Frizzers Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Beware comparing us to Japan and making the assumption that the bear market that happened there will happen here. There are many intrinsic differences to the two markets. Planning laws are different, demographics are different, Tokyo is not as cosmopolitan as London - more on this thread from a while back. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/198709-planning-laws-in-japan/ In other news, we have a piece in the Observer about Nine Elms. Some ranting about the injustice of it, but no mention of the almighty crash that's coming there. http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/14/battersea-nine-elms-property-development-housing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ray Valentine Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Beware comparing us to Japan and making the assumption that the bear market that happened there will happen here. There are many intrinsic differences to the two markets. Planning laws are different, demographics are different, Tokyo is not as cosmopolitan as London - more on this thread from a while back. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/198709-planning-laws-in-japan/ In other news, we have a piece in the Observer about Nine Elms. Some ranting about the injustice of it, but no mention of the almighty crash that's coming there. http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/14/battersea-nine-elms-property-development-housing Do you really expect a national newspaper to report that a crash is on its way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 Beware comparing us to Japan and making the assumption that the bear market that happened there will happen here. There are many intrinsic differences to the two markets. Planning laws are different, demographics are different, Tokyo is not as cosmopolitan as London - more on this thread from a while back. I just can not see any significant difference of the bubble pops between Japan, Dubai, Dublin, Spain, etc ... the tops are often symetrical I do not believe that London is special or different in any way (especially after 2013 crazy rises) ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnySW18 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The methodology of the LSL data - a simple mean price average of sales in each borough in each month - means it is a very poor indices to try and extrapolate trends from. In the previous monthly report they issued (November 2014) Kensington & Chelsea was up 5.3% month-on-month, which on an extrapolation basis would have implied something in the region of 85% annual growth on its way. I didn't notice that being highlighted on this forum. The current report a monthly increase of 3.8% in Brent, so clear evidence that HPI forever and that our Russian billionaires have just moved 3 miles north-west of Chelsea? Personally I don't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 The methodology of the LSL data - a simple mean price average of sales in each borough in each month - means it is a very poor indices to try and extrapolate trends from. In the previous monthly report they issued (November 2014) Kensington & Chelsea was up 5.3% month-on-month, which on an extrapolation basis would have implied something in the region of 85% annual growth on its way. I didn't notice that being highlighted on this forum. The current report a monthly increase of 3.8% in Brent, so clear evidence that HPI forever and that our Russian billionaires have just moved 3 miles north-west of Chelsea? Personally I don't think so. Don't disagree with your point re. LSL but as someone who used to live and work there the idea of Russian billionaires kicking around in Brent is fricking hilarious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samboy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Great, so if one argues that the 7% drop per single month is the confirmation that the 17+ year cycle has turned and we are now beyond the peak and accelerating going down. Then your argument of the past positive performance is irrelevant, and it actually defines the future negative performance. As usually the bubbles around the tops are symmetrical ... http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/hpi/view?from_m=1&from_y=2000&loc_0=Camden&loc_uri_0=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fcamden&m_hpi=1&source=preview_form&to_m=1&to_y=2015 What i am saying is picking one month out is as pathetic as the way the BBC and MSM twist figures to suit their agenda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 (edited) Beware comparing us to Japan and making the assumption that the bear market that happened there will happen here.Indeed.It should be recognised though that total UK debt relative to GDP is not that much different to Japan's which has been the same order of magnitude for decades. Some would say that Japan has managed reasonably well since the start of their economic problems. During the same period all that those running the UK's economy have demonstrated is their self serving ineptitude and their lack of imagination in running the UK's economy. Their inability to envisage any alternative to crazy house prices is ample proof. The UK's economic outcome could turn out to be far worse than Japan's. Edited February 15, 2015 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Indeed. It should be recognised though that total UK debt relative to GDP is not that much different to Japan's which has been the same order of magnitude for decades. Some would say that Japan has managed reasonably well since the start of their economic problems. During the same period all that those running the UK's economy have demonstrated is their self serving ineptitude and their lack of imagination in running the UK's economy. Their inability to envisage any alternative to crazy house prices is ample proof. The UK's economic outcome could turn out to be far worse than Japan's. Spot on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted February 15, 2015 Author Share Posted February 15, 2015 What i am saying is picking one month out is as pathetic as the way the BBC and MSM twist figures to suit their agenda. I already gave you LR data for Camden which are 3 months old If you wish to research history of London crash come back in 12 months and check the LR data again ... however I am not a historian .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samboy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I already gave you LR data for Camden which are 3 months old If you wish to research history of London crash come back in 12 months and check the LR data again ... however I am not a historian .... I hope you are correct, just as of now a few £1 million plus houses still above or reverting back to last years prices isnt a crash in my mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 I hope you are correct, just as of now a few £1 million plus houses still above or reverting back to last years prices isnt a crash in my mind. From a acorn grows a mighty oak ,it`s just as much a sentiment game on the way down as it is on the way up it could well be a bit more than just the beginning now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samboy Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 From a acorn grows a mighty oak ,it`s just as much a sentiment game on the way down as it is on the way up it could well be a bit more than just the beginning now But most acorns don't grow into "Mighty Oaks". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Asking 80% above 2007 prices was obviously a little too ambitious for this property despite the stunning architecture and superb condition. A bargain now, surely? http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49614425.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Asking 80% above 2007 prices was obviously a little too ambitious for this property despite the stunning architecture and superb condition. A bargain now, surely? http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49614425.html Crazy. London has a LONG way to fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Asking 80% above 2007 prices was obviously a little too ambitious for this property despite the stunning architecture and superb condition. A bargain now, surely? I read somewhere that after a bubble bursts, people report that it felt as though they were living in some kind of surreal dream world during the height of the madness. I'd say this vendor is in that state now, possibly bolstered with a crack pipe and a solid supply of angel dust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Asking 80% above 2007 prices was obviously a little too ambitious for this property despite the stunning architecture and superb condition. A bargain now, surely? http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49614425.html Not value but heading in the right direction ,still a way to go though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Shhhhhhhhhhh...dont tell anyone http://news.sky.com/story/1428319/cbi-upgrades-economic-growth-forecast-for-2015 "Even with the London housing bubble collapsing ? Is there an election coming ?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 (edited) Crazy. London has a LONG way to fall. That is not real London....it is boring suburbia, looks like a typical ex LA house to me....not that there is anything wrong with that, just the price is wrong...anyone buying that deserves all that they get, will be looking at it for a long time....laughable. Edited February 16, 2015 by winkie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 (edited) Shhhhhhhhhhh...dont tell anyone http://news.sky.com/story/1428319/cbi-upgrades-economic-growth-forecast-for-2015 "Even with the London housing bubble collapsing ? Is there an election coming ?" Is it time for an old classic Edited February 16, 2015 by long time lurking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dothemaths Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Crazy. London has a LONG way to fall. Prime London is another planet I just saw this documentary about Mayfair - now even high end luxury shops can no longer afford rents there unless they are part of a global luxury multinational. Welcome to Mayfair http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00cktq4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Prime London is another planet I just saw this documentary about Mayfair - now even high end luxury shops can no longer afford rents there unless they are part of a global luxury multinational. Welcome to Mayfair http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00cktq4 Does that mean non London consumers are subsidising London shops? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Does that mean non London consumers are subsidising London shops? The most telling comment in the whole programme was a taylor saying that the global brands had to be seen to have a London address, so the money the shop is earning is irrelevant. If that is true, then the answer to your question is; yes, consumer spending in more profitable shops and online sales are subsidising the rents and London retail space is increasingly seen as a marketing tool as much as a revenue stream for global brands, pricing out independent shops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill D'arblay Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The entire Central London street level will end up like one of these Russian 'luxury' malls which are deserted and manned by bored looking skinny girls and nasty looking security guards. London is eating itself. No loss to me - I always hated London, even when it was full of 'chirpy cockneys'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WatchingFromTheHills Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I, on the other hand, like London, especially Pearly Kings and Queens. Which is why I'm encouraged by the piece in the Guardian on the latest research from Haart which shows an actual drop in prices in the capital. http://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2015/feb/16/conflicting-uk-house-price-data-two-tier-market-london However, I can't find the original research anywhere online, which is a shame because I'd like to memorise the stats and quote them back to various estate agents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 http://www.financialreporter.co.uk/finance-news/london-prices-flat-line-for-first-time-since-crash.html London’s property prices show an unprecedented 0% annual growth in January 2015, which is a reflection of the current lack of affordable homes in London according to estate agents Haart. http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=pf4o8lhp&headline=China_Home_Prices_Fall_In_January Home prices in majority of the Chinese cities dropped in January, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday. Prices of new houses dropped month-on-month in 64 of the 70 cities surveyed by the statistical office. Prices rose in two cities but remained flat in four cities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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