Exit Poll Shows Tories On 316, 10 Short Of Majority

[thecrashingisles]

Quite a funny passage from this artilce (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/08/political-zombies-pick-over-election-bones-on-lawn-of-the-dead)

There were two low-flying Chinooks circling around, as well as the Skycopter and possibly even a Beeb one too. The hardware lavished on this stuff is hilarious. Maybe before the next election, Sky and the BBC could enter into Strategic Arms Limitation talks, and at least start the process of gizmo disarmament. They don’t have to destroy Kay Burley or anything, but could at least work towards putting the tracker worms beyond use.

[crashmonitor]

I think these are perceptive comments

The media are hyping up the result but actually outside of Scotland there has been very little change in the political landscape

The Tories have added 25 seats and won a small outright majority but most of those have come at the expense of the Liberal Democasts many of whose supporters probably quit rightly feel that Clegg betrayed them when he went into the coalition with Cameron.

Knock out the Lib Dem and the Scottish Nationalist seats and very few seats actually changed hands directly between Labour and Conservatives

I do, however, think Labour have a huge long term problem. For a start those who think that going back to the Balirite third way (that weird mix of capitalism, war, touchy feely PR and some nice focus groups or special sections for women, immigrants and the disabled) seriously think that is going to win back the Scottish Labour vote obviously have not been paying enough attention to what is going on north of the border. Moreover, I am not sure that many of the English voters who did not feel they could vote for Labour are going to have their mind changed by more Black sections in trade unions and reserved seats for women (quite how the latter can be justified in a democracy where women suffer no demographic voting disadvantage is beyond me). Ironically if Miliband had dusted down Michael Foots 1983 Labour party manifesto (European withdrawal and sticking it to the banks in a big way etc) I feel he might actually polled a bit better even though he was a pretty useless and uncharasmatic leader who could not engage with the public.My advice to Labour would be to stop dividing your own supporters on apartheid lines into racial, religious, cultural and gender groups and concentrate on the key economic issues that effect them all which would be wages, health and housing costs

That said I am not sure that the Tories will be entirely relishing the next Parliament. The collapse in the Lib Dem vote saved most of their vulnerable marginals this time and the UKIP vote did not damage them as badly as expected. That said the Euro issue has not gone away and Farage's mob polled nearly 4 million ballots for which our wonderful voting system richly rewarded them with a single miserable seat. How Cameron handles that promise of a European referendum in 2017 now is probably going to define his career. He is a PR man long on promises but the time is fast approaching when he will be expected to deliver, If he gets it wrong he wont be able to collapse the Liberal Democrat vote to save him. The Tories like Labour have that issue of the troublesome Scots that is simply not going to go way now no matter how much Cameron bleats about wanting to unite the nation.

Not at all the case in Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire, Tories somehow managed to prise out at least three very grim seats from Labour...Derby North, Erewash and High Peak. Seriously bleak northern towns like Glossop, New Mills, Ilkeston (including the Cotmanhay Bronx) and Long Eaton. As I say the poor working man (white van man) probably just f**king fed up with hearing how Milibot was planning to fleece them in the name of the public sector and benefit lifers. Additionally they held onto their marginals.

Labour must stop being tribal and help everybody including the drones that actually work.

Liberals have had zero presence in the East Midlands.

Edited May 9, 2015 by crashmonitor

[stormymonday_2011]

From the earlier Mail link

Well of course. It's stating the obvious to say it needs "broad-based appeal "- but the electorate don't want all the other garbage that came with it.

Likely even Miliband thought he had a broad enough base to appeal.

Just offering another Conservative party again isn't enough.

As if Tony Blair would have polled in Scotland any better than Miliband in last Thursdays election

Some one has been taking too many mind altering drugs if they believe that Scots are suddenly going to start voting Labour because it has become more 'centrist'.

Edited May 9, 2015 by stormymonday_2011

[Guest Jemmy Button]

I think these are perceptive comments

The media are hyping up the result but actually outside of Scotland there has been very little change in the political landscape

The Tories have added 25 seats and won a small outright majority but most of those have come at the expense of the Liberal Democasts many of whose supporters probably quit rightly feel that Clegg betrayed them when he went into the coalition with Cameron.

Knock out the Lib Dem and the Scottish Nationalist seats and very few seats actually changed hands directly between Labour and Conservatives

I do, however, think Labour have a huge long term problem. For a start those who think that going back to the Balirite third way (that weird mix of capitalism, war, touchy feely PR and some nice focus groups or special sections for women, immigrants and the disabled) seriously think that is going to win back the Scottish Labour vote obviously have not been paying enough attention to what is going on north of the border. Moreover, I am not sure that many of the English voters who did not feel they could vote for Labour are going to have their mind changed by more Black sections in trade unions and reserved seats for women (quite how the latter can be justified in a democracy where women suffer no demographic voting disadvantage is beyond me). Ironically if Miliband had dusted down Michael Foots 1983 Labour party manifesto (European withdrawal and sticking it to the banks in a big way etc) I feel he might actually polled a bit better even though he was a pretty useless and uncharasmatic leader who could not engage with the public.My advice to Labour would be to stop dividing your own supporters on apartheid lines into racial, religious, cultural and gender groups and concentrate on the key economic issues that effect them all which would be wages, health and housing costs

That said I am not sure that the Tories will be entirely relishing the next Parliament. The collapse in the Lib Dem vote saved most of their vulnerable marginals this time and the UKIP vote did not damage them as badly as expected. That said the Euro issue has not gone away and Farage's mob polled nearly 4 million ballots for which our wonderful voting system richly rewarded them with a single miserable seat. How Cameron handles that promise of a European referendum in 2017 now is probably going to define his career. He is a PR man long on promises but the time is fast approaching when he will be expected to deliver, If he gets it wrong he wont be able to collapse the Liberal Democrat vote to save him. The Tories like Labour have that issue of the troublesome Scots that is simply not going to go way now no matter how much Cameron bleats about wanting to unite the nation.

An excellent post. Personally, I think The Labour Party is now dead. It is too far gone now. Blair/Straw/Campbell/Mandelson killed off it's natural supporters with an illegal War and Mass immigration policies.

[PopGun]

Is there anyone out there who would make a plausible PM.

Not yet. Just not being PM for the next 24 months should be enough though. Which is why I expect Cameron to step down sooner than later

[Killer Bunny]

How many more times am i going to have to endure reading the idiotic 'Tories are for high HPs' as in Labour LibDems UKIP SNP Greens aren't? FFS!

[stormymonday_2011]

Not at all the case in Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire, Tories somehow managed to prise out at least three very grim seats from Labour...Derby North, Erewash and High Peak. Seriously bleak northern towns like Glossop, New Mills, Ilkeston (including the Cotmanhay Bronx) and Long Eaton. As I say the poor working man probably just f**king fed up with hearing how Milibot was planning to fleece them in the name of the public sector and benefit lifers. Additionally they held onto their marginals.

Labour must stop being tribal and help everybody including the drones that actually work.

Liberals have had zero presence in the East Midlands.

Maybe but Labour won Wirral West, Ilford North and Ealing from the Tories. They polled better in some areas than the other but to read a national picture into 3 constituencies anywhere is to see too much and probably wrongly. Labour actually put their vote up 3% in Derby North. Unfortunately for them, the Tories got 5% more. Looking at the result the loser were the Liberal Democrats whose vote was down 19.5%. In fact more Lib Dems (pro Europe) seem to have switched direct to UKIP (anti Europe) - up 11% - than went to either Tories or Labour (though of course equally some could have gone Tory and some Tories could have gone UKIP)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000662

The same seems to have happened in Erewash and High Peak

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000695

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000695

In fact the one thing that Derby North and Iford North have in common is that it was the way the Lib Dem swing voters went that decided the results of these constituencies

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000695

More of these Lib Dems switched Tory than Labour where it counted most in a few marginals

Edited May 9, 2015 by stormymonday_2011

[R K]

An excellent post. Personally, I think The Labour Party is now dead. It is too far gone now. Blair/Straw/Campbell/Mandelson killed off it's natural supporters with an illegal War and Mass immigration policies.

Vote was closer than it appears. Tory majority much less than with Libs.

Labour need to forget about Scotland and focus on a relatively small swing back in England which means appealing to the centre. English dont give a monkeys about real wage cuts, social welfare etc they just want rising house prices, decent health service and "aspiration".

They can forget no-hopers like Cooper, Ummuna or Burnham. They wont appeal to middle england. They need to go with someone like Dan Jarvis. Looks like a Tory/ex-para v fat blond Eton bloke on a zip wire.

[stormymonday_2011]

How many more times am i going to have to endure reading the idiotic 'Tories are for high HPs' as in Labour LibDems UKIP SNP Greens aren't? FFS!

The only PM to collapse House Prices in my time is John Major

Believe me all politicians be they red, blue, green or yellow have learnt the lesson on what happened to him at the polls.

All the electoral evidence is that the British public love HPI even though all the recent economic evidence is that this passion is simply bankrupting them

Edited May 9, 2015 by stormymonday_2011

[@contradevian]

Vote was closer than it appears. Tory majority much less than with Libs.

Labour need to forget about Scotland and focus on a relatively small swing back in England which means appealing to the centre. English dont give a monkeys about real wage cuts, social welfare etc they just want rising house prices, decent health service and "aspiration".

They can forget no-hopers like Cooper, Ummuna or Burnham. They wont appeal to middle england. They need to go with someone like Dan Jarvis. Looks like a Tory/ex-para v fat blond Eton bloke on a zip wire.

Couldn't agree more. My choice would be Alan Johnson as he appears 'normal' but might be a bit too old Labour for 'middle england' and their faux capitalism. Not unsurprisingly Johnson isn't interested (who can blame him?).

My fear is they will pick Ummuna or worse Tristram Hunt.

Edited May 9, 2015 by RentierParadisio

[Dorkins]

The only PM to collapse House Prices in my time is John Major

Believe me all politicians be they red, blue, green or yellow have learnt the lesson on what happened to him at the polls.

All the electoral evidence is that the British public love HPI even though all the recent economic evidence is that this passion is simply bankrupting them

Major won the 1992 election after 3 years of falling house prices. The facts don't fit your argument.

[@contradevian]

Major won the 1992 election after 3 years of falling house prices. The facts don't fit your argument.

1992 is one of those funny elections, where we were all told the Tories were going to loose, but we wake up the next morning and a Tory PM is back in Number 10.

In 1992, Government was there for the taking (like this one) but Labour screwed up the job.

Major won that because Labour under Kinnock scared the electorate at the last minute. Ed's 'monolith' might have been Kinnocks Sheffield Rally. 'We're Alright!'

Edited May 9, 2015 by RentierParadisio

[stormymonday_2011]

Vote was closer than it appears. Tory majority much less than with Libs.

Old Parliament Tories 306 and Liberals 57 = Coaltion Total 363 + Ulster Unionists, DUP etc if needed. So a majority of about 40 taking out Sinn Fein

New Parliament Tories 331 + Ulster Unionists, DUP + UKIP etc. So a potential majority of about 20 taking out Sinn Fein

Camerons actual voting majority as a PM introducing legislation has halved and the Ulster politcians and UKIP are likely to be a lot less reliable than Cleggs MPs operating under a party whip

Worse Cameron will now have to worry about the 5-10 loose cannon MPS that usually exist on his own party's anti European right now he does not have 57 willing and able Lib Dems to blot them out in the voting Lobby of the House Of Commons

I suspect he would like to have the few remaining Lib Dems voting with him but I suspect they are not going to make that mistake again.

Edited May 9, 2015 by stormymonday_2011

[Dorkins]

Worse Cameron will now have to worry about the 5-10 loose cannon MPS that usually exist on his own party's anti European right now he does not have 57 willing and able Lib Dems to blot themout in the voting Lobby of the House Of Commons

Very true. I expect Peter Bone is delighted to be Cameron's new boss.

[stormymonday_2011]

Major won the 1992 election after 3 years of falling house prices. The facts don't fit your argument.

True but I think general elections always operate in some respect in recent historical hind sight and Major was not initially held responsible for the slump in House Prices since he was only put in the job in 1990 after the Tory MPs knifed Thatcher to save their own electoral skins (it worked to in the short term). I think he got the benefit of the doubt in 1992 and the Tories only reaped the impact after Black Wednesday and the final capitualtion of the Housing Market during HPC 1 in the mid 1990s.

Edited May 9, 2015 by stormymonday_2011

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

Couldn't agree more. My choice would be Alan Johnson as he appears 'normal' but might be a bit too old Labour for 'middle england' and their faux capitalism. Not unsurprisingly Johnson isn't interested (who can blame him?).

My fear is they will pick Ummuna or worse Tristram Hunt.

Indeed. The issue is Labour is now the party of Primrose Hill metrosexuals. Jarvis would look serious and as ex-military would be able to do the whole iron bar wrapped in cotton wool routine. He'd also be able to argue that he's actually had a real job making life or death decisions in high stress situations.

[Errol]

Jarvis could be Labour's Putin.

[goldbug9999]

True but I think general elections always operate in some respect in recent historical hind sight and Major was not initially held responsible for the slump in House Prices since he was only put in the job in 1990 after the Tory MPs knifed Thatcher to save their own electoral skins (it worked to in the short term). I think he got the benefit of the doubt in 1992 and the Tories only reaped the impact after Black Wednesday and the final capitualtion of the Housing Market during HPC 1 in the mid 1990s.

Tories lost 1997 election because of rampant corruption, cash for questions etc. I dont remember house prices ever being discussed as an issue in the lead up to it.

[Guest_northshore_*]

Worse Cameron will now have to worry about the 5-10 loose cannon MPS that usually exist on his own party's anti European right now he does not have 57 willing and able Lib Dems to blot them out in the voting Lobby of the House Of Commons.

There are no loose cannon MPs on credit and homeownerism. And there's no way a referendum will result in an EU exit so I doubt he's very worried at all.

[BorrowToLeech]

I respect your view but I take an almost completely opposite view.

Basically Labour let the country down by favouring its tribe...public sector workers and welfare lifers. Spend, spend spend on its tribe and damn the consequence for the grandkids when there is no money left. And allowing Sturgeon to dictate spending would have made matters worse. She considers doubling Natiional debt austerity for God's sake.

No, this was the big lie of the election.

Labour didn't particularly spend big until the banks went bust.

They didn't let the country down by favouring their tribe, they let the country down by favouring the Tory tribe - bankers and landlords.

It was the private debt bubble that led to the crisis.

Labour's defeat was due to the conservatives ability to rewrite the history of the credit crunch, and because Ed Miliband doesn't look right.

[spyguy]

No, this was the big lie of the election.

Labour didn't particularly spend big until the banks went bust.

They didn't let the country down by favouring their tribe, they let the country down by favouring the Tory tribe - bankers and landlords.

It was the private debt bubble that led to the crisis.

Labour's defeat was due to the conservatives ability to rewrite the history of the credit crunch, and because Ed Miliband doesn't look right.

Nope. Wrong.

Labour took government spending up + over 40$, were running 3% budget deficit whilst having a massive credit and public sector binge.

The banks all went wrong, recession kicked in and the UK had a budget deficit of 11% - thats fcking huge!!!

It was a massive private sector debt binge and a massive public sector spend.

[BorrowToLeech]

No, this was the big lie of the election.

Labour didn't particularly spend big until the banks went bust.

They didn't let the country down by favouring their tribe, they let the country down by favouring the Tory tribe - bankers and landlords.

It was the private debt bubble that led to the crisis.

Labour's defeat was due to the conservatives ability to rewrite the history of the credit crunch, and because Ed Miliband doesn't look right.

Oh, and immigration.

Labour need to drop all the identity politics garbage, which is completely at odds with the views of most people.

[BorrowToLeech]

Nope. Wrong.

Labour took government spending up + over 40$, were running 3% budget deficit whilst having a massive credit and public sector binge.

The banks all went wrong, recession kicked in and the UK had a budget deficit of 11% - thats fcking huge!!!

It was a massive private sector debt binge and a massive public sector spend.

[slawek]

No, this was the big lie of the election.

Labour didn't particularly spend big until the banks went bust.

They didn't let the country down by favouring their tribe, they let the country down by favouring the Tory tribe - bankers and landlords.

It was the private debt bubble that led to the crisis.

Labour's defeat was due to the conservatives ability to rewrite the history of the credit crunch, and because Ed Miliband doesn't look right.

Cons won the election thanks to 3% of the unsecured middle ground voters (probably ex-Lab voters) who believed Cons fear campaign, you can't trust Lab on economy, it will be chaos after the election, SNP will control Lab government.

They thought that better known evil than that, Cons weren't so bad, nothing nasty happened.

[South Lorne]

Cons won the election thanks to 3% of the unsecured middle ground voters (probably ex-Lab voters) who believed Cons fear campaign, you can't trust Lab on economy, it will be chaos after the election, SNP will control Lab government.

They thought that better known evil than that, Cons weren't so bad, nothing nasty happened.

..hah..hah...Milliband and the SNP would have been a nightmare..which planet are you on...? ...both wanted to live beyond their means and called living within means... austerity....well we know only the feckless do that....very leftie point of view ...overall ....a massive swing to the right if you include the UKIP percentage share of the vote....