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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.


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HOLA441
5 hours ago, IMHAL said:

Link please...

?

It was your link!

The one that contradicted your premise and the same one that reinforces the growing existential crisis in the EU and concludes with this paragraph:

Quote

...“We want a deal by June because the presidency that comes next is Austria, which has extremely conservative views on Dublin and migration and borders,” this diplomat said. “If we don’t get a deal by the summer we will lose credibility vis-à-vis public opinion and we cannot afford that because it would fuel support for populist and extremist parties across the country.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-migration-crisis-italy-spain-rebels-bulgaria-dublin-quotas-proposal/

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HOLA442
5 hours ago, IMHAL said:

Not just China... India insist on the same deal.... IP rights are excluded.....

In other words.... sanctioned theft of all the hard work and money we have poured into our R&D...... we would be giving away any trading advantages we have with the rest of the world ..... in a few short years China and India would be ripping off our offerings and sell them through out the world for a fraction of the cost that we can produce them. We would be giving away our family silver for the promise of a couple of percentile GDP increase in the very short term.... it is bonkers..... but sadly, widely repeated on here as a justification for leaving the customs union.... it plain daft and plain dangerous. 

?

Errm... the EU has already managed that.

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HOLA443
3 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

To be clear - I want to stay in the CU; to make brexit easier to realise.

The American health system is a shocker. Give me an example of a really efficient and effective health care system.

Personally, I have private health care.

CU bun fight is a red herring... Flexcit remains the best option IMHO.

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HOLA444
3 hours ago, IMHAL said:

1st point taken.

I agree with your last statement 100%. Edit.. i thought you said hate....not have.

I believe that whatever level of health care system you have.... demand will always outstrip supply for the very reason that the consequence of an efficient health care system is that it creates lots of old people ..... and old people place very high demands on any system.

Another justification for controlled immigration.

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HOLA445
3 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Absolutely. Which is why health tourism (all be it small) and non health issues (free IVF) get such attention.

healthcare isn’t even the most toxic issue. It’s housing, which is why im here. Foreign owners, companies, and BTL landlords have exploited the UK housing market. And governments of all colours have FAILed to protect one of the most important assets of our country.

Pretty sure places like China, Thailand, Singapore, HongKong you can only buy if you are a citizen of that country.

Yet they are free to buy ours?

Make me PM and I will ban foreign ownership tomorrow.

A neat link between housing and the EU:

http://www.euronews.com/2018/05/01/continued-strong-house-price-rises-in-europe

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HOLA446
2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It would be interesting to see some up to date figures for FDI. If this is holding up it probably means the Japanese and all will continue to invest in the UK and there will be no collapse (at least not to a timescale that will affect whether we leave or not).

If it is/or starts falling steeply this will be the key leading indicator heralding an exodus of foreign firms.

I'd expect it to be low until the direction of travel is known but then I'm sure you already know that. ?

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HOLA447
44 minutes ago, kzb said:

Just imagine then, that Parliament votes to reject the deal and to stay in the EU.

Parliament voted overwhelmingly to give us the referendum and to act on its result. They then vote NOT to act on the result.  

Deciding to actively do the opposite of  the democratic will of the people.

Without the backing of a second referendum reversing the first result, this is surely absolutely untenable.  Any last dregs of faith in democracy will be gone at that point.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that Brexit could be halted without a second referendum.

A second referendum on the final deal versus staying in would be a lot more democratic than continuing on a course dictated by a small (probably now negative) majority gained on a promise to deliver the undeliverable.

       

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HOLA448
Just now, Sheeple Splinter said:

?

It was your link!

The one that contradicted your premise and the same one that reinforces the growing existential crisis in the EU and concludes with this paragraph:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-migration-crisis-italy-spain-rebels-bulgaria-dublin-quotas-proposal/

I never posted a link to Politico? - I don't read that Leave Lovin Comic.... unless accidentally embedded as a quote from someone else. 

Nevertheless... I have read the article and it sounds like there is a discussion and negotiation taking place. There are two sides to this, the southern rim countries where typically first entry takes place and the countries where later allocation is to take place.

It is a real and significant problem. The EU front line countries are taking the brunt and a balanced solution has to be found between allowing asylum seekers free access and restricting their entry by in effect putting a resistor in place to them getting to the destination of their choice.If you remember, the debacle originated by the actions of the US and the UK and its WMD involvement in Iraq and the troubles that followed in the destabilising aftermath. The issues are out on the table, they are being negotiated and there won't be an agreement until and unless the two sides agree.

How else you you suggest they deal with an issue that WE started??? Perhaps they should demand compensation from us!!!!! Or better still send them all directly to us for us to process....

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HOLA449
1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Does that matter?

When the UK's post Brexit growth figures were propped up by the unexpected mini boom across the rest of the developed world, IIRC, all the Brexiters on here thought there was no linkage and that the UK's unexpectedly good figures were proof that project fear was nonsense. 

The inconvenient truth is that the forecasts were wrong. Don't forget the gold tweak. ?

Did you see IMF's Lagarde row back on the USA growth figures? It was just before she gave the warning on global economic health...

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HOLA4410
1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I don't think anyone is suggesting that Brexit could be halted without a second referendum.

A second referendum on the final deal versus staying in would be a lot more democratic than continuing on a course dictated by a small (probably now negative) majority gained on a promise to deliver the undeliverable.

       

That makes total sense.

People deserve to vote on..... what they will get ....vs .....what they currently have.      It makes sense.

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HOLA4411
51 minutes ago, thehowler said:

That's how I see it too.

And no, there is no certainty over whether Article 50 can be revoked, just comments from some of the players. The Scottish case is the most recent development - unless anyone knows otherwise?

You are just arguing for the sake of it.

There is no doubt that A50 must be invoked and progressed in accordance with the leaving states constitutional processes, therefore it cannot bind a new (i.e. the one we have now) parliament, so can be revoked. 

There is also no doubt a decision to revoke it would be accepted by the EU. They have already said it would, even going so far as to say we could still change our minds during transition.   

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HOLA4412
1 hour ago, thecrashingisles said:

It means that there were only two options available and given that it was clearly an important question, people were compelled to come down on one side or the other.  That does not mean they were enthused about it or deeply cared about seeing the result implemented.

Voter turnout proved that they did care about it. Compare it to AV Referendum which was combined with local elections - 42% turnout.

Better still, the Scottish Independence referendum was 84% turnout.

Edited by Sheeple Splinter
Scottish... added
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HOLA4413
3 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

The inconvenient truth is that the forecasts were wrong. Don't forget the gold tweak. ?

Did you see IMF's Lagarde row back on the USA growth figures? It was just before she gave the warning on global economic health...

As you know forecasts are always wrong, but also rarely do similar economies diverge from each other quite so quickly as the UK did from the main EU economies after the vote.

Achieving this nosedive at the same time as devaluing the currency by around 15% is probably unique.   

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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415
23 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I never posted a link to Politico? - I don't read that Leave Lovin Comic.... unless accidentally embedded as a quote from someone else. 

...

? What, someone like you?

Quote
23 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Faced with inconvenient truths , you resort to yet more hypocrisy whilst displaying your inability to deal with the points I raised.

You originally asked this question.

"Why would anyone want to stay in the EU when it has member states that are racist and xenophobic?"

23 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

The answer lies in the article above - because the EU is trying to do the right thing despite the xenophobic tendencies of some nations.... so thanks for posting that. Which is the point I made to your question originally.....if you had been listening.

 

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HOLA4416

 

20 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

As you know forecasts are always wrong, but also rarely do similar economies diverge from each other quite so quickly as the UK did from the main EU economies after the vote.

Achieving this nosedive at the same time as devaluing the currency by around 15% is probably unique.   

IIRC, you never answered this post.

On ‎10‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 00:22, Sheeple Splinter said:

Why would they use two different data sources?  (P2)

The OECD data shows UK's GDP growth rate, contracting from 2014 against G7 countries...

image.png.ac97b63ccce20860ef24cc5b684c9b1a.png

Real GDP forecastTotal, Annual growth rate (%), 2009 – 2019   OECD (2018), Real GDP forecast (indicator). doi: 10.1787/1f84150b-en (Accessed on 09 April 2018)

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-forecast.htm#indicator-chart

... and Japan is the lowest.

 

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HOLA4417
13 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

You are making that up. 

 

22 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

?

So no list then?

I have provided plenty of links to the EU's failure to achieve FTA's with the USA, China, India & Mercosur.

Which is, let's face it, odd, since it is often portrayed as a mighty superpower

The EU does not want to lose the UK from its bloc because it knows it will be:

a) Geopolitically & economically weakened

b) The UK will succeed.

WRT Mercosur:

http://en.mercopress.com/2018/04/30/last-round-of-eu-mercosur-useful-but-key-issues-remain-to-be-resolved

Sorry I thought you where one of those parading that we could do an FTA deal with China and India .... and continue to mock the EU for not stopping them stealing our ideas (its called theft BTW)... and for their apparent failure to do a FTA with China and India (where you seem to gloss over the fact that they won't do one because of the very IP rights issues you seem to have and issue with!!!....massive contradiction......odd)....and implying we could do better  :lol:... just how my friend?

Perhaps China and India will take pity on us when we are all out on our lonesome....... you are living in a dreamers paradise with a whole lot of logic failure thrown in.

 

 

Edited by IMHAL
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HOLA4418
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HOLA4419
1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

People deserve to vote on..... what they will get ....vs .....what they currently have.      It makes sense.

And how will they know what they will get? Is this a referendum that would take place after all the EU votes, the MEPs, Heads of State etc? What would the question on the vote paper be? I fear any second referendum would run all the same parlous risks for ambiguity and uncertainty of the first.

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HOLA4420
1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There is also no doubt a decision to revoke it would be accepted by the EU.

Is that right, you are in a position of authority to guarantee that are you? There is no certainty in any of the Brexit proceedings, Article 50 being revoked included. Why do you think the Scottish court are reviewing the appeal to take the question to the ECJ at this moment? I guess all they need to do is call you up or send you a post and you can set them right...

The promises of the MPs and Lords making amendments to the Brexit bills need to be scrutinized with the same light and vigour as their own scrutiny.

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HOLA4421
7 minutes ago, thehowler said:

And how will they know what they will get? Is this a referendum that would take place after all the EU votes, the MEPs, Heads of State etc? What would the question on the vote paper be? I fear any second referendum would run all the same parlous risks for ambiguity and uncertainty of the first.

Fair observations. However, there will be more clarity when all the non viable options have been jettisoned. It then becomes a case of presenting to the people what the remaining workable options are. We are nearing that point.

As regards how the referendum question is phrased, I'd suggest that, again, two options are presented stay and leave, this time leave will be much better defined, as previously it was all things to all men.

If remain lose this next time around I think it will put the issue to bed for another generation.

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HOLA4422
21 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

All you've done now, is get ccc to get literal, I think within 30 minutes, ccc will post figures of the last GE, in which he will purport 80% of the electorate voted for a brexit party.

I'm off out for dinner now, but that will tickle me.  He doesn't seem able to grasp nuance.

But then again, he is ignoring me not ignoring me, so will probably hold back if he can help himself ;)

 

I doubt it since it was more than 87.5%:

Two party politics

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40176349

LD surge in full swing...

image.png.3195ac3f87090e1964126c54ff2a7ded.png

https://britainelects.com/polling/trackers/

... locals tomorrow will be interesting.

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HOLA4423
16 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Is that right, you are in a position of authority to guarantee that are you? There is no certainty in any of the Brexit proceedings, Article 50 being revoked included. Why do you think the Scottish court are reviewing the appeal to take the question to the ECJ at this moment? I guess all they need to do is call you up or send you a post and you can set them right...

The promises of the MPs and Lords making amendments to the Brexit bills need to be scrutinized with the same light and vigour as their own scrutiny.

As I said you are now just arguing for its own sake.

The reality is clear, leave the nonsense of demanding guarantees and using court cases to generate publicity for the path they wish to pursue to the politicians.   

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HOLA4424
1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

 

Sorry I thought you where one of those parading that we could do an FTA deal with China and India .... and continue to mock the EU for not stopping them stealing our ideas (its called theft BTW)... and for their apparent failure to do a FTA with China and India (where you seem to gloss over the fact that they won't do one because of the very IP rights issues you seem to have and issue with!!!....massive contradiction......odd)....and implying we could do better  :lol:... just how my friend?

Perhaps China and India will take pity on us when we are all out on our lonesome....... you are living in a dreamers paradise with a whole lot of logic failure thrown in.

Can you explain why the EU has negotiated trade agreements with China that have adverse, possibly catastrophic, effects on the EU economy?

It may be helpful if you look into the stalled TTIP.

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HOLA4425

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