Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[thehowler]

11 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Where exactly is that, once you go down that route you very quickly conclude that it makes sense to retain full alignment

But we will be able to decide - if you're right, we align, if not, we diverge and deal with the admin hassle.

[pig]

46 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Why, because we won't be members of the Single Market? Or do you think it's a ploy to kill time until we have to crash out?

CP looks like a workable solution to me - and to moderates like Clarke - if the EU can swallow it. Once you accept that all talk of reversing Brexit and holding a 2nd referendum is a waste of breath (as I think the EU have) then CP makes a lot of sense.

I’m not criticising the CP option at all.

I don’t know if its a ‘ploy’ but then this is the whole point. May and her weak government, the opposition even, are left shouldering the blame while the hard Brexiters get what they want.

Sure, for the paranoid, after Rudd was booted out Im pretty sure I read Javid was enlisted to kill off the CP option.

If you kill off all options worth considering, keep the government paralysed, then you end up with your Batshit Brexit.

’Will of the people’ is now a similar kind of epic misdirection and escape from  democratic accountability for ideological indulgence as  ‘it’s the mess we inherited’. Even Hannan is piping up.

 

[Confusion of VIs]

13 minutes ago, thehowler said:

But we will be able to decide - if you're right, we align, if not, we diverge and deal with the admin hassle.

Will you, or more importantly the Brexit voters, be happy to carry on paying into the EU for this right.  Also it's quite possible the EU may want us tp pay more for this a la carte option than we currently pay for full membership.

 

[HairyOb1]

On 13/05/2018 at 09:27, ZeroSumGame said:

A million or so 16 year olds have become eligible to vote since 2016. A million or so Boomers have passed away and with them 80% NO votes. 16 year olds were denied the vote (- c.f. the Scottish Indy referendum.) And of course the British Johnny Foreigners abroad who were also denied a vote.

Agree. One or two might be wiser  though, now they see the direction of travel (Brownian motion),

750,000 people turn 18 every year I read over the weekend.

That's an extremely large amount of pissed off.

500,000 to 600,000 die every year.

That's an awful lot of Tories and brexiteers kicking the bucket.

This, alone, is why the Tories are doomed.  They will lose generations by locking them out, and lose the very support that maintains them at the same time. At one stage. the balance will shift and they're doomed.

On top of that, you have the party infighting for power over Brexit, and if they do not deliver a Brexit of any reality, they lose that vote too.

This is why I think the Labour Party are keeping their powder dry.  All they have to do is appease the under 50's and they're in.  My eldest turns 18 in time for the next vote.  She's a potential middle class Tory, given what she's going to study, but she\'s not, no are her fiends, as they feel shafted by the government; old people who had free educations voting away free education for us, being one of the refrains...

[thehowler]

15 minutes ago, pig said:

If you kill off all options worth considering, keep the government paralysed, then you end up with your Batshit Brexit.

They can't duck the HoC vote on Customs Union. If May doesn't come forward with CP or similar the rebels or Mogg will force her out.

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, thehowler said:

They can't duck the HoC vote on Customs Union. If May doesn't come forward with CP or similar the rebels or Mogg will force her out.

They have 14 amendments to try and halt.  I think 4 have a realistic chance of going through if nothing happens as per concessions - I think we're coming up to a crunch fortnight for Mays survival.

[kzb]

11 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Will you, or more importantly the Brexit voters, be happy to carry on paying into the EU for this right.  Also it's quite possible the EU may want us tp pay more for this a la carte option than we currently pay for full membership.

 

I'm not saying it is likely to happen.  As you say it is cake and eat it, so they will scupper it.  Perhaps one of their weapons will be demanding an exorbitant contribution, precisely to stop it.

Also, if we get it, everyone else will want it.

[thehowler]

12 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Will you, or more importantly the Brexit voters, be happy to carry on paying into the EU for this right.

May/Davis said we'd get unhindered/zero tariff access to the SM - never said it would be free. There's already been talk of the money being listed as a cost to help maintain NI border.

All the usual talking head gripers seem to be coming round to CP. It sucks in many ways, but it sucketh less than the rest.

[Confusion of VIs]

5 minutes ago, thehowler said:

They can't duck the HoC vote on Customs Union. If May doesn't come forward with CP or similar the rebels or Mogg will force her out.

May will probably plod on with whatever is decided by the HoC

 

[kzb]

16 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

750,000 people turn 18 every year I read over the weekend.

That's an extremely large amount of pissed off.

500,000 to 600,000 die every year.

That's an awful lot of Tories and brexiteers kicking the bucket.

<EDIT>

How many times have we been round this circle now?

Just remember, Peter Hitchens was a Trot. when he was young. 

[HairyOb1]

4 minutes ago, kzb said:

How many times have we been round this circle now?

Just remember, Peter Hitchens was a Trot. when he was young. 

That kind of proves my argument though.  

[ccc]

4 minutes ago, kzb said:

How many times have we been round this circle now?

Just remember, Peter Hitchens was a Trot. when he was young. 

The lifelong 100% guaranteed completely proven over and over again life change of becoming more cynical as you get older will now completely end because some remainers want it to.

 

 

I refer to my earlier post. Complete and utter delusion. 

[jonb2]

17 minutes ago, ccc said:

The lifelong 100% guaranteed completely proven over and over again life change of becoming more cynical as you get older will now completely end because some remainers want it to.

 

 

I refer to my earlier post. Complete and utter delusion. 

Have you killed your interpreter?

[kzb]

20 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

That kind of proves my argument though.  

How?

[ccc]

1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

Have you killed your interpreter?

You can't argue my point. You could just admit that. 

[HairyOb1]

25 minutes ago, ccc said:

The lifelong 100% guaranteed completely proven over and over again life change of becoming more cynical as you get older will now completely end because some remainers want it to.

 

 

I refer to my earlier post. Complete and utter delusion. 

So you read it.

Glad we cleared that up.

If more young people are being born, than older people dying, then it still means more people are being born than dying, so we will see that in demographics.  There's a net difference of around 250,000 people being born, than dying.

I'll leave you to do the maths on that one Einstein.

[HairyOb1]

8 minutes ago, kzb said:

How?

You're arguing some people get more cynical as they get older, more right wing which I'd actually disagree with this, if anything, I have moved to the left as have a lot of friends.  So you're using fable against fact: there are more births than deaths.  By a large number.  You cannot begin to believe this is offset by a Volta face somewhere in middle age...

If more young people are being born, than dying, the support for the left, and I'd suggest remain, grows, and the opposite for the right wing and leave.

I'd also add that you're talking about boomers and pre boomers (no idea what they're called), and sentiments have changed in the past 10 years.  People aged 50-60 now are not the same 50-60 year olds of 1980, etc, etc.  If anything, I think as people are growing older now, they're realising how shanked they are under the conservatives, and their kids.  Those whom I speak to are anyway.

 

 

 

 

[kzb]

44 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

You're arguing some people get more cynical as they get older, more right wing which I'd actually disagree with this, if anything, I have moved to the left as have a lot of friends.  <EDIT>

The generation that are dying off now are the generation that voted 2:1 to Remain back in 1974.  At the behest of the Tories and opposed by the Left.

[GrizzlyDave]

1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

So you read it.

Glad we cleared that up.

If more young people are being born, than older people dying, then it still means more people are being born than dying, so we will see that in demographics.  There's a net difference of around 250,000 people being born, than dying.

I'll leave you to do the maths on that one Einstein.

What was the young split? 2/3rds for remain?

What percentage of young people vote?

Edited May 14, 2018 by GrizzlyDave

[ccc]

13 minutes ago, kzb said:

The generation that are dying off now are the generation that voted 2:1 to Remain back in 1974.  At the behest of the Tories and opposed by the Left.

Strange that. All these people that were loving the EU gradually over time got to the point of not loving it.

Who would have thought.

It's ok though. That's now going to end. For good. 

[rollover]

Quote

A leader Conservative Brexiter, the MEP Daniel Hannan, has said that if MPs vote to keep the UK in the customs union, he would back a second Brexit referendum or a general election, to allow the public to have the final say.

Generally Brexiters oppose a second referendum, and pressure for one is coming almost entirely from the remain camp, but Hannan’s words could be a sign that this may be starting to change. Guardian

They are getting desperate or they see it as opportunity to get off the hook.

Also coming to the same conclusion, backs second referendum on Brexit, as Nigel Farage did in January.

Edited May 14, 2018 by rollover

[jonb2]

1 hour ago, ccc said:

You can't argue my point. You could just admit that. 

Not sure what your point was old chap. Normally I am, even though I can't agree with much.

Any old how - here's something to munch on. I posted this graph on another thread. I thought it might help enlighten leavers of the problem, it's not Brexit - see if you can all spot it.

https://ourworldindata.org/income-inequality

 

[ccc]

1 minute ago, jonb2 said:

Not sure what your point was old chap. Normally I am, even though I can't agree with much.

Any old how - here's something to munch on. I posted this graph on another thread. I thought it might help enlighten leavers of the problem, it's not Brexit - see if you can all spot it.

https://ourworldindata.org/income-inequality

 

The point is simple. The idea that all the youngsters of today will continue the love in for the EU is downright ludicrous.

So what's your responses to that most simple of point. You disagree ?

Of course you don't. Admitting that would be admitting your are stupid. So you will just skirt around the edges. 

It's delusion. End of story. 

[jonb2]

5 minutes ago, ccc said:

The point is simple. The idea that all the youngsters of today will continue the love in for the EU is downright ludicrous.

So what's your responses to that most simple of point. You disagree ?

Of course you don't. Admitting that would be admitting your are stupid. So you will just skirt around the edges. 

It's delusion. End of story. 

Well I genuinely had no idea what argument you were referring to. Without quoting, it's difficult and my mind-reading module is on the blink.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted/

Those that voted for Brexit don't have to worry about work or houses and they remember the war, cricket on the green, warm beer, tea and crumpets.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, rollover said:

They are getting desperate or they see it as opportunity to get off the hook.

Also coming to the same conclusion, backs second referendum on Brexit, as Nigel Farage did in January.

Yes, reality is starting to intrude in their fantasies.

Portillo on this week, admitted that we had ended the risk of the UK being dragged into ever closer union even before the referendum vote and is now agnostic about whether we stay in the single market/customs union.

Seems like they realise which way the wind is blowing. The best they are now hoping for is avoiding disaster or losing a "no deal" referendum by accepting a BRINO.