Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[HairyOb1]

8 hours ago, Silverfinger said:

As if there was anything to negotiate first place! There are contractual payments, and there are actuarial payments - those should be clearly determined and not being discussed. If the UK did not pay them, they simply would prove to be thugs. I think Mario Monti said something along those lines on Bloomberg earlier today.

Edit: It is funny that the EU has not presented the one indisputable BREXIT bill yet. Moronic. Instead they allowed bickering and bartering, as if there was anything to discuss here.

I think it's quite obvious what they're doing and it's both smart and cute. They're waiting to see what we'll throw at it.  Currently £20bn - No deal.  Then it will b e£40bn - No deal.  I think I read the rumours were of wanting £60bn plus continued payments without the rebate.

Ouchy ouchy.  That's what happens in a  game where only one person has an actual hand.

6 hours ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Bananas eh? Just wait until the Maybot has got to increase that to £60bn. After sorting the Irish border that is.

Precisely, then more.  Going to knock that deficit up quite a lot, if they don't announce some creative accounting...

They've already put drugs and hookers on GDP, so I can't see how they can add anything else...

11 hours ago, highYield said:

No, if we go WTO with the EU, we import a LOAD of stuff from them. They import LITTLE from us.

Let's call the WTO tariffs 10% for simplicity.

It all goes WTO;

Our government wins 10% of a LOAD.

The EU wins 10% of a LITTLE.

Net revenue for us - not even regarding the big red bus money = positive.

Ok, you do realise that doesn't make sense.  If it all goes to WTO, then we don't win anything, nor does the EU.

Secondly, the businesses that mainly export goods to the EU and do not operate much in the UK, will move to the EU.

Thirdly.  We don't import a lot of stuff from them, we import 13%, and we export over 50% - Who do you think, in a trade war, which this will become in the event of a hard brexit, can handle the loss better, the people reliant on 13%, or the people reliant on over 50%?  (I don't buy into the 44% you posted yesterday by the way).

I cannot understand why you're not looking at this holistically.  If there is a uk business that exports 60% to EU, 20% ROW and 20% UK, which place would his business operate better from as regards costs and prices?  If I were operating on that model, I'd be looking at premises in Southern Spain where I'd get help setting up, cheaper labour costs and no tariffs on 80% of my goods.  I'd not be sat in limbo waiting for new trade agreements to pop up and wouldn't have to raise my prices 10% to cover WTO rules.  In the manufacturing business in the UK, and automotive parts industry, there are 1000's of businesses with a model like that.

You keep suggesting WTO will be ok, when it will be an unmitigated disaster.

In other, slightly brexit news, we seem to have lost our seat on the IoJ for the first time ever.  So UK's waning importance on the international scene obviously kicking in.  I personally do think Brexit is involved with this decision.

The UK is to lose its seat on the International Court of Justice for the first time since the United Nations' principal legal body began in 1946. 

 

[Futuroid]

Britain has got into the quitting spirit now.  You just feel the influence draining away in every sphere:

No British judge on world court for first time in its 71-year history

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/nov/20/no-british-judge-on-world-court-for-first-time-in-its-71-year-history

"The decision to bow to mounting opposition within the UN general assembly is a humiliating blow to British international prestige and an acceptance of a diminished status in international affairs."

Taking back Losing control - one day at a time 

[Futuroid]

Total annual cost to each British household of EU membership = ~£300

Total annual cost (so far) to each British household because of Brexit =  £400

Net cost of Brexit - before the worst bits have happened = £100.

How can we spend that on the NHS? Will Brexit lead to us having to take money AWAY from the NHS 

Small change to Jacob Knees-Fogg and Nigel Garage and BoZo but significant for just about managing households up and down the country.

[Futuroid]

It's just another GLORIOUS week in Brexiworld:

• Seat on the UN supreme court given up.
• EMA going to Amsterdam, EBA to Paris (loss of 1,000 jobs and millions in funding together with all the jobs that rely on supporting them).
• Third cabinet member resigns in a fortnight.
• Offer to pay EU increased to £40 billion.
• Admission that the ECJ will continue to have a say (so we will have to follow the rules but have no say AT ALL in making them).
• The amount the average person will have to pay out for goods etc has gone up by more, due to inflation, than the personal average contribution to the EU membership.
• NHS facing crisis point.
• First incoming unicorn shipment cancelled.
• Teacher morale at all time low.
• Councils facing a cliff edge, cancelling non-statutory provisions and making staff redundant.
• Crops rotting in fields.
• Reputation in the world damaged.

Winter is coming...

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

We can't play Santa Tory fury after secret Cabinet summit 'signs off £40BILLION divorce offer to Brussel

Theresa May is facing a furious Tory backlash over 'playing Santa to Juncker' today after her Brexit 'war cabinet' agreed to offer billions more in divorce payments to the EU. The plan for an increased offer came after ten key ministers met amid tight secrecy in Downing Street, ahead of a crunch summit next month. Daily Mail

 

Many unhappy exiters.

[IMHAL]

55 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Britain has got into the quitting spirit now.  You just feel the influence draining away in every sphere:

No British judge on world court for first time in its 71-year history

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/nov/20/no-british-judge-on-world-court-for-first-time-in-its-71-year-history

"The decision to bow to mounting opposition within the UN general assembly is a humiliating blow to British international prestige and an acceptance of a diminished status in international affairs."

Taking back Losing control - one day at a time 

Perhaps the Brexiteers are right - maybe they realise before anyone else that we are just little Englanders afterall and that we should just accept our new place as a has been, low in the pecking order country.

[IMHAL]

48 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

It's just another GLORIOUS week in Brexiworld:

• Seat on the UN supreme court given up.
• EMA going to Amsterdam, EBA to Paris (loss of 1,000 jobs and millions in funding together with all the jobs that rely on supporting them).
• Third cabinet member resigns in a fortnight.
• Offer to pay EU increased to £40 billion.
• Admission that the ECJ will continue to have a say (so we will have to follow the rules but have no say AT ALL in making them).
• The amount the average person will have to pay out for goods etc has gone up by more, due to inflation, than the personal average contribution to the EU membership.
• NHS facing crisis point.
• First incoming unicorn shipment cancelled.
• Teacher morale at all time low.
• Councils facing a cliff edge, cancelling non-statutory provisions and making staff redundant.
• Crops rotting in fields.
• Reputation in the world damaged.

Winter is coming...

Really noticing that food has gone up - I reckon an avergae of 10% at least. That is about £600 a year for us - not trivial at all.

[jonb2]

25 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Really noticing that food has gone up - I reckon an avergae of 10% at least. That is about £600 a year for us - not trivial at all.

Don't be so silly IMHAL, according to Patrick Minford - the 'expert' the Brexiteers are guided by, we're all much better off:

https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/News/britains-poorest-families-will-be-the-biggest-winners-from-brexit/

... and in other news we have discovered how to turn cow dung into platinum. Plus, 30 new hospitals are planned with executive bedrooms for each patient.

[IMHAL]

9 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Don't be so silly IMHAL, according to Patrick Minford - the 'expert' the Brexiteers are guided by, we're all much better off:

https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/News/britains-poorest-families-will-be-the-biggest-winners-from-brexit/

... and in other news we have discovered how to turn cow dung into platinum. Plus, 30 new hospitals are planned with executive bedrooms for each patient.

How could I be so silly!  Those food banks are there to be used right?

[jonb2]

Just now, IMHAL said:

How could I be so silly!  Those food banks are there to be used right?

Absolutely, and they are so uplifting - Rees Mogg is so right on this. Like he is on Brexit. He's such an intelligent and entertaining chap with super awareness of how other people live and their needs. I doff my cap to him, I really do.

[Futuroid]

"She's taking on water captain, she's taking on a lot of water. Get the lifeboats ready."
"Sorry, first officer, the lifeboats have been moved to an offshore tax haven. Are you a good swimmer?"

UK budget deficit widened unexpectedly to £8bn in October 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/nov/21/uk-borrowing-deficit-public-finances-hammond-bank-of-england-business-live

 

[jonb2]

Meanwhile, in dragon and sea-monster infested waters beyond our shores

http://www.northernslant.com/2017-moment-irish-unity-became-inevitable/

[Futuroid]

1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

Really noticing that food has gone up - I reckon an avergae of 10% at least. That is about £600 a year for us - not trivial at all.

Yep, seeing a noticeable rise across the board on most of our food shops. 

[IMHAL]

1 minute ago, Futuroid said:

Yep, seeing a noticeable rise across the board on most of our food shops. 

With real food getting so expensive does anyonehave a good recipe  for sovereignty?

Sovereignty in a Hole, Scrambled Sovereignty, Half Baked Sovereignty, Sovereignty Kieve.........I know.... Sovereingty a la Farage!

[Futuroid]

A last Brexit has given something back to us. A new adjective...

Brexity
Either hypocritical or low brow, not very classy or reliable.
"Do we have to meet in Wetherspoons?"
"Its a bit Brexity..."

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=brexity&defid=12187085

[IMHAL]

4 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

A last Brexit has given something back to us. A new adjective...

Brexity
Either hypocritical or low brow, not very classy or reliable.
"Do we have to meet in Wetherspoons?"
"Its a bit Brexity..."

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=brexity&defid=12187085

I would also have expected it to include as a minimum, unable to do basic maths and not very good at poker.

[Futuroid]

1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

I would also have expected it to include as a minimum, unable to do basic maths and not very good at poker.

[jonb2]

20 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Yep, seeing a noticeable rise across the board on most of our food shops. 

Yup, not going to get any better - hard Brexit will cost the average family £11k to 2030

https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2017/october/the-permanent-damage-of-brexit/

But at least we'll be able to grow our own cucumbers in shapes of our own choice without interference from the pesky EU

[Futuroid]

11 hours ago, ExiledMatty said:

More Brits have emigrated Australia than the whole of the EU! Who cares if we lose the right. Very few Brits go to Europe to live because they know they won't fit in.

Spain will still take our pensioners whatever Brexit deal or no deal.

 

And what is your timescale for this? UK citizens have only had the right to live and work elsewhere in the EU since 1992. There were tens of thousands going to Australia and NZ (the "Ten Pound Poms") from 1947 on. These are ex colonies of the UK for goodness sake!

P.S. Only 2.8% of the total EU population are resident in a member state other than the one that issued their passport.

[Futuroid]

2 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

But at least we'll be able to grow our own cucumbers in shapes of our own choice without interference from the pesky EU

Not the ones for export though!

[IMHAL]

10 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Yup, not going to get any better - hard Brexit will cost the average family £11k to 2030

https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2017/october/the-permanent-damage-of-brexit/

But at least we'll be able to grow our own cucumbers in shapes of our own choice without interference from the pesky EU

Our politicians will be so pleased - no need to send their secretaries for seedy trips to the sex shop - Waitrose will cater for all their needs now.

Edited November 21, 2017 by IMHAL

[dryrot]

25 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Yup, not going to get any better - hard Brexit will cost the average family £11k to 2030

https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2017/october/the-permanent-damage-of-brexit/

But at least we'll be able to grow our own cucumbers in shapes of our own choice without interference from the pesky EU

Are these the same guys that did "project fear"? Rabobank appears to be a financial insiittution based in Holland: "Rabobank is a Dutch multinational banking and financial services company headquartered in Utrecht, Netherlands. It is a global leader in food and agriculture financing and sustainability-oriented banking. "

Not quite sure why we should all kowtow to their pronouncements on Brexit? Predictions to 2030? We all know how correct Project Fear was!

"A 2013 scandal resulted in a $1 billion fine for unscrupulous trading practices, which included the manipulation of LIBOR currency rates worldwide. Chief Executive Piet Moerland resigned immediately as a result.[4]"

Then again, they'd fit in well to the UK finance industry....

[dryrot]

OK, perhpas foolishly, I tried to read the "report" rather than the headline. On Page 1 we find

"The introduction of tariffs on goods and non-tariff barriers on goods and services, such as customs controls, raises trade costs on UK exports for the EU and vice versa. Higher import inflation due to these increased trade costs also results in a lower real disposable income of households, which will squeeze their purchasing power."

Unless they buy from outside the EU, which will be far cheaper as we ar'nt subject to EU import tariffs (cf the 16% hike on imported citrus fruit last year). If you are going to ignore cheaper worldwide food prices then the £11000 till 2030 figure is even more absurd than originally.

Perhaps Rabobank, exposed to hi-cost EU agriculture, is worried for its loans?

Edited November 21, 2017 by dryrot
spelling/emph

[dryrot]

Just now, TwoTearsInABucket said:

 

What I don't get is we are supposed to believe the Tory w*nkers are better than the Labout w*nkers. To me that borrowing looks to have increased massively since the Tories got in.

Where is all that money going? Friends?

In 1997 the Tories left Labour with a 6bn annual deficit. In 2010 Labour left the coailition with a 100Bn annual deficit. Do the math... (and dont forget, that after years of brutal austerity, the annual deficit has been been reduced to 70bn... We borrow that each year. And Corbyn wants to spend? :))

[Futuroid]

4 minutes ago, TwoTearsInABucket said:

 

What I don't get is we are supposed to believe the Tory w*nkers are better than the Labout w*nkers. To me that borrowing looks to have increased massively since the Tories got in.

Where is all that money going? Friends?

It's a mystery to me as they don't seem to have been investing in infrastructure and have only been giving the public sector survival rations.

2 minutes ago, dryrot said:

In 1997 the Tories left Labour with a 6bn annual deficit. In 2010 Labour left the coailition with a 100Bn annual deficit. Do the math... (and dont forget, that after years of brutal austerity, the annual deficit has been been reduced to 70bn... We borrow that each year. And Corbyn wants to spend? :))

To be fair, and as that chart shows, Labour were doing reasonably well (by Labour standards) up until 2008 when the whole financial crash kicked off. They were of course complicit in that - but I'll laugh in your face if you suggest the Tories would have been any different!