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Property Lending Has Peaked But The Uk Is Not Heading For Another Crash, Savills Says

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They're probably right, property prices are in no way linked to the issuance of property DEBT.

All about supply and demand, innit. The immigrant cash buyers will pick up the slack from here on in. Oxford Economics and some Bank told me so.

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“However, the conditions of 2016 are very different to those of 2007: we’re not overbuilding, nor are we pricing secondary assets as prime, and investors and lenders alike have a heightened awareness of the risks in the market,” he said.

Riiiight...

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“However, the conditions of 2016 are very different to those of 2007: we’re not overbuilding, nor are we pricing secondary assets as prime, and investors and lenders alike have a heightened awareness of the risks in the market,” he said.

Riiiight...

BTL investor to banker..'Gimme the biggest loan you can, me old son. Property only ever goes up! It's me pension innit!'

Yes, very aware of the risks..... :rolleyes:

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They've kind of missed the point re: crashes. If there was any real clear predictive non subtle indicator that a crash was coming then it would be priced into the market and therefore wouldn't happen. BY DEFINITION models based in smooth functions aren't going to foresee the crash-causation. Durrr.

Edited by Si1

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However, the conditions of 2016 are very different to those of 2007: were not overbuilding, nor are we pricing secondary assets as prime, and investors and lenders alike have a heightened awareness of the risks in the market, he said.

Riiiight...

They ARE pricing dross as prime. Otherwise govt wouldn't be both subsidising and introducing stabilising legislation. Morons....

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They ARE pricing dross as prime. Otherwise govt wouldn't be both subsidising and introducing stabilising legislation. Morons....

A poxy flat....Prime

A crappy Semi...Prime

It's the prices that are prime...not the properties.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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They've kind of missed the point re: crashes. If there was any real clear predictive non subtle indicator that a crash was coming then it would be priced into the market and therefore wouldn't happen. BY DEFINITION models based in smooth functions aren't going to foresee the crash-causation. Durrr.

I'm a bit out of my depth judging the relative merits of different models but is this really true for housing? I'm sold that no ones out there accurately repeatedly predicting the timing and magnitude of crashes but it seems like housing markets bear little relation to the EMH and that there's lots of pretty reliable indicators that the market is overpriced.

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BTL investor to banker..'Gimme the biggest loan you can, me old son. Property only ever goes up! It's me pension innit!'

Yes, very aware of the risks..... :rolleyes:

bi9c7t.jpg

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"Property Lending Has Peaked But The Uk Is Not Heading For Another Crash..."

It's more than just denial. This is first signs that, deep down, they now know that the brown stuff is going to hit the wind rotating device but feel the need to tell us all will still be well - for they cannot bring themselves yet to accept the consequences of reality. It's as iff the act of reassuring us will prevent it happening.

But it does make me laugh when people spout statements like this.

"Yes the sky is full of horrendously black clouds, the temperature is dropping, the wind is picking up.....but don't worry it won't rain".

"Yes there's a 300 foot long gash below the waterline....but dont't worry the ship won' sink"

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At the risk of sound misogynistic, I think many men wouldn't buy at current prices but are forced into it by the ball and chain. Certainly something I see on here quite a lot.

Was thinking about this Savils quote this morning: doesn't this mean that some lenders will now be reducing down their valuations if they think prices aren't going up any more?

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^ Savills


“With continued strong leasing activity across all the main sectors, we’re going to see a gentle drift back to income rather than capital growth, which bodes well for the future of the market.”

So a collapse it is then - but "gentle" (of course)

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It's pretty simple, take the borrow-to-let DEBTjunkies ability to outbid FTBs out of the equation, where do prices go?

Clue: It isn't towards DEBTjunkie costs.

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“However, the conditions of 2016 are very different to those of 2007: we’re not overbuilding, nor are we pricing secondary assets as prime, and investors and lenders alike have a heightened awareness of the risks in the market,” he said.

Riiiight...

Stuff like this cracks me up. Was this guy in Ireland/Spain last time round. Last time the UK 'overbuilt' was maybe in the 70s, even then probably just up north.

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At the risk of sound misogynistic, I think many men wouldn't buy at current prices but are forced into it by the ball and chain. Certainly something I see on here quite a lot.

Was thinking about this Savils quote this morning: doesn't this mean that some lenders will now be reducing down their valuations if they think prices aren't going up any more?

That is mysogynistic, but you are not far wrong there...

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