Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[spyguy]

26 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

I'm fairly certain that there will be a range of bespoke agreements between the UK and the EU when it comes to Brexit. 

Im 99% sure itll be an end to eu nationals being able to claim benefits in other eu countries.

Poof 97% ee euers dissappear as they cannot afford. Euers are still free to move and work in other eu countries as long as they support themselves.

As far as getting it back from poland - i think think theres a handful literally of brits claiming benefits in poland and they get fckall.

[Futuroid]

6 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Im 99% sure itll be an end to eu nationals being able to claim benefits in other eu countries.

Poof 97% ee euers dissappear as they cannot afford. Euers are still free to move and work in other eu countries as long as they support themselves.

This ended when European judges ruled it was legal for the UK to deny other EU nationals benefits for 5 years after arrival (this was in force before the Brexit vote): 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/14/uk-can-refuse-benefits-to-unemployed-eu-migrants-judges-rule

IIRC this however does not apply to "in work" benefits. That's because most countries outside the UK are not stupid enough to operate "corporate subsidy" schemes like Working Tax Credits and just pay a living wage instead.

[spyguy]

2 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

This ended when European judges ruled it was legal for the UK to deny other EU nationals benefits for 5 years after arrival (this was in force before the Brexit vote): 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/14/uk-can-refuse-benefits-to-unemployed-eu-migrants-judges-rule

IIRC this however does not apply to "in work" benefits. That's because most countries outside the UK are not stupid enough to operate "corporate subsidy" schemes like Working Tax Credits and just pay a living wage instead.

I know.

Inwork benefits are benefits and can be denied to non uk nationals under ecj rules.

[Crumbless]

7 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

An interesting article regarding Visas...

http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/goodbye-cruel-world-visas-for-holidays.html

And when the EU crumbles and nations go back to their former currency we'll have to go to the bureau de change and get more than one currency for travelling through Europe, it'll be heart wrenching i just wish some people would think of the children.

[spyguy]

1 minute ago, Crumbless said:

And when the EU crumbles and nations go back to their former currency we'll have to go to the bureau de change and get more than one currency for travelling through Europe, it'll be heart wrenching i just wish some people would think of the children.

Wow their. Dollar andeuro are used as currency outside both regions.

[canbuywontbuy]

12 minutes ago, Crumbless said:

And when the EU crumbles and nations go back to their former currency we'll have to go to the bureau de change and get more than one currency for travelling through Europe, it'll be heart wrenching i just wish some people would think of the children.

I miss that part of European travel.  I remember the Austrian 5000 schilling note - was worth about £300 at the time (early 90s!).

[Futuroid]

42 minutes ago, spyguy said:

I know.

Inwork benefits are benefits and can be denied to non uk nationals under ecj rules.

So when do all the EU migrants leave?... you said:

"Poof 97% ee euers dissappear as they cannot afford."

[spyguy]

Just now, Futuroid said:

So when do all the EU migrants leave?... you said:

"Poof 97% ee euers dissappear as they cannot afford."

About 2 months after benefits are stopped.

Maybe in Autumn statement. Maybe nextyears budget.

Ukgov has to claw back a lot of spending. Euers benefit payouts is a good few billion of voter free low hanging fruit.

[Riedquat]

11 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Please elaborate on "strict visa controls"? Wouldn't they come through Ireland?

A few perhaps, probably not enough to be significant (and even if it is significant as long as it's less than now something has been achieved).

[crashmonitor]

1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

So when do all the EU migrants leave?... you said:

"Poof 97% ee euers dissappear as they cannot afford."

Well they wont will they,  most are doing useful jobs and any mass exodus would be disruptive anyway. The big issue sellers and welfare lifers will no doubt be given leave to stay too.

However, clearly welfare migration will be virtually brought to an end post Brexit as will our exposure to a continent that in the south is completely bankrupt and whose borders are impervious to decades of African migration. And every ''refugee'' taken will double the demand for those left on the African continent, so the do gooders are doubling the misery for those stuck in the camps.

 

Edited September 30, 2016 by crashmonitor

[Byron]

Re Ireland.

Last October, returning from Dublin, I was asked for identification at Holyhead.

[ccc]

Byron off with yer heed !!

Why didn't you just 'sneak in under the radar' ffs !! Apparently that's what a couple of million Poles and Bulgarians will be doing in a few years !!

[canbuywontbuy]

Again, how is it 190+ other countries can manage immigration, but magically the UK cannot (according to remainers)? The thinking goes like this : "the UK can't manage immigration, so we might as well keep freedom of movement" - it's a self-serving argument with no basis in reality.

Edited September 30, 2016 by canbuywontbuy

[ccc]

Indeed. I asked this same thing pages ago. To no reply.

If everyone who wants is just going to sneak in here anyway - and everyone else who is honest will go home when they are supposed to - why have any border checks at all !! There would be no need - would there.....

Rules clearly work. Being labelled 'illegal' clearly works. Visa expiry dates clearly work. Not for 100% of course - but the huge majority.

Of all the debates on this thread - and there have been a lot of good ones - this one really is absurd.

[canbuywontbuy]

16 minutes ago, ccc said:

Byron off with yer heed !!

Why didn't you just 'sneak in under the radar' ffs !! Apparently that's what a couple of million Poles and Bulgarians will be doing in a few years !!

Yeah, I'm wondering where to go next - maybe sneak into the US or maybe Canada....all the kids are doing it these days. 

[canbuywontbuy]

20 minutes ago, ccc said:

If everyone who wants is just going to sneak in here anyway - and everyone else who is honest will go home when they are supposed to - why have any border checks at all !! There would be no need - would there.....

CoVI seems to think that non-EU migration wouldn't be affected whether we had FoM (for the whole world!) or not.  So have at it - open the borders to one and all, as you say.  It seems that if people are going to tip-toe past border staff (they're so easily distracted I hear) anyway - we might as well just make it official and let them in - no need to sneak - come on in, and here's a pamphlet (written in your native language) on how to claim your benefits. 

Edited September 30, 2016 by canbuywontbuy

[Riedquat]

52 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Again, how is it 190+ other countries can manage immigration, but magically the UK cannot (according to remainers)? The thinking goes like this : "the UK can't manage immigration, so we might as well keep freedom of movement" - it's a self-serving argument with no basis in reality.

It's worse than that. The argument seems to go further - "Because some will still enter illegally then there's no point in having any controls at all." It's a fairly common strawman that Remain like to attack. Sensible people want immigration much more restricted, but hey, what do you know, you won't be 100% successful in achieving that. Therefore there's no point in even trying. I'm not quite sure what the logic is supposed to be there. If you don't get exactly what you want there's no point in even getting some of it?

 

46 minutes ago, ccc said:

Indeed. I asked this same thing pages ago. To no reply.

The question I'd like answering that I haven't seen a reply to (not that I've read every single post, so apologies if I've missed it) is "Why is the EU so insistent on freedom of movement with the UK? What does the EU gain from it that it's so insistent about it?"

[canbuywontbuy]

3 minutes ago, hotairmail said:

"But who will pick our strawberries - they'll rot in the fields"

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-easteurope-labour-idUKKCN1200SR

 

Growth in peril as east Europeans 'sweat blood' to find workers

At peak harvest time, Hungarian winemaker Sandor Font has enough work for 30 people at his vineyard south of Budapest - if only he could find enough grape-pickers.

On a recent sunny day he was expecting 20 to show up. In the end, he had to make do with about 10, mostly guest workers from Romania. "We are really sweating blood to find enough people. This is an enormous challenge," he says.

His struggles are a symptom of a wider problem for countries like Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, where years of heavy emigration to western Europe have created labour shortages that make it tough for businesses of all kinds to recruit.

To paraphrase a remainer in this thread: "those potatoes grapes won't pick themselves!".  Ah, the forgotten problem of mass immigration: mass emigration.  Dave Beans mentioned just a few posts ago that the UK should help Eastern European countries with their standard of living.  Well, a good start would be to give such countries a young, strong, native speaking workforce! I know just where they can be found....

 

 

 

[Errol]

1 hour ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Again, how is it 190+ other countries can manage immigration, but magically the UK cannot (according to remainers)? The thinking goes like this : "the UK can't manage immigration, so we might as well keep freedom of movement" - it's a self-serving argument with no basis in reality.

They need to talk to the Russians. They have a large border security force, and are very good at controlling immigration (they processed 500,000+ Ukrainians who chose to move to Russia after the coup). They also routinely apprehend groups of Ukronazi infiltration units trying to sneak into Russia to engage in acts of terrorism.

Edited September 30, 2016 by Errol

[canbuywontbuy]

45 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

The question I'd like answering that I haven't seen a reply to (not that I've read every single post, so apologies if I've missed it) is "Why is the EU so insistent on freedom of movement with the UK? What does the EU gain from it that it's so insistent about it?"

I honestly believe that they invented FoM to make people less nationalistic.  In their ideal vision of the EU, each member state becomes such a mix of nationalities that nationalism becomes a thing of the past.  We all become "European" rather than British or French or German.   That might sound like a laudable goal.  However, this was just to make people more appeasable to the EU's wider goals - political union, economic union, military union.

Result? They achieved the opposite.  Nationalism is on the rise in every country. 

It's been a spectacular own goal.  The EU is becoming less and less popular.  There will be no superstate. The people do not want it. 

 

[pig]

11 minutes ago, hotairmail said:

"But who will pick our strawberries - they'll rot in the fields"

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-easteurope-labour-idUKKCN1200SR

 

Growth in peril as east Europeans 'sweat blood' to find workers

At peak harvest time, Hungarian winemaker Sandor Font has enough work for 30 people at his vineyard south of Budapest - if only he could find enough grape-pickers.

On a recent sunny day he was expecting 20 to show up. In the end, he had to make do with about 10, mostly guest workers from Romania. "We are really sweating blood to find enough people. This is an enormous challenge," he says.

His struggles are a symptom of a wider problem for countries like Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, where years of heavy emigration to western Europe have created labour shortages that make it tough for businesses of all kinds to recruit.

Agriculture is a whole other complex debate rumbling on - either the state will subsidize or we'll just have to rethink how to use the land and import.

Drivers: its already been reported elsewhere that the no.1 occupation for men is soon to be no more.

Construction: I guess it will be a combination of more DIY on the small scale (but bear in mind most people will be renting) or getting rid of demand for skills through pre-fabrication other developments in technology. Germany have been leading the way at this so we could import unless we decide manufacturing ourselves is worthwhile.

If labour and materials inflate, would that mean the bricks&mortar/bubble ratio actually becomes more healthy and puts a firmer floor under prices ?

Service Industry: No idea how this one will pan out. Going by whats happened to housing presumably hotels restaurants etc will be more the preserve of the privileged / rich foreigners on holiday ?

[Riedquat]

27 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

I honestly believe that they invented FoM to make people less nationalistic.  In their ideal vision of the EU, each member state becomes such a mix of nationalities that nationalism becomes a thing of the past.  We all become "European" rather than British or French or German.   That might sound like a laudable goal.  However, this was just to make people more appeasable to the EU's wider goals - political union, economic union, military union.

Result? They achieved the opposite.  Nationalism is on the rise in every country. 

It's been a spectacular own goal.  The EU is becoming less and less popular.  There will be no superstate. The people do not want it. 

I'm sure you're right that it's idealism, probably based on a bit of (not particularly insightful) fear after WWII. I suppose it's the usual kneejerk reaction people are so fond of. Nationalist sentiments seem to have been involved therefore nationalism is a problem. Which it isn't necessarily, and it's a much more interesting world (even if it isn't as wealthy or efficient) if you've got lots of different nationalities that try to get on, rather than one big boring monolithic one. And the latter is a position that'll ultimately give rise to more resentment and, as you point out, more nationalism, probably of the less pleasant variety, as the less indoctrinated resent the all-encompasing overlord.

Still doesn't give a good reason why they're so keen on it now though, but I suppose misunderstanding and lack of thought are quite plausible answers. I was hoping that a better one might exist, one that actually increases my opinion of the EU rather than lower it further.

[Confusion of VIs]

6 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

I'm fairly certain that there will be a range of bespoke agreements between the UK and the EU when it comes to Brexit. 

There won't, that would break the EU passport Rules. We will have a single deal for any visa requirement for travel between the and  EU/EEA states. 

Edited September 30, 2016 by Confusion of VIs

[cool_hand]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37518089

UK spending grew strongly post-Brexit vote, ONS data shows

The UK services sector grew 0.4% in July, much more strongly than expected in the wake of June's vote to leave the European Union.

It shows consumers carried on spending as normal after June's Brexit vote.

Other figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show economic growth accelerated faster than thought in the run-up to the referendum.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.7% in the three months to the end of June, up from the 0.6% first estimated.

The second-quarter figures were well up from the 0.4% growth of the previous quarter.

ONS statistician Darren Morgan said: "Together this fresh data tends to support the view that there has been no sign of an immediate shock to the economy, although the full picture will continue to emerge."

The figures will help the Bank of England assess policy when it next meets in November.

It has already cut interest rates since the UK voted to leave the EU and has hinted there could be another one if needed.

why were interests rates cut? why is Carney still in his job?

 

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

CoVI seems to think that non-EU migration wouldn't be affected whether we had FoM (for the whole world!) or not.  So have at it - open the borders to one and all, as you say.  It seems that if people are going to tip-toe past border staff (they're so easily distracted I hear) anyway - we might as well just make it official and let them in - no need to sneak - come on in, and here's a pamphlet (written in your native language) on how to claim your benefits. 

Ok, I will try to simplify my argument enough for it to get through.

• We will reduce/end benefits tourism by stopping paying benefits to migrants until they have been self supporting for 5yrs (or whatever). We can do that in or out of the EU, so irrelevant to the Brexit argument.
• We will end FoM, this is required to show acceptance of the referendum result.
• We will put in place other arrangements to allow working migrants entry, some type of work permit system that will be geared to the needs of business to recruit staff.
• We will not put in place a visa system for EU citizens, as anything we do will be reciprocated and anything that would work by preventing initial entry would be unacceptable to the 20m (at a guess) Brits who holiday in the EU states. 
• the total number of migrants accepted for entry will be what is required to support the economy

If the economy continues to do well, the total number of migrants will be broadly similar to today, maybe a higher proportion from outside the EU but otherwise no real change. If the economy crashes then migration will decrease sharply but as a result of collateral damage caused by Brexit not changes to FoM.