeks, Bulgarians, Italians, French were to make us get a visa to holiday there then i can't see a family forking out another 50-100Euro to visit. All the better for British tourism.

The Kazacs probably don't have much of a problem with Brits arriving and working "under the radar"

If we want to reduce seriously reduce EU immigration, rather than just the immigration stats, we will need an effective visa system that does background checks to assess the risk of "tourists" overstaying. If we implement one there is roughly zero chance that the rest of the EU won't reciprocate.

 

[ccc]

Canada needed people - and according to whoever is in charge of their current immigration policy - still does.

It chose to invite people. Its the Worlds second largest country of course.

The UK is the complete opposite. We could do with getting people to leave in large numbers.

[ccc]

Jeez please stop with this complete 'under the radar' - 'will just stay here anyway' nonsense.

Its the fact we are actively INVITING 500 million people that is the problem.

I won't have work in a few weeks. If I don't get anything in a month or two - and the US or Canada decided to say to anyone with a UK passport - come over whenever you like and do whatever job you like - would I ? ******ing right I would !!

Can I still go over there and 'work under the radar' right now if I decided to ? Of course I could.

Would I ?

NO

Would I even consider it ?

NO

FFS do I have to continue to explain this so basic of common sense over and over again.

[Confusion of VIs]

18 minutes ago, ccc said:

Ok - possible futures. Do you think what is happening today is NOT going to continue unless FOM is stopped for EE countries ?

I have been through this before so many times. It is so simple.

It was a big thing for Pavol from Krakow to come to the UK 10+ years ago. New language, accents, somewhere to live, how to get work, no family or friends etc..

A HUGE deal.

Now ? It's barely more than going on holiday. Half their friends and family already stay here [Exaggeration but not by much].

Its not a big deal for them. Its not scary.

The more that are here = the easier that it becomes = the more come. I had a read of Polish migration stats on wiki earlier. Almost 30% of them state their first ever job WAS ABROAD !!

They finish school - borrow £50 of their mum and get a flight over to Edinburgh to sleep on their cousin Margaritas couch until they can find some work and get a room of their own.

The sheer strain it is all putting on the UK is not just bad - it is extreme.

Of course we have numerous other issues in this countries - no sane person would argue that fact. But FOM within the EU added to the crazy numbers we let into this country from half the rest of the World is literally tearing this country to pieces.

I can understand why the rich in this country don't really care. It doesn't directly impact them a huge amount. Apart from getting cheap workers and other nice benefits of the situation.

I really cannot for the life of me understand how any sane person in this country who is not filthy rich - can look around them at what is happening and not be in shock at what has and is happening and want it to end.

Well I don't think we can turn back the clock, there are established EE communities all over the country as you say this makes it far easier for others to come over and find work. Even if FoM is abolished these will remain and there would still be significant immigration, legally based upon on family ties and work permits, plus illegal overstayers, fake marriages etc.

Looking forward, I do not believe there is any appetite among our leaders for reducing the number of working migrants. Osborne' s "long tem financial plan" relied on mass immigration to help grow the economy thus spreading the debt around and the Brexiteers plans really are no better; and I think may even be worse.   

 

  

[ccc]

Yes - I am fully aware our 'leaders' are big fans of more and more migrants. That was the point of the Brexit vote - the public telling them the rest of us are not.

It's now in their hands as to what they do about that.

[ccc]

You don't seem to have a problem with trying to 'turn back the clock' when it comes to house prices in this country.

I don't hear you saying - well house prices have got so high, and everyone is just so used to them, and debt is just normal, so meh what can we do about it.

Why the completely contrasting views on two things that are - whilst very different - both huge contributors to the downfall of this country ?

[Confusion of VIs]

30 minutes ago, ccc said:

You don't seem to have a problem with trying to 'turn back the clock' when it comes to house prices in this country.

I don't hear you saying - well house prices have got so high, and everyone is just so used to them, and debt is just normal, so meh what can we do about it.

Why the completely contrasting views on two things that are - whilst very different - both huge contributors to the downfall of this country ?

Houses are just things, their price is only whatever someone will pay for them today - if they half in value tomorrow, so what, for every loser there will be a winner.

It's much more difficult when you are dealing with people, they have rights, integrate with and marry into communities and of course have children. As a result  you generally have to live with your mistakes and make the best of whatever changed circumstance you have created. 

I don't see the working EE migrants as contributing to the fall of the country, probably a small plus overall although I agree it could be argued otherwise. For me Brown's revamp of the benefit system and its impact upon housing deserves far more blame than migration. 

 

[ccc]

I don't blame them individually. I do blame them as a collective though. They have been a disaster for this country.

As for 'rights' - been through this before. They have rights just now as we are part of the EU - these don't exist once we officially leave.

10 years ago all we were told was they would be here for a few years and save money then go back home. Now its they have 'rights' to be able to stay forever.

And whats the most amusing aspect of all this is the main country we are talking about here - Poland !!

Up there with the best of them on the 'least welcoming and racist' list.

If this situation was reversed ? I would be fearful just to walk down the street in a Polish City of being physically attacked because I was 'one of them'.

[spyguy]

Wow:

'It isn’t migrants that drive down wages'

Posted at 15:27

"As politicians, as political activists, as citizens, we must have zero tolerance towards those who whip-up hate and division, stand together against racism, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism and defend those being demonised," Jeremy Corbyn says.

"It has been shaming to our multicultural society that assaults on migrants have increased sharply since the referendum campaign a campaign that peddled myths and whipped up division," he claims.

He defends immigration:

It isn’t migrants that drive down wages, it’s exploitative employers and the politicians who deregulate the labour market and rip up trade union rights."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-37438043

[rollover]

UK cars 'must be in EU single market'

The success of the UK motor industry could be "jeopardised" if the UK leaves the single market following Brexit, a senior industry figure has said. Mike Hawes told BBC business editor Simon Jack that the industry's success came from being in the single market. The European Union is the UK motor industry's biggest export market.

 

[canbuywontbuy]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Wow:

'It isn’t migrants that drive down wages'

Posted at 15:27

"As politicians, as political activists, as citizens, we must have zero tolerance towards those who whip-up hate and division, stand together against racism, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism and defend those being demonised," Jeremy Corbyn says.

"It has been shaming to our multicultural society that assaults on migrants have increased sharply since the referendum campaign a campaign that peddled myths and whipped up division," he claims.

He defends immigration:

It isn’t migrants that drive down wages, it’s exploitative employers and the politicians who deregulate the labour market and rip up trade union rights."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-37438043

Corbyn's a waste of space.  He's a cardboard cutout leftie. 

[warpig]

He's an idiot -

" It says only continued membership of the European single market can guarantee the success of the UK car industry."

Really what happens when the EU collapses and our biggest customer is bankrupt? Wouldn't it be wise to improve our customer base before the inevitable is evident? He also assumes the EU doesn't sell Britain BMW, VW, Mercedes, Porsche or Audi's in this country. A deal WILL be done, as it's a symbiotic relationship.

 

2 hours ago, rollover said:

UK cars 'must be in EU single market'

The success of the UK motor industry could be "jeopardised" if the UK leaves the single market following Brexit, a senior industry figure has said. Mike Hawes told BBC business editor Simon Jack that the industry's success came from being in the single market. The European Union is the UK motor industry's biggest export market.

 

 

[CunningPlan]

There are certain minor but devastatingly important moments in history (Archduke Ferdinand to name but one)

I do wonder if 'tax credit sad face' on Question Time was one of those. If the cuts had gone through, and the UK became less profitable for economic migrants, would we have voted to leave the EU?

 

[CunningPlan]

There are certain minor but devastatingly important moments in history (Archduke Ferdinand to name but one)

I do wonder if 'tax credit sad face' on Question Time was one of those. If the cuts had gone through, and the UK became less profitable for economic migrants, would we have voted to leave the EU?

 

[canbuywontbuy]

9 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You are missing the point, i.e. with Ryanair and others offering airfares as low as £9.99 to the EE states they are all effectively on our doorstep.

It's got nothing to do with cheap flights or how close a country is - it's everything to do with FoM.  A cheap flight just takes you to a border you can't cross unless you have FoM.  It's an inane point that "cheap flights" makes millions take on a massive life change. Just look at how many Poles migrated to the UK prior to 2004.  Nowhere near as many as post-2004.  Same with Romanians and Bulgarians pre and post-2014.  How many Bosnians and Albanians in the UK? A lot less than if they had FoM.  FoM is the common denominator everytime.  Sorry you're upset that you're weekend Euro break might be more inconvenient in the future....

[ccc]

1 hour ago, canbuywontbuy said:

It's got nothing to do with cheap flights or how close a country is - it's everything to do with FoM.  A cheap flight just takes you to a border you can't cross unless you have FoM.  It's an inane point that "cheap flights" makes millions take on a massive life change. Just look at how many Poles migrated to the UK prior to 2004.  Nowhere near as many as post-2004.  Same with Romanians and Bulgarians pre and post-2014.  How many Bosnians and Albanians in the UK? A lot less than if they had FoM.  FoM is the common denominator everytime.  Sorry you're upset that you're weekend Euro break might be more inconvenient in the future....

I've just found out that wow air and Norwegian air have started budget flights to the US.

Previously at £500 I had zero Intention of heading over there and becoming an illegal alien for the next ten years .

But now that it's £200 - I'm off tomorrow.

Everything else that stopped me doing this before has just disappeared.....

 

 

The sheer desperation from some on this thread to believe that FOM has nothing to do with the UK bursting at the seams - is beyond ridiculous. 

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

weIt's got nothing to do with cheap flights or how close a country is - it's everything to do with FoM.  A cheap flight just takes you to a border you can't cross unless you have FoM.  It's an inane point that "cheap flights" makes millions take on a massive life change. Just look at how many Poles migrated to the UK prior to 2004.  Nowhere near as many as post-2004.  Same with Romanians and Bulgarians pre and post-2014.  How many Bosnians and Albanians in the UK? A lot less than if they had FoM.  FoM is the common , denominator everytime.  Sorry you're upset that you're weekend Euro break might be more inconvenient in the future....

Try reading the point in the context of the original posts. Then explain why it is over half of our current immigration is from states that are much further away and don't have FoM.

A cheap flight just takes you to a border you can't cross unless you have FoM are you seriously suggesting we will close the borders after we leave the EU. The reality is that people will still come, maybe they will have to apply for a work permit first, or as is being touted have to make an in country application and find a job within 6 months. We will still get lots of illegals, as shown by the fact that 40% of the Romanians and Bulgarians who supposedly arrived after their accession turned out to have already been working here.  

The only category of people who won't be coming will be the benefit seekers and as we know stopping them is something we could have done without leaving the EU.

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2016 by Confusion of VIs