Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[GrizzlyDave]

Just now, HairyOb1 said:

Its on the Internet Dave, I am sure you've got a computer

Here you go

Computer says no. Link fail.

[HairyOb1]

Just now, GrizzlyDave said:

Computer says no. Link fail.

Doesn't on mine...

[GrizzlyDave]

5 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Its on the Internet Dave, I am sure you've got a computer

Here you go

Edit:

Oops, got that wrong, that link shows they pay 0.91% GDP, us 0.64%...

I read from the wrong column.

Can’t read it. Is that per capita?

[HairyOb1]

Just now, GrizzlyDave said:

Can’t read it. Is that per capita?

oh, cute.  But you said the amount they pay should be based on per capita GDP, which it is, and which they pay more, per capita, than we do.

They happen to house a few EU institutions so get more out.

But that's not what you asked

 

 

[GrizzlyDave]

Just now, HairyOb1 said:

oh, cute.  But you said the amount they pay should be based on per capita GDP, which it is, and which they pay more, per capita, than we do.

They happen to house a few EU institutions so get more out.

But that's not what you asked

 

 

No I know - that was just too purdey to not post!

Absolutely - the contribution per capita figure is what I’m still interested in seeing. All’s fair in that measure - imho.

[HairyOb1]

2 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

No I know - that was just too purdey to not post!

Absolutely - the contribution per capita figure is what I’m still interested in seeing. All’s fair in that measure - imho.

Net is a different beast admittedly, but that's mainly due to the EU institutions it hosts.  But it pays more than us, per capita, as does Greece and Spain!

Edited September 23, 2017 by HairyOb1

[jonb2]

Since we are doing charts - can I have a turn?

https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm

More reinforcement that the UK problems are internal - only Lithuania is worse than us in the EU.

Note the USA, our brothers in fate. This was 2014, it's 2017 and likely worse, like here.

[GrizzlyDave]

33 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Net is a different beast admittedly, but that's mainly due to the EU institutions it hosts.  But it pays more than us, per capita, as does Greece and Spain!

I think that’s what I’m getting at is a national net contribution based on a per capital income.

[HairyOb1]

9 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I think that’s what I’m getting at is a national net contribution based on a per capital income.

But that's obviously never going to be the same, as different countries need different help, have different requirements; It's about equalising standards across the EU.  Germany needs less help than Slovenia, France needs less help than Hungary.  Each year, there's a shift in balance and payments.  When we get readmitted in 15 years time, and they want to bring us back to EU standards, then we'll benefit from this equivalence (tongue firmly planted in cheek for the cheshire cat).

I keep referring to the southern states in the 80's, which I know were basket cases and are now amazing to visit.  Money has been spent on these countries to improve their infrastructure and to entice companies there to give employment and it's, to a large extent, worked.

Edited September 23, 2017 by HairyOb1

[rollover]

Quote

Theresa May could be gone within six months, Labour's election chief claims Telegraph

Will see next month how much will exiting the EU cost.

[GrizzlyDave]

46 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

But that's obviously never going to be the same, as different countries need different help, have different requirements; It's about equalising standards across the EU.  Germany needs less help than Slovenia, France needs less help than Hungary.  Each year, there's a shift in balance and payments. So calculate it annually. When we get readmitted in 15 years time, and they want to bring us back to EU standards, then we'll benefit from this equivalence (tongue firmly planted in cheek for the cheshire cat).

I keep referring to the southern states in the 80's, which I know were basket cases and are now amazing to visit.  They were amazing to visit in the 80’s. simple, pure, quiet. Money has been spent on these countries to improve their infrastructure and to entice companies there to give employment and it's, to a large extent, worked.

 

[HairyOb1]

16 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

They were amazing to visit in the 80’s. simple, pure, quiet. 

Like a third world country.

They're not now.

[Sheeple Splinter]

On 22/09/2017 at 12:03 AM, ZeroSumGame said:

Well he was a remainer ISH and he's now her inner confidant .

Hmm I wonder if Theresa May begins to play bluff or double-bluff as she brings the UK step by step back into the EU.  

Only she knows. The cabinet got her speech, but that could be pure BS to satisfy her agenda.

There are so many permutations, blue and red, only the LibDems have an unequivocal stance WRT Brexit.

My point was that, after the departure of Hill and Timothy, May was going to change her approach:

Quote

...He said the two were so close to the PM that critical MPs believed that, unless they made way, she would not be able to change her leadership style to adopt a more "outgoing, inclusive, responsive, empathetic approach"...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40231107

Well, that hasn't happened which prompted me to ask if the CoVIrt network had heard any whispers of a secret caucus/cabal other than the Legatum Institute - Dr North's article posted upthread:

 http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86556

Maybe she is following Soubry's advice?

Quote

...One former minister, Anna Soubry, welcomed the clearout, saying it was the "right thing to do" and saying the PM must "build a consensus" on Brexit and other issues....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40231107

[Sheeple Splinter]

21 hours ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Ergo, by stopping FoM into Britain wealth inequality will decrease?

Definitely.

[slawek]

2 hours ago, jonb2 said:

Since we are doing charts - can I have a turn?

https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm

More reinforcement that the UK problems are internal - only Lithuania is worse than us in the EU.

Note the USA, our brothers in fate. This was 2014, it's 2017 and likely worse, like here.

Talking of the UK inequality I like this chart. It must have been huge immigration from the EU when Thatcher was PM.  

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

20 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

So you say, but why is it that the eastern European EU members are showing such strong growth and catching up?

Massive depopulation and EU development funds. In less than five years time, Poland will have received €200bn from the EU since its accession. 

All this whilst some remainers can only see JP Morgan's Polish connection as a jibe against Brexit. 

[Sheeple Splinter]

20 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Have you any evidence for this. In the case of the UK several studies have failed to find any link.  

Yes:

Quote

...UK studies find that immigration has small impact on average wages but more significant impacts along the wage distribution: low-waged workers lose while medium and high-paid workers gain...

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-labour-market-effects-of-immigration/

and

Quote

...2. The socio-economic divide: income and wealth inequality Income and wealth are the first – and perhaps the most salient – aspects of the socio-economic divide in Europe. The “Great Divide” pertains not only to growing gaps between the bottom and the top of the income distribution within European countries but also to diverging trends between countries. The range of inequality levels prevailing in Europe is so wide that it is difficult to consider a “single European model”, and that also holds for trends. For a number of reasons – in particular relating to changes in the labour market and in redistribution – income inequality has increased in most European countries during the past three decades. Moreover, the profile of individuals at the bottom of the income distribution has also changed: The most vulnerable are no longer the elderly, but rather young people and families with children. The deep economic crisis and the often mild recovery in many European countries have been associated with stabilisation if not further increase in income inequality. In all European countries, tax and transfer policies are contributing significantly to reducing market income inequality, but some welfare systems manage that redistribution better than others...

https://www.oecd.org/els/soc/cope-divide-europe-2017-background-report.pdf

My bold/underline

[Confusion of VIs]

12 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Yes:

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-labour-market-effects-of-immigration/

and

https://www.oecd.org/els/soc/cope-divide-europe-2017-background-report.pdf

My bold/underline

I did see those reports but was wondering if you had seen something that pointed to a more significant impact. The reported effect is so small that it could easily be a side effect of increasing employment levels (as the % employed rises it pulls in less skilled/experienced workers so drops average wages) not fully taken into account. In any case by itself it's not big enough to justify a major change in government policy.

 

 

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

32 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I did see those reports but was wondering if you had seen something that pointed to a more significant impact. The reported effect is so small that it could easily be a side effect of increasing employment levels (as the % employed rises it pulls in less skilled/experienced workers so drops average wages) not fully taken into account. In any case by itself it's not big enough to justify a major change in government policy.

You mean looking around on my travels? 

Quote

...'I’ve got eyes!' Hartley-Brewer slates europhile in heated clash on EU freedom of movement

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/835092/Brexit-eu-uk-hartley-brewer-talkradio-freedom-movement-europe-brussels-european-union-rudd

 

Have to wait for the MAC report...

Edit to add: I've only seen similar/older reports.

Edited September 23, 2017 by Sheeple Splinter

[thecrashingisles]

1 hour ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Massive depopulation and EU development funds. In less than five years time, Poland will have received €200bn from the EU since its accession. 

All this whilst some remainers can only see JP Morgan's Polish connection as a jibe against Brexit. 

Depopulation creates growth does it?

[Sheeple Splinter]

2 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

Depopulation creates growth does it?

In EE countries? Depends on the starting point. E.g. 40 million on subsistence, progresses to 20 million on subsistence, 10 million working in new economic activities like...JP Morgan, Cadbury and 10 million remitting monies back for the home economy.

[thecrashingisles]

7 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

In EE countries? Depends on the starting point. E.g. 40 million on subsistence, progresses to 20 million on subsistence, 10 million working in new economic activities like...JP Morgan, Cadbury and 10 million remitting monies back for the home economy.

Where has the population dropped by 10 million?  The only countries which have shown a really significant decline are the Baltic states, and the trend there goes back to 1991 so nothing to do with the EU.  A big factor is ethnic Russians moving to Russia.

Edited September 23, 2017 by thecrashingisles

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

There are so many permutations, blue and red, only the LibDems have an unequivocal stance WRT Brexit.

My point was that, after the departure of Hill and Timothy, May was going to change her approach:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40231107

Well, that hasn't happened which prompted me to ask if the CoVIrt network had heard any whispers of a secret caucus/cabal other than the Legatum Institute - Dr North's article posted upthread:

 http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86556

Maybe she is following Soubry's advice?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40231107

Something I have heard doing the rounds, is that a "final" version of May's speech was going to commit to a two year time limited transition after which if an acceptable deal was not implemented we would leave without one. However, the civil service are adamant that a two year transition period was nowhere near long enough to either implement any sort of bespoke deal or to leave without a deal and forced her to remove any reference to a specific end date.

Although the change was included in the version discussed in cabinet, it took many of the Tory right wing by surprise and they are not at all happy.

Listening again to her speech with this in mind and it is clear that despite her saying and much reporting of a "double lock" the transition period is open-ended.   

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Something I have heard doing the rounds, is that a "final" version of May's speech was going to commit to a two year time limited transition after which if an acceptable deal was not implemented we would leave without one. However, the civil service are adamant that a two year transition period was nowhere near long enough to either implement any sort of bespoke deal or to leave without a deal and forced her to remove any reference to a specific end date.

Although the change was included in the version discussed in cabinet, it took many of the Tory right wing by surprise and they are not at all happy.

Listening again to her speech with this in mind and it is clear that despite her saying and much reporting of a "double lock" the transition period is open-ended.   

Interesting, thanks. 

IIRC, the blue ultras are a minority, 50 odd? Why do you think she is pandering to them?

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

Where has the population dropped by 10 million?  The only countries which have shown a really significant decline are the Baltic states, and the trend there goes back to 1991 so nothing to do with the EU.  A big factor is ethnic Russians moving to Russia.

It was just a fag packet example, unfiltered even...  

Starting points, nature of economic activities, EU and ex-pat funding accepted presumably?