Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Riedquat]

2 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Or, quite possibly, we truly believe the outcomes will be as we state them to be, that's not being dogmatic, that's having an opinion.

Interesting, since "belief" and "dogma" are so often close bedfellows.

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, Riedquat said:

Interesting, since "belief" and "dogma" are so often close bedfellows.

Semantics.  I am simply saying if you look at the tea leaves, currently, it leads you to this, well, it leads me to it.  If anyone thinks this government is worried about the general public, then they're misguided.

[jonb2]

12 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

The reality is no trade deals? What reason do you have to believe that's what'll happen? Of course there aren't any yet, as others have pointed out. No, your post there is just another example of "it'll definitely be terrible" dogma. And remember it has to be terrible to convince me, if it's a little bit worse I really couldn't care less since, as has been repeatedly pointed out, it's not really about money so only enough of a loss of money to be a disaster matters.

They said the world be queuing up. They said a lot of things which have turned out to be untrue. Cake and eat it. Money for the NHS. Nobody planned anything - like NI.

And you leavers STILL have faith in this lot???

Was that wind that just rushed past me, or Tory farts?

Edited May 1, 2018 by jonb2

[jonb2]

19 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

... fail. ?

Can the UK negotiate trade deals before March 2019?

Can you list any country which has stated it will not trade with the UK after Brexit?

Swiss announcement:

https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/media-releases.msg-id-70536.html

My links vs your links

EU does deal with Mexico

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-782_en.htm

If Japan are worried, we should be

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/22/koji-tsuruoka-japan-ambassador-britain-brexit-single-market

They need us more than we need them?

https://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2018/04/18/why-is-the-eu-in-no-hurry-for-a-trade-deal/

 

 

[ccc]

9 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

They said the world be queuing up. They said a lot of things which have turned out to be untrue. Cake and eat it. Money for the NHS. Nobody planned anything - like NI.

And you leavers STILL have faith in this lot???

Was that wind that just rushed past me, or Tory farts?

It was you who pointed out Fox had been round and round the planet. How many of these countries have bumped him ? Any ? And as already pointed out no deals can be made just now. So what do you think they have been discussing ? The latest rape story in Corrie ?

This entire trade thing has been gone over and over and over again - its painful.

We are the planets ~6th largest economy out of around 200. Anyone who thinks the vast majority of World countries are not extremely keen on getting deals sorted with us asap is quite frankly lacking in basic logical thinking ability.

[thehowler]

13 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

They said a lot of things which have turned out to be untrue.

You believed what the politicians were telling you?

[thehowler]

15 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

And you leavers STILL have faith in this lot???

I don't think anyone on the thread has ever said this, far too world-weary a bunch. But I do recognize the validity of the vote and think it will be better for the country if we enact it rather than attempt to smoke and mirror our way out of it.

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, thehowler said:

You believed what the politicians were telling you?

It appears many brexiteers did, not too sure about the remain side.

[thehowler]

3 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

It appears many brexiteers did

On the whole I get the impression they voted for reasons of their own, sentiments around national identity, future direction of nation, possible economic benefits, that kind of stuff. I don't think it was Boris and the bus, I think that's always been a remainer whine.

[Riedquat]

28 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Semantics.  I am simply saying if you look at the tea leaves, currently, it leads you to this, well, it leads me to it.  If anyone thinks this government is worried about the general public, then they're misguided.

If you look at the tea leaves it leads to a not vastly implausible situation that we'll be a bit worse off financially,  which is a long, long way from the dogmatic certainty of a disaster. By all means express your opinion that it will be disastrous but the apparent degree of confidence in that outcome is not built on solid foundations.

I've never though any government is worried by the general public. I do think that the EU governmental organisations are even less worried by the general public though.

[HairyOb1]

6 minutes ago, thehowler said:

I don't think anyone on the thread has ever said this, far too world-weary a bunch. But I do recognize the validity of the vote and think it will be better for the country if we enact it rather than attempt to smoke and mirror our way out of it.

This is where we differ, as I don't recognise its validity, as it was flawed from the outset; some can go on about how they knew precisely what they were voting for, too many apparently didn't,  the case of CA getting involved, the funding questions, and a lot more to boot, have raised too many questions, in my opinion.  

Once we have visibility of the actual deal we're agreeing to, maybe then it should be put to the vote, with it spelled out, clearly, in black and white, what we're doing, maybe then it will stop half the country being p1ssed at the other half for a couple of generations.

[Sheeple Splinter]

11 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

My links vs your links

EU does deal with Mexico

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-782_en.htm

If Japan are worried, we should be

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/22/koji-tsuruoka-japan-ambassador-britain-brexit-single-market

They need us more than we need them?

https://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2018/04/18/why-is-the-eu-in-no-hurry-for-a-trade-deal/

 

?

So no list then?

I have provided plenty of links to the EU's failure to achieve FTA's with the USA, China, India & Mercosur.

Which is, let's face it, odd, since it is often portrayed as a mighty superpower. 

The EU does not want to lose the UK from its bloc because it knows it will be:

a) Geopolitically & economically weakened

b) The UK will succeed.

WRT Mercosur:

Quote

Last round of EU/Mercosur “useful”, but key issues remain to be resolved...

http://en.mercopress.com/2018/04/30/last-round-of-eu-mercosur-useful-but-key-issues-remain-to-be-resolved

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Faced with inconvenient truths , you resort to yet more hypocrisy whilst displaying your inability to deal with the points I raised.

You originally asked this question.

"Why would anyone want to stay in the EU when it has member states that are racist and xenophobic?"

1 hour ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

For those that thought this was all over...

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-migration-crisis-italy-spain-rebels-bulgaria-dublin-quotas-proposal/

The answer lies in the article above - because the EU is trying to do the right thing despite the xenophobic tendencies of some nations.... so thanks for posting that. Which is the point I made to your question originally.....if you had been listening.

[HairyOb1]

4 minutes ago, thehowler said:

On the whole I get the impression they voted for reasons of their own, sentiments around national identity, future direction of nation, possible economic benefits, that kind of stuff. I don't think it was Boris and the bus, I think that's always been a remainer whine.

There were many reasons, possibly why there's been a lot who've changed their minds.  However, I do think Boris lying, along with Farage's scaremongering, helped the vote.  CA most certainly did, as they've been praised for doing so post referendum.  It isn't a whine, it's something they attributed to the success of the campaign

Just now, Riedquat said:

If you look at the tea leaves it leads to a not vastly implausible situation that we'll be a bit worse off financially,  which is a long, long way from the dogmatic certainty of a disaster. By all means express your opinion that it will be disastrous but the apparent degree of confidence in that outcome is not built on solid foundations.

I've never though any government is worried by the general public. I do think that the EU governmental organisations are even less worried by the general public though.

Did you learn a new word today RQ

It also leads to a not implausible situation that we are actually fundamentally worse off, remember, for every 1% of GDP, we're talking £10m and more, so given Brexit, before it's happened, has led to the loss of over 1% of GDP (according to ONS, BoE, et al), you can kiss goodbye to the £350m a week, before it gets worse.  All I know is what is being reported, from various sources, and you tend to get an idea of the impact, by reading various sources, from all parts of the political spectrum.  Not one legitimate report I have seen, has said we come out of it favourably.

If you're not worried by something, how can someone else be less worried?  Surely if you're not worried, it's fairly binary, so that point is silly really.

[jonb2]

22 minutes ago, ccc said:

It was you who pointed out Fox had been round and round the planet. How many of these countries have bumped him ? Any ? And as already pointed out no deals can be made just now. So what do you think they have been discussing ? The latest rape story in Corrie ?

This entire trade thing has been gone over and over and over again - its painful.

We are the planets ~6th largest economy out of around 200. Anyone who thinks the vast majority of World countries are not extremely keen on getting deals sorted with us asap is quite frankly lacking in basic logical thinking ability.

Keep on believing the Tories laddie.

[jonb2]

22 minutes ago, thehowler said:

You believed what the politicians were telling you?

Did I say that? Again context mangling.

[jonb2]

14 minutes ago, thehowler said:

On the whole I get the impression they voted for reasons of their own, sentiments around national identity, future direction of nation, possible economic benefits, that kind of stuff. I don't think it was Boris and the bus, I think that's always been a remainer whine.

Of course Boris and the bus was part of it. Farage and his poster were also part of it. DD & Fox's super-claims were part of it. All propaganda, all standard fare from the right scoffers.

Anybody that says otherwise is being disingenuous

[IMHAL]

6 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

?

So no list then?

I have provided plenty of links to the EU's failure to achieve FTA's with the USA, China, India & Mercosur.

Which is, let's face it, odd, since it is often portrayed as a mighty superpower. 

The EU does not want to lose the UK from its bloc because it knows it will be:

a) Geopolitically & economically weakened

b) The UK will succeed.

WRT Mercosur:

http://en.mercopress.com/2018/04/30/last-round-of-eu-mercosur-useful-but-key-issues-remain-to-be-resolved

And there was me thinking that the reason that the EU did not sign an FTA with China and India is because the EU insists that intellectual property rights are respected and that China and India want this clause 'set-aside'.

But don't let that little detail spoil your big scoop.

And how do you think the UK will fair with these countries that want to steal our intellectual property?.... I suppose you are happy to hand that all over on a plate...... who's side are you on?

[Guest]

54 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

... fail. ?

Can the UK negotiate trade deals before March 2019?

Can you list any country which has stated it will not trade with the UK after Brexit?

Swiss announcement:

https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/media-releases.msg-id-70536.html

Very interesting, thank you for posting.

I remember about a decade ago talking to a nice old lady in a bar in Switzerland. I foolishly asked her if she thought that Switzerland would ever join the EU - she astonished me by - literally - shouting out 'over my dead body'.

The poor bu66ers are surrounded by the EU, without our strong maritime links, vast seas, commonwealth/anglo connections, etc.They'll want to preserve one of their few free routes out, imo.

[jonb2]

15 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

If you look at the tea leaves it leads to a not vastly implausible situation that we'll be a bit worse off financially,  which is a long, long way from the dogmatic certainty of a disaster. By all means express your opinion that it will be disastrous but the apparent degree of confidence in that outcome is not built on solid foundations.

I've never though any government is worried by the general public. I do think that the EU governmental organisations are even less worried by the general public though.

I think that's an increasing trend RQ. Which is why we're in the mess we're in.

But 94.56% of the harm is caused by our government's myopia. incompetence, self-interest and lack of responsibility.

[jonb2]

16 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

?

So no list then?

I have provided plenty of links to the EU's failure to achieve FTA's with the USA, China, India & Mercosur.

Which is, let's face it, odd, since it is often portrayed as a mighty superpower. 

The EU does not want to lose the UK from its bloc because it knows it will be:

a) Geopolitically & economically weakened

b) The UK will succeed.

WRT Mercosur:

http://en.mercopress.com/2018/04/30/last-round-of-eu-mercosur-useful-but-key-issues-remain-to-be-resolved

Succeed at what? Trade deals? Making more things to sell abroad?

If I told you you could sell to 10 people or 50 in one swoop - which would you choose?

[kzb]

6 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

There were many reasons, possibly why there's been a lot who've changed their minds.  However, I do think Boris lying, along with Farage's scaremongering, helped the vote.  CA most certainly did, as they've been praised for doing so post referendum.  It isn't a whine, it's something they attributed to the success of the campaign

Did you learn a new word today RQ

It also leads to a not implausible situation that we are actually fundamentally worse off, remember, for every 1% of GDP, we're talking £10m and more, so given Brexit, before it's happened, has led to the loss of over 1% of GDP (according to ONS, BoE, et al), you can kiss goodbye to the £350m a week, before it gets worse.  All I know is what is being reported, from various sources, and you tend to get an idea of the impact, by reading various sources, from all parts of the political spectrum.  Not one legitimate report I have seen, has said we come out of it favourably.

If you're not worried by something, how can someone else be less worried?  Surely if you're not worried, it's fairly binary, so that point is silly really.

Quotes:

.....Eliminating this protection by setting our own tariffs against major world exporters of these products at zero via Free Trade Agreements would give a big gain from the resulting free trade: calculations indicate that consumer prices would fall 8 per cent and GDP be 4 per cent larger...

...another gain which is particularly significant for poorer households whose wages are also depressed by this subsidised competition [unskilled migrants-kzb note]. These households in fact benefit on the calculations by around a 15 per cent rise in living standards from the trade and immigration changes...

....Under WTO customs procedures it is illegal for any country not to have a seamless ‘virtual state of the art’ customs clearance procedure under which ships are cleared via computer well before they reach port...

No Deal outcome: Cash benefits UK

Financial Settlement payment: £38 billion (total saved in present value)

EU Tariff Revenue: £13 billion p.a.: present discounted value (pdv) at 3%=£433 billion

Bring forward Brexit gains by two years: £180 billion (pdv)

Total pdv gained: £651 billion.

 

No Deal outcome: Cash losses EU

Financial Settlement payment: £38 billion (total lost in present value)

Tariff Revenue paid by EU to UK: £13 billion p.a.: present discounted value (pdv) at 3% = £433 billion loss

Bring forward EU terms of trade losses due to Brexit by two years: £ 36 billion (total lost in present value)

Total pdv loss: £507 billion.

http://www.politeia.co.uk/wp-content/Politeia Documents/2018/The Economics of Brexit - Minford/Patrick Minford The Economics of Brexit FINAL.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Succeed at what? Trade deals? Making more things to sell abroad?

If I told you you could sell to 10 people or 50 in one swoop - which would you choose?

They're not mutually exclusive, Jon. We'll still trade with the EU (import German cars) whilst we forge links with the vastly greater (growing) populations & companies in the USA, China, India & Mercosur.

[IMHAL]

1 minute ago, highYield said:

They're not mutually exclusive, Jon. We'll still trade with the EU (import German cars) whilst we forge links with the vastly greater (growing) populations & companies in the USA, China, India & Mercosur.

Honestly I think it all goes in one ear and out the other.......

[Guest]

Just now, IMHAL said:

Honestly I think it all goes in one ear and out the other.......

The problem with the (very few) remainers on this thread is that you are constantly trying to tell people things about the unknowable future.