Jack's Creation Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 (edited) Osborne's fearorist calculations based around taking in another 3 million immigrants by 2029! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/18/brexit-would-cost-every-family-4300-a-year-treasury-forecasts/ Even the BBC aren't buying his Bullsh¡t :- "......The poster at George Osborne's event this morning was very clear - that there would be a £4,300-a-year cost to families by 2030 if Britain leaves the EU. It's not true. The government is confusing GDP per household with household income......" More at the link:- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36073201 Edited April 18, 2016 by Jack's Creation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 (edited) ^ The Treasury’s forecasts are underpinned by the presumption almost 3 million more people will come to the UK than leave in the next 14 years - roughly equivalent to three Birminghams So that extra 3 Birminghams would be in addition to the 5 Birminghams of net migration already since say year 2000 (about 5 million) - not to mention those before year 2000. If the official numbers are correct. 8 Birminghams and the UK doesn't even have that number of cities with that size of city zone to start with. Then that assumes that some future government won't relax Dave's already lax limits. Apparently even Dave's feeble negotiation deal only lasts up to 4 years. Edited April 18, 2016 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moonriver Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 (edited) And now it is lead story on itv lunchtime news! A big dose of scaremongering. The news starts off with that there is a "stark warning off the chancellor", that leaving the EU will lead to less money in our pockets, and higher taxes. (sounds like a threat maybe?) They said the treasury has even put numbers on it...., that by 2030 the economy could up to be 6% smaller and households an average of £4300 worse off. Leave campaigners say the claims are absurd and worthless given the treasury's past forecasting record. (they certainly have a point there!). edit...., to correct typo of "2020" to read "2030" Edited April 18, 2016 by moonriver Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 (edited) ^ bbc link Reality Check verdict: The precise figure is questionable and probably not particularly helpful. If you want to be influenced by economic modelling, the useful thing to take away is that the Treasury thinks leaving the EU would be bad for the economy, by an amount that would dwarf the savings from not having to contribute to the EU Budget. So it's not very useful - it's an opinion full of self serving vested interest. Whoever issued the figures didn't even check their validity - even the bbc spotted errors. Typical of the way the economy is run. Not surprising when it's jobs for the boys and they get the money first hot off the printing press. Why bother - it's easy peasy street. Seeing as his figures are so full of holes it's a bit rich him coming up with Chancellor says opponents ' economically illiterate' Edited April 18, 2016 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 And now it is lead story on itv lunchtime news! A big dose of scaremongering. The news starts off with that there is a "stark warning off the chancellor", that leaving the EU will lead to less money in our pockets, and higher taxes. (sounds like a threat maybe?) They said the treasury has even put numbers on it...., that by 2030 the economy could up to be 6% smaller and households an average of £4300 worse off. Leave campaigners say the claims are absurd and worthless given the treasury's past forecasting record. (they certainly have a point there!). edit...., to correct typo of "2020" to read "2030" So 3 million migrants by 2030, approximately represents an increase in 5% of current UK population. So Osborne's big insight is pointing out that the size of the economy scales broadly with the number of people in the economy...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 (edited) So if the economy would be 6% smaller that implies the population would be about 6% smaller - sounds good less congestion. Edited April 18, 2016 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 So if the economy would be 6% smaller that implies the population would be about 6% smaller - sounds good less congestion. Dunno, just jumped out. Numberwang through and through, I'd expect. Wake me up in July. zzzzzzzz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
workingpoor Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 (edited) It's the amount of people coming in not the money that's the key issue for alot of folk. I keep refering to the betting odds Stay 4/11 Leave 7/4 People have said that this has no bearing as bookies work on the "over round" etc But the data i have is 89% of bets taken so far have been on "Leave" https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result I don't think the bookies will call this wrong. Anyway on the morning of June 24th if i wake up and the result is 70-30'ish to "Stay" i will know that 2 out of 3 people i meet from that point on will have voted to "stay" despite virtually everyone i have spoken to saying they are in the "Leave" camp. Edited April 18, 2016 by workingpoor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Don't forget the Scottish referendum , tv and some street polls were showing people in the street saying the were for independence. The silent majority actually voted the other way. Just saying like..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Even the BBC aren't buying his Bullsh¡t :- "......The poster at George Osborne's event this morning was very clear - that there would be a £4,300-a-year cost to families by 2030 if Britain leaves the EU. It's not true. The government is confusing GDP per household with household income......" More at the link:- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36073201 He's cost the young/HPCers 20K this year alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 He, and his numbers, have become even more of a joke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 (edited) Don't forget the Scottish referendum , tv and some street polls were showing people in the street saying the were for independence. The silent majority actually voted the other way. Just saying like..... It was very close....without their fearorism the Yes would have won. I was ashamed to be British after their Indy Ref fearorism. it is clear to me at least that there is no democracy in the UK. Edited April 18, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 (edited) It's the amount of people coming in not the money that's the key issue for alot of folk. I keep refering to the betting odds Stay 4/11 Leave 7/4 People have said that this has no bearing as bookies work on the "over round" etc But the data i have is 89% of bets taken so far have been on "Leave" https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result I don't think the bookies will call this wrong. Anyway on the morning of June 24th if i wake up and the result is 70-30'ish to "Stay" i will know that 2 out of 3 people i meet from that point on will have voted to "stay" despite virtually everyone i have spoken to saying they are in the "Leave" camp. According to betfair the odds on staying are about 1.5 odds on and the majority of the money seems to be on staying although it's not a massively overwhelming majority of the money. It's averaged about 1.5 for some time now but there's even small amounts of money staked at the extremes of about 1.16 and 2.00. It seems to roughly reflect the polls but as the polls are pretty close then one would expect the odds to be a bit nearer evens. Generally speaking there's been no major moves in the odds with the figures generally fluctuating between about 1.6 and 1.35. It would be a surprise if volatility didn't pick up as the referendum approaches and if the polls' current trend continues maybe the polled majority will flip to the Leave side as time goes on. Of course who knows. Edited April 18, 2016 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GloomMonger Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 (edited) Surely Osborne would have to resign if we Brexit. Even though I believe we can prosper outside the EU, I'm not convinced enough of our government/civil service do. Without a strong determined Brexit government we are stuffed. Edited April 18, 2016 by GloomMonger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Surely Osborne would have to resign if we Brexit. Even though I believe we can prosper outside the EU, I'm not convinced enough of our government/civil service do. Without a strong determined Brexit government we are stuffed. There is no down side to the BrExit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onlyme2 Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 So if the economy would be 6% smaller that implies the population would be about 6% smaller - sounds good less congestion. It is why policticians, banks, central bank and corporate UK are all for squeezing as many bodies into the UK as possibly - this is the only type of growth they can rely on generating in lieu of decent governance, even if is more like a cancer and offers absolutely nothing in terms of increasing the living standards of the 10m's of existing inhabitants. The most entertaining thing about the pro EU propaganda is what happens after the vote. Just how miffed might the other part of the tory party be that their own party had used public funds to dish out some dodgy stats to game the referendum? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/15/george-osborne-says-brexit-will-drive-up-interest-rates ...ha...ha...he's on a safe bet...mortgage rates are likely to go up if we go or stay....not very bright... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 (edited) Don't forget the Scottish referendum , tv and some street polls were showing people in the street saying the were for independence. The silent majority actually voted the other way. Just saying like..... yeah....? EU Contributors: EURO BILLIONS 2013 1 - Germany - 16.32 2 - UK - 10.76 3 - France - 9.05 4 - Italy - 4.61 5 - Netherlands - 4.21 Recipients: EURO BILLIONS 1 - Poland - 9.07 2 - Greece 5.31 3 - Hungary 4.09 4 - Portugal 4.37 5 - Romania -4.09 Edited April 18, 2016 by South Lorne Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 According to betfair the odds on staying are about 1.5 odds on and the majority of the money seems to be on staying although it's not a massively overwhelming majority of the money. It's averaged about 1.5 for some time now but there's even small amounts of money staked at the extremes of about 1.16 and 2.00. It seems to roughly reflect the polls but as the polls are pretty close then one would expect the odds to be a bit nearer evens. Generally speaking there's been no major moves in the odds with the figures generally fluctuating between about 1.6 and 1.35. It would be a surprise if volatility didn't pick up as the referendum approaches and if the polls' current trend continues maybe the polled majority will flip to the Leave side as time goes on. Of course who knows. That's what happened in the scottish vote ,stay had a 20 point lead before the start of project fear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 It's the amount of people coming in not the money that's the key issue for alot of folk. I keep refering to the betting odds Stay 4/11 Leave 7/4 People have said that this has no bearing as bookies work on the "over round" etc But the data i have is 89% of bets taken so far have been on "Leave" https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result I don't think the bookies will call this wrong. Anyway on the morning of June 24th if i wake up and the result is 70-30'ish to "Stay" i will know that 2 out of 3 people i meet from that point on will have voted to "stay" despite virtually everyone i have spoken to saying they are in the "Leave" camp. Totally. I'd expect each household to lose A LOT more than a few thousand each but it's hardly the point is it ? Since the credit crunch all evil comes from Europe and immigrants allegedly. That is what it's come down to: social cohesion (a genuine issue I think), blame-shifting and woolly ideas about sovereignty. Not some blandly cautious 'numbers'. So what if Brexiters haven't made a proper case ? RW press have spent the last decade relentlessly inciting real fear and misinformation into the population with great success. Bremainers need to address the heart as well as the head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Totally. I'd expect each household to lose A LOT more than a few thousand each but it's hardly the point is it ? Since the credit crunch all evil comes from Europe and immigrants allegedly. That is what it's come down to: social cohesion (a genuine issue I think), blame-shifting and woolly ideas about sovereignty. Not some blandly cautious 'numbers'. So what if Brexiters haven't made a proper case ? RW press have spent the last decade relentlessly inciting real fear and misinformation into the population with great success. Bremainers need to address the heart as well as the head. For average joe i think that's spot on ...i said along time ago the choice will come from the heart not the head for most Noone believes this (or any for that matter) government`s fiscal predictions anymore ,the more they try to shove down the electorates throats the more the electorate will revert to their default option as you outlined I would also add how the EU/imigration have depressed average Joe`s wage`s this is a very real problem that most have already worked out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 yeah....? EU Contributors: EURO BILLIONS 2013 1 - Germany - 16.32 2 - UK - 10.76 3 - France - 9.05 4 - Italy - 4.61 5 - Netherlands - 4.21 Recipients: EURO BILLIONS 1 - Poland - 9.07 2 - Greece 5.31 3 - Hungary 4.09 4 - Portugal 4.37 5 - Romania -4.09 The socialist megastate. Zero democracy. Taxes misallocated. Watch your local hospitals and schools crumble away. Watch morons vote for more of this on 23rd June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Totally. I'd expect each household to lose A LOT more than a few thousand each but it's hardly the point is it ? Since the credit crunch all evil comes from Europe and immigrants allegedly. That is what it's come down to: social cohesion (a genuine issue I think), blame-shifting and woolly ideas about sovereignty. Not some blandly cautious 'numbers'. So what if Brexiters haven't made a proper case ? RW press have spent the last decade relentlessly inciting real fear and misinformation into the population with great success. Bremainers need to address the heart as well as the head. So wage stagnation has nothing to with a surplus of cheap labour? 25% of schools over-subscribed? Hospitals closing A+E more and more? 330,000 net migration per year (official figures) but our infrastructure can handle this magically while in a time of cuts? Surplus of cheap labour = more and more tax credits and child/housing benefits hoovered up by zero-contributing EEs. You make the argument either/or - it's not. Uncontrolled migration to the UK exarcebates underlying problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 And the levels of immigration we have currently are just obscene. And probably the official figures are off by a massive margin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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