Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[kzb]

15 hours ago, highYield said:

No, if we go WTO with the EU, we import a LOAD of stuff from them. They import LITTLE from us.

Let's call the WTO tariffs 10% for simplicity.

It all goes WTO;

Our government wins 10% of a LOAD.

The EU wins 10% of a LITTLE.

Net revenue for us - not even regarding the big red bus money = positive.

The EU trade balance on GOODS was -£96 billion in 2016.  The services made up for some of that, making the net balance  -£82 billion.

Services don't have tariffs basically throughout the world.  Goods, £96bn net, do attract tariffs.

We could zero-rate citrus fruits, but put a large tariff on cars with blacked out windows.

[Futuroid]

3 minutes ago, kzb said:

Services don't have tariffs basically throughout the world.  Goods, £96bn net, do attract tariffs.

Services don't have tariffs agreed by the WTO, but they are subject to "non tariff" barriers - i.e. you must show compliance with the appropriate legislation / agree to be bound by a special court / hold an appropriate licence. An example of this is access to Eurozone clearing. Unless you have a license you can't play.

Services are not covered by WTO rules. You have to negotiate access to a market for services on a case by case basis. So in the event of leaving the EU on WTO rules we would have no access for export of services to it until we had negotiated another agreement.

[jonb2]

6 minutes ago, kzb said:

The EU trade balance on GOODS was -£96 billion in 2016.  The services made up for some of that, making the net balance  -£82 billion.

Services don't have tariffs basically throughout the world.  Goods, £96bn net, do attract tariffs.

We could zero-rate citrus fruits, but put a large tariff on cars with blacked out windows.

Sounds a bit like EU meddling to me KZB.

And surely drug dealing should be one of our main industries after Brexit - just to take our mind off the reality.

[Timak]

How many people who voted Brexit would actively welcome a "low tax, low regulation, Singapore style economy"?

[Option5]

45 minutes ago, Timak said:

How many people who voted Brexit would actively welcome a "low tax, low regulation, Singapore style economy"?

Probably quite a few if it came with Singaporean property ownership and immigration rules .

[rollover]

Quote

Government may be ready to accept the continued jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) post-Brexit. Telegraph

 

[IMHAL]

2 minutes ago, rollover said:

Government may be ready to accept the continued jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) post-Brexit. Telegraph

At some point we will collectively realise that this is not a negotiation......... it may take the politicians and Brexiteers a little longer to come to this conclusion.

[IMHAL]

UK ready to pay more for Brexit. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42060183

Should read - UK ready to bend over for Brexit.

[HairyOb1]

4 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

UK ready to pay more for Brexit. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42060183

Should read - UK ready to bend over for Brexit.

It seems the Moment we triggered Article 50, we collectively pulled our own pants down an bent over, ready for the obvious hiding that was coming our way.

I still laugh at BoJo's £10bn?  They can go whistle.  Then May upped it to £20bn and it was not a penny more.  Now he's meekly agreed to £40bn.  They'll get £60bn as all they need to do is say no, we're not discussing trade until you give us £60bn, agree to no hard border in Ireland and pony up on EU Citizens rights in the UK being equivalent to EU citizens, so some folk in the EU WILL have FOM, just not the plebs.

I knew we'd be fiscally waterboarded and I am hoping someone sees sense before we leave, as this is getting ridiculous.  Read today that we might have to have new inland customs centres that local councils may have to fund.

Then I hear the deficit has gone out a bit, that we're still around 90% of GDP and well over £2tn in debt.  

But the most hilarious part, is that this board, or some parts of it, seem to think this brexit thing isn't harming the country already.

[kzb]

Watched a lot of the BBC Parliament channel Fisheries and Brexit committee last night (I'd recorded it previously).

Couple of things I'd not known before:  (1) Grimsby used to be the largest fishing port in the world; (2) 25% of all cod landed in the world is eaten in Britain (3) fish live in zones, it is a myth that a certain fish swims over a vast area.

Once again, whilst watching this, I was struck by how the persons actually involved in the industry under examination were not at all panicked by Brexit.  On the contrary, the industry representatives were highly enthusiastic about the opportunities.  The academic was a bit more guarded but he was not negative overall.

All in the room seemed in agreement the Common Fisheries Policy has been very poor for Britain.  The deal done in 1972 wiped out our long-range fleet.  Quotas have been set for political reasons, not scientific ones, which has lead to over fishing.  They all seemed very keen to see the back of it.

The British fleet could land a lot more fish, and sell it, given the opportunity.  Norway is in the EEA but has control over quotas in its own waters.  We buy frozen cheap cod from Norway and sell them expensive fresh cod.  The news for the processing industry was a bit more mixed.  If tariffs are imposed, they will have to switch to processing our own UK-landed catch instead of truck loads of imported fish.  Seems reasonable to me.

[IMHAL]

2 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

It seems the Moment we triggered Article 50, we collectively pulled our own pants down an bent over, ready for the obvious hiding that was coming our way.

I still laugh at BoJo's £10bn?  They can go whistle.  Then May upped it to £20bn and it was not a penny more.  Now he's meekly agreed to £40bn.  They'll get £60bn as all they need to do is say no, we're not discussing trade until you give us £60bn, agree to no hard border in Ireland and pony up on EU Citizens rights in the UK being equivalent to EU citizens, so some folk in the EU WILL have FOM, just not the plebs.

I knew we'd be fiscally waterboarded and I am hoping someone sees sense before we leave, as this is getting ridiculous.  Read today that we might have to have new inland customs centres that local councils may have to fund.

Then I hear the deficit has gone out a bit, that we're still around 90% of GDP and well over £2tn in debt.  

But the most hilarious part, is that this board, or some parts of it, seem to think this brexit thing isn't harming the country already.

This is just the start - we havn't even earned a ticket into the negotiations yet - we will be dancing to the EU tune for the next three years......... bending over when they say bend over, time after time. I do hope that the Brexiteers like it because they have quite a bit of that coming there way.  

[IMHAL]

2 minutes ago, kzb said:

Watched a lot of the BBC Parliament channel Fisheries and Brexit committee last night (I'd recorded it previously).

Couple of things I'd not known before:  (1) Grimsby used to be the largest fishing port in the world; (2) 25% of all cod landed in the world is eaten in Britain (3) fish live in zones, it is a myth that a certain fish swims over a vast area.

Once again, whilst watching this, I was struck by how the persons actually involved in the industry under examination were not at all panicked by Brexit.  On the contrary, the industry representatives were highly enthusiastic about the opportunities.  The academic was a bit more guarded but he was not negative overall.

All in the room seemed in agreement the Common Fisheries Policy has been very poor for Britain.  The deal done in 1972 wiped out our long-range fleet.  Quotas have been set for political reasons, not scientific ones, which has lead to over fishing.  They all seemed very keen to see the back of it.

The British fleet could land a lot more fish, and sell it, given the opportunity.  Norway is in the EEA but has control over quotas in its own waters.  We buy frozen cheap cod from Norway and sell them expensive fresh cod.  The news for the processing industry was a bit more mixed.  If tariffs are imposed, they will have to switch to processing our own UK-landed catch instead of truck loads of imported fish.  Seems reasonable to me.

We could take a leaf out of Icelands book and turn into a fish based economy..

Ahaaarrgghh! we be saved..

 

 

[dryrot]

2 hours ago, Futuroid said:

It's a mystery to me as they don't seem to have been investing in infrastructure and have only been giving the public sector survival rations.

To be fair, and as that chart shows, Labour were doing reasonably well (by Labour standards) up until 2008 when the whole financial crash kicked off. They were of course complicit in that - but I'll laugh in your face if you suggest the Tories would have been any different! 

Good point - but the fact remains that Labour and Brown roughly DOUBLED public expenditure - from ~320bn to 600bn I think (public sector hiring, the "wall of money", the scottish/welsh parliaments... )This was paid for from selling gold, taxing pension funds, and financial services boom... Once the FS boom collapsed we were left with the 100Bn pa deficit. Q: how would you cut the remaining 70bn or raise that in taxes...

[kzb]

8 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

We could take a leaf out of Icelands book and turn into a fish based economy..

Ahaaarrgghh! we be saved..

Yes, it's Euro Clearing that is all important.

As far as I can make out this seems to consist of being middle-man guarantors for about 900 billion euros a day in derivatives trades.

Am I "on the hook" when this (inevitably) goes "belly up"?

 

[Futuroid]

7 minutes ago, kzb said:

Couple of things I'd not known before:  (1) Grimsby used to be the largest fishing port in the world; (2) 25% of all cod landed in the world is eaten in Britain (3) fish live in zones, it is a myth that a certain fish swims over a vast area.

If only the EU was to blame for Grimsby's woes then your post would have had some kind of point. But...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-20330148

"The heyday for the trade lasted about 20 years but the reliance on fishing proved to be a problem for the town as the trawler fleet contracted during, and after, the two decades of the Cod Wars. Iceland started extending its territorial limit around the island to exclude foreign vessels from the water it claimed as its own.

The limit was extended on three occasions between 1958 and 1976, each time forcing British fishing vessels further offshore. The limit was finally extended 200 miles off Iceland. This led to confrontations at sea between the Icelandic coastguard and trawlers from Grimsby and Hull. Several ships were even rammed as trawlers continued to try to fish within the new limit."

Oh dear - Iceland (not in the EU and often touted by Eurosceptics) stopping the fishermen from Grimsby from nicking their fish! How very dare they 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_Wars

Just a closing thought - perhaps there isn't a lot of use for a long-range fleet, when they don't have the right to fish anywhere long-range.

Oh, and next time, don't believe everything the people who have a vested interest in something tell you. Toodle Pip!

[jonb2]

2 minutes ago, dryrot said:

Good point - but the fact remains that Labour and Brown roughly DOUBLED public expenditure - from ~320bn to 600bn I think (public sector hiring, the "wall of money", the scottish/welsh parliaments... )This was paid for from selling gold, taxing pension funds, and financial services boom... Once the FS boom collapsed we were left with the 100Bn pa deficit. Q: how would you cut the remaining 70bn or raise that in taxes...

Oh FFS sake - another blaming labour for everything.

It all started in the 80s with Thatcher's Hayekian wet dream. Who was it that started the trend of selling off the family silver? Who was it that installed financial services as the be-all and end-all? Who was it that turned Britian's manufacturing base into a wasteland instead of spending the money to manage a vision of modernisation?

Labour (or rather Blair) just carried on the good fight.

 

[HairyOb1]

24 minutes ago, kzb said:

Watched a lot of the BBC Parliament channel Fisheries and Brexit committee last night (I'd recorded it previously).

Couple of things I'd not known before:  (1) Grimsby used to be the largest fishing port in the world; (2) 25% of all cod landed in the world is eaten in Britain (3) fish live in zones, it is a myth that a certain fish swims over a vast area.

Once again, whilst watching this, I was struck by how the persons actually involved in the industry under examination were not at all panicked by Brexit.  On the contrary, the industry representatives were highly enthusiastic about the opportunities.  The academic was a bit more guarded but he was not negative overall.

All in the room seemed in agreement the Common Fisheries Policy has been very poor for Britain.  The deal done in 1972 wiped out our long-range fleet.  Quotas have been set for political reasons, not scientific ones, which has lead to over fishing.  They all seemed very keen to see the back of it.

The British fleet could land a lot more fish, and sell it, given the opportunity.  Norway is in the EEA but has control over quotas in its own waters.  We buy frozen cheap cod from Norway and sell them expensive fresh cod.  The news for the processing industry was a bit more mixed.  If tariffs are imposed, they will have to switch to processing our own UK-landed catch instead of truck loads of imported fish.  Seems reasonable to me.

I believe we'll be allowed to fish in our own waters that are within 12nm of the coastline after Brexit, whilst the EEA's fishing zone is the largest in the world.  So we're restricting our area to fish in...

We'll catch less fish, as the eU has it's own areas we'll not be allowed to fish in, like off Ireland, Iceland, Norway, Spain, etc, etc, etc...

23 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

This is just the start - we havn't even earned a ticket into the negotiations yet - we will be dancing to the EU tune for the next three years......... bending over when they say bend over, time after time. I do hope that the Brexiteers like it because they have quite a bit of that coming there way.  

I know, I am quite enjoying this.  This week alone has been hilarious.

6 minutes ago, kzb said:

Yes, it's Euro Clearing that is all important.

As far as I can make out this seems to consist of being middle-man guarantors for about 900 billion euros a day in derivatives trades.

Am I "on the hook" when this (inevitably) goes "belly up"?

You probably heard Juncker saying the other day we're losing passporting, which means losing Euro clearing.  So, look at what our cut of €900bn a day was in these trades and wave bye bye to them as they move to Paris/Frankfurt/Dublin/Madrid (perm 2 from 4)...

[kzb]

1 minute ago, HairyOb1 said:

I believe we'll be allowed to fish in our own waters that are within 12nm of the coastline after Brexit, whilst the EEA's fishing zone is the largest in the world.  So we're restricting our area to fish in...

We'll catch less fish, as the eU has it's own areas we'll not be allowed to fish in, like off Ireland, Iceland, Norway, Spain, etc, etc, etc...

 

I think they said 200 nm, not 12. 

The industry representatives were certainly under the impression they would catch MORE fish, and no-one in the room contradicted this.  There was an academic expert present and he did not say this was mistaken.

[HairyOb1]

17 minutes ago, kzb said:

I think they said 200 nm, not 12. 

The industry representatives were certainly under the impression they would catch MORE fish, and no-one in the room contradicted this.  There was an academic expert present and he did not say this was mistaken.

That's the exclusive economic zone.  So, thinking how close Denmark, Norway, Ireland, Iceland, France is, it's equidistant to their claim, so up to 11 miles in the channel, Irish sea at best 25 miles, but yes,  200miles to Denmark.  However, Pinch points between Ireland, France and the UK and the UK will not be able to fish anywhere near 400nm off the West of Ireland, no where near the Faroe Islands and Iceland (around 100nm but no where north of it, as the Faroe islands and Iceland have a 400nm zone each.  Plus the Faroe Islands to Norway will be a miss.  The North sea you can pretty much divide in half up an axis.  But literally, the banks off West Ireland will not be able to be used.  Bay of Biscay pretty much gone.  Area off Spain and Portugal gone, Med gone.  We're losing a massive area to fish in.

...and, for your edification: The UK’s share of the overall EU fishing catch grew between 2004 and 2014. In 2004 the UK had the fourth largest catch of any EU country at 652,000 tonnes, by 2014 this had grown to 752,000 tonnes and the second largest catch of any country in the EU.

So here you have the UK EEZ.  Not much, not given we can go anywhere before.

 

...and a little part of me thinks the Irish may want the NI part of the EEZ included in the EU, which would change that map dramatically...

Edited November 21, 2017 by HairyOb1

[jonb2]

22 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I believe we'll be allowed to fish in our own waters that are within 12nm of the coastline after Brexit, whilst the EEA's fishing zone is the largest in the world.  So we're restricting our area to fish in...

We'll catch less fish, as the eU has it's own areas we'll not be allowed to fish in, like off Ireland, Iceland, Norway, Spain, etc, etc, etc...

I know, I am quite enjoying this.  This week alone has been hilarious.

You probably heard Juncker saying the other day we're losing passporting, which means losing Euro clearing.  So, look at what our cut of €900bn a day was in these trades and wave bye bye to them as they move to Paris/Frankfurt/Dublin/Madrid (perm 2 from 4)...

Yup Hairy - bit by bit little England gets even smaller

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/tle-pick/passportless-canary-wharf-is-sitting-on-a-brexit-time-bomb/21/11/

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

UK firms 'excluded' from space contracts by Brexit

Mr Henley's comments came as he spoke to MPs on the Business Committee. Contracts for the European navigation satellite system, Galileo, were being particularly affected, Simon Henley of the Royal Aeronautical Society said. Speaking to MPs, Mr Henley said: "We have had companies now reporting to us they are being excluded from bidding for contracts.

ADS chief executive Paul Everitt said: "No deal would be the worst possible outcome, from an industry point of view. We believe that would be chaotic, and unhelpful for this particular sector, and a number of others."

The space industry is worth about £14bn to the UK, with about 40,000 direct employees, according to the Aerospace, Defence, Security & Space (ADS) industry group. BBC

 

Another industry that will be hit hard by Brexit.

[dryrot]

38 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Oh FFS sake - another blaming labour for everything.

It all started in the 80s with Thatcher's Hayekian wet dream. Who was it that started the trend of selling off the family silver? Who was it that installed financial services as the be-all and end-all? Who was it that turned Britian's manufacturing base into a wasteland instead of spending the money to manage a vision of modernisation?

Labour (or rather Blair) just carried on the good fight.

The debate was on the deficit and responsibility - again, you seem to be unable to look at reality (same as the EU?). OK, you tell me:

1) What Gov. expenditure was in 1997

2) What the PSBR was in 1997

3) What Gov. expenditure was in  2010

4)What the PSBR was in 2010

[jonb2]

Productivity and wage increases back to the 1860s - that's going to please the 'one direction' time travelling Brexiteers

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42012388

I blame the EU

 

 

 

[HairyOb1]

2 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Yup Hairy - bit by bit little England gets even smaller

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/tle-pick/passportless-canary-wharf-is-sitting-on-a-brexit-time-bomb/21/11/

This is the kicker for me, Brexiteers keep going on about trade, how we're not going to be losing much, but all of these items end up costing a lot of GDP.  Someone on twitter was saying good riddance to the EMA, bloating EU Government department we paid for, forgetting they generated us £332m a year, plus gave the area 40,000 business visits, so that's 40,000 rester rant covers * the 3 days (on average) the visit was, so that's 120,000 covers at a restaurant, say at £40 a head - £5m, 40,000 rooms at a hotel (say at £150 a night - London prices (and that's a Holiday inn express so it's likely to be higher) a further £6m a year, the flights say at £200 a pop (I'm being generous, they're probably a lot more expensive) at £8m and peripheral spending say for lunches, breakfasts, magazines, dry cleaning, cigarettes, beers, etc, etc and that's around a £20m loss to the area just on one agency lost on it's own, losing from that the Financial organisation too, say doubles that, so that's a further £20m (conservatively speaking here too), the 2000 jobs lost, plus the peripheral jobs lost.  Once we' losing clearing we'll lose a further 100,000 jobs directly (front and back office) plus the peripheral jobs and money spent locally.

Mental when no one seems to think this is a big deal.  We could easily see £8bn wiped off GDP from these above alone.

[jonb2]

1 minute ago, dryrot said:

The debate was on the deficit and responsibility - again, you seem to be unable to look at reality (same as the EU?). OK, you tell me:

1) What Gov. expenditure was in 1997

2) What the PSBR was in 1997

3) What Gov. expenditure was in  2010

4)What the PSBR was in 2010

Here -

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OJrUcDV0vxhB3JYLc01O2u9agmL0EG8-aTRfm2_JdxU/edit#gid=0

And then look at the graph - as it correlates well