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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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HOLA441
3 minutes ago, slawek said:

It is due to different inflation rates for exported goods.

Both EU and non-EU good export volumes were flat after around 2010 till 2020. The graph you posted is using current prices and includes services.

 image.png.1b8d0a660c8c2cfe29b958ba8332b987.png

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/tradeingoodsmretsallbopeu2013timeseriesspreadsheet

Exports of services (current prices) grew with EU and non-EU

image.png.2758ab4d8cf26e98e38ded34900a6428.png

https://www.ons.gov.uk/timeseriestool?query=trade services exports eu&topic=%2Feconomy%2Fnationalaccounts%2Fbalanceofpayments&updated=&fromDateDay=&fromDateMonth=&fromDateYear=&toDateDay=&toDateMonth=&toDateYear=&size=10

 

The most notable thing on those graphs is the dramatic uptick in non-EU services exports post-Brexit.

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HOLA442
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HOLA444
11 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

That doesn't explain the disparity between EU and non-EU.

EU and non-EU growth rates since Q4 2019 are close, 17% vs 22%. The 5% discrepancy could be due to different inflation rates, e.g. a different mixture of sold services.  

The ratio of EU to non-EU exports is almost unchanged since around 2010.

image.png.9208f0c4862f102b7d3892723e1d7354.png

Edited by slawek
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HOLA445
6 hours ago, muyuubyou said:

when i first registered i was living between Japan and Spain, I had not been active since i moved to the UK in 2009 - so I'm sort of new, but was registered and participated in 2005 (i participated more in a similar board that apparently is defunct now, i was looking for some of my posts there to no avail)

brexiteers have a point that the UK entered what effectively is a political union and a superstate without any consultations and against sectors of the population, because the switch from the EEC to the EU (Maastricht accord) is pretty extreme and has a lot of ramifications, I don't believe there would have been Brexit if it remained just a common market

you cannot lie about the EU for 40 years when the EU only really exists since 1993 which was 30 years ago

having said that, I don't think it's unreasonable to revisit the issue in 20 years and see what kind of relationship is best to pursue with the EU, if it exists as it is now and if they have any interest in welcoming a member that was always out of step with the core of it

i think the EU should drastically reform to allow for the UK to have a decent fit in it, perhaps not as a decision-making member but a close associate like Norway, Turkey, Switzerland and Iceland - but I believe it's very early to be having this conversation if nothing else because the UK would find massive opposition to rejoin and would be a mere supplicant, when it's not even clear if it would be a good idea for the UK

 

Same old crap under a different posting name. Welcome back.

Quote

brexiteers have a point that the UK entered what effectively is a political union and a superstate without any consultations and against sectors of the population, because the switch from the EEC to the EU (Maastricht accord) is pretty extreme and has a lot of ramifications, I don't believe there would have been Brexit if it remained just a common market

It never was just a common market. I really wish brexiters (of which you are one despite your fake persona) would learn the truth about what they hate so passionately. It was always much more, and it was made clear to everyone in the 1975 referendum. Please stop repeating these lies.

I also bet that you can't name the things about Maastricht that you were unhappy about.

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HOLA446
7 hours ago, muyuubyou said:

they did

I can sympathise with those who voted for Brexit and still people in 2023 go around with some portfolio in their hand asking for their opinion on Brexit, to which they understandably tell them to f**** off, so they are underrepresented in the polls systematically

there was a pretty definite poll, it happened on 23 June 2016; the rest are suspect and invalid to take as fact and to construct narratives upon

Screenshot from 2023-02-09 14-30-28.png

52% is a clear win!?!?! LMFAO 🤣🤣🤣🤣

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HOLA449
1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

It never was just a common market. I really wish brexiters (of which you are one despite your fake persona) would learn the truth about what they hate so passionately. It was always much more, and it was made clear to everyone in the 1975 referendum. Please stop repeating these lies.

This is true but misleading. It's true that at the time we joined, there were ambitious plans on the table for things like a single currency, but this was thrown off course by the oil shock and other events, so even by the time of the 1975 referendum it was seen as something that would quite possibly never happen.

Edited by thecrashingisles
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HOLA4410
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HOLA4411
2 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Same old crap under a different posting name. Welcome back.

It never was just a common market. I really wish brexiters (of which you are one despite your fake persona) would learn the truth about what they hate so passionately. It was always much more, and it was made clear to everyone in the 1975 referendum. Please stop repeating these lies.

I also bet that you can't name the things about Maastricht that you were unhappy about.

It sounds foreign. That's all that matters to Brexiters nowdays.

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HOLA4412
2 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Same old crap under a different posting name. Welcome back.

It never was just a common market. I really wish brexiters (of which you are one despite your fake persona) would learn the truth about what they hate so passionately. It was always much more, and it was made clear to everyone in the 1975 referendum. Please stop repeating these lies.

I also bet that you can't name the things about Maastricht that you were unhappy about.

same user all along ( 

btw by the time of Maastricht I was too young to have much of an opinion but my geography & history teacher was very positive about it (this was in Spain). Maastricht was perhaps not such a bad deal for my country, for the UK I don't know but they've made their call and that has to be respected. I personally believe much more in the UK than in my country of origin to leave the EU, partly because once in the euro it would be tantamount to declaring bankruptcy, on top of the rest of the challenges, and partly because the UK is too much of a loss for the EU export market to play hard ball.

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HOLA4413
9 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Why does rejoinging need actually quantifying? Brex_hiteers never quantified what leaving meant so why should rejoing do otherwise? 🤡🤡🤡🤡

Because unfortunately for you losers, you aren't going to get us back in with such a simplistic question as we got us out with. People just saying they want to rejoin is meaningless without quantifying what is it they want to rejoin. What exactly would you like to rejoin monsieur?

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HOLA4414
19 minutes ago, Cocha said:

Because unfortunately for you losers, you aren't going to get us back in with such a simplistic question as we got us out with. People just saying they want to rejoin is meaningless without quantifying what is it they want to rejoin. What exactly would you like to rejoin monsieur?

I'm not sure that a question to re-join will have to be that complicated.

If Brexit continues on it's current trajectory of making us poorer I suspect the nature of the question will be irrelevant. People will vote with their wallet in mind.

The real question is will the EU want us after Brexit has damaged the UK so badly, both economically and politically. I suspect the answer to that is no they won't, at least not yet. 

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HOLA4415
1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

I'm not sure that a question to re-join will have to be that complicated.

If Brexit continues on it's current trajectory of making us poorer I suspect the nature of the question will be irrelevant. People will vote with their wallet in mind.

The real question is will the EU want us after Brexit has damaged the UK so badly, both economically and politically. I suspect the answer to that is no they won't, at least not yet. 

Bearing in mind many people didn't vote financially either way, but just to be rid of EU rule, then I think you are being somewhat optimistic. FoM and the Euro as a minimum will be 2 key issues alone, let alone the future direction the EU intends to take. This will all come under much scrutiny and questioning.

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HOLA4416
7 minutes ago, Cocha said:

Bearing in mind many people didn't vote financially either way, but just to be rid of EU rule, then I think you are being somewhat optimistic. FoM and the Euro as a minimum will be 2 key issues alone, let alone the future direction the EU intends to take. This will all come under much scrutiny and questioning.

I suspect that the major constraints/condition for re-joining will be laid on the table and made clear well before any vote takes place.

As for how significant the Euro/FoM is will depend on how well or badly Brexit has faired.

In short, the way Brexit is going at the moment, I expect that we will start to accept the standard deal that any other country has to join. There may be a bit of wrangling around the edges to make it paletable, but that's all. 

 

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HOLA4417
10 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

JESUS WEPT!!! CAN JUST ONE OF THE 2016 CLOWN VOTERS ACTUALLY GIVE US A TANGIBLE BENFIT TO BREX_HIT? IS IT THAT HARD???? 🤡🤡🤡🤡

Errr. . . the EU is just about to collapse? as virtually every clown brex shter told us back in . . . 2016!!!!

Fkin hell, just proves how completely fckin useless Brex shters are. 

Oh and bent bananas and recently. . . mealworm!!! Lol !! 

Oh and Cocha is/has? set up an electric car battery plant? maybe, he's being all coy on things. 

Wot a fckin bunch of trairor ars*holes. 

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HOLA4418
1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

I suspect that the major constraints/condition for re-joining will be laid on the table and made clear well before any vote takes place.

As for how significant the Euro/FoM is will depend on how well or badly Brexit has faired.

In short, the way Brexit is going at the moment, I expect that we will start to accept the standard deal that any other country has to join. There may be a bit of wrangling around the edges to make it paletable, but that's all. 

 

Regardless of how the economy is or isn't going, there will be huge resistance to FoM and the Euro and that is my point about this being laid out on the table from the off. People will vote against such things regardless of anything else.

I guess we will just have to see. In the meantime, we can all keep disagreeing in here to pass the time.

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HOLA4419
2 minutes ago, miguel said:

Errr. . . the EU is just about to collapse? as virtually every clown brex shter told us back in . . . 2016!!!!

Fkin hell, just proves how completely fckin useless Brex shters are. 

Oh and bent bananas and recently. . . mealworm!!! Lol !! 

Oh and Cocha is/has? set up an electric car battery plant? maybe, he's being all coy on things. 

Wot a fckin bunch of trairor ars*holes. 

Well at least Brexit failed in one good respect. It failed to dis-unite our collective response to Russian aggression in Ukraine. 

Putin wanted Brexit for this reason. Brexiteers are in denial, totally blind or complicite to this.

Brexit didn't do us any favours for sure, but it failed to damage us in our unity with our allies, and for that at least we have to be grateful.

Likewise Trump and his right wing red-necks supporters who sought to overturn the constitution. Putin failed there too.

Brexit is really just a small piece of a bigger geopolitical puzzle that is unravelling fast.

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HOLA4420
9 minutes ago, Cocha said:

Regardless of how the economy is or isn't going, there will be huge resistance to FoM and the Euro and that is my point about this being laid out on the table from the off. People will vote against such things regardless of anything else.

I guess we will just have to see. In the meantime, we can all keep disagreeing in here to pass the time.

You guys carry on 'being happy' and defending the Brexit status quo to the hilt and I'm sure it will work itself out. ;)

 

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HOLA4421
5 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

You guys carry on 'being happy' and defending the Brexit status quo to the hilt and I'm sure it will work itself out. ;)

 

And you keep wishing us back into the EU off the back of a few undefined polls of a few thousand people. If there was really such a string undercurrent for rejoining "something", I'm sure a political party would be picking up on this.

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HOLA4422
5 minutes ago, Cocha said:

And you keep wishing us back into the EU off the back of a few undefined polls of a few thousand people. If there was really such a string undercurrent for rejoining "something", I'm sure a political party would be picking up on this.

Just keep doing what Brexit is doing, as I said, things will work themselves out. That is what democracy is about. And I'm happy for that to be the case either way. 

Edited by IMHAL
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HOLA4423
17 minutes ago, Cocha said:

And you keep wishing us back into the EU off the back of a few undefined polls of a few thousand people. If there was really such a string undercurrent for rejoining "something", I'm sure a political party would be picking up on this.

You're drooling has proven that there was no undercurrent for leaving, just a mosiac of interests that the Br*xit unicorns promised and failed to deliver each and every time.

Now your chickens are coming home to roost and you are snarling and crying

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HOLA4424
50 minutes ago, msi said:

You're drooling has proven that there was no undercurrent for leaving, just a mosiac of interests that the Br*xit unicorns promised and failed to deliver each and every time.

Now your chickens are coming home to roost and you are snarling and crying

I thought I was supposed to be on ignore?

What chickens? I'm fine and happy with things, Brexit is delivering for me, all the snarling and crying and anger and foot stamping and desperation is coming from the remainers in here. It's like a microcosm of AC Graylings twitter feed! 

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HOLA4425
53 minutes ago, Cocha said:

I thought I was supposed to be on ignore?

What chickens? I'm fine and happy with things, Brexit is delivering for me, all the snarling and crying and anger and foot stamping and desperation is coming from the remainers in here. It's like a microcosm of AC Graylings twitter feed! 

Unlike you I keep an open mind and check your drooling in case you can make a grown up point. You can't point to a single promised kept and wail I'm AlRiGhT jAcK.  You disappoint me yet again so on ignore you go.

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