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Goat

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Everything posted by Goat

  1. In some respects May has done the Labour party a favour by calling this election, whether they'll make use of it or carry on with Corbyn or another loony left leader is another matter. Pathetic stuff whining about the "elites" and "tax cheats and greedy bankers" that all really comes down to shaking the magic money tree some more.
  2. Indeed, the SNP's plan seems to be to generate as much grief and aggro as possible in the hope that eventually everyone will be happy to see them go, god knows what would've happened if Cameron hadn't won a majority last year. Paradoxically I think you can argue that the SNP have brought us where we are today. The fear of Sturgeon holding the balance of power in a hung parliament undoubtedly scared a lot of voters away from Labour, thus keeping Cameron in power, thus ensuring that the referendum could go ahead.
  3. Was Eight the cause of the moderators sense of humor failure or did he just get caught in the crossfire?
  4. Just moved out of a property and was rather shocked to be handed a cleaning bill for £400 for a 1 bed house, to put this in context the monthly rent was £600. The property was cleaned to the best of my ability (the better part of a whole day), possibly the kitchen needed a bit more work but I really struggle to see how this amount of time can be justified. What do people normally expect to pay?
  5. Don't think so IMO, the political fallout would be so immense I can't see how any party could even think about it. Think about the flak they're taking over ~ £1,500 of tax credits - imagine what would happen if you were taking £10,000+ off "hard working families".
  6. Any chance you could precie that? It is rather long. From a brief skim that appears to be levied on residential properties only based on house prices, which is great if you want to hit pensioners but will do nothing to the BTLers or large landowners. Being cynical I'd say that amounts to nothing more than a plan to tax the South East.
  7. Can anyone tell me what a LVT would look like in practice? What would it raise, how would it be calculated, what taxes would it replace, who would win, who would lose?
  8. Not quite true, he managed to get 49.6% of the members and 51.4% when the affiliated supporters are included; no doubt even if the latter were excluded he would've picked up enough 2nd preferences to get over the line. What's important about the registered supporters is they have turned a narrow victory into a thumping one.
  9. Although it does show what's necessary for such an arrangement to work, i.e. two closely intergrated economies with a common language, real freedom of movement between the two countries, one dominant partner and the ultimate ability of the junior partner to break the link if necessary. None of which are present in the EZ.
  10. Only if his aim is Grexit. I can't see a 3rd bailout happening, the IMF have said they won't be involved without a w/off, the EZ say that this is impossible due to the treaties in place, stalemate.
  11. Yep, the big problem is that he wasn't prepared to leave the Euro, the EZ saw this, called his bluff, at which point he was f***ed. I also think he fundamentally misjudged his bargaining position, he thought that the EZ would be desparate to avoid a Grexit, they weren't (although Grexit may be much more catestrophic for them than they realise).
  12. A devaluation would sort out that trade deficit (although it cuts both ways by making imports more expensive) and give them a chance to grow their economy, the losers are those with substantial Euro denominated holdings within Greece. Personally I think staying in the Euro is about nothing more than national pride.
  13. But is that true? I don't understand why people think leaving the Euro would be a calamity, these countries have all had their own currencies in the past so why would it be a disaster to return to that situation? The Greeks are already running or close to a primary surplus, what's killing them is the interest on the debt. Outside of the Euro they could repudiate their EZ debts and survive with help from the IMF, they'd probably see a 30% devaluation and an associated spike in inflation but this needn't be the end of the world. To me the supposed costs of Euro exit sound like propaganda from pro-EU enthusiasts.
  14. Another article from AEP: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11739985/IMF-stuns-Europe-with-call-for-massive-Greek-debt-relief.html Essentially IMF are saying they want no part of a further bail out, EZ are insisting that IMF is involved in any rescue package. I can't see the point in the Greeks bothering to enact the preconditions unless they want to pin the blame for Grexit on the EZ, there doesn't appear to be much likelyhood of the EZ agreeing a new bailout so anything the Greeks do is for nought.
  15. Well, that £25bn for the bank recapitalisation will likely be in their pockets as cash or transferred abroad within about 10 days of the banks re-opening.
  16. Some suggestions that ECB won't restart ELA until September: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11738150/Greece-news-live-Germans-back-Osbornes-fight-against-Juncker-plan-to-bail-out-Greece-as-IMF-calls-for-more-debt-relief.html Spanish journalist Jorge Valero reports that the central bank may hold off for a while yet. He quotes one source as saying Mario Draghi will wait until a review of the terms of the planned third bail-out are complete. Last night, Pierre Moscovici said negotiations over agreeing a new ESM loan could take at least four weeks. Any release of cash may not come until into September. Could the Greeks survive 6-8 weeks more without a banking system?
  17. Actually it's probably simpler than that. The Greeks could continue to use Euro notes as cash until Drachma notes become available, buying them as a forex transaction at the applicable market rate much as you or I would.
  18. But who gets the income in the event of Grexit? Does it go to Greece or to the EZ to repay some of the existing loans? Possible, but a potential minefield esp. depending upon what law the trust is written in.
  19. Two ways of looking at this: 1. it is designed to be so insulting that there's no way that the Greeks could ever agree; 2. EZ are asing Greeks to hand their last €50bn to EZ in return for a possible deal, in the event of no deal would the €50bn remain in EZ hands? Are the EZ trying to extract the last few drops of blood from the corpse before cutting the Greeks loose? Either way Grexit looks assured to me.
  20. Last chance meeting over with no agreement, can seemingly kicked into middle of next week. Greece appears to be required to enact "tough" new legislation on labour market, taxes, pensions and privatisation by Wednesday as a precondition for further talks, presumably scheduled for Thursday. Banks presumably shut for the whole of next week, I imagine that shortages of food, medicine and other essentials must be getting pretty acute by now, how are things going to be by this time next week? Even if banks can re-open a week on Monday how long would they last? Who is going to keep money in them after recent events? The increased ECB collateral haircut means that they must be getting close to their ELA liquidity limit, the inevitable bank runs will surely push them over the edge and close them for good. Are we past the point of no return? Will EZ really be willing to spend tens of billions recapitalising the Greek banking system when there's every chance of that going up in smoke as well?
  21. Seems there's now a basic trust issue, the creditors don't believe the Greeks plan to implement the measures they sign up to. Germany, Holland, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia all seemingly pushing for Grexit, Finns esp. likely to block any deal.
  22. A point I made earlier, once you reach £11,000 earnings the combined tax/NI/TC withdrawal rates hits 79%, so there's a very strong incentive not to earn more than that. Also I'm worried about the interaction between HB and the above, I thinks some people could be facing marginal rates of 130%+, am I missing something.
  23. Yep, quite big changes are these. Max CTC is £7,300 for 1 and £10,085 for 2. The cut in the withdrawal threshold and the increase in the taper rate will eliminate TC entirely for 1 child at just over £19,000 and for 2 at just under £25,000. My only problem is that the combined TC taper and tax/nic rate is 79%, so there's a strong incentive to keep your income below the personal allowance. Also I'm not sure how this is going to interact with HB. AIUI HB is withdrawn for incomes above the "applicable amount", which would be ~ £13,000 for a couple with 2 kids; £10,085 + £3,850 = £13,935, so the moment the taper kicks in you start losing what? 65% HB + 48% TCT + 20% council tax benefit? That's a marginal rate of 133%, surely that can't be right!
  24. Asset rich pensioners with fixed Euro income happy with the status quo, pennyless young not so happy. What's not to understand.
  25. Rough guess, based on previous printing rates: 300 years.
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