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About Granit

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  1. The first part of this series has some good data: https://medium.com/@ian.mulheirn/part-1-is-there-really-a-housing-shortage-89fdc6bac4d2#.cxuzx7d2l The alarm around lack of supply was based on DCLG forecasts on household size and formation which didn't materialise:
  2. Great stuff everyone. The months of supply is a really interesting measure. Not the same method but here's the stock and sales data i've got for my area. I've done these by getting the address of each listing so it strips out the effects of a vendor using multiple agents, relists etc - a property is a single data point. *this is for houses only and for CT1, CT2, CT3, CT14 in Kent* Daily stock per day since June 15th. Red bars is total number of listings (including those listed as sold or under offer), green is only houses that are available. Daily net sales per day. Net sales = (number of listings that changed to under offer or sold stc) - (number of properties relisted) New listings per day: Asking price index - A pretty simple hedonic regression similar to the ONS etc use but the data is probably better. The big daily swings are the mix of houses on offer that i'm not capturing in the model.
  3. they could cosine that mortgage agreement
  4. There's only one comment with net negative votes at the end of that article: That's a new one - the IO BTL 'wealth creators' are helping humanity reach its collective potential.
  5. I've built an index for my area but i'm getting the hedonic data from portals and then matching up the repeat sales with pp-complete (using dates and sale prices that the portal publishes). It works well but you probably need an accurate floor area m^2 number from either the room measurements, OCRing the floor plan or the EPC to be able to do anything more accurate than the ONS, especially if you want to look at monthly moves at a borough level. Happy to share what i've got if you revisit the idea.
  6. More good stuff from DFJ, but I'm not sure Property Partner are being that conservative. Although they're projecting 0% rental growth they're also assuming a constant cost of credit (most properties currently on cheap high st fixes), and max 2 weeks void/yr. It's looking possible (likely?) that credit costs will increase while either rents decrease or voids increase and prices fall. If investors try to bail out en masse I think it's going to be a mess. Unless there's buyers on the secondary market investors are locked in for up to 5yrs which i'm sure will come as a shock to some.
  7. afaict yes, it matches what it says here: https://www.propertypartner.co/properties/UKCO11BA002?p=prop1&sc=marketplace-geared I don't know why the valuation is so different to '9 flats, Dutch quarter' though - they're in the same block
  8. ^ha, i must have been confused by all the s21s that have landed on my doormat over the years. http://imgur.com/a/OzCp6 This will be an interesting one to watch, trading below the initial purchase price. The flats in Whitechapel look like they're heading the same way too.
  9. An update full of seasonal cheer on this: i make it that asking prices for houses (no flats) with BTL-friendly phrases in the listing ("per calendar month", "calling all investors!", "ignore the 36 and their leader") are -9% since the summer vs -1% for the market as a whole in my area.
  10. There's been 8 sales in Dec so far in the area i follow (4 postcode districts, ~650 properties on RM), but there's been 9 properties relisted from sales that have fallen through for a net of -1 sales.
  11. I assume the Nationwide and Halifax get a floor area number from the survey and it would make sense for them to include it - floor area is a great predictor. I doubt the ONS index can account for it because they use VOA data for their hedonic regression. There are (were?) plans to use EPC data but I don't know what came of that. I agree that it's probably a pretty big effect over time, if the mix adjusting is done on number of bedrooms then they're going to miss it entirely.
  12. 115k for Q2 is miles out, someone has messed up the numbers. It's half the HMRC's number. Also: lol? PCL rentals are getting ******ed harder than anything I wonder what sector London Central Portfolio operate in
  13. lslps hpi is showing London -0.5% MoM with more evidence of big falls in the expensive bits http://www.lslps.co.uk/documents/house_price_index_aug16.pdf Which is the 5th month on the bounce of price falls: But they're showing pretty big sales volume numbers for England and Wales in August, Jan-Aug 2016 is virtually flat vs Jan-Aug 15 in their figures
  14. I think you're right about it being erratic, and this will prob get revised but the disconnect between new and old this year has been huge.
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