Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Sheeple Splinter]

9 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

If you saw the C4 News Brexit discussion tonight (audience all Leave voters, invited to discuss how things are going) you would doubt that.

The piece was depressing on two levels, from realising: 

1.  - just how uniformed the audience was, almost all were parroting Daily Mail/Express views and completely ignorant of the practicalities of leaving.

2. - that if this audience is in any way representative, Brexit will be seen as a sell out by almost all the Leave voters owing to the impossibility of reconciling their simplistic and contradictory views with reality. 

I even thought I could see a flicker of panic cross Daniel Hanan's face, as he realised that for most the only acceptable Brexit would be one where we stop paying into the EU now, immediately hand the cash to the NHS, leave the EU tomorrow and reach the sunlit uplands where everything gets better sometime next week.       

Thanks for the heads up - Remainers turn next week.

1. I watched all 48mins and thought it covered the hard/soft brexit, lied to, lack of planning & communication, FoM, NHS training fairly. One of the central points the audience made was that they were uninformed/misled about what Leave would mean. 

Did you think the northerners' views on Corbyn's approach to Brexit was uninformed?

2. How, there were people wanting to stay in the SM but more wanted a clear plan with a timescale.

 

 

 

[ExiledMatty]

9 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

1.  I don't have a problem with it, I have a problem with nationalism, and sorry, but it slips one way too far for some.  I feel you're one of them.

2.  This simply makes you sound like a bit of a knob.  I can see why you like Dyson so much, as it appears you're cut from the same cloth. 

3.  ...and a nationalist.

4.  Australia probably one of the worst nanny states there are (I lived there for nearly 4 years and it's got worse).  You may think you have complete control over your life, but you don't, very few do.

I don't hate you, I don't know you.  If anything, I pity you, wouldn't want to be you, but we're different I guess.

I did well through property and hard work.  I do like the line you hedged and did well through sterling collapsing 'despite earning my income from there' as that would be a neat trick 

 

Not a neat trick. Just long term planning e.g buying  foreign currency when Sterling was high. I agree Aus is a nanny state but I am just visiting so has zero impact on me.

One wonders why you are even on this forum? You have done well out of housing and have far left views. You don't actually fit in here, so it's likely you are just trolling.

[Confusion of VIs]

38 minutes ago, Unexpected said:

I think that focusing on the practicalities of leaving isn't helping the remain case. Saying that it is difficult to leave therefore it's best to stay will make most leavers (and some remainers who don't like the feeling of being trapped) all the more determined to get out. Weak minded people will stay in a situation because it's hard to get out of so this argument that we are weak therefore we should stay will not work on most people. It's human nature to be defiant to such arguments.

This was the leavers talking, what it revealed was there is no version of Brexit that will meet their expectations. So post Brexit we will have 48% of the population unhappy because Brexit went ahead and the other 52% will be unhappy because it was the wrong sort of Brexit.

As to your comment about weak minded, that just plain wrong a straw man of your own making. It is however, weak minded/childish to not want  to hear about and take account of the practicalities and cost of leaving before coming to an opinion as to whether Brexit is a good or bad thing..   

[HairyOb1]

49 minutes ago, ExiledMatty said:

Not a neat trick. Just long term planning e.g buying  foreign currency when Sterling was high. I agree Aus is a nanny state but I am just visiting so has zero impact on me.

One wonders why you are even on this forum? You have done well out of housing and have far left views. You don't actually fit in here, so it's likely you are just trolling.

I don't fit in here?  Are you mad?  There are a lot of left wing thinkers in here.  I made money out of housing, like most people, through luck, not planning.  I am as keen as anyone to see a crash as my kids future is shafted otherwise.

As for not being affected, are you above the law in Oz Matt?

[HairyOb1]

50 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

This was the leavers talking, what it revealed was there is no version of Brexit that will meet their expectations. So post Brexit we will have 48% of the population unhappy because Brexit went ahead and the other 52% will be unhappy because it was the wrong sort of Brexit.

As to your comment about weak minded, that just plain wrong a straw man of your own making. It is however, weak minded/childish to not want to hear about and take account of the practicalities and cost of leaving before coming to an opinion as to whether Brexit is a good or bad thing..   

Absolutely.

Also the line regarding both sides of the equation being unhappy means this bringing together of the country is going to be an almighty difficult thing to achieve.  If anything, it makes me truly think whoever delivers this, if they ever do, will be forever damned with it. No wonder it appears that everyone, apart from the rabid brexiteers, wants to keep kicking the can down the road.  Half of me thinks Johnson, et al, are actually right about simply walking away and trying their hardest in the next 5 years to make it work, otherwise they're simply all in trouble.  

I read about a conspiracy theory weeks ago,  that May maybe saw this as an election to lose.  The more this continues, the more that does look sensible.

[Confusion of VIs]

24 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Thanks for the heads up - Remainers turn next week.

1. I watched all 48mins and thought it covered the hard/soft brexit, lied to, lack of planning & communication, FoM, NHS training fairly. One of the central points the audience made was that they were uninformed/misled about what Leave would mean. 

Did you think the northerners' views on Corbyn's approach to Brexit was uninformed?

2. How, there were people wanting to stay in the SM but more wanted a clear plan with a timescale.

 

I cannot recall Corbyn's approach being discussed, and a quick rescan didn't find it. 

2. but almost no one prepared to accept a realistic timescale or cost. I really cannot see the Conservatives winning the next election, they are going to be blamed by both sides when the mismatch between expectations and reality is revealed.     

 

[ExiledMatty]

9 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I don't fit in here?  Are you mad?  There are a lot of left wing thinkers in here.  I made money out of housing, like most people, through luck, not planning.  I am as keen as anyone to see a crash as my kids future is shafted otherwise.

As for not being affected, are you above the law in Oz Matt?

You are coming across as someone who is as far left as the likes of Farage is far right, and they are both as bad as each other.

I am not living in Australia. I can leave tonight if I wanted. A nanny state is not going to have much, ifany real impact a tourist!.The only time I have to deal with the Govt here is when I arrived and when I depart.

[Up the spout]

10 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I cannot recall Corbyn's approach being discussed, and a quick rescan didn't find it. 

2. but almost no one prepared to accept a realistic timescale or cost. I really cannot see the Conservatives winning the next election, they are going to be blamed by both sides when the mismatch between expectations and reality is revealed.     

 

Has ANY party looked like a convincing candidate since the Great Recession started? It seems that each puts the least credible person 'in charge', hoping the other lot get in. 

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, ExiledMatty said:

You are coming across as someone who is as far left as the likes of Farage is far right, and they are both as bad as each other.

I am not living in Australia. I can leave tonight if I wanted. A nanny state is not going to have much, ifany real impact a tourist!.The only time I have to deal with the Govt here is when I arrived and when I depart.

So you don't have to respect their rules?  Oh wow, tell me your secret, as when I was there, I had to adhere to all of their nanny state rules...

You're coming across as Farage like, and I know where I'd rather be sat in that comparison.

[Unexpected]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

As to your comment about weak minded, that just plain wrong a straw man of your own making. It is however, weak minded/childish to not want  to hear about and take account of the practicalities and cost of leaving before coming to an opinion as to whether Brexit is a good or bad thing..   

But who could be trusted by the leavers to make an honest review of the practicalities and cost of leaving? Politicians or anyone paid by them to do a job are not trusted by most of the population these days. How can an honest appraisal be made when there are too many V.I.s?

[Up the spout]

4 minutes ago, Unexpected said:

But who could be trusted by the leavers to make an honest review of the practicalities and cost of leaving? Politicians or anyone paid by them to do a job are not trusted by most of the population these days. How can an honest appraisal be made when there are too many V.I.s?

Yes, I think we should treat their 'promises' the same as we do weather forecasts.

[GrizzlyDave]

well worth a read.

[Confusion of VIs]

8 minutes ago, Unexpected said:

But who could be trusted by the leavers to make an honest review of the practicalities and cost of leaving? Politicians or anyone paid by them to do a job are not trusted by most of the population these days. How can an honest appraisal be made when there are too many V.I.s?

You could do a bit of your own research, and assess how credible the big ticket claims are.

eg Exit bill claims of between 0 and 100bn - a quick look the items in it and its easy to  see that it will be at least 35bn but no more than 50bn

Transition claims of 0 to 20 years - Civil Service thinks it will require at least 10 years, they might have over egged it but its not going to be done in 2 years. Say 5 years.

Replacing EU trade deals - almost all significant trade deals take 10-15 years to negotiate and implement, why would you believe anyone saying they can be done almost over night.

Sovereignty - you could think about and educate yourselves about what sovereignty means in the modern world. How will we do deep trade deals without being prepared to share sovereignty.  Look at the US Australia deal for an example of this - is that better worse than what we currently have

Immigration - All parties are committed to continuing high levels of immigration, what difference will Brexit really make, will ending FoM mean opening up the UK to easier immigration from the rest of the world, is that really what you want 

 

You might  say much of this is beyond the average voters level of knowledge/interest but that' s just an argument for not putting complex questions to a referendum. 

 

 

[GrizzlyDave]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You could do a bit of your own research, and assess how credible the big ticket claims are.

eg Exit bill claims of between 0 and 100bn - a quick look the items in it and its easy to  see that it will be at least 35bn but no more than 50bn

Transition claims of 0 to 20 years - Civil Service thinks it will require at least 10 years, they might have over egged it but its not going to be done in 2 years. Say 5 years.

Replacing EU trade deals - almost all significant trade deals take 10-15 years to negotiate and implement, why would you believe anyone saying they can be done almost over night.

Sovereignty - you could think about and educate yourselves about what sovereignty means in the modern world. How will we do deep trade deals without being prepared to share sovereignty.  Look at the US Australia deal for an example of this - is that better worse than what we currently have

Immigration - All parties are committed to continuing high levels of immigration, what difference will Brexit really make, will ending FoM mean opening up the UK to easier immigration from the rest of the world, is that really what you want 

 

You might  say much of this is beyond the average voters level of knowledge/interest but that' s just an argument for not putting complex questions to a referendum. 

 

 

I see brexit as just a minor chapter in a bigger story.

We are climbing from the ship to the life boat, before we get to the icebergs. When GFC2 comes, the Eurozone/EU is toast.

[Unexpected]

54 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You could do a bit of your own research, and assess how credible the big ticket claims are.

eg Exit bill claims of between 0 and 100bn - a quick look the items in it and its easy to  see that it will be at least 35bn but no more than 50bn

Transition claims of 0 to 20 years - Civil Service thinks it will require at least 10 years, they might have over egged it but its not going to be done in 2 years. Say 5 years.

Replacing EU trade deals - almost all significant trade deals take 10-15 years to negotiate and implement, why would you believe anyone saying they can be done almost over night.

Sovereignty - you could think about and educate yourselves about what sovereignty means in the modern world. How will we do deep trade deals without being prepared to share sovereignty.  Look at the US Australia deal for an example of this - is that better worse than what we currently have

Immigration - All parties are committed to continuing high levels of immigration, what difference will Brexit really make, will ending FoM mean opening up the UK to easier immigration from the rest of the world, is that really what you want 

 

You might  say much of this is beyond the average voters level of knowledge/interest but that' s just an argument for not putting complex questions to a referendum. 

 

 

Yes, IMO this is way beyond the average voters level of knowledge and interest but the question put to the referendum was not complex. Some would say I have a very complex job that they would find beyond them, but for me it's just my job. When the company boss comes to me and asks how long it will take to do a job, I will usually add a significant bit of time to the job to try to avoid myself being under pressure. Similar with civil servants I would think. Especially a reluctant/lazy civil servant will be full of excuses. A job that is technically possible but considered complex needs to be carried out by motivated people, but that is not the voters responsibility. They have voted for something that is technically possible and is affordable and this is all they really need to know. 

As far as sovereignty  and trading goes, as well as freed on of movement, I'm sure that most (and quite logically so) consider them to be quite separate. They always used to be separate so no need to change that.

And why believe anyone who says a trade deal takes 10-15 years to negotiate and implement. Most would say that's taking the p1ss.

[Confusion of VIs]

7 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I see brexit as just a minor chapter in a bigger story.

We are climbing from the ship to the life boat, before we get to the icebergs. When GFC2 comes, the Eurozone/EU is toast.

Not sure I fancy sitting in a lifeboat for 1,2,5, 10....... years waiting for an iceberg comes along.

If it comes while then UK's economy is weakened by Brexit how is that going to help. 

[HairyOb1]

7 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Not sure I fancy sitting in a lifeboat for 1,2,5, 10....... years waiting for an iceberg comes along.

If it comes while then UK's economy is weakened by Brexit how is that going to help. 

Dave, and a few others I know, simply want to see the world burn, as such; I think he'd embrace that happening.  I'm glad I have land and a bolt hole.

[GrizzlyDave]

Just now, HairyOb1 said:

Dave, and a few others I know, simply want to see the world burn, as such; I think he'd embrace that happening.  I'm glad I have land and a bolt hole.

It’s the circle of life.

[pig]

1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

It’s the circle of life.

 

1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

It’s the circle of life.

Its a circle of hell.

[GrizzlyDave]

10 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Not sure I fancy sitting in a lifeboat for 1,2,5, 10....... years waiting for an iceberg comes along. Brexit is either now or never.

If it comes while then UK's economy is weakened by Brexit how is that going to help. Probably screwed either way, but at least we have the agility in our favour.

 

[GrizzlyDave]

1 minute ago, pig said:

 

Its a circle of hell.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

[Confusion of VIs]

2 minutes ago, Unexpected said:

Yes, IMO this is way beyond the average voters level of knowledge and interest but the question put to the referendum was not complex. Some would say I have a very complex job that they would find beyond them, but for me it's just my job. When the company boss comes to me and asks how long it will take to do a job, I will usually add a significant bit of time to the job to try to avoid myself being under pressure. Similar with civil servants I would think. Especially a reluctant/lazy civil servant will be full of excuses. A job that is technically possible but considered complex needs to be carried out by motivated people, but that is not the voters responsibility. They have voted for something that is technically possible and is affordable and this is all they really need to know. 

As far as sovereignty  and trading goes, as well as freed on of movement, I'm sure that most (and quite logically so) consider them to be quite separate. They always used to be separate so no need to change that.

And why believe anyone who says a trade deal takes 10-15 years to negotiate and implement. Most would say that's taking the p1ss.

So we agree the electorate were asked a question they were not equipped to answer.

There aren't many lazy people at the top of the civil service, as for reluctant they are used to doing all sorts of things they think are a bad idea for governments. As I said, like you do, they may have over egged it but 5 years is probably the absolute minimum it would require to transition - if it's any less that is probably a clue we haven't really left.

Er, because they do?  If you come across anyone who says that is taking the p1ss, just ask them what they think agreeing a trade deal involves. Their blank look will tell you all you need to know about the value of their opinion. 

[OnionTerror]

7 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Not sure I fancy sitting in a lifeboat for 1,2,5, 10....... years waiting for an iceberg comes along. Brexit is either now or never.

The way it is going - it won't be.  It sounds as if we're going to have some of associate membership of the EU, especially during the transition phase (whatever we're supposed to be transiting to) - where we accept ECJ rulings et al. but no vote...the worst of both worlds...

If we went down the EFTA route, we'd be out moderately cleanly...

[london_thirtythree]

2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

And why believe anyone who says a trade deal takes 10-15 years to negotiate and implement. Most would say that's taking the p1ss.

We've had over a year and we still haven't sorted out the big ticket items for EU Nationals and Northern Ireland.

So we still have these to agree - plus about a million other smaller points on individual industries.

So maybe there are people who can sort these deals quicker than 10 to 15 years, but we are not seeing much evidence of it in our own dealings yet.

[GrizzlyDave]

6 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

The way it is going - it won't be.  It sounds as if we're going to have some of associate membership of the EU, especially during the transition phase (whatever we're supposed to be transiting to) - where we accept ECJ rulings et al. but no vote...the worst of both worlds...

If we went down the EFTA route, we'd be out moderately cleanly...

I tend to agree.

May - remainer

Hammond - remainer

Carney - remainer

It will be a remainer stitch up.

so we are on the life boat but treated like stowage class.

but patience, because the ship will go down and we will be safer in our little boat.

 

Edited September 29, 2017 by GrizzlyDave