Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[ccc]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

So far people of every country, race and creed have had less and less children as they get richer, eventually ending up at below 2 children per couple . You can only get the world population going much above 10bn if you assume that for some reason this will not hold in future, which is an unevidenced stretch.

Re the current "almost vertical" bit of the growth, almost all of this is accounted for time lag between increased number of births and the death rate catching up. Which is why it will take another 50 years or so to stabilise.  

Moving back to the UK, not sure that there is much/any evidence that increasing density make countries poorer, but admit I haven't looked at it. I suspect the simple factor that will govern the UK's immigration level is how wealthy we are relative to other countries.    

 

 

So this logic is based on the Worlds population in general getting 'richer'. As its population continues to grow each year by about 80 million at todays rates up until another 3 billion folk are on the planet  ?

Why would there be some reason this will not hold in the future ? Err - well - do I have to spell it out for you ? Maybe there are going to be more poorer people on the planet than richer in the next however many decades ? You not considered that ?

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

So far people of every country, race and creed have had less and less children as they get richer, eventually ending up at below 2 children per couple . You can only get the world population going much above 10bn if you assume that for some reason this will not hold in future, which is an unevidenced stretch.

Re the current "almost vertical" bit of the growth, almost all of this is accounted for time lag between increased number of births and the death rate catching up. Which is why it will take another 50 years or so to stabilise.  

Moving back to the UK, not sure that there is much/any evidence that increasing density make countries poorer, but admit I haven't looked at it. I suspect the simple factor that will govern the UK's immigration level is how wealthy we are relative to other countries.    

 

 

The UK drags in immigrants from poorer European nations, they get richer, is there much real evidence that these people go home or do they stay because the UK is richer? Isn’t this shown by our increasing population?

Then there is the demographic disaster in their home nations, how is that solved? Because a load of productive people have upped stocks to move abroad? Where do these countries find immigrants from? Admitting even poorer countries into the EU to encourage migration to the new tier of middling nations or allow millions of asylum seekers from outside the EU into the EU to help the economy?

 

if so what has been achieved? There is more money about but at what cost to the society’s within those countries? This isn't a union of economic assistance, that’s blatant social engineering.

 

@pig you can sneer all you like at what you think is stupidity and madness. I hope you address your concerns to the EU Troika too and see where that gets you.

Edited October 25, 2017 by EmmaRoid

[pig]

3 hours ago, Unexpected said:

When the big bad wolf comes along you're going to want to build your own house of bricks and not a standard EU one made from straw.

There’s none left after all the straw men on this thread !

[pig]

5 minutes ago, EmmaRoid said:

The UK drags in immigrants from poorer European nations, they get richer, is there much real evidence that these people go home or do they stay because the UK is richer? Isn’t this shown by our increasing population?

Then there is the demographic disaster in their home nations, how is that solved? Because a load of productive people have upped stocks to move abroad? Where do these countries find immigrants from? Admitting even poorer countries into the EU to encourage migration to the new tier of middling nations or allow millions of asylum seekers from outside the EU into the EU to help the economy?

 

if so what has been achieved? There is more money about but at what cost to the society’s within those countries? This isn't a union of economic assistance, that’s blatant social engineering.

 

@pig you can sneer all you like at what you think is stupidity and madness. I hope you address your concerns to the EU Troika too and see where that gets you.

Actually, at least you’re trying to debate and reason your way through (for better or worse!) instead of trying to fob everybody off with ‘change’.

[Unexpected]

6 minutes ago, pig said:

There’s none left after all the straw men on this thread !

Haha you're probably right there.

[Unexpected]

6 minutes ago, pig said:

Actually, at least you’re trying to debate and reason your way through (for better or worse!) instead of trying to fob everybody off with ‘change’.

You may fear change but that is exactly what is going to happen. No fobbing. Just change. And yes, to exactly what, no one can say.

[pig]

1 hour ago, Unexpected said:

You may fear change but that is exactly what is going to happen. No fobbing. Just change. And yes, to exactly what, no one can say.

Sorry but there is zero chance that I will go along with that indiscriminate claptrap - you’re on the wrong thread, possibly the wrong forum for it for starters.

 

 

[Unexpected]

27 minutes ago, pig said:

Sorry but there is zero chance that I will go along with that indiscriminate claptrap - you’re on the wrong thread, possibly the wrong forum for it for starters.

 

 

It's your choice whether you're going to go along with what's going to happen. 

[rollover]

5 hours ago, ccc said:

Indeed. They are so out of touch they just have no clue.

Unbelievable.

 

Quote

 

Britons becoming GERMAN after UK's 'STUPIDITY' to vote Brexit

An increasing number of Britons are applying for German citizenship in protest at the "stupidity" of Brexit, new figures show. UK expat Nick Procyk, 58, said applying for a German passport was a "safe bet" due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit talks. Mr Procyk, who has lived in Germany for 30 years, added: "This is also a bit of protest against the stupidity of the British." Express

 

 

[jonb2]

6 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Go back further and there were no fecking boats so you were stuck here, immigration wasnt much of an issue tho.

Count - go back EVEN further and there was primordial slime. The same thing that our governing parties and their friends are made of - so maybe politics is the oldest profession in the world?

[jonb2]

6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Why do you think staying in the EU would lead to a population of 100m. There is no sign from either party that they want to reduce immigration beyond preventing those attracted by our benefit regime from coming, something they could have done long ago.

The most likely outcome is that some EU immigration will be replaced by increased immigration from ex commonwealth countries. Almost all of which will be from much poorer countries and who have a much stronger cultural and economic incentive to bring their immediate and extended families to the UK. When I was working at the HO I saw a report putting a number on this that was deemed much too sensitive to publish.

Given this factor, it is quite likely that leaving the EU will increase, rather than reduce the UK population, over the long term.   

 

Exactly

https://dailytimes.com.pk/128932/brexit-pave-way-increase-uk-immigration/

[Unexpected]

11 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Exactly

https://dailytimes.com.pk/128932/brexit-pave-way-increase-uk-immigration/

We will vote against immigration. 

[pig]

1 hour ago, Unexpected said:

It's your choice whether you're going to go along with what's going to happen. 

Well, that’s a weird response. 

Quite happy engaging in democratic debate over the future of our country  thanks. In theory ‘change’ is not meant to be happening though deception or coercion.

So if you have an idea of  what ‘change’ you would like that you’re not scared to debate then bearing in mind this is a forum I kind of expect it to be fecking spelt out. 

 

 

[long time lurking]

                                                                                                       Read it and weep

 

 

 

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Triggering countdown to Brexit ‘allowed EU to dictate rules of the game’

Sir Ivan Rogers said that invoking Article 50 without first establishing the sequencing of the talks had allowed the EU side to dictate the “rules of the game”. Theresa May’s decision to trigger the countdown to Brexit opened up Britain to being “screwed” in the negotiations with Brussels, the UK’s former ambassador to the EU has warned.

Sir Ivan Rogers nailing the fallacy of 'no deal' better than a 'bad deal' at @CommonsTreasury: the status quo isn't on offer. No deal = ????

Giving evidence to the Commons Treasury Committee, Sir Ivan said he advised waiting until ministers were sure the negotiating timetable was going to work for the benefit of the UK before they triggered Article 50 last March.

However he said that he had been “heavily opposed” by “various people in London”. BT

 

It was always the case, but it's too late. What's the plan now?

[rollover]

11 hours ago, ZeroSumGame said:

 

Brexit: Michael Bloomberg says leaving EU 'stupidest thing any country has ever done' - apart from electing Trump

Former New York mayor says he may not have built his £1bn HQ in London had he known the referendum result

Independent

 

Quote

 

What's the stupidest thing a nation has ever done? Guardian

The Confederacy’s cotton ban

At the outset, the south was widely predicted to win the US civil war. These, after all, were the heartlands of a still overwhelmingly agrarian economy. Perhaps unsurprisingly for a people who had pegged their historical mantle on the right to keep slaves, the south then chose to enact another colossal face-punch. Attempting to force diplomatic recognition from the European powers, they placed a ban on the export of their No 1 crop, cotton. Their already faltering economy shrunk like a cashmere jumper in a hot wash.

 

 

[Confusion of VIs]

David (thick as mince) Davis has been working hard today to justify his moniker.

The Government’s troubles began when Mr Davis bragged at a 9.15am Brexit Committee hearing that negotiations will drag on until the last minute and be “very exciting”.

You would have thought that even a couple pounds of mince could have seen the sh!tstorm his comments would cause. 

To summarise:

Davis didn't realise that the legal requirement to give MPs a meaningful vote on whether/how we leave sort of requires the vote to happen before we actually leave.

• Both he and May were forced to u turn within hours.
• The UK’s ex-ambassador to Brussels suggested May's approach could leave Britain “screwed” in negotiations.
• The HMRC could not say border systems will be ready in time for a “no deal” Brexit (reality is project is not even fully scoped and already it's Amber/Red, CS speak for screwed).
• Dominic Grieve said we may have to extend our membership of the EU beyond Mar 2019 to allow any deal to be ratified. 
• Even Conservative MPs are now demanding the meaningful vote must be guaranteed by Act of Parliament and include the option of not proceeding with Brexit.

To sum up just how big a hole he has dug for himself, May's spokesman was forced to say that Ms May still has “confidence” in his abilities. If she wasn't on such thin ice herself he would be gone by Christmas.

 

  

[HairyOb1]

10 hours ago, Unexpected said:

I don't disagree with what you're saying but I have a different approach to you and other remainers. I came very close to voting remain myself but decided to consider the situation of the UK population rather than my own particular situation. Like you, I have choices and am in a good position to escape if we were to stay in the EU and have a 100,000,000 of us. Not that I'm saying we would end up with that kind of number but it is/was a possibility at some point in the future.

I really wish there were a more scientific solution and am aware that we are shaking up the sh1t in the hope that it lands well. We need permission and motive to clean up all the sh1t, and yes I wish we had cleaned up what we could before we got to this stage but we didn't. No politicians wanted to drive the big pooper scooper because some of the kaka would end up in their trough. Now we are demanding that they be responsible for the mess they made and will accept no more excuses. If they don't then it's going to be pitchforks at some point.

 

Well then on all fairness, we're not that far apart, to be honest: I wish we'd sorted this out in 2015, that the EU understood there were serious areas on which member states had concerns, but they didn't, and the, then, vanity referendum was disastrous.  May's other vanity project failed as badly too.  However, what upsets me at the moment, is that having clear and unadulterated evidence that Brexit will be bad, the party in power, are still sailing for it full steam under the notion of a partial majority, one some would say has already disintegrated.

However, I don't think we're that far apart

9 hours ago, kzb said:

Like I said upstream, travel to Europe as a tourist was a good deal simpler before freedom of movement.

Full passport was not needed.  You are old enough to remember this.

Yes it was, unless you're talking about an international driving license, carnets and a 1 year passport.

Edited October 25, 2017 by HairyOb1

[Confusion of VIs]

6 hours ago, ccc said:

So this logic is based on the Worlds population in general getting 'richer'. As its population continues to grow each year by about 80 million at todays rates up until another 3 billion folk are on the planet  ?

Why would there be some reason this will not hold in the future ? Err - well - do I have to spell it out for you ? Maybe there are going to be more poorer people on the planet than richer in the next however many decades ? You not considered that ?

Do you have the data to help you spell it out to me, if so please post it. 

The reality is the point at which people start having less children is very low (and more strongly linked to child survival rates than wealth).   Again if you care to look you can find the stats about just how many are being pulled out of poverty which support thinking that the population will peak at around 10bn.  

A very simple primer on this is  

 

[HairyOb1]

2 hours ago, long time lurking said:

                                                                                                       Read it and weep

How?

No one else accepts this as factual.  No one, not even the swivel eyed loons.

[HairyOb1]

9 hours ago, kzb said:

Yeah I know.  It was Hairy who was going on about building walls because we're leaving. 

I am simply pointing out we went on holiday in Spain more easily than we do now, before Spain was in the EU.

Absolute ********. It is simply revisionism to say this.  I traveled Europe in the 80's and it was far harder than it is now, far harder.  I needed a carnet for my VW for some countries ffs. I travelled in 82 on a temp passport, and whilst it was easy, I was still stopped and checked for it.  I was also stopped in France, and the UK on the way back, which doesn't happen now.  Borders were occasionally shut.

You're definitely making shit up.

Edited October 25, 2017 by HairyOb1

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, rollover said:

 

It was always the case, but it's too late. What's the plan now?

It's bizarre to think that Rogers was replaced because the Thick as Mince crowd thought he held his views about moving forward slowly and carefully because he was pro EU.  I wonder how many are now wishing they had had the brains to follow his advice.  

[HairyOb1]

47 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

David (thick as mince) Davis has been working hard today to justify his moniker.

The Government’s troubles began when Mr Davis bragged at a 9.15am Brexit Committee hearing that negotiations will drag on until the last minute and be “very exciting”.

You would have thought that even a couple pounds of mince could have seen the sh!tstorm his comments would cause. 

To summarise:

Davis didn't realise that the legal requirement to give MPs a meaningful vote on whether/how we leave sort of requires the vote to happen before we actually leave.

• Both he and May were forced to u turn within hours.
• The UK’s ex-ambassador to Brussels suggested May's approach could leave Britain “screwed” in negotiations.
• The HMRC could not say border systems will be ready in time for a “no deal” Brexit (reality is project is not even fully scoped and already it's Amber/Red, CS speak for screwed).
• Dominic Grieve said we may have to extend our membership of the EU beyond Mar 2019 to allow any deal to be ratified. 
• Even Conservative MPs are now demanding the meaningful vote must be guaranteed by Act of Parliament and include the option of not proceeding with Brexit.

To sum up just how big a hole he has dug for himself, May's spokesman was forced to say that Ms May still has “confidence” in his abilities. If she wasn't on such thin ice herself he would be gone by Christmas.

I've been watching my insane wife skydive today, but got this on the TV when she was being briefed.  Quite shocked at his 'joviality' about this and the "Oh, yes, it might mean we're voting on leaving after we've agreed to leave" line said without any indication he understood the ramification of it.  How he could say this with a straight face, made me think he'd not joined the dots, and, sorry, but that's kind of worrying at this level, and stage.

[OnionTerror]

9 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I've been watching my insane wife skydive today, but got this on the TV when she was being briefed.  Quite shocked at his 'joviality' about this and the "Oh, yes, it might mean we're voting on leaving after we've agreed to leave" line said without any indication he understood the ramification of it.  How he could say this with a straight face, made me think he'd not joined the dots, and, sorry, but that's kind of worrying at this level, and stage.

The difference between David Davis & Ivan Rogers....

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86647

Everyone should watch his evidence...

http://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/b1f2aa76-ab15-40ce-9602-bb81badab525

Edited October 25, 2017 by Dave Beans

[HairyOb1]

Ouch...

The beginning....